American Politics IV: 1400 Reasons Why(A Stimulus Serial)

[San Lumen]

Hence might. It depends on how the dice fall.

True, but he should not be underestimated, and Democrats should not fall victim to the incorrect assumption that next election or the election after that is in the bag.

I dont think they will after seeing what happened in 2016. im hoping there is big turnout in off year elections this year and in 2022.

I doubt it. Trump does have a shot at 2024; he should not be underestimated, as that's how he won in the first place.

Yes but if he splits the vote the rest of the GOP then the democrats would win because the most votes wins

are you referring to him creating a third party?

[Major-Tom]

“The country is moving past the Trump Presidency, and the GOP will remain in the wilderness until it does too”: The Wall Street Journal Warns Republicans that Trump Can't Win Another Election.

There is the threat that someone can be Trump-like but more organize and less prone to gaffes but the GOP is in a catch-22 situation: they can't win with Trump but can't win without his supporters at the moment. This, as we all know, has led to the party not just failing to convict a man that cited a sedition/insurrection, but also is tearing the party at it seams.

Trump may not seek re-election, maybe not as a Republican but as a third party candidate to spite the GOP. He will likely go after the party for failing to protect him enough, further dividing the party up.

Might be Democrat domination for the next decade and beyond.

They said the same thing in 2015. Coalitions change, we saw it in 2016 when Trump was able to fully secure the blue-collar white vote for Republicans, and even in 2020 when Trump made some serious inroads into Hispanic and Asian communities nationwide.

As the Dems make substantial gains in the suburbs and in former Republican strongholds, they're hemorrhaging support in areas/neighborhoods that had voted 98-2% for Obama in 2012.

The Republicans still dominated on the lower end of the ballots in 2020, and if the Dems fail to continue the good(ish) work they're doing right now, they may well get crushed in 2022.

[San Lumen]

Might be Democrat domination for the next decade and beyond.

They said the same thing in 2015. Coalitions change, we saw it in 2016 when Trump was able to fully secure the blue-collar white vote for Republicans, and even in 2020 when Trump made some serious inroads into Hispanic and Asian communities nationwide.

As the Dems make substantial gains in the suburbs and in former Republican strongholds, they're hemorrhaging support in areas/neighborhoods that had voted 98-2% for Obama in 2012.

I wouldn't say they are hemorrhaging support. Did Trump make some gains? Yes but it was not substantial.

They will only be crushed in 2022 if people dont get off their butts to vote.

[The Reformed American Republic]

Democrats have the tendency of thinking the next election is in the bag when in actuality they get swiped.

[Thermodolia]

Might be Democrat domination for the next decade and beyond.

They said the same thing in 2015. Coalitions change, we saw it in 2016 when Trump was able to fully secure the blue-collar white vote for Republicans, and even in 2020 when Trump made some serious inroads into Hispanic and Asian communities nationwide.

As the Dems make substantial gains in the suburbs and in former Republican strongholds, they're hemorrhaging support in areas/neighborhoods that had voted 98-2% for Obama in 2012.

The Republicans still dominated on the lower end of the ballots in 2020, and if the Dems fail to continue the good(ish) work they're doing right now, they may well get crushed in 2022.

The only place where the democrats actually gained Down ballot was georgia

[Major-Tom]

They said the same thing in 2015. Coalitions change, we saw it in 2016 when Trump was able to fully secure the blue-collar white vote for Republicans, and even in 2020 when Trump made some serious inroads into Hispanic and Asian communities nationwide.

As the Dems make substantial gains in the suburbs and in former Republican strongholds, they're hemorrhaging support in areas/neighborhoods that had voted 98-2% for Obama in 2012.

I wouldn't say they are hemorrhaging support. Did Trump make some gains? Yes but it was not substantial.

They will only be crushed in 2022 if people dont get off their butts to vote.

It concerns me greatly. These are areas that haven't seen such Republican numbers since the 80s, in Philly, in the Bronx, in parts of South LA, etc etc. When the swing maps show a +15 to +25 swing in our inner cities towards the GOP, I'm inclined to call that a hemorrhage since those areas usually consistently vote 95%+ Democratic.

Maybe it was a one-time thing, Trump was in a unique position. But it's better to be cautious and careful than to assume it was a "one-time thing."

[Thermodolia]

True, but he should not be underestimated, and Democrats should not fall victim to the incorrect assumption that next election or the election after that is in the bag.

I dont think they will after seeing what happened in 2016. im hoping there is big turnout in off year elections this year and in 2022.

Yes but if he splits the vote the rest of the GOP then the democrats would win because the most votes wins

are you referring to him creating a third party?

Yes. If he goes independent then he will split the vote with the rest of the GOP

[Major-Tom]

They said the same thing in 2015. Coalitions change, we saw it in 2016 when Trump was able to fully secure the blue-collar white vote for Republicans, and even in 2020 when Trump made some serious inroads into Hispanic and Asian communities nationwide.

As the Dems make substantial gains in the suburbs and in former Republican strongholds, they're hemorrhaging support in areas/neighborhoods that had voted 98-2% for Obama in 2012.

