What if the GOP split into three parties?

[Tokora]

Anyone who pays attention to US politics know that moderates and trumpists are fighting for the face of the Republican party with threats to otherwise leave, though trumpist dominance is the most likely outcome. If both sides make good on their threats and form two new parties with the Patriot party housing die hard Trump loyalists and Q-anon fanatics, the Lincoln party housing center-right pro-democracy moderates, and what's left of the GOP housing opportunists who oppose enfranchisement but see Trump as too much of a liability.

Besides Democrats having an advantage before the next election shifts the numbers, what is likely to happen from this split?

[Greater Cesnica]

Well it would be two parties that come out of the GOP civil war really. The result? Further partisan tensions that stretch the fabric of American society thinner and thinner.

[Ethel mermania]

The democrat party needs to go through the same split, the progressive intellectuals and the more conservative union based portion of the party.

[Kazarogkai]

The democrat party needs to go through the same split, the progressive intellectuals and the more conservative union based portion of the party.

Your forgetting the Clintonian corporatists. Aka Blue Reaganite wing of the part. I would argue there is far more at odds between them and the progressive than the Unionist and Progressives to be honest.

[Alcala-Cordel]

That would be pretty funny.

[Ethel mermania]

The democrat party needs to go through the same split, the progressive intellectuals and the more conservative union based portion of the party.

Your forgetting the Clintonian corporatists. Aka Blue Reaganite wing of the part. I would argue there is far more at odds between them and the progressive than the Unionist and Progressives to be honest.

Clinton was a little too free tradie for the unions, but the unions more or less approved of bill. I just don't see the party splitting into 3.

[The Lone Alliance]

What's far more likely going to happen is the Lincoln project Neocons are going to join the Democratic party causing the Democratic party to turn into a party of white collar corporatism and middle to upper middle class social issues voters.

The Republican party depending on branding can either continue trying to mender along trying to regain the 90s fury, but in the aftermath of COVID I don't see "Government small enough to drown in a bathtub" working anymore, so what's likely to happen is they're going to have no choice but to continue the Trump poaching of the Conservative Unionist Democrats, but even that might not be enough to save them, it's possible that Democratic failures in the next few years will result in a weaning away from the middle class subrubia voters, who are the most swing voters in the country.

[Chia Dal]

Anyone who pays attention to US politics know that moderates and trumpists are fighting for the face of the Republican party with threats to otherwise leave, though trumpist dominance is the most likely outcome. If both sides make good on their threats and form two new parties with the Patriot party housing die hard Trump loyalists and Q-anon fanatics, the Lincoln party housing center-right pro-democracy moderates, and what's left of the GOP housing opportunists who oppose enfranchisement but see Trump as too much of a liability.

Besides Democrats having an advantage before the next election shifts the numbers, what is likely to happen from this split?

You should make a poll. The Democratic Party are in the same vote because of the Progressives and the moderates in the party.

[Vasilinople]

Three parties? Highly unlikely. But I could see the GOP dividing into two between the anti-Trump and pro-Trump factions. The anti-Trump faction would be basically the moderates, neo-conservatives, and classical liberals who may align with the Democrats to keep the pro-Trump faction from regaining power (in the process forever abandoning the traditional GOP). The pro-Trump party that is left would be the right-wing populist, nationalist, and hard conservative groups that still view Trump as a winning force (ignoring he lost the popular vote twice) and will defend him to the death, almost reaching a cult of personality.

This division will basically guarantee Democratic control of the federal government until a realigning takes place, which happens about every 40 years or so (the last one in the 1980s with the "Reagan Democrats", so we are due for one). But even then I find it hard to believe that a pro-Trump GOP would be able to win any sort of elections for president since they are not willing to compromise with anyone to reach a more middle ground, where many voters are. The end result is either the Republican Party repeats the 1933-1953 period where it cannot win in presidential elections but might be able to take control of one or both houses of Congress, or the pro-Trump faction is forced from power and the traditional Republicans retake control. I would surmise that when Trump dies his faction will mostly die with him.

[Sundiata]

The Republican Party doesn't really have a different position on policy than it ever has. The only distinction between the Republican Party of today and the Republican Party of the past is a sycophantic level of attachment to Donald J. Trump.

The Democratic Party on the other hand is becoming abnormal to it's typical character. There are Democrats who are so far left that they identify as socialists. It's a shock.

