American Politics Impeachment: 2 fast? No, we're 2 furious

[Flarbinia]

There's a tipping point for timid anti-Trumpers in the Senate.

If they vote to convict, and it succeeds, that alone vastly reduces Trump's influence in future elections. If a vote to disqualify Trump succeeds, they have even less to fear from Trump venge.

If they vote to convict and it fails though, they will live in fear. 5-10 of them will have to defend their place in 2022, and about the same number in 2024. The small number is BAD, because Trump can focus his primary campaign vengeance on just those states.

17 Republicans to convict, assuming no Dems vote to acquit. Considering the above, those have to come from non-swing states, ie very Republican states. I really can't see them getting up to 10, and if they can't then there will be no timid followers. I think Impeachment 2 is a nothingburger.

I agree with you on Impeachment 2 being a Nothing Burger.

[The Reformed American Republic]

There's a tipping point for timid anti-Trumpers in the Senate.

If they vote to convict, and it succeeds, that alone vastly reduces Trump's influence in future elections. If a vote to disqualify Trump succeeds, they have even less to fear from Trump venge.

If they vote to convict and it fails though, they will live in fear. 5-10 of them will have to defend their place in 2022, and about the same number in 2024. The small number is BAD, because Trump can focus his primary campaign vengeance on just those states.

17 Republicans to convict, assuming no Dems vote to acquit. Considering the above, those have to come from non-swing states, ie very Republican states. I really can't see them getting up to 10, and if they can't then there will be no timid followers. I think Impeachment 2 is a nothingburger.

I agree with you on Impeachment 2 being a Nothing Burger.

Because many Republicans in congress are hacks and cowards.

[Austria-Bohemia-Hungary]

No. Georgia and Arizona only turned blue because of Dominion Voting Machines.

So between America and your god you have chosen the latter...

[A-Series-Of-Tubes]

No. Georgia and Arizona only turned blue because of Dominion Voting Machines.

If so, the election was 279/259.

How does that help you?
Would Trump change his tune from "there was fraud and I won" to "there was fraud and I lost"?

Or maybe something about millions of illegal immigrants in California, who were unfairly prevented from voting for him ...

[Flarbinia]

Or maybe something about millions of illegal immigrants in California, who were unfairly prevented from voting for him ...

Illegal immigrants are not citizens, therefore they cannot legally vote in an Election.

[Borderlands of Rojava]

History nor the constitution does not agree with your assessment. Sorry bud, Trump is shit out of luck this time.

You can't Impeach a private citizen, which is what President Trump will be come the 20th. Also, only ten Republicans have voted in favor of Impeachment. Nancy Pelosi needs seventeen to avoid an acquittal.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/20 ... ch-a-form/

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/1693 ... rial-trump

https://afr.net/podcasts/focal-point/20 ... e-citizen/

https://federalinquirer.com/democrats-c ... ershowitz/

https://www.theepochtimes.com/democrats ... 50853.html

https://www.citizensjournal.us/democrat ... ershowitz/

The epoch times? Really? I bought their paper back in March when my toilet paper ran out

[Bombadil]

There's a tipping point for timid anti-Trumpers in the Senate.

If they vote to convict, and it succeeds, that alone vastly reduces Trump's influence in future elections. If a vote to disqualify Trump succeeds, they have even less to fear from Trump venge.

If they vote to convict and it fails though, they will live in fear. 5-10 of them will have to defend their place in 2022, and about the same number in 2024. The small number is BAD, because Trump can focus his primary campaign vengeance on just those states.

17 Republicans to convict, assuming no Dems vote to acquit. Considering the above, those have to come from non-swing states, ie very Republican states. I really can't see them getting up to 10, and if they can't then there will be no timid followers. I think Impeachment 2 is a nothingburger.

I would take you on that bet, I suspect he will be impeached properly.. specifically in that he did nothing to stop it for 3 hours, 3 hours as all those Senators hid, as that settles in and the footage is clear in their mind, I suspect there will be enough votes.

Whether he's thrown in jail as he should be is another thing.

[Borderlands of Rojava]

Ah yes, Alan "Nothing the President does can be an impeachable offense as long as he believes that he really deserves to be President" Dershowitz.

I guess we'll find out soon enough.

The House has all ready impeached Trump, 17 votes are needed in the Senate for a conviction. It's probably still a long shot, but the math is a bit different because Senators have to win Statewide elections, not just gerrymandered districts chock full of deranged Trumpists, and Trump has all ready successfully turned two states that have been reliably Republican for decades blue.

No. Georgia and Arizona only turned blue because of Dominion Voting Machines.

You say with no evidence. It's funny how the trump movement is all but based in an alternate universe and when asked for evidence they just resort to the usual "LOOK IT UP FOR YOURSELF"

There was no rigging. Trump was just a washed up grade F president who probably will end up in an orange jump suit in two weeks time thank god.

[San Lumen]

Ah yes, Alan "Nothing the President does can be an impeachable offense as long as he believes that he really deserves to be President" Dershowitz.

I guess we'll find out soon enough.

The House has all ready impeached Trump, 17 votes are needed in the Senate for a conviction. It's probably still a long shot, but the math is a bit different because Senators have to win Statewide elections, not just gerrymandered districts chock full of deranged Trumpists, and Trump has all ready successfully turned two states that have been reliably Republican for decades blue.

