German Politics I: Turn Left at the Traffic Light

[Shrillland]

We now know what's brought CDU/CSU back from the brink...mostly petrol taxes.

The Greens have been proposing a 16 cent increase in federal petrol taxes and speed limits on all the remaining unlimited sections of the Autobahn. On top of that, Baerbock and Habeck's disputes over sending arms to Ukraine and Baerbock's confession that she didn't properly disclose her income(€25,000 in bonuses in the last three years despite the Greens proudly saying that never paid their leaders a separate salary)have put the Greens seven points behind CDU/CSU.

Petrol price surge equates CDU vote surge.

According to the Der Spiegel polls, yes. That's about the only issue everyone's opposed to seeing....never mind that a Traffic Light Coalition or even just a Red-Green would likely see it reduced if not cut entirely from the agenda.

[Shrillland]

Meanwhile, the last polls for Sunday's vote in Sachsen-Anhalt are in, and it looks like the CDU are safely back up above AfD.

Since Esken's ruled out continuing the coalition, it'll likely be a Jamaica Government coming out of this.

Baerbock's proposing amendments to the Basic Law that would guarantee the right to fast internet and to create equal living conditions

[Remnants of Exilvania]

Baerbock's proposing amendments to the Basic Law that would guarantee the right to fast internet and to create equal living conditions

...what?

[Isislam]

Did the CDU just win in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Sort of:

they received 36% of the votes
AfD got about 23% of the vote
Die Linke sink to about 10%
SPD sinks to just 8%
Look who's back: the FDP at 7%!
Greens stick to 6%

Cue all the wrong lessons to be learned:

1. Laschet is a great leader! - Nope, local prime-minister Haseloff is a great local leader.
2. AfD can be beaten - in the not so urban parts of the East, maybe, but not in the West, and behold Berlin.
3. The CSU should back off now - nope, not if they want to keep Bavaria
4. The Greens are not a serious contender - not in states where they have little support - please note that the Greens still increased their share of the vote by 1/6 of their previous result in 2016...
5. All coalitions are now possible, but none without the CDU - nope, all are possible - ALL

source: https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/in ... 25281.html

[Shrillland]

Did the CDU just win in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Sort of:

they received 36% of the votes
AfD got about 23% of the vote
Die Linke sink to about 10%
SPD sinks to just 8%
Look who's back: the FDP at 7%!
Greens stick to 6%

Cue all the wrong lessons to be learned:

1. Laschet is a great leader! - Nope, local prime-minister Haseloff is a great local leader.
2. AfD can be beaten - in the not so urban parts of the East, maybe, but not in the West, and behold Berlin.
3. The CSU should back off now - nope, not if they want to keep Bavaria
4. The Greens are not a serious contender - not in states where they have little support - please note that the Greens still increased their share of the vote by 1/6 of their previous result in 2016...
5. All coalitions are now possible, but none without the CDU - nope, all are possible - ALL

source: https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/in ... 25281.html

CDU definitely overperformed the polls by 7-10 points while all the left parties slightly underperformed by about two points apiece. FDP more or less got on target. As for all coalitions being possible, SPD's already shot that idea down on both the federal and state level, so the most likely result now is a Jamaica Government with 45 seats according to the exit polls. Still, it will be seen as a defeat for the Greens despite doing better than '16, and they'll see their poll numbers slump further.

[The Blaatschapen]

Did the CDU just win in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Sort of:

they received 36% of the votes
AfD got about 23% of the vote
Die Linke sink to about 10%
SPD sinks to just 8%
Look who's back: the FDP at 7%!
Greens stick to 6%

Cue all the wrong lessons to be learned:

1. Laschet is a great leader! - Nope, local prime-minister Haseloff is a great local leader.
2. AfD can be beaten - in the not so urban parts of the East, maybe, but not in the West, and behold Berlin.
3. The CSU should back off now - nope, not if they want to keep Bavaria
4. The Greens are not a serious contender - not in states where they have little support - please note that the Greens still increased their share of the vote by 1/6 of their previous result in 2016...
5. All coalitions are now possible, but none without the CDU - nope, all are possible - ALL

source: https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/in ... 25281.html

I count 90% when I add it all together.

So I took a different source, where I got the fw as well, but it still didn't add up to 100 or close to that. And 10 percent missing is too big for rounding errors.

What am I overlooking?

