American Politics III: New President, Same Old Country

[Cannot think of a name]

I never said that Republicans haven't, but the more egregious cases in recent history have been done by the Democrats or at least they paved the way. And yeah the GOP is morally bankrupt, hence why it's stupid to open these doors to them. Better for them to abuse the filibuster than allow them a space to push through all of their horrendous shit.

Again, suggesting that these doors are somehow 'closed' to the GOP rather than that they just haven't had the need or inclination to blow them open yet. The only thing that would have changed if Reid had never used the nuclear option is that McConnell would have had more seats to fill when he threw that shit out the window the minute he had the opportunity to stack the Federal bench to a historic degree.

I mean, to borrow a phrase, he was for it before he was against it.

[The Marlborough]

Again, suggesting that these doors are somehow 'closed' to the GOP rather than that they just haven't had the need or inclination to blow them open yet. The only thing that would have changed if Reid had never used the nuclear option is that McConnell would have had more seats to fill when he threw that shit out the window the minute he had the opportunity to stack the Federal bench to a historic degree.

I mean, to borrow a phrase, he was for it before he was against it.

Disagree actually or else they would have done it long ago but they didn't. The GOP seems content with just not bothering to close the door when its opened because they know it'll just reopened again to their detriment. And that is because the Democrats are more of the living constitution types.

[Zurkerx]

Arizona GOP censures Cindy McCain, Jeff Flake, and Doug Ducey

Well, hopefully a good sign for future Democratic prospects in Arizona that the GOP there has decided to quadruple down on the crazy.

And their chances may even be better if this happens: Trump jumps into a divisive battle over the Republican Party — with a threat to start a ‘MAGA Party’ (aka Patriot Party). In all honesty, Trump making a third party would sink the GOP's chances of winning control back:

Former president Donald Trump threw himself back into politics this weekend by publicly endorsing a devoted and divisive acolyte in Arizona who has embraced his false election conspiracy theories and entertained the creation of a new "MAGA Party."

In a recorded phone call, Trump offered his “complete and total endorsement” for another term for Arizona state party chairwoman Kelli Ward, a lightning rod who has sparred with the state’s Republican governor, been condemned by the business community and overseen a recent flight in party registrations. She narrowly won reelection, by a margin of 51.5 percent to 48.5 percent, marking Trump’s first victory in a promised battle to maintain political relevance and influence after losing the 2020 election.

In recent weeks, Trump has entertained the idea of creating a third party, called the Patriot Party, and instructed his aides to prepare election challenges to lawmakers who crossed him in the final weeks in office, including Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R), Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Rep. Tom Rice (R-S.C.), according to people familiar with the plans.

In the first nine days after the riot, nearly 5,000 Arizona Republicans changed their party registration, compared with 719 Democrats, according to the secretary of state’s office. The pattern has continued since then at a reduced scale.

[Kowani]

Trump pressed the Justice Department to go directly to SCOTUS to overturn the election results

the plan did not work
again

[The Marlborough]

If Trump created his own party that obtained considerable support and local success (quite likely) you can bet your ass the Justice Democrats will force a similar split among Democrats.

[Zurkerx]

And here's the full article. Basically, Trump is angry at the GOP and will use his popularity to take down the likes of McConnell and McCarthy. He will also have his most ardent supporters continue to label those that betrayed him disloyal. Essentially as we have all said, he's seeking revenge and is willing to tear down the part, and country. So, if the GOP is smart enough, they'll convict and bar him from future office.

PALM BEACH, Fla. — Former president Donald Trump threw himself back into politics this weekend by publicly endorsing a devoted and divisive acolyte in Arizona who has embraced his false election conspiracy theories and entertained the creation of a new "MAGA Party."

In a recorded phone call, Trump offered his “complete and total endorsement” for another term for Arizona state party chairwoman Kelli Ward, a lightning rod who has sparred with the state’s Republican governor, been condemned by the business community and overseen a recent flight in party registrations. She narrowly won reelection, by a margin of 51.5 percent to 48.5 percent, marking Trump’s first victory in a promised battle to maintain political relevance and influence after losing the 2020 election.

In recent weeks, Trump has entertained the idea of creating a third party, called the Patriot Party, and instructed his aides to prepare election challenges to lawmakers who crossed him in the final weeks in office, including Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R), Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Rep. Tom Rice (R-S.C.), according to people familiar with the plans.

Multiple people in Trump’s orbit, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations, say Trump has told people that the third-party threat gives him leverage to prevent Republican senators from voting to convict him during the Senate impeachment trial. Trump advisers also say they plan to recruit opposing primary candidates and commission polling next week in districts of targeted lawmakers. Trump has more than $70 million in campaign cash banked to fund his political efforts, these people say.

