German Politics I: Turn Left at the Traffic Light

[Shrillland]

And the CDU/CSU has another interesting little tidbit in their manifesto: A free Interrail EU train ticket for everyone turning 18

In the meantime, CDU/CSU is now firmly in the lead 28-21 over the Greens, the trend shows a similar lead

Die Linke's slightly down in Thuringia in what's now a three-way race for the lead with AfD and CDU

CDU and Greens are now neck and neck in Berlin

[Bear Stearns]

Vote Hohenzollern

[The Huskar Social Union]

And the CDU/CSU has another interesting little tidbit in their manifesto: A free Interrail EU train ticket for everyone turning 18

In the meantime, CDU/CSU is now firmly in the lead 28-21 over the Greens, the trend shows a similar lead

Die Linke's slightly down in Thuringia in what's now a three-way race for the lead with AfD and CDU

CDU and Greens are now neck and neck in Berlin

So reckon the CDU will win the general election then?

[Remnants of Exilvania]

And the CDU/CSU has another interesting little tidbit in their manifesto: A free Interrail EU train ticket for everyone turning 18

In the meantime, CDU/CSU is now firmly in the lead 28-21 over the Greens, the trend shows a similar lead

Die Linke's slightly down in Thuringia in what's now a three-way race for the lead with AfD and CDU

CDU and Greens are now neck and neck in Berlin

So reckon the CDU will win the general election then?

That they'd win it was never really in doubt. The question was and I suppose still is how far the Greens will catch up. And how far the SPD will drop.

Greens winning the election would've been an incredible out of nowhere victory. SPD was unlikely after everything that's happened. Everything else was fringe.

[Shrillland]

So reckon the CDU will win the general election then?

That they'd win it was never really in doubt. The question was and I suppose still is how far the Greens will catch up. And how far the SPD will drop.

Greens winning the election would've been an incredible out of nowhere victory. SPD was unlikely after everything that's happened. Everything else was fringe.

It was in doubt for a bit until the fuel tax proposal leaked out....and the internal divisions on sending arms to Ukraine.

[Thermodolia]

Vote Hohenzollern

Super based

[Baltenstein]

That they'd win it was never really in doubt. The question was and I suppose still is how far the Greens will catch up. And how far the SPD will drop.

Greens winning the election would've been an incredible out of nowhere victory. SPD was unlikely after everything that's happened. Everything else was fringe.

It was in doubt for a bit until the fuel tax proposal leaked out....and the internal divisions on sending arms to Ukraine.

Not just that. There was a string of fuck-ups - both concerning Green chancellor candidate Baerbock* and the party as a whole** - which saw them plummet in the polls.
It's always like this. As soon as the Greens start polling above average in the polls, they seem to suffer from some kind of glitch where they believe that they already are the government and start screwing around, coming up with bright ideas of reinforcing their image as "Verbotspartei" (party of bans) right in the middle of a pre-election campaign, where you are supposed to lure people in by hold a carrot in front of their face, not scare them away with waving a stick above their heads.
Of course they will still score higher than at the last elections (mainly because the SPD and the Left are performing even poorer then them) but probably below 20%.

* First she "forgot" to declare some corona bonus and christmas bonus payments (why does a party leader even need a Corona bonus?) at the tax office. Then she was caught to have repeatedly doctored her Curriculum Vitae, to make it appear as if she had done something more in her life other than getting a studies degree and party activism.

** Just now, there is an scandal (if that's what you want to call it, altough the term 'bad comedy' might be more appropriate) afflicting the Greens of the Saarland federal state that is making national headlines.

[Remnants of Exilvania]

I mean, all the polls aside tho, there was never a reason to doubt that the CDU would still win the election as the strongest party.

The Greens sat at <10% in the last elections. I don't care what the polls said, they were not going to instantly rise from one of the weakest parties in parliament to the strongest. It was just not going to happen. They'll be stronger, easily, what with their main talking points becoming more and more important in public discourse and with the other left parties just failing hilariously but they won't beat the CDU yet.

