German Politics I: Turn Left at the Traffic Light

[The Blaatschapen]

the SILF-Kanzler! We are here for it! Unless that makes us Scheep-shaggers...

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Can anyone appreciate that by tanking her own campaign, Baerbock has also locked the CDU in with their worst candidate ever? He'll win even if he is found in bed with a live girl or a dead boy (or a barely alive sheep, at this point). Meaning the CDU will stay the course with Mr No-Change-Come-Hell-Or-High-Water.

High water is already here, where's Hell coming from?

Well, with all the high water in the West...I'd say Brandenburg.

Brrr, bring food.

[Flohaland]

Bundestag President Wolfgang Schäuble suggests CDU/CSU Minority Government possible after September

Because if there's one thing we've learned from every other country that has one, it's that Minority Governments are the very paragon of stability./s

Isn't this probably just good positioning for the coalition negotiating? I also don't think a minority government would be bad for Germany, just for whoever is Kanzler. The CDU would have to compromise to stay in power, but have no coalition party to blame.

[Keira]

First, spare a thought for everyone in NRW and Rhienland-Pfalz who are suffering in the floods on the Rhine and Ahr rivers(Over 1300 missing in one district in Rhienland-Pfalz).

Second, some more poll numbers as political news has been fairly quiet: In Mecklendurg-Vorpommern, the federal polls see the Greens cut in half down to 8% and CDU staying in the lead

Polls remain more or less unchanged in Rhienland-Pfalz

Ah Green parties. They either seem to never take off or when they do they fuck themselves or get fucked by something else. (Germany, Ireland etc)

Or, when they win, they're socially authoritarian agrarians and corrupt in all kinds of ways (Lithuania's previous government).

[The Huskar Social Union]

I wonder how this might go down with the German People:

In the foreground you can see the federal president of Germany, talking about the flood disaster happening Germany. The person on the left in the background is Armin Laschet, laughing and joking. He is the chancellor candidate of the CDU and probably the next chancellor of Germany.

edit: Obviously it isnt about the floods itself but damn does it look bad.

[Shrillland]

I wonder how this might go down with the German People:

In the foreground you can see the federal president of Germany, talking about the flood disaster happening Germany. The person on the left in the background is Armin Laschet, laughing and joking. He is the chancellor candidate of the CDU and probably the next chancellor of Germany.

edit: Obviously it isnt about the floods itself but damn does it look bad.

Not just candidate, don't forget he's still Minister-President of NRW, the state hardest hit so far. As for how it could affect things, I don't think a Trump-style scandal could bring down CDU/CSU's numbers at this point, Baerbock and Schulz just don't have the strength to beat him. And he has apologised already.

[Shrillland]

Ah Green parties. They either seem to never take off or when they do they fuck themselves or get fucked by something else. (Germany, Ireland etc)

Or, when they win, they're socially authoritarian agrarians and corrupt in all kinds of ways (Lithuania's previous government).

Well, the Baltic Green parties are a special case considering their odd political leanings.

[Flohaland]

I think that it will be forgotten by election time. It is also important to remember that there really is no election for the chancellor, but for the party. Sure the chancellor candidates are also the face the party, but Laschet is already a 'meh' candidate. He doesn't really excited anyone either way.

Also, I find that disaster gaffes are a genre of political faux pas, that tend to be over valued by the opposition and blown up by the media. Only Queen Elizabeth is seems expected to always display the proper emotions 100% of the time.

What is more important is what Laschet did or didn't do practically as Minister President. If it comes out that he was responsible for not taking appropriate measures, that would be meaningful.

That said. The alternative to the CDU isn't very good. The Greens are opponents of the auto industry, which is one of Germany's biggest industries. The Left is too extreme and the SPD doesn't know if it wants to be radical or moderate.