The prospect of a divisive battle threatens to widen a split in the Republican Party and has alarmed leaders in Washington, who have been pleading publicly to avoid any new rounds of internecine retribution. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Republican Party Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel are among the leaders who have worked to protect politicians like Cheney, who supported Trump’s second impeachment and now faces an internal effort to remove her from her role as the third-highest-ranking member of the House Republican leadership.

McDaniel has also spoken out about the idea of a third-party split, while repeatedly pushing back against moves by Arizona state party leaders to censure fellow Republicans, such as Gov. Doug Ducey and Cindy McCain, the widow of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who have broken with Trump.

“Having differences in the party is fine. Being a party that is adamantly against cancel culture, we need to recognize that purging isn’t good. Let the voters make the decision,” McDaniel said. “The only way we win in 2022 is if we start getting rid of this purism and cancel culture in our own party.”

Graham, a close confidant of Trump, has also been trying to talk him out of attacking Cheney, Rice and Ducey, who earned Trump’s ire by recognizing Joe Biden’s win in Arizona and refusing to endorse Trump’s baseless assertions that it rested on fraud.

“We’ve got to go together, and be a party together,” Graham said. “I’m into winning. I’m into conservatives who can win.”

The central issue between the warring party elements is whether Republicans will continue to organize themselves around fealty to Trump or whether a broader coalition should be built in the coming years that can welcome both his most avid supporters and those who have condemned his behavior. The scale and shape of the big tent built by Ronald Reagan, nurtured by George W. Bush and transformed by Trump is once again up for grabs, as the party finds itself without power at the White House, the House or the Senate for the first time since 2014.

“What we have seen in President Trump is an incredible politician but one who was limited to getting 46 or 47 percent of the national vote,” said Henry Barbour, a Mississippi national committeeman who serves on the board of the Data Trust, a company that manages the party’s data infrastructure. “We can win over 50 percent if we grow the party by addition and not division.”

As it now stands, the big tent is tearing at the edges. Business groups have called for a Grand Old Party purge of more extreme leaders, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has blamed Trump and other Republicans for provoking the U.S. Capitol riot and McCarthy has said Trump “bears responsibility” for the attack by not immediately denouncing the violence once it began — although he later said he did not believe Trump provoked the riot.

Trump’s fiercest supporters in Congress, meanwhile, have continued to threaten and denounce those who criticize the former president, repeatedly raising the prospect of a more fundamental party division.

Adding to the conflict, Republican voters remain overwhelmingly supportive of Trump, suggesting strength in primary races that the establishment figures fear could prompt losses in competitive state and national races. A recent Washington Post-ABC News poll found that 6 in 10 Republicans believed the party should follow Trump’s leadership going forward, rather than chart a new path.

“Here’s a warning the GOP needs to hear,” tweeted Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), a newly elected member who has embraced Trump’s conspiratorial view and made supportive comments about the extremist group QAnon. “The vast majority of Republican voters, volunteers, and donors are no longer loyal to the GOP, Republican Party, and candidates just because they have an R by their name. Their loyalty now lies with Donald J Trump.”

The same tensions are also playing out in the states, where grass-roots party apparatuses have rebelled against calls to accept Biden as the duly elected president. The state party of Wyoming, where Cheney serves, previously demanded that the electoral college results be rejected in Congress.

Nowhere is the division more stark now than in Arizona, where the state Republican Party, run by Ward, has tried to lead the challenge of Biden’s victory. Before the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, she filed a failed lawsuit against Vice President Mike Pence in Texas in an effort to force him to rule on the legitimacy of Arizona’s electoral votes. She has also recorded conspiracy-laden videos about election impropriety that have attracted legal threats for defamation from Dominion Voting Systems, which makes software used to count ballots in parts of Arizona.

At a state party meeting Saturday in Phoenix, hundreds of party activists gathered in church for a largely maskless gathering where some members disregarded yellow caution tape on chairs meant to enforce social distancing. Political divisions were often described in near-apocalyptic terms, and chaotic shouting dominated large parts of the proceedings, as different members of the party and people who have advocated for a new third party fought over parliamentary procedure during nominating speeches.

“We can’t give up, we can’t give in, everything is at stake, hold the line,” was the rallying cry that ended an introductory video.

“We are on a precipice that has never been seen before since maybe the mid-1800s,” Rep. Paul A. Gosar (R-Ariz.) said at one point, in an apparent reference to the fight over slavery.