The Republicans still dominated on the lower end of the ballots in 2020, and if the Dems fail to continue the good(ish) work they're doing right now, they may well get crushed in 2022.

The only place where the democrats actually gained Down ballot was georgia

The Georgia Dems is one of the best state parties I've seen and had the pleasure to collaborate with. I think states like Florida, NC, etc etc, they oughta emulate them a bit more.

[San Lumen]

I wouldn't say they are hemorrhaging support. Did Trump make some gains? Yes but it was not substantial.

They will only be crushed in 2022 if people dont get off their butts to vote.

It concerns me greatly. These are areas that haven't seen such Republican numbers since the 80s, in Philly, in the Bronx, in parts of South LA, etc etc. When the swing maps show a +15 to +25 swing in our inner cities towards the GOP, I'm inclined to call that a hemorrhage since those areas usually consistently vote 95%+ Democratic.

Maybe it was a one-time thing, Trump was in a unique position. But it's better to be cautious and careful than to assume it was a "one-time thing."

I agree its worthy of concern but there tend to be swings towards incumbents especially among certain groups.

[Thermodolia]

I wouldn't say they are hemorrhaging support. Did Trump make some gains? Yes but it was not substantial.

They will only be crushed in 2022 if people dont get off their butts to vote.

It concerns me greatly. These are areas that haven't seen such Republican numbers since the 80s, in Philly, in the Bronx, in parts of South LA, etc etc. When the swing maps show a +15 to +25 swing in our inner cities towards the GOP, I'm inclined to call that a hemorrhage since those areas usually consistently vote 95%+ Democratic.

Maybe it was a one-time thing, Trump was in a unique position. But it's better to be cautious and careful than to assume it was a "one-time thing."

Yes but remember that when Trump wasn’t on the ballot the republicans lost. It happened in Georgia in the runoffs. And it happened in 2018. It might happen again in 2022

[San Lumen]

It concerns me greatly. These are areas that haven't seen such Republican numbers since the 80s, in Philly, in the Bronx, in parts of South LA, etc etc. When the swing maps show a +15 to +25 swing in our inner cities towards the GOP, I'm inclined to call that a hemorrhage since those areas usually consistently vote 95%+ Democratic.

Maybe it was a one-time thing, Trump was in a unique position. But it's better to be cautious and careful than to assume it was a "one-time thing."

Yes but remember that when Trump wasn’t on the ballot the republicans lost. It happened in Georgia in the runoffs. And it happened in 2018. It might happen again in 2022

I hope it does and especially if crazy people like MTG or Lindell are nominated for statewide office.

[Major-Tom]

It concerns me greatly. These are areas that haven't seen such Republican numbers since the 80s, in Philly, in the Bronx, in parts of South LA, etc etc. When the swing maps show a +15 to +25 swing in our inner cities towards the GOP, I'm inclined to call that a hemorrhage since those areas usually consistently vote 95%+ Democratic.

Maybe it was a one-time thing, Trump was in a unique position. But it's better to be cautious and careful than to assume it was a "one-time thing."

Yes but remember that when Trump wasn’t on the ballot the republicans lost. It happened in Georgia in the runoffs. And it happened in 2018. It might happen again in 2022

It depends. The trends of this century make me pessimistic. I don't see a 2010 wipeout in store for the Dems, but with how narrow our margins are in both chambers, we'd be lucky to break even in the Senate and House.

[Thermodolia]

Yes but remember that when Trump wasn’t on the ballot the republicans lost. It happened in Georgia in the runoffs. And it happened in 2018. It might happen again in 2022

I hope it does and especially if crazy people like MTG or Lindell are nominated for statewide office.

MTG isn’t going to run state wide. She’s crazy but she’s not stupid. She changed from the 6th to the 14th because she knew she couldn’t win in the 6th.

She knows she couldn’t win statewide

[Thermodolia]

Yes but remember that when Trump wasn’t on the ballot the republicans lost. It happened in Georgia in the runoffs. And it happened in 2018. It might happen again in 2022

It depends. The trends of this century make me pessimistic. I don't see a 2010 wipeout in store for the Dems, but with how narrow our margins are in both chambers, we'd be lucky to break even in the Senate and House.

Democrats are going to make gains in the senate. That’s pretty much a given at this point.

[Echo Chamber Thought Police]

The only place where the democrats actually gained Down ballot was georgia

The Georgia Dems is one of the best state parties I've seen and had the pleasure to collaborate with. I think states like Florida, NC, etc etc, they oughta emulate them a bit more.

the florida state democrats are one of the most incompetent organisations on the planet

[Major-Tom]

It depends. The trends of this century make me pessimistic. I don't see a 2010 wipeout in store for the Dems, but with how narrow our margins are in both chambers, we'd be lucky to break even in the Senate and House.

Democrats are going to make gains in the senate. That’s pretty much a given at this point.

It's just tough in a midterm year. Unless we can magically keep turnout extraordinarily high and enthusiasm high, I just don't see how. Biden, for instance, is currently far more popular than Congressional Dems and that might hurt us as well.

