American Politics IV: 1400 Reasons Why(A Stimulus Serial)

[Umeria]

and the primary challenger would lose the general election. Why throw away a senate seat and potentially the majority in the Senate? What makes you think someone further to the left is going to win in one of the reddest states in the nation if a progressive nominee last year only get 27 percent of the vote in a general election?

For the hundred millionth time, I don't think a progressive has much of a chance of winning a WV general. Think about it this way: Biden threatening to replace Manchin with a Republican if Manchin doesn't vote for the $15 minimum wage. Manchin doesn't want to be replaced by a Republican, so he'll vote for the $15 minimum wage.

What makes you think Biden isn't doing that?

The fact that Manchin still says he's opposed to the $15 minimum wage.

What do you mean by carrot and a stick?

You haven't heard of it? Also known as the good cop bad cop approach.

Does Biden really strike you as an aspiring Pol Pot?

I mean that's how a lot of Republicans see him lol

[The Marlborough]

If Biden threatened Manchin with being replaced by a Republican, Manchin would just switch parties.

[San Lumen]

and the primary challenger would lose the general election. Why throw away a senate seat and potentially the majority in the Senate? What makes you think someone further to the left is going to win in one of the reddest states in the nation if a progressive nominee last year only get 27 percent of the vote in a general election?

For the hundred millionth time, I don't think a progressive has much of a chance of winning a WV general. Think about it this way: Biden threatening to replace Manchin with a Republican if Manchin doesn't vote for the $15 minimum wage. Manchin doesn't want to be replaced by a Republican, so he'll vote for the $15 minimum wage.

What makes you think Biden isn't doing that?

The fact that Manchin still says he's opposed to the $15 minimum wage.

What do you mean by carrot and a stick?

You haven't heard of it? Also known as the good cop bad cop approach.

Does Biden really strike you as an aspiring Pol Pot?

I mean that's how a lot of Republicans see him lol

So why threaten him with a primary challenger that if successful is guaranteed to lose the general? Is that going to get you a 15 dollar minimum wage? No.

I fail to ascertain what your goal is here.

[The Marlborough]

Just toss some pork barrels to WV, it's more likely to work and less damaging politically.

[Senkaku]

That said, primarying him is such a stupid fucking idea. Who else is going to hold that seat, pray tell? I'd certainly much rather try the pork approach, which might work, than some farcical attempt to primary him and replace him with someone further left... in West Virginia.

Ngl this is a based take and a welcome surprise.

I don't know why it's a surprise, I'm not an idiot and I love any excuse for the state to splash out money on renewable energy projects and other big green infrastructure efforts. The only people frothing at the mouth about primarying Manchin are people with incredibly misguided ideas about what pork and political corruption consist of, or people who think they're going to convince all the ex-coal miners to join the proletarian revolution and re-enact Blair Mountain, and both types are completely out of touch with reality.

[Quanzo]

They probably still would have as you’d still need the seats from georgia to get a majority.

No if Collins had lost Democrats would have had 50 seats.

no they would have 49

[Odreria]

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/540979-pelosi-allegations-against-cuomo-credible

Pelosi says allegations against Cuomo are credible and deserve an Independent investigation.

Life comes at you fast

[The Marlborough]

Ngl this is a based take and a welcome surprise.

I don't know why it's a surprise, I'm not an idiot and I love any excuse for the state to splash out money on renewable energy projects and other big green infrastructure efforts. The only people frothing at the mouth about primarying Manchin are people with incredibly misguided ideas about what pork and political corruption consist of, or people who think they're going to convince all the ex-coal miners to join the proletarian revolution and re-enact Blair Mountain, and both types are completely out of touch with reality.

I didn't take you for the sort who would be okay with a bit of corruption to get things done, that's why.

[Senkaku]

and the primary challenger would lose the general election. Why throw away a senate seat and potentially the majority in the Senate? What makes you think someone further to the left is going to win in one of the reddest states in the nation if a progressive nominee last year only get 27 percent of the vote in a general election?

For the hundred millionth time, I don't think a progressive has much of a chance of winning a WV general. Think about it this way: Biden threatening to replace Manchin with a Republican if Manchin doesn't vote for the $15 minimum wage. Manchin doesn't want to be replaced by a Republican, so he'll vote for the $15 minimum wage.

Or he'll say "fuck you too," retire to live out his last years in comfortable obscurity, and watch the Biden administration implode.

What do you mean by carrot and a stick?

You haven't heard of it? Also known as the good cop bad cop approach.