[Shrillland]

Did the CDU just win in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Sort of:

they received 36% of the votes
AfD got about 23% of the vote
Die Linke sink to about 10%
SPD sinks to just 8%
Look who's back: the FDP at 7%!
Greens stick to 6%

Cue all the wrong lessons to be learned:

1. Laschet is a great leader! - Nope, local prime-minister Haseloff is a great local leader.
2. AfD can be beaten - in the not so urban parts of the East, maybe, but not in the West, and behold Berlin.
3. The CSU should back off now - nope, not if they want to keep Bavaria
4. The Greens are not a serious contender - not in states where they have little support - please note that the Greens still increased their share of the vote by 1/6 of their previous result in 2016...
5. All coalitions are now possible, but none without the CDU - nope, all are possible - ALL

source: https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/in ... 25281.html

I count 90% when I add it all together.

So I took a different source, where I got the fw as well, but it still didn't add up to 100 or close to that. And 10 percent missing is too big for rounding errors.

What am I overlooking?

The rest is to really small or local parties that didn't make the threshold or spoiled ballots.

[Shrillland]

We now have the full seat count in Sachsen-Anhalt:

CDU: 40(+10)
AfD: 23(-1)
Die Linke: 12(-4)
SPD: 9(-2)
FDP: 7(:7)
Greens: 6(+1)

14 overhangs and levelers were added to get this number, and a CDU-led Jamaica Government is possible with 53 seats.

[Arisyan]

We now have the full seat count in Sachsen-Anhalt:

CDU: 40(+10)
AfD: 23(-1)
Die Linke: 12(-4)
SPD: 9(-2)
FDP: 7(:7)
Greens: 6(+1)

14 overhangs and levelers were added to get this number, and a CDU-led Jamaica Government is possible with 53 seats.

A disappointing result, but not entirely bad. The Greens made gains, and the AfD lost seats and votes. Overall, not a good result but not bad.

[Shrillland]

We now have the full seat count in Sachsen-Anhalt:

CDU: 40(+10)
AfD: 23(-1)
Die Linke: 12(-4)
SPD: 9(-2)
FDP: 7(:7)
Greens: 6(+1)

14 overhangs and levelers were added to get this number, and a CDU-led Jamaica Government is possible with 53 seats.

A disappointing result, but not entirely bad. The Greens made gains, and the AfD lost seats and votes. Overall, not a good result but not bad.

I'm surprised how well the CDU outperformed their expected count, I knew the petrol tax increase was unpopular on a federal level, but I didn't think it would cause such an upswing. On the other hand, Haseloff's personal popularity and the shock polls showing an AfD lead might've spooked some people back into the fold.

[Bienenhalde]

So when will the parties publish their full platforms? And will there be a quiz for which party one aligns with?

[Shrillland]

So when will the parties publish their full platforms? And will there be a quiz for which party one aligns with?

Well, I think the Green Party Congress is this weekend, so we should have something there, the rest in the next few weeks.

[Shrillland]

Laschet is defending Health Minister Jens Spahn after SPD calls for Spahn's resignation over potentiall defective masks

Baerbock formally chosen at Green Party Congress

At Thuringia's State FDP Congress, Thomas Kemmerich, the leader that was temporarily Minister-President during the whole AfD mess, was re-elected with 66.7% of the vote

[The Huskar Social Union]

Laschet is defending Health Minister Jens Spahn after SPD calls for Spahn's resignation over potentiall defective masks

Baerbock formally chosen at Green Party Congress

At Thuringia's State FDP Congress, Thomas Kemmerich, the leader that was temporarily Minister-President during the whole AfD mess, was re-elected with 66.7% of the vote

only 28 percent believe that the Green leader is suitable as Chancellor, 64 percent doubt that.

oof

[Shrillland]

The Greens now have a manifesto

Here's the major points:
A 70% CO2 reduction by 2030
Carbon tax to go up to €60 per tonne by '23
15 million electric vehicles by 2030
The end of limitless speed on the Autobahn with a new speed limit of 130 km/h
Urban speed limits reduced from 50 to 30 km/h
Higher marginal tax rates for those making more than €100,000 and a 1% wealth tax for those with assets over €2 million
A cap on rent increases to 2.5% per year
Minimum wage increased to €12
Hartz IV benefits(basically Germany's answer to Universal Credit for the long-term unemployed)to go up by at least €50 a month and to become a guarantee rather than a contract
Limited use of drones in defence
Rejection of Nord Stream 2

[The Huskar Social Union]