[San Lumen]

Yes but remember that when Trump wasn’t on the ballot the republicans lost. It happened in Georgia in the runoffs. And it happened in 2018. It might happen again in 2022

It depends. The trends of this century make me pessimistic. I don't see a 2010 wipeout in store for the Dems, but with how narrow our margins are in both chambers, we'd be lucky to break even in the Senate and House.

If Biden is above 50 percent they could make some gains while losing a few seats and retaining a narrow majority. The Senate map doesn't favor Republicans.

I hope it does and especially if crazy people like MTG or Lindell are nominated for statewide office.

MTG isn’t going to run state wide. She’s crazy but she’s not stupid. She changed from the 6th to the 14th because she knew she couldn’t win in the 6th.

She knows she couldn’t win statewide

Why am I hearing talk of her chalking Kemp or Warnock? Amanda Chase is likely to be Republican nominee for Virginia Governor this year. She almost certainly can't win statewide but it doesnt seem to be stopping her.

[Major-Tom]

The Georgia Dems is one of the best state parties I've seen and had the pleasure to collaborate with. I think states like Florida, NC, etc etc, they oughta emulate them a bit more.

the florida state democrats are one of the most incompetent organisations on the planet

They're the worst I've seen.

[Thermodolia]

Democrats are going to make gains in the senate. That’s pretty much a given at this point.

It's just tough in a midterm year. Unless we can magically keep turnout extraordinarily high and enthusiasm high, I just don't see how. Biden, for instance, is currently far more popular than Congressional Dems and that might hurt us as well.

Ya but this isn’t a national election but 50 elections. The democrats running in PA, NC, and GA might have more support than democrats running elsewhere.

Plus you throw in the high possibility of the GOP splitting and the democrats get the senate

[Thermodolia]

It depends. The trends of this century make me pessimistic. I don't see a 2010 wipeout in store for the Dems, but with how narrow our margins are in both chambers, we'd be lucky to break even in the Senate and House.

If Biden is above 50 percent they could make some gains while losing a few seats and retaining a narrow majority. The Senate map doesn't favor Republicans.

MTG isn’t going to run state wide. She’s crazy but she’s not stupid. She changed from the 6th to the 14th because she knew she couldn’t win in the 6th.

She knows she couldn’t win statewide

Why am I hearing talk of her chalking Kemp or Warnock? Amanda Chase is likely to be Republican nominee for Virginia Governor this year. She almost certainly can't win statewide but it doesnt seem to be stopping her.

Because people like to talk about the crazies doing crazy things

[San Lumen]

It's just tough in a midterm year. Unless we can magically keep turnout extraordinarily high and enthusiasm high, I just don't see how. Biden, for instance, is currently far more popular than Congressional Dems and that might hurt us as well.

Ya but this isn’t a national election but 50 elections. The democrats running in PA, NC, and GA might have more support than democrats running elsewhere.

Plus you throw in the high possibility of the GOP splitting and the democrats get the senate

Plus Democrats got an excellent candidate in PA for senate. WI is going to be competitive too in addition to NC. Making gains in the senate is very possible.

https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/po ... r/2705556/
plus NBC is now reporting Brian Sims will indeed seek the PA Lt. Governorship. Democrats could very well hold the PA Gov next year as the GOP don't have many people would could win statewide. Its unlikely their two statewide office holders seek the nod and Toomey has said he won't run.

[Zurkerx]

The Republican Party has morphed into an entirely anti-democratic institution.

This article (an opinion piece I believe) is from December of 2020 but it did do a good job of highlighting the GOP's transformation into an anti-democratic establishment. Of course, I wouldn't go as far as to call them Fascists yet given that word is used liberally, but it clearly shows the GOP is utilizing a 50-State "Southern Strategy"- and how power has consumed them.

[San Lumen]

The Republican Party has morphed into an entirely anti-democratic institution.

This article (an opinion piece I believe) is from December of 2020 but it did do a good job of highlighting the GOP's transformation into an anti-democratic establishment. Of course, I wouldn't go as far as to call them Fascists yet given that word is used liberally, but it clearly shows the GOP is utilizing a 50-State "Southern Strategy"- and how power has consumed them.

Democrats would be wise to adopt a 50 state strategy as well. Biden seems to have endorsed the idea.

[Godular]

The Republican Party has morphed into an entirely anti-democratic institution.

This article (an opinion piece I believe) is from December of 2020 but it did do a good job of highlighting the GOP's transformation into an anti-democratic establishment. Of course, I wouldn't go as far as to call them Fascists yet given that word is used liberally, but it clearly shows the GOP is utilizing a 50-State "Southern Strategy"- and how power has consumed them.

Democrats would be wise to adopt a 50 state strategy as well. Biden seems to have endorsed the idea.

They definitely need to do this. Even if it means that there are democrats that don't necessarily agree on every issue.

[San Lumen]

Democrats would be wise to adopt a 50 state strategy as well. Biden seems to have endorsed the idea.

They definitely need to do this. Even if it means that there are democrats that don't necessarily agree on every issue.

I agree one hundred percent. To win in some stats you need more moderate candidates. It wasn't;t all that long ago Democrats held the governorship of states such as Missouri or Wyoming. They could do it again with the right candidate.