[Shrillland]

As the floods in NRW finally recede, attention is turning back to Laschet's Minister-Presidency and his slowing down of climate mitigation efforts

[Flohaland]

As the floods in NRW finally recede, attention is turning back to Laschet's Minister-Presidency and his slowing down of climate mitigation efforts

Those policies are unpopular and probably wouldn't have made a difference in regards to flooding. Sure, climate change has an effect on flooding, but those policies have a real small effect on climate change. Flood control and warning policies would have a direct effect on flooding and really, the best way to reduce carbon emissions is to expand nuclear power. Guess which party opposes that?

[Remnants of Exilvania]

I think that it will be forgotten by election time. It is also important to remember that there really is no election for the chancellor, but for the party. Sure the chancellor candidates are also the face the party, but Laschet is already a 'meh' candidate. He doesn't really excited anyone either way.

I mean, to be honest, there are only 'meh' candidates throughout the entire german political landscape.

Pretty sure if Merkel decided to run another time, she'd win again, that's how 'meh' everyone else is.

[Othelos]

I'm really curious about what kind of coalition will form

[Flohaland]

I think that it will be forgotten by election time. It is also important to remember that there really is no election for the chancellor, but for the party. Sure the chancellor candidates are also the face the party, but Laschet is already a 'meh' candidate. He doesn't really excited anyone either way.

I mean, to be honest, there are only 'meh' candidates throughout the entire german political landscape.

Pretty sure if Merkel decided to run another time, she'd win again, that's how 'meh' everyone else is.

Yeah and Merkel is Queen boring. Then again Germans aren't supposed to like charismatic leaders. Thinking about it, in order to shift the vote, the parties need to change their policies. The Greens might be able to create a enthusiasm gap, especially because many would be CDU voters are disappointed with the handling of the pandemic. However, I think the understanding of many green voters makes that difficult. They are convinced only radical change will help and misunderstand the popularity of their agenda. They should consider themselves lucky that they might be in government.

[The Huskar Social Union]

I'm really curious about what kind of coalition will form

Same.

[Flohaland]

CDU Green. It might take a while though.

[The Blaatschapen]

CDU Green. It might take a while though.

I'm gonna say it:

Germany will have a new governing coalition sooner than the Netherlands.

[Baltenstein]

CDU Green. It might take a while though.

That was the only feasible outcome from the start, to be honest.

[Remnants of Exilvania]

CDU Green. It might take a while though.

That was the only feasible outcome from the start, to be honest.

Only question is if it will be just CDU-Green or if they'll mix some red or yellow in there. We shall see.

[Baltenstein]

That was the only feasible outcome from the start, to be honest.

Only question is if it will be just CDU-Green or if they'll mix some red or yellow in there. We shall see.

The flooding catastrophe will probably ensure the Greens get app 20% of the vote (Before that, Annalena Baerbock was busy pushing them below 10% almost single-handedly).
My prediction is CDU slightly below 30 and Greens 20, so a Black-Green coalition.
SPD will get app. 15%, AFD and FDP 10% each, Left party slightly above 5.
Laschet becomes chancellor, Baerbock becomes foreign minister.

[Remnants of Exilvania]

Only question is if it will be just CDU-Green or if they'll mix some red or yellow in there. We shall see.

The flooding catastrophe will probably ensure the Greens get app 20% of the vote (Before that, Annalena Baerbock was busy pushing them below 10% almost single-handedly).
My prediction is CDU slightly below 30 and Greens 20, so a Black-Green coalition.
SPD will get app. 15%, AFD and FDP 10% each, Left party slightly above 5.
Laschet becomes chancellor, Baerbock becomes foreign minister.

Your prediction would be a minority government. They don't have the guts for that, even if it might do the country some good.

Let's see if they'll flirt with the yellow or the red.

I'd be willing to bet on the Greens not breaking 20 but I used to always lose my bets back in high school so I gave that up long ago.

[Baltenstein]

The flooding catastrophe will probably ensure the Greens get app 20% of the vote (Before that, Annalena Baerbock was busy pushing them below 10% almost single-handedly).
My prediction is CDU slightly below 30 and Greens 20, so a Black-Green coalition.
SPD will get app. 15%, AFD and FDP 10% each, Left party slightly above 5.
Laschet becomes chancellor, Baerbock becomes foreign minister.