[Shrillland]

It was in doubt for a bit until the fuel tax proposal leaked out....and the internal divisions on sending arms to Ukraine.

Not just that. There was a string of fuck-ups - both concerning Green chancellor candidate Baerbock* and the party as a whole** - which saw them plummet in the polls.
It's always like this. As soon as the Greens start polling above average in the polls, they seem to suffer from some kind of glitch where they believe that they already are the government and start screwing around, coming up with bright ideas of reinforcing their image as "Verbotspartei" (party of bans) right in the middle of a pre-election campaign, where you are supposed to lure people in by hold a carrot in front of their face, not scare them away with waving a stick above their heads.
Of course they will still score higher than at the last elections (mainly because the SPD and the Left are performing even poorer then them) but probably below 20%.

* First she "forgot" to declare some corona bonus and christmas bonus payments (why does a party leader even need a Corona bonus?) at the tax office. Then she was caught to have repeatedly doctored her Curriculum Vitae, to make it appear as if she had done something more in her life other than getting a studies degree and party activism.

** Just now, there is an scandal (if that's what you want to call it, altough the term 'bad comedy' might be more appropriate) afflicting the Greens of the Saarland federal state that is making national headlines.

So...the Greens are falling apart...partially because a man in Saarland took the top place on the list. Why don't they just change the Women's Statute to allow anyone to take the top spot if they're popular within the party?

[The Huskar Social Union]

Wont lie, seeing the greens tank like that is sad but kind of hilarious. Maybe they will learn for next time.

[Shrillland]

The latest Leaders' Debate was last night, and centre stage was Nord Stream 2

[Baltenstein]

So...the Greens are falling apart...partially because a man in Saarland took the top place on the list. Why don't they just change the Women's Statute to allow anyone to take the top spot if they're popular within the party?

Something something, patriarchy, something something.

Wont lie, seeing the greens tank like that is sad but kind of hilarious. Maybe they will learn for next time.

They never do.

I remember this exact same scenario back in the time before the elections of 2013.

Opinion polling 2009-2013

Note that you can pinpoint the exact moment when the polls were starting to give the Greens delusions of grandeur.

[The Huskar Social Union]

So...the Greens are falling apart...partially because a man in Saarland took the top place on the list. Why don't they just change the Women's Statute to allow anyone to take the top spot if they're popular within the party?

Something something, patriarchy, something something.

Wont lie, seeing the greens tank like that is sad but kind of hilarious. Maybe they will learn for next time.

They never do.

I remember this exact same scenario back in the time before the elections of 2013.

Opinion polling 2009-2013

Note that you can pinpoint the exact moment when the polls where starting to give the Greens delusions of grandeur.

lmao fuck sake greens.

[Shrillland]

Baerbock accused of plagiarism used in her recent book by Austrian media scientist

[Shrillland]

Bundestag President Wolfgang Schäuble suggests CDU/CSU Minority Government possible after September

Because if there's one thing we've learned from every other country that has one, it's that Minority Governments are the very paragon of stability./s

[Baltenstein]

Baerbock accused of plagiarism used in her recent book by Austrian media scientist

It's over at this point. Virtually the only thing public opinion is talking about in regards to Baerbock are her goofs and lack of qualification and experience. Nobody is talking about her ideas, her agenda, the possible benefits she could bring as a chancellor etc. In a recent gallup, 60% of the people questioned considered Baerbock's candidacy to be a mistake. Out of two possible Green candidates, she was the wrong one. The people know it, the media know it, her political opponents know it, the more sensible parts of the Greens probably know it too but it's too late in the game now to change the candidate.
She'll get less than 20% of the vote (less than 15%, if the trend continues) and the Greens will probably become the CDU's junior partner, unless either the SPD or the FDP score higher.

[The Huskar Social Union]

Well the Greens fucked it then.

[Remnants of Exilvania]

Bundestag President Wolfgang Schäuble suggests CDU/CSU Minority Government possible after September

Because if there's one thing we've learned from every other country that has one, it's that Minority Governments are the very paragon of stability./s

The half to full year of coalition negoations of the last elections were such great and stable times too.

