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Dawn of a New Tag(A German Election Thread)

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

Who do you support?

CDU/CSU
20
33%
SPD
7
12%
AfD
8
13%
FDP
0
No votes
Die Linke
14
23%
Alliance 90/The Greens
10
17%
Other
1
2%
 
Total votes : 60

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Shrillland
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Dawn of a New Tag(A German Election Thread)

Postby Shrillland » Sat Jan 16, 2021 6:34 am

I know, I know, this is way out in advance, but German elections often have news pretty far out if the last thread from 2017 is indicative of anything. The most likely date for the vote(and the state election rerun in Thuringia, caused after the infamous coalition fiasco in 2019) will be Sunday, September 26, but today(January 16) is the day that the governing CDU, in the permanent CDU/CSU Union, has finally elected a replacement for former leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who had to resign last year after the mess in Thuringia when the CDU decided to form a coalition with AfD, a coalition that was quickly abandoned.

Here's the story: https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/pragmatic-governor-laschet-elected-to-lead-merkel-s-party/ar-BB1cO0J5?li=AAggFp4

They've elected Armin Laschet, currently Minister-President of Nordrhein-Westfalen(North Rhine-Westfalia or NRW) and Deputy Federal Leader to lead the federal party for the 2021 vote, which will also be the first in nearly 20 years without Angela Merkel guiding them to victory. It was a close runoff between him and Merkel's predecessor, Friedrich Merz, and Maschet has vowed to continue Merkel's moderate stance while still being a bridge to the right of the party, led primarily by Merz. Merz won the first round by only five delegates, but the third-place candidate's(Bundestag Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Norbert Röttgen) supporters mostly went to Laschet to avoid the CDU going hard right.

The CDU/CSU is currently polling an average of 38%, the best showing for any party in decades(going back to West Germany), which could mean CDU/CSU may only need the FDP to form a government. Before Covid, their biggest challenge seemed to be coming from Alliance 90/The Greens, but they plummeted in the polls after Merkel's handling of the pandemic, considered on of the best responses in the world. They're still in second but only at about 17%. Just behind them are the SPD, who've already chosen Deputy Chancellor Olaf Scholz for their Chancellery candidate come September. Besides Merkel, several other major faces are retiring, including SPD's Maritn Schulz, the Father of the Bundestag, FDP's Hermann Solms, and Former AfD leader Frauke Petry.

Here's how the vote will go down. The Bundestag is an MMP legislature with 299 FPTP constituency seats and at least 299 PR seats using Sainte-Lague with a 5% threshold and divided among the 16 states. I say at least because the Bundestag also has a number of overhang seats that are meant to make the PR seat count mirror the FPTP seat count as close as possible. The current Bundestag, for example, has 111 of these seats, but there could be more or less depending on how the votes go.

Now to meet the parties. Something to keep in mind is that party leader doesn't automatically mean election leader, they will be counted separately if need be.

Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union in Bavaria(CDU/CSU) led by Armin Laschet(CDU) and Markus Soder(CSU): Centre-right, Christian Democratic, Liberal Conserative, Pro-Europe

Social Democratic Party(SPD) led by Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans with Olaf Scholz as Chancellery Candidate: Centre-left, Social Democratic, Pro-Europe

Alternative for Germany(AfD) led by Jörg Meuthen MEP and Tino Chrupalla: Far Right, German Nationalist, Eurosceptic, Right Populist, Anti-Immigrant, Anti-Islam

Free Democratic Party(FDP) led by Christian Lindner: Centre-right, Classical Liberal, Pro-Europe

Die Linke(The Left) led by Katja Kipping and Bernd Riexinger: Far Left, Democratic Socialist, Left Populist, Anti-Capitalist

Alliance 90/The Greens led by Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck: Centre-left, Green Policy, Pro-Europe

So, NSG. what's your take?

For me, in pure policy, I'd say Alliance 90/Greens, but if Laschet is committed to staying the course, I'll stand by him too. Germany's become something of a world power again under Merkel, and one that many in the world want to emulate for a change.
Last edited by Shrillland on Tue Feb 09, 2021 4:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Page » Sat Jan 16, 2021 6:48 am

In terms of ideology I mostly align with Die Linke, but if I actually could vote I might go with the Greens or SPD for strategic reasons. The Greens won the last municipal election here in Aachen by a lot which I think is kind of cool.