Ward was expected to win reelection, though her margin was surprisingly narrow, after she presented her candidacy as the only option to keep the Arizona party from going “back to the dark days before Trump.” She said Trump had asked her to run in a private meeting, and then played the recorded message from him endorsing her candidacy.

“The president is watching today’s race very closely,” she said.

Her efforts to reject the results of the presidential election, which were run in her state by Ducey and other Republicans, have created a massive backlash among moderate elements of the party and among the business community, which has historically sided with Republicans in the state.

On the day of the Capitol riot, Ward posted a poll on her Twitter account asking, “Can we salvage/save the Republican Party or do we need another option?” “Salvage it!” received 8 percent of the responses, compared with 78 percent who selected “#MAGA Party needed.”

Though Republicans performed well down ballot in 2020, they have lost two U.S. Senate seats since 2018. Last year, Biden became the first Democrat in 24 years to win Arizona’s electoral votes, narrowly besting Trump by 0.3 percentage points. Many moderate Republican strategists in the state blame the extremism of the party infrastructure for the losses and worry about finding a candidate to field for the Senate seat up in 2022. Ducey, who is term-limited, has said he will not run for that office.

“Right now on the Republican side, I don’t have a word to describe what is going on,” Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry President Glenn Hamer said. “Whatever the worst-case scenario is, this is worse. There will be a reaction to this. I have no doubt about it.”

The divide in the party was evident on Jan. 6, when Republican protests at the Arizona Capitol physically split in two when jumbotron screens showed the riot happening thousands of miles away in Washington. One group of protesters said they supported the raid, while a separate group opposed it.

In the first nine days after the riot, nearly 5,000 Arizona Republicans changed their party registration, compared with 719 Democrats, according to the secretary of state’s office. The pattern has continued since then at a reduced scale.

Neil G. Giuliano, the president of Greater Phoenix Leadership, a group of the state’s corporate leaders, says he personally knows more than a dozen people who have left the party after the attack on the Capitol and the decision by Republican lawmakers to endorse Trump’s false claims of fraud. The group put out a statement this month condemning as “reprehensible” the behavior of Ward, Gosar and Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) for “disinformation and outright lies to reverse a fair and free election.” The two members of Congress were among the most vocal in seeking to deny Biden his electoral victory.

“They all know the truth,” Giuliano said about the Republican officials who nonetheless claimed the election result was fraudulent. “I can’t remember a time when there was something as serious as this that compelled CEOs to speak so strongly about what was going on in a political party.”

Chuck Coughlin, a Republican consultant who worked with former governor Jan Brewer (R), is hoping to raise money for a statewide referendum that could impose nonpartisan primary elections in the state, draining power away from local Republican Party officials.

“They get self-validated through their chat groups, and they think people like Gosar can win statewide elections and there is just no truth to that,” Coughlin said. “They would rather worship themselves than work on a cause greater than themselves.”

Trump himself is likely to decide how vicious the coming fights will be. Since leaving office, he has played golf in Palm Beach while remaining focused on his political fortunes. In recent weeks, Trump has told advisers that he remains angry at both McConnell and McCarthy and has the popularity to drive down their support within the party. He is encouraging his most loyal Republican lawmakers and advisers to attack other Republicans for being disloyal — and is launching an effort to blanket the airwaves during the impeachment trial, according to a person familiar with his efforts.

At the same time, he has told aides he plans to keep a lower profile over the next few months before ramping his public activities back up to fulfill his vague departing pledge, made at Joint Base Andrews on Inauguration Day, to “be back in some form.”

Conservative activists have grown concerned about Trump’s talk of a third-party split, which has been spreading over Facebook and through other messaging apps.

“A third party would lock in for a generation the left’s ascendancy in American politics,” said Tim Phillips, the president of Americans for Prosperity and an early tea party organizer. “If you look at what Republicans accomplished during the brief time they were in power — generational tax reform, three Supreme Court justices, deregulation of the economy and energy policies to help America — they had some key successes.”

Those hoping for more party unity argue that time, and collective anger at Democratic policies, are likely to heal the current wounds, as it has in past moments of crises for the party, like after the Watergate scandal, the election of Bill Clinton and the total government takeover by Democrats under Barack Obama.

Grover Norquist, a longtime party activist who runs Americans for Tax Reform, said that by the next election, complaints about Democratic proposals will overshadow the current Republican divisions.

“You can count yourself to sleep at night by recounting the number of times the establishment has said that the Republican Party is dead,” he said.

[Omniabstracta]

I mean, to borrow a phrase, he was for it before he was against it.

Disagree actually or else they would have done it long ago but they didn't. The GOP seems content with just not bothering to close the door when its opened because they know it'll just reopened again to their detriment. And that is because the Democrats are more of the living constitution types.

