Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 8:48 pm
Yeah, there's no saving the Republican voter base: GOP voters choose Trump. However, Trump does poorly enough with "traditional Republicans" that while it would be enough for him to win the nomination in 2024, they wouldn't be enough to carry him to victory, especially since Independents support his removal and oppose him as a nominee.
Yet, while Republicans appear united, it's the Trump Type Republicans that are very united: Just 1% of Trump Republicans — versus about one-in-four traditional Republicans — think Trump should be removed from office. The Trump Republicans are still large enough of a group to either stay and dominate primary politics or walk away if Trump is cast out, which would weaken the GOP's force posture against Democrats.
That said, I still think McConnell and others will take the short term pain over the long term gains they can make.
Yet, while Republicans appear united, it's the Trump Type Republicans that are very united: Just 1% of Trump Republicans — versus about one-in-four traditional Republicans — think Trump should be removed from office. The Trump Republicans are still large enough of a group to either stay and dominate primary politics or walk away if Trump is cast out, which would weaken the GOP's force posture against Democrats.
That said, I still think McConnell and others will take the short term pain over the long term gains they can make.