I just hope the AfD doesn't gain any more ground. Germany isn't nearly as vulnerable to the far-right taking power as other European countries but the amount of support they have is disturbingly high. I don't personally know anyone who supports them and I would not associate with an AfD supporter anyway. Those idiots have had a few anti-mask or anti-lockdown demonstrations in Aachen this year but only a few dozen people ever show up.
Last edited by Page on Sat Jan 16, 2021 6:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Shrillland » Sat Jan 16, 2021 6:49 am

Page wrote:In terms of ideology I mostly align with Die Linke, but if I actually could vote I might go with the Greens or SPD for strategic reasons. The Greens won the last municipal election here in Aachen by a lot which I think is kind of cool.

I just hope the AfD doesn't gain any more ground. Germany isn't nearly as vulnerable to the far-right taking power as other European countries but the amount of support they have is disturbingly high. I don't personally know anyone who supports them and I would not associate with an AfD supporter anyway. Those idiots have had a few anti-mask or anti-lockdown demonstrations in Aachen this year but only a few dozen people ever show up.


Makes sense, you're in Aachen, not Leipzig.
Last edited by Shrillland on Sat Jan 16, 2021 6:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby The Huskar Social Union » Sat Jan 16, 2021 7:51 am

Ideologically id lean towards the SPD, Die Linka and the Greens so im happy for any of those to make gains i guess. But i know the CDU/CSU tend to dominate elections.
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Postby Nuroblav » Sat Jan 16, 2021 7:59 am

Die Linke seem to be closest to my views, specifically the Emancipatory Left faction (whose co-founder seems to be chairperson). Can't say I know enough about the party to have a solid opinion though, nor would I quite a fan of the other factions.

And yeah, AfD's high level of support is worrying.
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Postby Shrillland » Sat Jan 16, 2021 8:09 am

Nuroblav wrote:Die Linke seem to be closest to my views, specifically the Emancipatory Left faction (whose co-founder seems to be chairperson). Can't say I know enough about the party to have a solid opinion though, nor would I quite a fan of the other factions.

And yeah, AfD's high level of support is worrying.


It's actually lower than its been in a while thanks to Covid, they're barely hanging on to 10%, and mostly in their eastern strongholds.
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Postby Baltenstein » Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:39 am

The "thrill" of this election will consist largely of guesstimating which party (Greens, SPD, FDP) will get to become the CDU's junior partner. I honestly cannot think of a feasible sceario where the CDU doesn't auto-win.

That fact in itself doesn't speak too well of the vitality of Germany's multi-party system. OTOH, if the alternative is US-style partisan polarization, it's probably the lesser evil.
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Postby Shrillland » Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:43 am

Baltenstein wrote:The "thrill" of this election will consist largely of guesstimating which party (Greens, SPD, FDP) will get to become the CDU's junior partner. I honestly cannot think of a feasible sceario where the CDU doesn't auto-win.

That fact in itself doesn't speak too well of the vitality of Germany's multi-party system. OTOH, if the alternative is US-style partisan polarization, it's probably the lesser evil.


Oh, the multi-party system's strong enough in Germany(there won't be a repeat of the LDP in Japan), it's just that Merkel has basically been Germany's hand for 20 years and is just universally popular around the world....that and governments that handle the pandemic well tend to be rewarded.
Last edited by Shrillland on Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Agarntrop » Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:43 am

Page wrote:In terms of ideology I mostly align with Die Linke, but if I actually could vote I might go with the Greens or SPD for strategic reasons. The Greens won the last municipal election here in Aachen by a lot which I think is kind of cool.

I just hope the AfD doesn't gain any more ground. Germany isn't nearly as vulnerable to the far-right taking power as other European countries but the amount of support they have is disturbingly high. I don't personally know anyone who supports them and I would not associate with an AfD supporter anyway. Those idiots have had a few anti-mask or anti-lockdown demonstrations in Aachen this year but only a few dozen people ever show up.

You live in Aachen? I've always assumed you were from the US
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Postby Baltenstein » Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:44 am

Page wrote:In terms of ideology I mostly align with Die Linke, but if I actually could vote I might go with the Greens or SPD for strategic reasons. The Greens won the last municipal election here in Aachen by a lot which I think is kind of cool.

I just hope the AfD doesn't gain any more ground. Germany isn't nearly as vulnerable to the far-right taking power as other European countries but the amount of support they have is disturbingly high.


Frankly, it would be strange if Germany would somehow be the one magical excetion to the rule of the rise of anti-globalization/establishment populism. I'd say the only reason why the AFD's support isn't even higher (I'd put the overall level of their potential support at 25-30% or so of the German electorate) is the crucial of a charismatic larger-then-life caudillo type individual in the German political scene. The modern history of right-wing populism throughout Western countries has shown that it cannot succeed without such a figure.
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Postby Shrillland » Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:47 am

Baltenstein wrote:
Page wrote:In terms of ideology I mostly align with Die Linke, but if I actually could vote I might go with the Greens or SPD for strategic reasons. The Greens won the last municipal election here in Aachen by a lot which I think is kind of cool.