I think it more comes down to the fact that as a Conservative party they are inherently more inclined to support the status quo, and therefore things like the filibuster or current appointment rules already benefit them. In the few policy issues where it does actually get in their way and obstructionism isn’t viable to keep their base complacent, they already did open that door a long time ago, as the consistent use of budget reconciliation to ram through major tax cuts shows.

[Albrenia]

If Trump created his own party that obtained considerable support and local success (quite likely) you can bet your ass the Justice Democrats will force a similar split among Democrats.

That would seem like a stupid move. Why give up near certain victory for at least the next several elections?

I mean, they -are- Democrats so snatching defeat from the jaws of victory is a habit with them, but still.

[A-Series-Of-Tubes]

You are misrepresenting what he said. Cornyn was not threatening to impeach past presidents. He merely pointed out that convicting a former president who no longer holds office sets a bad precedent for the future, which he seeks to avoid.

Read the damn article, folks.

So you become above the law for offences committed in office, up to and including treason if you resign before they get to you?

It does seem that way. Above impeachment anyway, though you could still face a regular trial. Impeachment/conviction only removes the immunity of office (for Pres anyway) but does not protect against double jeopardy: it's not technically a trial.

Cornyn is full of shit. Former officials who were impeached while in office, can be 'tried' by the Senate even after resigning or completing their term. That doesn't mean they can be impeached then.

[Cannot think of a name]

I mean, to borrow a phrase, he was for it before he was against it.

Disagree actually or else they would have done it long ago but they didn't. The GOP seems content with just not bothering to close the door when its opened because they know it'll just reopened again to their detriment. And that is because the Democrats are more of the living constitution types.

Except extraordinary effort had to be employed to stop them.
And not ten years later they went straight into using the filibuster abusively anyway. So...no, sorry. Republicans aren't innocent victims being forced into shenanigans.

[A-Series-Of-Tubes]

If Trump created his own party that obtained considerable support and local success (quite likely) you can bet your ass the Justice Democrats will force a similar split among Democrats.

Nonsense. "Considerable support and local success" would not be much, and it would hurt Republicans for a net loss of representation.

"Justice Democrats" would look at that, and plainly see a worse result for their own causes than remaining in a big tent party actually in power.

We went through all this a decade ago. "The GOP being dragged Right by the Tea Party means the Democrats will be dragged Left by Progressives". Didn't happen. Pseudo-politics.

[Myrensis]

If Trump created his own party that obtained considerable support and local success (quite likely) you can bet your ass the Justice Democrats will force a similar split among Democrats.

There are a grand total of 7 Justice Democrats in Congress, all in the House, and it's not at all certain they'd keep their seats running 3rd party.

Trump has the advantage that the 'radical fringe' of the GOP is actually the bedrock of their base. We have 3 election cycles now demonstrating pretty handily that the same is not true in the Democratic Party.

Trump forming a 'Patriot Party' would almost certainly lead to devastation for Republicans, the Rose Twitter Party is not like to seriously affect Democrats.

[Zurkerx]

If Trump created his own party that obtained considerable support and local success (quite likely) you can bet your ass the Justice Democrats will force a similar split among Democrats.

There are a grand total of 7 Justice Democrats in Congress, all in the House, and it's not at all certain they'd keep their seats running 3rd party.

Trump has the advantage that the 'radical fringe' of the GOP is actually the bedrock of their base. We have 3 election cycles now demonstrating pretty handily that the same is not true in the Democratic Party.

Trump forming a 'Patriot Party' would almost certainly lead to devastation for Republicans, the Rose Twitter Party is not like to seriously affect Democrats.

I do think if there was a split from Democrats, it would lead to the creation of a Progressive Party. Of course, I don't see that happening and Trump's calls for a third party are more of a threat to ensure they don't vote convict. But GOP Leadership wants him gone so hopefully they'll do the right thing, hopefully. In the meantime, if Trump can get some fringe radical elements in more State GOP Parties, that will help Democrats I think.

[Shanzie]

You are misrepresenting what he said. Cornyn was not threatening to impeach past presidents. He merely pointed out that convicting a former president who no longer holds office sets a bad precedent of revisiting presidencies and impeaching them post partem for the future, which he seeks to avoid.

Read the damn article, folks.

I...

...busted.


However-

“If it is a good idea to impeach and try former presidents, what about former Democratic presidents when Republicans get the majority in 2022?” Cornyn, a 19-year veteran of the Senate who last year tried to distance himself from Trump when it seemed his seat was at risk, tweeted at majority leader Chuck Schumer.

“Think about it and let’s do what is best for the country.”

