American Politics IV: 1400 Reasons Why(A Stimulus Serial)

[The Black Forrest]

Ifreann had a better idea: means testing. Owner-occupiers have a significant asset, and even if they have no other more-liquid assets they could take a second mortgage to get by. However, this is still something that Congress would have to do, and Biden shouldn't try to bolt it on.

They simply should not means test it or phase it out because that misses the point of "stimulus" and instead confuses it for relief.

Either we want people to buy stuff, or not.

Indeed. If I have to take a second mortgage to get by; I sure as hell am not going to be buying much.

[Caninope]

They simply should not means test it or phase it out because that misses the point of "stimulus" and instead confuses it for relief.

Either we want people to buy stuff, or not.

Indeed. If I have to take a second mortgage to get by; I sure as hell am not going to be buying much.

We're getting the "wires" crossed for "relief" and "stimulus".

Either it's relief (in which case, give me the student loan forgiveness while we're at it) or it's stimulus (in which case don't phase it out). Instead we're stuck in a libertine moralism where the Democrats can't stand to just give things out because the "wrong" person might get something (a "rich" person) and the Republicans can't stand to just give things out because the "wrong" person might get something (someone who chooses not to work as much as they could).

[San Lumen]

https://news.yahoo.com/ex-rep-kate-knut ... SQLej4cyf4

In what is likely to be a very contentious election former State Rep Kate Knuth has announced she will run for Mayor of Minneapolis against Incumbent mayor Jacob Frey. The November will likely be very competitive as Frey has received much backlash for his handling of the Floyd riots last year.

[A-Series-Of-Tubes]

Ifreann had a better idea: means testing. Owner-occupiers have a significant asset, and even if they have no other more-liquid assets they could take a second mortgage to get by. However, this is still something that Congress would have to do, and Biden shouldn't try to bolt it on.

They simply should not means test it or phase it out because that misses the point of "stimulus" and instead confuses it for relief.

Either we want people to buy stuff, or not.

It can be both. Personally I'd prioritize people not losing their homes over stimulating the economy. And if you have x amount of money for stimulus, the poorer the people you give it to the better, because you know they'll spend it.

[Major-Tom]

https://news.yahoo.com/ex-rep-kate-knuth-jumps-120043577.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAACSrjBrF7VAyRvME4CBnUKa1K_BQh5NAH5X7cvoDSz3NcsVHLEHgMjQ0csYBwRAdEFRat5pF6nYwEl_OMx0fcE04qo8s-8oyKvLkykKneL96G0-YdyW1Y8uOeJa6ozBs2ieQfIUKs5eKpWn5LEqov-V3CQ26aiJ1oNSQLej4cyf4

In what is likely to be a very contentious election former State Rep Kate Knuth has announced she will run for Mayor of Minneapolis against Incumbent mayor Jacob Frey. The November will likely be very competitive as Frey has received much backlash for his handling of the Floyd riots last year.

Frey always looked inauthentic at best in how he handled those riots. Then again, I don't really know how you productively deal with that without pissing some large group of people off. He didn't really have any good options, but that doesn't mean he couldn't have handled the optics better.

Edit: What a dumb challenger, though. "Replace MPD with a public safety department." So, replace the MPD with...another MPD?

[Caninope]

They simply should not means test it or phase it out because that misses the point of "stimulus" and instead confuses it for relief.

Either we want people to buy stuff, or not.

It can be both. Personally I'd prioritize people not losing their homes over stimulating the economy. And if you have x amount of money for stimulus, the poorer the people you give it to the better, because you know they'll spend it.

I'm not sure about the latter, actually. Americans have been progressively deleveraging so it's not immediately clear that's going to be the case, and I'm not familiar enough with the existing literature on household finance to have a strong prior on whether that's actually true or not.

But if you want to prioritize people not losing their homes, then the focus needs to be on relief which happens to be an all the time problem. Unemployed people becoming homeless won't stop when the unemployment rate is back below 5%.

[A-Series-Of-Tubes]

Indeed. If I have to take a second mortgage to get by; I sure as hell am not going to be buying much.

We're getting the "wires" crossed for "relief" and "stimulus".

Either it's relief (in which case, give me the student loan forgiveness while we're at it)

Student loan forgiveness is a waste of money, as stimulus. And not that good as relief. All you need is an interest and payments freeze.

or it's stimulus (in which case don't phase it out).

What sense is there in giving $1400 to a millionaire? That's rubbish stimulus, unless you consider stock market investment to be "stimulus".

Instead we're stuck in a libertine moralism where the Democrats can't stand to just give things out because the "wrong" person might get something (a "rich" person) and the Republicans can't stand to just give things out because the "wrong" person might get something (someone who chooses not to work as much as they could).

You'd prefer to give the same to everyone because simple looks like fair. Regardless of whether it's even optimally effective as stimulus.

[A-Series-Of-Tubes]

It can be both. Personally I'd prioritize people not losing their homes over stimulating the economy. And if you have x amount of money for stimulus, the poorer the people you give it to the better, because you know they'll spend it.