Your prediction would be a minority government. They don't have the guts for that, even if it might do the country some good.

Let's see if they'll flirt with the yellow or the red.

I'd be willing to bet on the Greens not breaking 20 but I used to always lose my bets back in high school so I gave that up long ago.

No, you can get an absolute parliamentary majority with less then 50% of the vote. Invalid and minor party votes do not get parliamentary representation.

[Hhurria]

Your prediction would be a minority government. They don't have the guts for that, even if it might do the country some good.

Let's see if they'll flirt with the yellow or the red.

I'd be willing to bet on the Greens not breaking 20 but I used to always lose my bets back in high school so I gave that up long ago.

No, you can get an absolute parliamentary majority with less then 50% of the vote. Invalid and minor party votes do not get parliamentary representation.

And then there's the Überhangmandäten and Ausgleichmandäten - which can ensure that the majority goes up even further (or indeed; becomes even slimmer) during the term of the Bundestag...

[Flohaland]

An election result where CDU and the Greens have a combined total less than 50% is possible, nut on that case I don't think a minority government is off the table.

[Shrillland]

All major parties in favour of reducing the EEG(Renewable Energy Sources Act) surcharge, including the Greens

[Baltenstein]

Also, Baerbock is caught up in a "scandal" - again - due to having quoted the "n word".

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-greens-ca ... a-58637058

With just two months to go before Germany heads to the polls to elect a new chancellor, the Green Party's candidate, Annalena Baerbock, on Sunday apologized for using the N-word during an interview.

Baerbock has emerged as the main rival to Armin Laschet (CDU) in the race to succeed Angela Merkel, but both candidates have attracted criticism for inappropriate gestures over the last week.

On Sunday, the Greens candidate said she used the N-word while retelling a story to the Central Council of Jews in Germany. The story was about a schoolchild in her neighborhood who refused to complete a worksheet containing the racial slur. Baerbock praised the pupil for his anti-racist stance. The interaction was recorded as part of the interview which is set to air on August 1.

"Unfortunately, in the recording of the interview, I quoted the N-word. That was wrong and I'm sorry," Baerbock said in a nine-part series of tweets.

The word in question is the German word "Neger" - an antiquated term from a more chauvinist time which you shouldn't use to adress or describe people of African background. It wasn't and isn't comparable to the evil "N with a double-G" word from US English however. If anything, "negro" would be the most direct equivalent.
The idea of not even quoting it, lest you summon its inherent evil or something, Lord Voldemort style, on the other hand...has a certain magical-religious quality to it.

[The Blaatschapen]

Also, Baerbock is caught up in a "scandal" - again - due to having quoted the "n word".

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-greens-ca ... a-58637058

With just two months to go before Germany heads to the polls to elect a new chancellor, the Green Party's candidate, Annalena Baerbock, on Sunday apologized for using the N-word during an interview.

Baerbock has emerged as the main rival to Armin Laschet (CDU) in the race to succeed Angela Merkel, but both candidates have attracted criticism for inappropriate gestures over the last week.

On Sunday, the Greens candidate said she used the N-word while retelling a story to the Central Council of Jews in Germany. The story was about a schoolchild in her neighborhood who refused to complete a worksheet containing the racial slur. Baerbock praised the pupil for his anti-racist stance. The interaction was recorded as part of the interview which is set to air on August 1.

"Unfortunately, in the recording of the interview, I quoted the N-word. That was wrong and I'm sorry," Baerbock said in a nine-part series of tweets.

The word in question is the German word "Neger" - an antiquated term from a more chauvinist time which you shouldn't use to adress or describe people of African background. It wasn't and isn't comparable to the evil "N with a double-G" word from US English however. If anything, "negro" would be the most direct equivalent.
The idea of not even quoting it, lest you summon its inherent evil or something, Lord Voldemort style, on the other hand...has a certain magical-religious quality to it.

It ought to be alright if she used the Konjunktiv in the rest of the sentence