Well, look man...if you think you have a good reason...you know, like they incited an insurection, go for it. If you think you have a case that won't make you look like petty assholes and undermine any mandate you might have had after that election...go for it. "What if someone misuses prosocutorial power" is not an excuse to not use prosocutorial power.

I hate that he's gonna get away Scott free

[Eahland]

And here's the full article. Basically, Trump is angry at the GOP and will use his popularity to take down the likes of McConnell and McCarthy. He will also have his most ardent supporters continue to label those that betrayed him disloyal. Essentially as we have all said, he's seeking revenge and is willing to tear down the part, and country. So, if the GOP is smart enough, they'll convict and bar him from future office.

I've been thinking the smart move for Republican Senators is to boycott the impeachment vote, with appropriate mouth noises about how they're not going to participate in the unconstitutional farce of holding a Republican even slightly accountable for blatant public crimes. The Constitutional requirement for conviction is 2/3rds of the Senators present. If half the Republican caucus just doesn't show up, the Democrats can convict Trump without a single R vote. The Republicans get Trump out of their hair, have the Democrats do their dirty work for them, and none of them have to take a principled stand against wannabee tyrants overthrowing American democracy.

[Cannot think of a name]

If Trump created his own party that obtained considerable support and local success (quite likely) you can bet your ass the Justice Democrats will force a similar split among Democrats.

There are a grand total of 7 Justice Democrats in Congress, all in the House, and it's not at all certain they'd keep their seats running 3rd party.

Trump has the advantage that the 'radical fringe' of the GOP is actually the bedrock of their base. We have 3 election cycles now demonstrating pretty handily that the same is not true in the Democratic Party.

Trump forming a 'Patriot Party' would almost certainly lead to devastation for Republicans, the Rose Twitter Party is not like to seriously affect Democrats.

I'm keen to see him try, honestly. I think we kind of forget that he was part of a massive primary field and that base that he formed wasn't substantial, it was just greater than the individual others. There was no Clyburn to unite the party against a single alternative in their case.

But thanks to a discipline in the Republican party dating back to Reagan, once Trump was their guy, he was their guy. That way too often lauded 74 million was the combination of support for Trump and support for the Republican Party right or wrong, even if that was eroded enough for Trump to lose the election. In fact, Republicans in general did better than Trump.

Let him peel his wing out of the party. I think we might find that the ones that were do or die Trump and not just do or die republicans are not as significant as we OR the Republicans think. And they'll all learn this just as they've sacrificed their influence. Plus, the split electorate gives the Biden administration some breathing room and maybe some harder to undo good can be put in place before America's short attention span puts the Republicans back in charge again.

[A-Series-Of-Tubes]

I...

...busted.


However-

Well, look man...if you think you have a good reason...you know, like they incited an insurection, go for it. If you think you have a case that won't make you look like petty assholes and undermine any mandate you might have had after that election...go for it. "What if someone misuses prosocutorial power" is not an excuse to not use prosocutorial power.

I hate that he's gonna get away Scott free

"Scot free" is a phrase we don't use much any more. Congratulations on trying to morph it into "second party to reach the South Pole, unfortunately died after that" Scott.

[Rusozak]

And here's the full article. Basically, Trump is angry at the GOP and will use his popularity to take down the likes of McConnell and McCarthy. He will also have his most ardent supporters continue to label those that betrayed him disloyal. Essentially as we have all said, he's seeking revenge and is willing to tear down the part, and country. So, if the GOP is smart enough, they'll convict and bar him from future office.

PALM BEACH, Fla. — Former president Donald Trump threw himself back into politics this weekend by publicly endorsing a devoted and divisive acolyte in Arizona who has embraced his false election conspiracy theories and entertained the creation of a new "MAGA Party."

In a recorded phone call, Trump offered his “complete and total endorsement” for another term for Arizona state party chairwoman Kelli Ward, a lightning rod who has sparred with the state’s Republican governor, been condemned by the business community and overseen a recent flight in party registrations. She narrowly won reelection, by a margin of 51.5 percent to 48.5 percent, marking Trump’s first victory in a promised battle to maintain political relevance and influence after losing the 2020 election.

In recent weeks, Trump has entertained the idea of creating a third party, called the Patriot Party, and instructed his aides to prepare election challenges to lawmakers who crossed him in the final weeks in office, including Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R), Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Rep. Tom Rice (R-S.C.), according to people familiar with the plans.

Multiple people in Trump’s orbit, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations, say Trump has told people that the third-party threat gives him leverage to prevent Republican senators from voting to convict him during the Senate impeachment trial. Trump advisers also say they plan to recruit opposing primary candidates and commission polling next week in districts of targeted lawmakers. Trump has more than $70 million in campaign cash banked to fund his political efforts, these people say.