The Greens now have a manifesto

Here's the major points:
A 70% CO2 reduction by 2030
Carbon tax to go up to €60 per tonne by '23
15 million electric vehicles by 2030
The end of limitless speed on the Autobahn with a new speed limit of 130 km/h
Urban speed limits reduced from 50 to 30 km/h
Higher marginal tax rates for those making more than €100,000 and a 1% wealth tax for those with assets over €2 million
A cap on rent increases to 2.5% per year
Minimum wage increased to €12
Hartz IV benefits(basically Germany's answer to Universal Credit for the long-term unemployed)to go up by at least €50 a month and to become a guarantee rather than a contract
Limited use of drones in defence
Rejection of Nord Stream 2

How do you reckon these policies will be received in germany by the public?

[Shrillland]

The Greens now have a manifesto

Here's the major points:
A 70% CO2 reduction by 2030
Carbon tax to go up to €60 per tonne by '23
15 million electric vehicles by 2030
The end of limitless speed on the Autobahn with a new speed limit of 130 km/h
Urban speed limits reduced from 50 to 30 km/h
Higher marginal tax rates for those making more than €100,000 and a 1% wealth tax for those with assets over €2 million
A cap on rent increases to 2.5% per year
Minimum wage increased to €12
Hartz IV benefits(basically Germany's answer to Universal Credit for the long-term unemployed)to go up by at least €50 a month and to become a guarantee rather than a contract
Limited use of drones in defence
Rejection of Nord Stream 2

How do you reckon these policies will be received in germany by the public?

So far, they haven't really been turned off by any of the proposals before now save for the petrol tax increase, so I can't say for sure.

[Shrillland]

Major pro-business lobbying group INSM now under fire and accused of anti-Semitism after latest anti-Greens posts

Henning Conle's illegal donations to AfD may have been bigger than previously known according to former party leader Frauke Petry, including donations to their social media campaigns through a Swiss advertising company

[Remnants of Exilvania]

The Greens now have a manifesto

Here's the major points:
A 70% CO2 reduction by 2030
Carbon tax to go up to €60 per tonne by '23
15 million electric vehicles by 2030
The end of limitless speed on the Autobahn with a new speed limit of 130 km/h
Urban speed limits reduced from 50 to 30 km/h
Higher marginal tax rates for those making more than €100,000 and a 1% wealth tax for those with assets over €2 million
A cap on rent increases to 2.5% per year
Minimum wage increased to €12
Hartz IV benefits(basically Germany's answer to Universal Credit for the long-term unemployed)to go up by at least €50 a month and to become a guarantee rather than a contract
Limited use of drones in defence
Rejection of Nord Stream 2

How do you reckon these policies will be received in germany by the public?

I feel the urban speed limit might be not so well liked. Not sure about the rest.

The electric vehicles one seems a bit utopic/far flung.

[Shrillland]

In Thuringia, a few CDU dissidents may lead to the September 26 state election not happening after all

[Shrillland]

Die Linke's congress will be held this weekend, with a manifesto on Sunday

[Dresderstan]

How do you reckon these policies will be received in germany by the public?

I feel the urban speed limit might be not so well liked. Not sure about the rest.

The electric vehicles one seems a bit utopic/far flung.

The end of limitless speed is where I draw the line.

[Shrillland]

I feel the urban speed limit might be not so well liked. Not sure about the rest.

The electric vehicles one seems a bit utopic/far flung.

The end of limitless speed is where I draw the line.

130 km/h is still pretty fast, only Texas in the US goes faster at 140 in the deserts, and Germany doesn't have any terrain like that.

[Shrillland]

Today was the last day for the Bundestag before summer recess, and CDU/CSU have set up their manifesto.

Here's the basics:
No tax increases in the next four years
Maintaining Maternal Pension 3(pretty much what it sounds like) until 2030(CSU wanted to scrap it outright)
Climate-neutral status by 2045
A new Generation Pension that would pay monthly stipends to children
A massive reduction of bureaucracy(i.e., Civil Service redundancies)

[Remnants of Exilvania]

A massive reduction of bureaucracy(i.e., Civil Service redundancies)

Well there certainly go the votes of the civil servants.

From my time in the civil service, granted it was in Berlin where it is supposedly extra bad, everyone complained that the administration was entirely understaffed and overworked, all so the politicians could loudly proclaim how much money they had saved. It's gonna be interesting how all this works, what with the big generational change as most of the civil servants are about to go into their pensions.