I'm not sure about the latter, actually. Americans have been progressively deleveraging so it's not immediately clear that's going to be the case, and I'm not familiar enough with the existing literature on household finance to have a strong prior on whether that's actually true or not.

But if you want to prioritize people not losing their homes, then the focus needs to be on relief which happens to be an all the time problem. Unemployed people becoming homeless won't stop when the unemployment rate is back below 5%.

The poor are not going to go hungry to deleverage. The poor are going to spend on things they need, whereas the rich are less likely to do that. Your "casting doubt" aside ...

Bigger and longer-term problems are not going to be solved by this amount of money as a one-off. If capping (or rolling-off) payments best serves the purpose of stimulus, then you don't have a leg to stand on proposing uncapped because it will less effectively serve the purpose of relief.

It's like you heard "second mortgage" and went into fight mode!

[San Lumen]

https://news.yahoo.com/ex-rep-kate-knuth-jumps-120043577.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAACSrjBrF7VAyRvME4CBnUKa1K_BQh5NAH5X7cvoDSz3NcsVHLEHgMjQ0csYBwRAdEFRat5pF6nYwEl_OMx0fcE04qo8s-8oyKvLkykKneL96G0-YdyW1Y8uOeJa6ozBs2ieQfIUKs5eKpWn5LEqov-V3CQ26aiJ1oNSQLej4cyf4

In what is likely to be a very contentious election former State Rep Kate Knuth has announced she will run for Mayor of Minneapolis against Incumbent mayor Jacob Frey. The November will likely be very competitive as Frey has received much backlash for his handling of the Floyd riots last year.

Frey always looked inauthentic at best in how he handled those riots. Then again, I don't really know how you productively deal with that without pissing some large group of people off. He didn't really have any good options, but that doesn't mean he couldn't have handled the optics better.

Yeah that's what my friend in Minneapolis told me. I know this is anecdotal but he said he's quite unpopular right now and there is good chance he could lose.

Unike most major cities though the Mayor doesn't have much power. The last Minneapolis mayor to win higher office was Hubert Humphrey who served from 1945 to 1948 and went on to become a senator and then Johnson's Vice President. he narrowly lost the 1968 election to Richard Nixon.

[Major-Tom]

Frey always looked inauthentic at best in how he handled those riots. Then again, I don't really know how you productively deal with that without pissing some large group of people off. He didn't really have any good options, but that doesn't mean he couldn't have handled the optics better.

Yeah that's what my friend in Minneapolis told me. I know this is anecdotal but he said he's quite unpopular right now and there is good chance he could lose.

Unike most major cities though the Mayor doesn't have much power. The last Minneapolis mayor to win higher office was Hubert Humphrey who served from 1945 to 1948 and went on to become a senator and then Johnson's Vice President. he narrowly lost the 1968 election to Richard Nixon.

Probably. His challenger, though, seems to think that replacing MPD with something identical in all but name only somehow solves the complex and messy issue of police reform. I prefer candidates who don't see things in black and white.

[Caninope]

Student loan forgiveness is a waste of money, as stimulus. And not that good as relief. All you need is an interest and payments freeze.

I happen to like it because I think that reducing indebtedness of younger generations could spur good things like increased homeownership.

What sense is there in giving $1400 to a millionaire? That's rubbish stimulus, unless you consider stock market investment to be "stimulus".

Found a paper I was looking for on this topic: Baugh et. al in the American Economic Review Vol. 111, No. 1 find that although less-liquid (often poorer) households were more likely to spend unexpected tax refunds, the effect still exists for more liquid households as well.

You'd prefer to give the same to everyone because simple looks like fair. Regardless of whether it's even optimally effective as stimulus.

That's not actually why, but go off, I guess.

[San Lumen]

Yeah that's what my friend in Minneapolis told me. I know this is anecdotal but he said he's quite unpopular right now and there is good chance he could lose.

Unike most major cities though the Mayor doesn't have much power. The last Minneapolis mayor to win higher office was Hubert Humphrey who served from 1945 to 1948 and went on to become a senator and then Johnson's Vice President. he narrowly lost the 1968 election to Richard Nixon.

Probably. His challenger, though, seems to think that replacing MPD with something identical in all but name only somehow solves the complex and messy issue of police reform. I prefer candidates who don't see things in black and white.

Knuth thinks this? Your from Minneapolis I gather if you don't mind me asking?

[Caninope]

I'm not sure about the latter, actually. Americans have been progressively deleveraging so it's not immediately clear that's going to be the case, and I'm not familiar enough with the existing literature on household finance to have a strong prior on whether that's actually true or not.

But if you want to prioritize people not losing their homes, then the focus needs to be on relief which happens to be an all the time problem. Unemployed people becoming homeless won't stop when the unemployment rate is back below 5%.

The poor are not going to go hungry to deleverage. The poor are going to spend on things they need, whereas the rich are less likely to do that. Your "casting doubt" aside ...

Bigger and longer-term problems are not going to be solved by this amount of money as a one-off. If capping (or rolling-off) payments best serves the purpose of stimulus, then you don't have a leg to stand on proposing uncapped because it will less effectively serve the purpose of relief.