[Bienenhalde]

At this point, I support a GOP civil war to purge the Trumpists. I don't if it hurts the parties electoral prospects. Someone needs to act according to principle and refuse to collaborate with evil.

[Yamation]

As great as it would be to separate the Tumpist from the rest, ultimately it would probably lead to more divide and less accomplishment of what the overall goal is. Unfortunately, it is very hard to get away from the 2 party system, no matter how many have tried so adding another party to the mix would most likely change nothing

[Scalizagasti]

I don't think a three-way split is likely. A two-way split, however, seems more likely.

Either way, I have no complaints if the Trumpists did split away from the establishment GOP. Because of the cursed electoral system America uses we would see Democratic majorities for a decade.

[Cannot think of a name]

One would become dominant and reabsorb the other two over the course of one or two election cycles.

[Neutraligon]

Depends we may see a realignment since the combo of bases in both the dems and reps have not been that sensical. There is no reason why economic and social conservatives need be aligned.

[Stellar Colonies]

1. Republicans / Democrats

2. Trumpist Republicans / 'Moderate' Republicans / 'Moderate' Democrats / Progressive Democrats

3. Trumpists / 'Moderates' / Progressives

4. (Whatever two parties emerge because of the current bipolar-favoring election system)

[United Chinese Communes]

What's far more likely going to happen is the Lincoln project Neocons are going to join the Democratic party causing the Democratic party to turn into a party of white collar corporatism and middle to upper middle class social issues voters.

The Republican party depending on branding can either continue trying to mender along trying to regain the 90s fury, but in the aftermath of COVID I don't see "Government small enough to drown in a bathtub" working anymore, so what's likely to happen is they're going to have no choice but to continue the Trump poaching of the Conservative Unionist Democrats, but even that might not be enough to save them, it's possible that Democratic failures in the next few years will result in a weaning away from the middle class subrubia voters, who are the most swing voters in the country.

I could see three parties emerging from this. The 'moderate' corporatist republican-democrat hybrid, the Trump Party and a new Progressive Party. That would certainly shake things up. It's also interesting to note that 62% of Americans say that a third political party is needed in the US. Perhaps this could establish a new three-party system.

[Glorious Hong Kong]

Radical Trumpists must be expelled from the GOP and radical wokists must be expelled from the Democratic Party. De-register the hardliners and remove the whip from under their feet.

[Dresderstan]

If the GOP splits, then the Dems need a split, perfectly balanced as all things should be.

[Major-Tom]

It probably won't. The Trump wing of the GOP has effectively won. Once McConnell is out of his leadership position, we'll really see the new wing solidify itself.

[Adamede]

They would all lose any form of political relevance.

The US political system has been a two party one for nearly its entire existence. One party flaking party isn’t going to change that.

[Garkland]

They would all lose any form of political relevance.

The US political system has been a two party one for nearly its entire existence. One party flaking party isn’t going to change that.

Then again the current situation reminds me of what became of the Whigs, as they were split on an issue and lost relevancy. I think if the GOP splits it will be better for all of us. People won't have to associate with such a broad party that may contain extremists they disagree with. The third-party can actually be a challenge and threat to other parties and gain strength. I predict in the next decade or two we will have a third-party candidate that will win the white house. It seems very likely.

[Dresderstan]

They would all lose any form of political relevance.

The US political system has been a two party one for nearly its entire existence. One party flaking party isn’t going to change that.

Then again the current situation reminds me of what became of the Whigs, as they were split on an issue and lost relevancy. I think if the GOP splits it will be better for all of us. People won't have to associate with such a broad party that may contain extremists they disagree with. The third-party can actually be a challenge and threat to other parties and gain strength. I predict in the next decade or two we will have a third-party candidate that will win the white house. It seems very likely.

They'll just get replaced by another party, if the GOP does go the way of the Whigs, guess what the Whigs were replaced by the GOP and in turn they would get replaced. There won't be a third party unfortunately, it'd just be a continuation of a bankrupt two-party duopoly system.

[Giovenith]

It would be political suicide for them and essentially hand the United States over to the Democrats for a large part of the foreseeable future.

Not that I'd complain too much about it, though nobody wants an unchallenged political force.

[Dresderstan]

It would be political suicide for them and essentially hand the United States over to the Democrats for a large part of the foreseeable future.

Not that I'd complain too much about it, though nobody wants an unchallenged political force.

A one party state is worse than a two party state, but a two party state is worse than a three or more party state.