The prospect of a divisive battle threatens to widen a split in the Republican Party and has alarmed leaders in Washington, who have been pleading publicly to avoid any new rounds of internecine retribution. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Republican Party Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel are among the leaders who have worked to protect politicians like Cheney, who supported Trump’s second impeachment and now faces an internal effort to remove her from her role as the third-highest-ranking member of the House Republican leadership.

McDaniel has also spoken out about the idea of a third-party split, while repeatedly pushing back against moves by Arizona state party leaders to censure fellow Republicans, such as Gov. Doug Ducey and Cindy McCain, the widow of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who have broken with Trump.

“Having differences in the party is fine. Being a party that is adamantly against cancel culture, we need to recognize that purging isn’t good. Let the voters make the decision,” McDaniel said. “The only way we win in 2022 is if we start getting rid of this purism and cancel culture in our own party.”

Graham, a close confidant of Trump, has also been trying to talk him out of attacking Cheney, Rice and Ducey, who earned Trump’s ire by recognizing Joe Biden’s win in Arizona and refusing to endorse Trump’s baseless assertions that it rested on fraud.

“We’ve got to go together, and be a party together,” Graham said. “I’m into winning. I’m into conservatives who can win.”

The central issue between the warring party elements is whether Republicans will continue to organize themselves around fealty to Trump or whether a broader coalition should be built in the coming years that can welcome both his most avid supporters and those who have condemned his behavior. The scale and shape of the big tent built by Ronald Reagan, nurtured by George W. Bush and transformed by Trump is once again up for grabs, as the party finds itself without power at the White House, the House or the Senate for the first time since 2014.

“What we have seen in President Trump is an incredible politician but one who was limited to getting 46 or 47 percent of the national vote,” said Henry Barbour, a Mississippi national committeeman who serves on the board of the Data Trust, a company that manages the party’s data infrastructure. “We can win over 50 percent if we grow the party by addition and not division.”

As it now stands, the big tent is tearing at the edges. Business groups have called for a Grand Old Party purge of more extreme leaders, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has blamed Trump and other Republicans for provoking the U.S. Capitol riot and McCarthy has said Trump “bears responsibility” for the attack by not immediately denouncing the violence once it began — although he later said he did not believe Trump provoked the riot.

Trump’s fiercest supporters in Congress, meanwhile, have continued to threaten and denounce those who criticize the former president, repeatedly raising the prospect of a more fundamental party division.

Adding to the conflict, Republican voters remain overwhelmingly supportive of Trump, suggesting strength in primary races that the establishment figures fear could prompt losses in competitive state and national races. A recent Washington Post-ABC News poll found that 6 in 10 Republicans believed the party should follow Trump’s leadership going forward, rather than chart a new path.

“Here’s a warning the GOP needs to hear,” tweeted Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), a newly elected member who has embraced Trump’s conspiratorial view and made supportive comments about the extremist group QAnon. “The vast majority of Republican voters, volunteers, and donors are no longer loyal to the GOP, Republican Party, and candidates just because they have an R by their name. Their loyalty now lies with Donald J Trump.”

The same tensions are also playing out in the states, where grass-roots party apparatuses have rebelled against calls to accept Biden as the duly elected president. The state party of Wyoming, where Cheney serves, previously demanded that the electoral college results be rejected in Congress.

Nowhere is the division more stark now than in Arizona, where the state Republican Party, run by Ward, has tried to lead the challenge of Biden’s victory. Before the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, she filed a failed lawsuit against Vice President Mike Pence in Texas in an effort to force him to rule on the legitimacy of Arizona’s electoral votes. She has also recorded conspiracy-laden videos about election impropriety that have attracted legal threats for defamation from Dominion Voting Systems, which makes software used to count ballots in parts of Arizona.

At a state party meeting Saturday in Phoenix, hundreds of party activists gathered in church for a largely maskless gathering where some members disregarded yellow caution tape on chairs meant to enforce social distancing. Political divisions were often described in near-apocalyptic terms, and chaotic shouting dominated large parts of the proceedings, as different members of the party and people who have advocated for a new third party fought over parliamentary procedure during nominating speeches.

“We can’t give up, we can’t give in, everything is at stake, hold the line,” was the rallying cry that ended an introductory video.

“We are on a precipice that has never been seen before since maybe the mid-1800s,” Rep. Paul A. Gosar (R-Ariz.) said at one point, in an apparent reference to the fight over slavery.