I just hope the AfD doesn't gain any more ground. Germany isn't nearly as vulnerable to the far-right taking power as other European countries but the amount of support they have is disturbingly high.


Frankly, it would be strange if Germany would somehow be the one magical excetion to the rule of the rise of anti-globalization/establishment populism. I'd say the only reason why the AFD's support isn't even higher (I'd put the overall level of their potential support at 25-30% or so of the German electorate) is the crucial of a charismatic larger-then-life caudillo type individual in the German political scene. The modern history of right-wing populism throughout Western countries has shown that it cannot succeed without such a figure.


That's mostly because, since the war, Germany tends to stamp them out considering how well it went last time for them.
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Postby Baltenstein » Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:47 am

Shrillland wrote:
Baltenstein wrote:The "thrill" of this election will consist largely of guesstimating which party (Greens, SPD, FDP) will get to become the CDU's junior partner. I honestly cannot think of a feasible sceario where the CDU doesn't auto-win.

That fact in itself doesn't speak too well of the vitality of Germany's multi-party system. OTOH, if the alternative is US-style partisan polarization, it's probably the lesser evil.


Oh, the multi-party system's strong enough in Germany(there won't be a repeat of the LDP in Japan), it's just that Merkel has basically been Germany's hand for 20 years and is just universally popular around the world....that and governments that handle the pandemic well tend to be rewarded.


I do not consider a multi-party system where the (former) big centre-left party has become an after-thought joke that will be lucky to score 10% and the big centre-right party has devolved into an amorphous centrist mass that automatically wins all national elections of past, present and future "strong". A healthy political system thrives through competition and change.
O'er the hills and o'er the main.
Through Flanders, Portugal and Spain.
King George commands and we obey.
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Postby Bienenhalde » Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:49 am

What is the chance that Söder will be the CDU chancellor candidate instead of Laschet?
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Postby Agarntrop » Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:50 am

Baltenstein wrote:
Page wrote:In terms of ideology I mostly align with Die Linke, but if I actually could vote I might go with the Greens or SPD for strategic reasons. The Greens won the last municipal election here in Aachen by a lot which I think is kind of cool.

I just hope the AfD doesn't gain any more ground. Germany isn't nearly as vulnerable to the far-right taking power as other European countries but the amount of support they have is disturbingly high.


Frankly, it would be strange if Germany would somehow be the one magical excetion to the rule of the rise of anti-globalization/establishment populism. I'd say the only reason why the AFD's support isn't even higher (I'd put the overall level of their potential support at 25-30% or so of the German electorate) is the crucial of a charismatic larger-then-life caudillo type individual in the German political scene. The modern history of right-wing populism throughout Western countries has shown that it cannot succeed without such a figure.

Have you forgotten the existence of a certain Adolf H?
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Postby Baltenstein » Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:50 am

Shrillland wrote:
Baltenstein wrote:
Frankly, it would be strange if Germany would somehow be the one magical excetion to the rule of the rise of anti-globalization/establishment populism. I'd say the only reason why the AFD's support isn't even higher (I'd put the overall level of their potential support at 25-30% or so of the German electorate) is the crucial of a charismatic larger-then-life caudillo type individual in the German political scene. The modern history of right-wing populism throughout Western countries has shown that it cannot succeed without such a figure.


That's mostly because, since the war, Germany tends to stamp them out considering how well it went last time for them.


You think so.

I'd say it's simply that such an individual does not currently exist, not that the German political system and society are somehow better set-up or more enlightened than other countries in that regard.
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Postby Baltenstein » Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:50 am

Agarntrop wrote:
Baltenstein wrote:
Frankly, it would be strange if Germany would somehow be the one magical excetion to the rule of the rise of anti-globalization/establishment populism. I'd say the only reason why the AFD's support isn't even higher (I'd put the overall level of their potential support at 25-30% or so of the German electorate) is the crucial of a charismatic larger-then-life caudillo type individual in the German political scene. The modern history of right-wing populism throughout Western countries has shown that it cannot succeed without such a figure.

Have you forgotten the existence of a certain Adolf H?


Your point being what, exactly?
Last edited by Baltenstein on Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Shrillland » Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:53 am

Bienenhalde wrote:What is the chance that Söder will be the CDU chancellor candidate instead of Laschet?