Except in this analogy, the "bad cop" would be threatening to kill the perp and himself if the perp didn't talk. You're making a threat that, if carried out, will necessarily realize the outcome you're hoping to avoid by making the threat. It's an ass-backwards and completely idiotic approach to getting what you want.

Does Biden really strike you as an aspiring Pol Pot?

I mean that's how a lot of Republicans see him lol

And do you consider their judgement to be good or reality-based? Why are we even talking about this?

[Umeria]

So why threaten him with a primary challenger that if successful is guaranteed to lose the general? Is that going to get you a 15 dollar minimum wage? No.

If Manchin caves and votes for the $15 minimum wage then we will absolutely get a $15 minimum wage.

I fail to ascertain what your goal is here.

A $15 minimum wage.

If Biden threatened Manchin with being replaced by a Republican, Manchin would just switch parties.

If he was willing to go Republican he would have done so by now. But maybe you're right! Only one way to find out

I didn't take you for the sort who would be okay with a bit of corruption to get things done.

There's already quite a bit of corruption in DC, no use denying it although long term I'd like to fight it.

[San Lumen]

So why threaten him with a primary challenger that if successful is guaranteed to lose the general? Is that going to get you a 15 dollar minimum wage? No.

If Manchin caves and votes for the $15 minimum wage then we will absolutely get a $15 minimum wage.

I fail to ascertain what your goal is here.

A $15 minimum wage.

If Biden threatened Manchin with being replaced by a Republican, Manchin would just switch parties.

If he was willing to go Republican he would have done so by now. But maybe you're right! Only one way to find out

I didn't take you for the sort who would be okay with a bit of corruption to get things done.

There's already quite a bit of corruption in DC, no use denying it although long term I'd like to fight it.

and if he switches parties Democrats lose the majority and Biden gets nothing done therefore what do you gain? Absolutely nothing.

[Senkaku]

I don't know why it's a surprise, I'm not an idiot and I love any excuse for the state to splash out money on renewable energy projects and other big green infrastructure efforts. The only people frothing at the mouth about primarying Manchin are people with incredibly misguided ideas about what pork and political corruption consist of, or people who think they're going to convince all the ex-coal miners to join the proletarian revolution and re-enact Blair Mountain, and both types are completely out of touch with reality.

I didn't take you for the sort who would be okay with a bit of corruption to get things done, that's why.

I think it's that I don't see giving West Virginia a bunch of money to build solar farms or something as "corruption." Maybe the money could be slightly better spent building them in California or Kansas instead, from an efficiency perspective, but if building up an unusual amount of capacity in WV is what it takes to get a national infrastructure effort off the ground, I'm fine with that, because it needs to be happening yesterday. If you give me a choice between "public works program" and "no public works program," I'm going to pick the former, even if it means the one in Western WA might be a little smaller because some federal money has to be diverted to West Virginia.

If the pitch was "give Joe Manchin $200M in unmarked bearer bonds," I'd feel differently about it.

[Umeria]

Or he'll say "fuck you too," retire to live out his last years in comfortable obscurity, and watch the Biden administration implode.

He's already doing that.

Except in this analogy, the "bad cop" would be threatening to kill the perp and himself if the perp didn't talk. You're making a threat that, if carried out, will necessarily realize the outcome you're hoping to avoid by making the threat. It's an ass-backwards and completely idiotic approach to getting what you want.

It won't be carried out until 2024, we have time to pick up a few more senate seats before then.

And do you consider their judgement to be good or reality-based? Why are we even talking about this?

Of course not, I was just making a joke.

[Proctopeo]

Just toss some pork barrels to WV, it's more likely to work and less damaging politically.

I suspect Biden might be more likely to just tell coal miners to learn to code again.

[Umeria]

and if he switches parties Democrats lose the majority and Biden gets nothing done therefore what do you gain? Absolutely nothing.

Why are you always assuming the worst possible outcome?

[San Lumen]

and if he switches parties Democrats lose the majority and Biden gets nothing done therefore what do you gain? Absolutely nothing.

Why are you always assuming the worst possible outcome?

why even risk it? Why launch a primary four years from now and have Biden endorse them and the seat is a guaranteed loss?

[Senkaku]

Just toss some pork barrels to WV, it's more likely to work and less damaging politically.

I suspect Biden might be more likely to just tell coal miners to learn to code again.

The sad thing is, a lot of cutting-edge mining and drilling technology and expertise is becoming super, super useful for new models of geothermal power. Our government is just totally ignoring the possibility of investing in more research, which could speed up the development of geothermal tech to the point that a lot of ex-fossil fuel industry workers (especially in the fracking business, but also in sectors like mining) could be making important contributions to decarbonization in well-paying jobs in their own communities.