Ward was expected to win reelection, though her margin was surprisingly narrow, after she presented her candidacy as the only option to keep the Arizona party from going “back to the dark days before Trump.” She said Trump had asked her to run in a private meeting, and then played the recorded message from him endorsing her candidacy.

“The president is watching today’s race very closely,” she said.

Her efforts to reject the results of the presidential election, which were run in her state by Ducey and other Republicans, have created a massive backlash among moderate elements of the party and among the business community, which has historically sided with Republicans in the state.

On the day of the Capitol riot, Ward posted a poll on her Twitter account asking, “Can we salvage/save the Republican Party or do we need another option?” “Salvage it!” received 8 percent of the responses, compared with 78 percent who selected “#MAGA Party needed.”

Though Republicans performed well down ballot in 2020, they have lost two U.S. Senate seats since 2018. Last year, Biden became the first Democrat in 24 years to win Arizona’s electoral votes, narrowly besting Trump by 0.3 percentage points. Many moderate Republican strategists in the state blame the extremism of the party infrastructure for the losses and worry about finding a candidate to field for the Senate seat up in 2022. Ducey, who is term-limited, has said he will not run for that office.

“Right now on the Republican side, I don’t have a word to describe what is going on,” Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry President Glenn Hamer said. “Whatever the worst-case scenario is, this is worse. There will be a reaction to this. I have no doubt about it.”

The divide in the party was evident on Jan. 6, when Republican protests at the Arizona Capitol physically split in two when jumbotron screens showed the riot happening thousands of miles away in Washington. One group of protesters said they supported the raid, while a separate group opposed it.

In the first nine days after the riot, nearly 5,000 Arizona Republicans changed their party registration, compared with 719 Democrats, according to the secretary of state’s office. The pattern has continued since then at a reduced scale.

Neil G. Giuliano, the president of Greater Phoenix Leadership, a group of the state’s corporate leaders, says he personally knows more than a dozen people who have left the party after the attack on the Capitol and the decision by Republican lawmakers to endorse Trump’s false claims of fraud. The group put out a statement this month condemning as “reprehensible” the behavior of Ward, Gosar and Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) for “disinformation and outright lies to reverse a fair and free election.” The two members of Congress were among the most vocal in seeking to deny Biden his electoral victory.

“They all know the truth,” Giuliano said about the Republican officials who nonetheless claimed the election result was fraudulent. “I can’t remember a time when there was something as serious as this that compelled CEOs to speak so strongly about what was going on in a political party.”

Chuck Coughlin, a Republican consultant who worked with former governor Jan Brewer (R), is hoping to raise money for a statewide referendum that could impose nonpartisan primary elections in the state, draining power away from local Republican Party officials.

“They get self-validated through their chat groups, and they think people like Gosar can win statewide elections and there is just no truth to that,” Coughlin said. “They would rather worship themselves than work on a cause greater than themselves.”

Trump himself is likely to decide how vicious the coming fights will be. Since leaving office, he has played golf in Palm Beach while remaining focused on his political fortunes. In recent weeks, Trump has told advisers that he remains angry at both McConnell and McCarthy and has the popularity to drive down their support within the party. He is encouraging his most loyal Republican lawmakers and advisers to attack other Republicans for being disloyal — and is launching an effort to blanket the airwaves during the impeachment trial, according to a person familiar with his efforts.

At the same time, he has told aides he plans to keep a lower profile over the next few months before ramping his public activities back up to fulfill his vague departing pledge, made at Joint Base Andrews on Inauguration Day, to “be back in some form.”

Conservative activists have grown concerned about Trump’s talk of a third-party split, which has been spreading over Facebook and through other messaging apps.

“A third party would lock in for a generation the left’s ascendancy in American politics,” said Tim Phillips, the president of Americans for Prosperity and an early tea party organizer. “If you look at what Republicans accomplished during the brief time they were in power — generational tax reform, three Supreme Court justices, deregulation of the economy and energy policies to help America — they had some key successes.”

Those hoping for more party unity argue that time, and collective anger at Democratic policies, are likely to heal the current wounds, as it has in past moments of crises for the party, like after the Watergate scandal, the election of Bill Clinton and the total government takeover by Democrats under Barack Obama.

Grover Norquist, a longtime party activist who runs Americans for Tax Reform, said that by the next election, complaints about Democratic proposals will overshadow the current Republican divisions.

“You can count yourself to sleep at night by recounting the number of times the establishment has said that the Republican Party is dead,” he said.

I don't think he can be barred from lobbying though, and it sounds like that is what he's planning. Even if his personal political career is dead, there's others that will follow him, and a mass of voters that will vote for whoever he tells them to.