It's like you heard "second mortgage" and went into fight mode!

Referencing Baugh et. al again (from earlier in the AER), they find that households with low account balances spend between 20 and 30% of unexpected refunds within 4 months of getting it; for high account balance households, that looks like be around 8-15%. While it's certainly lower, it's consistent with the idea that the poorest among us are likely still using some of the money to deleverage and save up.

This is assuming that the data from tax refunds will induce similar behavior to stimulus, but I think that's a reasonable assumption.

As it happens though, I didn't go into "fight" mode because I said second mortgage; I'm commenting on this because I'm in a PhD in economics (although my specialty is mechanism design and nonparametric econometrics), so I like to imagine I have a decent grasp of things.

[Umeria]

What sense is there in giving $1400 to a millionaire? That's rubbish stimulus, unless you consider stock market investment to be "stimulus".

I'd rather have 1000 people get the check who don't need it, than have 1 person not get the check who needs it.

[Kowani]

The GOP plans to make senate clerks read the whole covid relief bill aloud-a process expected to take at least 10 hours-before voting even begins, before forcing a massive number of amendments, potentially dragging the debate on 'till saturday

[Luziyca]

Trump is weighing a 2024 presidential run-without Mike Pence

I'm predicting he's going to choose Marjorie Taylor Greene to be his VP. I'm sure of it.

Either that or Rudy Giuliani.

[San Lumen]

Trump is weighing a 2024 presidential run-without Mike Pence

I'm predicting he's going to choose Marjorie Taylor Greene to be his VP. I'm sure of it.

Either that or Rudy Giuliani.

Picking her as VP would be utterly disastrous for his candidacy.

[The Reformed American Republic]

Why, Trumo, why!?!?

typos
the bane of my existence

Why, we're all entitled to typos once in a whilw.

[Window Land]

Probably. His challenger, though, seems to think that replacing MPD with something identical in all but name only somehow solves the complex and messy issue of police reform. I prefer candidates who don't see things in black and white.

Knuth thinks this? Your from Minneapolis I gather if you don't mind me asking?

As a little background on what the heck they're talking about the answer was last summer the minneapolis city council promised to abolish the police force. They quickly then hit a snag because they can't just get rid of the police, especially in a crime wave. The current plan is to merge all of minneapolis's public safety departments including the police into one single department, the idea being to increase oversight as well as coordination between departments and help people get the help they actually need. However, Mayor Frey opposes this because it takes away the mayor's authority over the police, and he isn't happy about that.

[Necroghastia]

I'm predicting he's going to choose Marjorie Taylor Greene to be his VP. I'm sure of it.

Either that or Rudy Giuliani.

Picking her as VP would be utterly disastrous for his candidacy.

how do you have so much faith in statements like this but so little in like, the efficacy of covid lockdowns and shit

[Kowani]

Facebook ends ban on political advertising

[Luziyca]

I'm predicting he's going to choose Marjorie Taylor Greene to be his VP. I'm sure of it.

Either that or Rudy Giuliani.

Picking her as VP would be utterly disastrous for his candidacy.

I'm not entirely sure if it would be disastrous. Sure, he'd lose a ton of swing voters if he chose her, but given how many people have thought that X will be the end of Trump and yet he managed to stay around, I'm not entirely sure if that'll stop him, or if it'll greatly affect his chances.

[San Lumen]

Picking her as VP would be utterly disastrous for his candidacy.

I'm not entirely sure if it would be disastrous. Sure, he'd lose a ton of swing voters if he chose her, but given how many people have thought that X will be the end of Trump and yet he managed to stay around, I'm not entirely sure if that'll stop him, or if it'll greatly affect his chances.

Given how insane she is it absolutely would affect his chances. It would be like what Palin did to McCain but far worse.

[Zurkerx]

Picking her as VP would be utterly disastrous for his candidacy.

I'm not entirely sure if it would be disastrous. Sure, he'd lose a ton of swing voters if he chose her, but given how many people have thought that X will be the end of Trump and yet he managed to stay around, I'm not entirely sure if that'll stop him, or if it'll greatly affect his chances.

Regardless, Trump will go with someone that's most likely going to be the loyalist- and someone that will lick his boot and only say yes. Given a majority of these type of choices are nut cases, I suspect it will only help with Trump Supporters and not key voters.

Then again, if the GOP does succeed in getting many of their voting restrictions passed, Trump could barely sneak a second term.

[San Lumen]

I'm not entirely sure if it would be disastrous. Sure, he'd lose a ton of swing voters if he chose her, but given how many people have thought that X will be the end of Trump and yet he managed to stay around, I'm not entirely sure if that'll stop him, or if it'll greatly affect his chances.

Regardless, Trump will go with someone that's most likely going to be the loyalist- and someone that will lick his boot and only say yes. Given a majority of these type of choices are nut cases, I suspect it will only help with Trump Supporters and not key voters.

Then again, if the GOP does succeed in getting many of their voting restrictions passed, Trump could barely sneak a second term.

Making it harder to vote tends to make people only more determined to do so. There is is only so much you can do.