Not much of one, CSU prefers to stay in Bavaria since regional interests are a core tenet of their platform.
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Postby Agarntrop » Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:54 am

Baltenstein wrote:
Agarntrop wrote:Have you forgotten the existence of a certain Adolf H?


Your point being what, exactly?

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Postby Shrillland » Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:55 am

Baltenstein wrote:
Shrillland wrote:
That's mostly because, since the war, Germany tends to stamp them out considering how well it went last time for them.


You think so.

I'd say it's simply that such an individual does not currently exist, not that the German political system and society are somehow better set-up or more enlightened than other countries in that regard.


That shows that he was more or less stamped out and ignored by the populace in Hamburg. Granted, if it was Brandenburg or Saxony, he might have gotten more support, but even then the federal parties would isolate him like they've been doing with AfD.
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Postby Shrillland » Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:57 am

Baltenstein wrote:
Shrillland wrote:
Oh, the multi-party system's strong enough in Germany(there won't be a repeat of the LDP in Japan), it's just that Merkel has basically been Germany's hand for 20 years and is just universally popular around the world....that and governments that handle the pandemic well tend to be rewarded.


I do not consider a multi-party system where the (former) big centre-left party has become an after-thought joke that will be lucky to score 10% and the big centre-right party has devolved into an amorphous centrist mass that automatically wins all national elections of past, present and future "strong". A healthy political system thrives through competition and change.


As for the SDP's collapse, that's just because the left is changing and heading towards eco-social democracy instead of classic social democracy, as the Green surge pre-Covid shows.
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Postby Baltenstein » Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:59 am

Agarntrop wrote:
Baltenstein wrote:
Your point being what, exactly?

Germans are deterred from the alt right by their recent and tragic history with it


Except in my earlier post I gave you an exampe of a German right-wing politician who scored a surprise success in the very first elections he participated in.

That shows that he was more or less stamped out and ignored by the populace in Hamburg.


Except he wasn't. He catapulted himself to victory and into government on his very first try. He then fell from a grace because he produced almost nothing but scandals and self-destruction during his years in offce. Before that however, voters did him put in office though.
Last edited by Baltenstein on Sat Jan 16, 2021 10:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Through Flanders, Portugal and Spain.
King George commands and we obey.
Over the hills and far away.


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Postby Baltenstein » Sat Jan 16, 2021 10:02 am

Shrillland wrote:
Baltenstein wrote:
I do not consider a multi-party system where the (former) big centre-left party has become an after-thought joke that will be lucky to score 10% and the big centre-right party has devolved into an amorphous centrist mass that automatically wins all national elections of past, present and future "strong". A healthy political system thrives through competition and change.


As for the SDP's collapse, that's just because the left is changing and heading towards eco-social democracy instead of classic social democracy, as the Green surge pre-Covid shows.


There is a clear electorate upper-limit to the "academic liberalism" platform of the Greens, and it's not enough for aiming at the chancellery (that would require more than 30% of the vote).

The SPD is collapsing for the same reasons social democracy is collapsing in most Western countries, the inability to reconcile US-style liberalism with their traditional blue-collar voter base.
O'er the hills and o'er the main.
Through Flanders, Portugal and Spain.
King George commands and we obey.
Over the hills and far away.


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Postby Crylante » Sat Jan 16, 2021 10:08 am

I think AfD will probably, looking at polling, lose seats from 2017.

I also expect the two parties will probably pick Soeder over Laschet and I think a CDU/CSU-Gruene coalition is fairly likely.

Would probably vote Gruene with the preference of the left of the party, and my predictions may prove wrong as I am after all English, not German, aber ich spreche ein bisschen Deutsch.
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Postby Page » Sat Jan 16, 2021 10:25 am

Agarntrop wrote:
Page wrote:In terms of ideology I mostly align with Die Linke, but if I actually could vote I might go with the Greens or SPD for strategic reasons. The Greens won the last municipal election here in Aachen by a lot which I think is kind of cool.

I just hope the AfD doesn't gain any more ground. Germany isn't nearly as vulnerable to the far-right taking power as other European countries but the amount of support they have is disturbingly high. I don't personally know anyone who supports them and I would not associate with an AfD supporter anyway. Those idiots have had a few anti-mask or anti-lockdown demonstrations in Aachen this year but only a few dozen people ever show up.

You live in Aachen? I've always assumed you were from the US


I'm an American. I married a German woman in 2016 and have lived here since.
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Postby Agarntrop » Sat Jan 16, 2021 10:44 am

Page wrote:
Agarntrop wrote:You live in Aachen? I've always assumed you were from the US


I'm an American. I married a German woman in 2016 and have lived here since.

Ah. I have been to Aachen.
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