[Picairn]

If Trump created his own party that obtained considerable support and local success (quite likely) you can bet your ass the Justice Democrats will force a similar split among Democrats.

Dude the Greens got even fewer votes than Libertarians last year's election. What makes you think the Justice Democrats can succeed on their own?

[Myrensis]

There are a grand total of 7 Justice Democrats in Congress, all in the House, and it's not at all certain they'd keep their seats running 3rd party.

Trump has the advantage that the 'radical fringe' of the GOP is actually the bedrock of their base. We have 3 election cycles now demonstrating pretty handily that the same is not true in the Democratic Party.

Trump forming a 'Patriot Party' would almost certainly lead to devastation for Republicans, the Rose Twitter Party is not like to seriously affect Democrats.

I do think if there was a split from Democrats, it would lead to the creation of a Progressive Party. Of course, I don't see that happening and Trump's calls for a third party are more of a threat to ensure they don't vote convict. But GOP Leadership wants him gone so hopefully they'll do the right thing, hopefully. In the meantime, if Trump can get some fringe radical elements in more State GOP Parties, that will help Democrats I think.

Republicans, do the right thing?

They're all ready glomming onto the "Impeaching him is unconstitutional because he left!" argument, and banking on the fact the farther we get away from January 6th, the easier it is to distract the goldfish voters and protect themselves from being primaried by the cult their political power depends on.

It looks like even McConnell will decide that voting to acquit after explicitly blaming Trump for inciting the riot is preferable to risking his position as minority leader.

I'd expect Romney, Sasse, maybe Collins and Murkowski to vote for conviction, and that's about it.

[Cannot think of a name]

There are a grand total of 7 Justice Democrats in Congress, all in the House, and it's not at all certain they'd keep their seats running 3rd party.

Trump has the advantage that the 'radical fringe' of the GOP is actually the bedrock of their base. We have 3 election cycles now demonstrating pretty handily that the same is not true in the Democratic Party.

Trump forming a 'Patriot Party' would almost certainly lead to devastation for Republicans, the Rose Twitter Party is not like to seriously affect Democrats.

I do think if there was a split from Democrats, it would lead to the creation of a Progressive Party. Of course, I don't see that happening and Trump's calls for a third party are more of a threat to ensure they don't vote convict. But GOP Leadership wants him gone so hopefully they'll do the right thing, hopefully. In the meantime, if Trump can get some fringe radical elements in more State GOP Parties, that will help Democrats I think.

It's worth noting that outside internet hipsters, figures like Sanders have found more success joining the Democrats and putting their finger on the scale than previously when Sanders was a third party entity. He didn't get the influence and relevance he has now by getting people to join the Democratic Socialists, he got it by joining the Democrats. And yes, he lost the nomination twice and yes the apparatus had a hand in doing it, but his presence and pressure has done more in four years to effect the Democratic platform than he did a lifetime out of it. Similarly, candidates like AOC and Omar have done more being in the party than they could hope to do outside of it.

Hipsters scoring cool points on the internet are not a big enough voting block to merit trying to build a party around them just because Trump tries to take his ball and go home.

[Jakker]

If NSG represents the sum of scholarly ability, I think I get where Stalin was coming from with the purges of the educated.

*** Warned for Trolling/Flamebaiting ***

[Cannot think of a name]

If Trump created his own party that obtained considerable support and local success (quite likely) you can bet your ass the Justice Democrats will force a similar split among Democrats.

Dude the Greens got even fewer votes than Libertarians last year's election. What makes you think the Justice Democrats can succeed on their own?

Well, most Green voters understand that they're not voting for a president, they're voting for a party to get access to funding and ballot access and to know when it's not the right election. This was not the election to get the Greens 5% at the cost of four more years of Trump.

[Bombadil]

Republicans, do the right thing?

They're all ready glomming onto the "Impeaching him is unconstitutional because he left!" argument, and banking on the fact the farther we get away from January 6th, the easier it is to distract the goldfish voters and protect themselves from being primaried by the cult their political power depends on.

It looks like even McConnell will decide that voting to acquit after explicitly blaming Trump for inciting the riot is preferable to risking his position as minority leader.

I'd expect Romney, Sasse, maybe Collins and Murkowski to vote for conviction, and that's about it.

I don't know, when the evidence is presented it will be compelling. They will be reminded how close they came to serious danger and the fact that the president did nothing to stop it, even inflamed it with his tweet about Pence, for some 3 hours after it started.

And then called them patriots and 'we love you'.

[Repubblica Fascista Sociale Italiana]

Against all odds post Trump this thread got dumber.

It just found a new target to blame for when things go wrong - regardless of whether or not said target is actually a cause of the problem. The US presidency is like that