It's over at this point. Virtually the only thing public opinion is talking about in regards to Baerbock are her goofs and lack of qualification and experience. Nobody is talking about her ideas, her agenda, the possible benefits she could bring as a chancellor etc. In a recent gallup, 60% of the people questioned considered Baerbock's candidacy to be a mistake. Out of two possible Green candidates, she was the wrong one. The people know it, the media know it, her political opponents know it, the more sensible parts of the Greens probably know it too but it's too late in the game now to change the candidate.
She'll get less than 20% of the vote (less than 15%, if the trend continues) and the Greens will probably become the CDU's junior partner, unless either the SPD or the FDP score higher.

Was the same with AKK, wasn't it? Everyone suddenly focuses on tearing you down.

And as I learned while driving in the U-Bahn today, Greens are now polling under 20% for the first time. CDU polling at 30%. Looks like the polls are slowly getting closer to the likely reality of Greens winning votes but not enough, far from enough.

[Zephyrzon]

Bundestag President Wolfgang Schäuble suggests CDU/CSU Minority Government possible after September

Because if there's one thing we've learned from every other country that has one, it's that Minority Governments are the very paragon of stability./s

Schäuble is Mister MyWayOrTheHighway, so his suggestion for even less co-operation than usual is par for the course with him.

[Keira]

Baerbock? More like Baerhot.

It's unfortunate that I probably won't get a German leader to simp for. :c

[The Blaatschapen]

Baerbock? More like Baerhot.

It's unfortunate that I probably won't get a German leader to simp for. :c

I can attain German citizenship before the next next election (2025). But perhaps a bit too late to really have a campaign going.

So 2029 is potentially your earliest opportunity

[Shrillland]

First, spare a thought for everyone in NRW and Rhienland-Pfalz who are suffering in the floods on the Rhine and Ahr rivers(Over 1300 missing in one district in Rhienland-Pfalz).

Second, some more poll numbers as political news has been fairly quiet: In Mecklendurg-Vorpommern, the federal polls see the Greens cut in half down to 8% and CDU staying in the lead

Polls remain more or less unchanged in Rhienland-Pfalz

[The Huskar Social Union]

First, spare a thought for everyone in NRW and Rhienland-Pfalz who are suffering in the floods on the Rhine and Ahr rivers(Over 1300 missing in one district in Rhienland-Pfalz).

Second, some more poll numbers as political news has been fairly quiet: In Mecklendurg-Vorpommern, the federal polls see the Greens cut in half down to 8% and CDU staying in the lead

Polls remain more or less unchanged in Rhienland-Pfalz

Ah Green parties. They either seem to never take off or when they do they fuck themselves or get fucked by something else. (Germany, Ireland etc)

[Blattodean Dictyop]

Baerbock? More like Baerhot.

It's unfortunate that I probably won't get a German leader to simp for. :c

I can attain German citizenship before the next next election (2025). But perhaps a bit too late to really have a campaign going.

So 2029 is potentially your earliest opportunity

the SILF-Kanzler! We are here for it! Unless that makes us Scheep-shaggers...

--------------

Can anyone appreciate that by tanking her own campaign, Baerbock has also locked the CDU in with their worst candidate ever? He'll win even if he is found in bed with a live girl or a dead boy (or a barely alive sheep, at this point). Meaning the CDU will stay the course with Mr No-Change-Come-Hell-Or-High-Water.

High water is already here, where's Hell coming from?

[Shrillland]

I can attain German citizenship before the next next election (2025). But perhaps a bit too late to really have a campaign going.

So 2029 is potentially your earliest opportunity

the SILF-Kanzler! We are here for it! Unless that makes us Scheep-shaggers...

--------------

Can anyone appreciate that by tanking her own campaign, Baerbock has also locked the CDU in with their worst candidate ever? He'll win even if he is found in bed with a live girl or a dead boy (or a barely alive sheep, at this point). Meaning the CDU will stay the course with Mr No-Change-Come-Hell-Or-High-Water.

High water is already here, where's Hell coming from?

Well, with all the high water in the West...I'd say Brandenburg.