But no, because of tech's stranglehold over the Democratic Party's donor base and its "thinkers" (such as they are), we just tell them "learn to code lmao" and ignore the problem.

Or he'll say "fuck you too," retire to live out his last years in comfortable obscurity, and watch the Biden administration implode.

He's already doing that.

So what makes you think he would stop if you pressed harder on the same stupid threat?

Insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results. Threatening him clearly doesn't work, because the administration and the party have no credible threats to offer him that wouldn't result in even higher (and unacceptable) costs for themselves. It's time to throw some infrastructure money at WV and see if it works. Worst case, we just make a bunch of people's lives in West Virginia better for no reason.

Except in this analogy, the "bad cop" would be threatening to kill the perp and himself if the perp didn't talk. You're making a threat that, if carried out, will necessarily realize the outcome you're hoping to avoid by making the threat. It's an ass-backwards and completely idiotic approach to getting what you want.

It won't be carried out until 2024, we have time to pick up a few more senate seats before then.

In which case, you need to be focused on making sure we can pick those seats up so we're in a position to make this threat credibly. Otherwise, this is all just kabuki.

[The Marlborough]

I didn't take you for the sort who would be okay with a bit of corruption to get things done, that's why.

I think it's that I don't see giving West Virginia a bunch of money to build solar farms or something as "corruption." Maybe the money could be slightly better spent building them in California or Kansas instead, from an efficiency perspective, but if building up an unusual amount of capacity in WV is what it takes to get a national infrastructure effort off the ground, I'm fine with that, because it needs to be happening yesterday. If you give me a choice between "public works program" and "no public works program," I'm going to pick the former, even if it means the one in Western WA might be a little smaller because some federal money has to be diverted to West Virginia.

If the pitch was "give Joe Manchin $200M in unmarked bearer bonds," I'd feel differently about it.

Generally speaking, pork barrels are seen as a form of corruption especially when meant to benefit a state that, as you said, might not be the best fit for said money/development. But yes I generally agree with this take and the one about investing in new developments in geothermal power to benefit fracking and coal mining workers.

[Umeria]

why even risk it?

If you don't, you'll never get the $15 minimum wage.

So what makes you think he would stop if you pressed harder on the same stupid threat?

Wait we've made this threat before?

Threatening him clearly doesn't work, because the administration and the party have no credible threats to offer him that wouldn't result in even higher (and unacceptable) costs for themselves.

Well yeah, Biden clearly doesn't want to take these risks.

It's time to throw some infrastructure money at WV and see if it works. Worst case, we just make a bunch of people's lives in West Virginia better for no reason.

I agree with you.

In which case, you need to be focused on making sure we can pick those seats up so we're in a position to make this threat credibly. Otherwise, this is all just kabuki.

My strategy is to prove to voters that you're fighting for the things you promised for.

[San Lumen]

why even risk it?

If you don't, you'll never get the $15 minimum wage.

So what makes you think he would stop if you pressed harder on the same stupid threat?

Wait we've made this threat before?

Threatening him clearly doesn't work, because the administration and the party have no credible threats to offer him that wouldn't result in even higher (and unacceptable) costs for themselves.

Well yeah, Biden clearly doesn't want to take these risks.

It's time to throw some infrastructure money at WV and see if it works. Worst case, we just make a bunch of people's lives in West Virginia better for no reason.

I agree with you.

In which case, you need to be focused on making sure we can pick those seats up so we're in a position to make this threat credibly. Otherwise, this is all just kabuki.

My strategy is to prove to voters that you're fighting for the things you promised for.

He doesn't want to risk losing the senate majority and getting nothing done.

[Umeria]

He doesn't want to risk losing the senate majority and getting nothing done.

As opposed to keeping the senate majority and getting nothing done?

[Kowani]

Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) wants to put "god and prayer back in schools"


hm
could've sworn there was a court case about this
anyway, hail Satan

[San Lumen]

He doesn't want to risk losing the senate majority and getting nothing done.

As opposed to keeping the senate majority and getting nothing done?

Do you think Biden is getting any judges confirmed if Republicans control the senate or anything else passed?

[Umeria]

As opposed to keeping the senate majority and getting nothing done?

Do you think Biden is getting any judges confirmed if Republicans control the senate or anything else passed?

Sure. Democrats voted for a lot of Trump's judges.

[San Lumen]

Do you think Biden is getting any judges confirmed if Republicans control the senate or anything else passed?

Sure. Democrats voted for a lot of Trump's judges.

'
You Think McConnell would allow any Biden nominees to come up for a vote?