No. Georgia and Arizona only turned blue because of Dominion Voting Machines. Trump got acquitted by four votes the last time they impeached him and I highly doubt that any Republican who doesn't want to get voted out come the Primaries is not going to vote in favor of conviction.

Even if that was true regarding voting machines and it’s not Biden would have still won the election.

He wasn’t acquitted by four votes. You need a two thirds majority to convict.

[Cannot think of a name]

There's a tipping point for timid anti-Trumpers in the Senate.

If they vote to convict, and it succeeds, that alone vastly reduces Trump's influence in future elections. If a vote to disqualify Trump succeeds, they have even less to fear from Trump venge.

If they vote to convict and it fails though, they will live in fear. 5-10 of them will have to defend their place in 2022, and about the same number in 2024. The small number is BAD, because Trump can focus his primary campaign vengeance on just those states.

17 Republicans to convict, assuming no Dems vote to acquit. Considering the above, those have to come from non-swing states, ie very Republican states. I really can't see them getting up to 10, and if they can't then there will be no timid followers. I think Impeachment 2 is a nothingburger.

I would take you on that bet, I suspect he will be impeached properly.. specifically in that he did nothing to stop it for 3 hours, 3 hours as all those Senators hid, as that settles in and the footage is clear in their mind, I suspect there will be enough votes.

Whether he's thrown in jail as he should be is another thing.

Although, all but 14 Republican representatives decided they were cool with it.

[Picairn]

No, honestly. There was no reason for American involvement in WWII, or World War I for that matter.

What is it with Imperial Japan's apologists masquerading as "isolationists" propping up on NSG lately?

I agree with you on Impeachment 2 being a Nothing Burger.

Because inciting an insurrection is a nothingburger.

[Omniabstracta]

There's a tipping point for timid anti-Trumpers in the Senate.

If they vote to convict, and it succeeds, that alone vastly reduces Trump's influence in future elections. If a vote to disqualify Trump succeeds, they have even less to fear from Trump venge.

If they vote to convict and it fails though, they will live in fear. 5-10 of them will have to defend their place in 2022, and about the same number in 2024. The small number is BAD, because Trump can focus his primary campaign vengeance on just those states.

17 Republicans to convict, assuming no Dems vote to acquit. Considering the above, those have to come from non-swing states, ie very Republican states. I really can't see them getting up to 10, and if they can't then there will be no timid followers. I think Impeachment 2 is a nothingburger.

Well, let’s count. There’s four Republicans who have publicly signaled openness to impeachment: Sasse, Romney, Murkowski, and Toomey. Beyond them, there are sixteen Republican senators not facing re-election until 2026 who voted to overturn objections to the electoral college vote. They have little to fear from the Trump base such a long period of time from now (and it’s likely in their best interests to minimize his future impact on the party, considering they’re already viewed as traitors), especially people like Collins, who won handily because they rely on moderate Democrats and Independents to win, not Trumpers. Those sixteen also, of course, include McConnell, who despises Trump and would like to see him purged from the party, and who has directed his Senate colleagues to recognize that his impact will be toxic if it continues.

I might add, the number of Republican House members who actually voted to impeach was almost double the number we knew about beforehand. Senate races are far less partisan, and therefore far less Trump-dependent, than House races in the primary phase, than House races, which means that the number of Senators who are willing to cross over is probably much higher than was the case in the House. (This lessened partisanship is why so few Republican Senators objected to electoral results in the first place.) Furthermore, Trump will be out of office by the time of the Senate trial, further weakening his grip on the party and further emboldening anti-Trump Senators.

TL;DR, I wouldn’t write off a conviction so quickly in the current climate.

[Borderlands of Rojava]

There's a tipping point for timid anti-Trumpers in the Senate.

If they vote to convict, and it succeeds, that alone vastly reduces Trump's influence in future elections. If a vote to disqualify Trump succeeds, they have even less to fear from Trump venge.

If they vote to convict and it fails though, they will live in fear. 5-10 of them will have to defend their place in 2022, and about the same number in 2024. The small number is BAD, because Trump can focus his primary campaign vengeance on just those states.

17 Republicans to convict, assuming no Dems vote to acquit. Considering the above, those have to come from non-swing states, ie very Republican states. I really can't see them getting up to 10, and if they can't then there will be no timid followers. I think Impeachment 2 is a nothingburger.

I agree with you on Impeachment 2 being a Nothing Burger.

Nothing burger? Your people tried to fucking murder our entire congress.

[A-Series-Of-Tubes]

I agree with you on Impeachment 2 being a Nothing Burger.

Because many Republicans in congress are hacks and cowards.

I did try to employ empathy in my reasoning. Say I'm Thom Tillis in NC, and I have to defend a 2% margin two years from now. I'm only going to join the other anti-Trump Republicans if they've already got 17. I simply can't afford to be on the losing side if that's for impeachment.

Sure, there's a partisan element. What's wrong with that? I can do better for my (R) party by holding the NC Senate seat, than handing it to a Democrat for the sake of signalling my rejection of FORMER President Trump.

Maybe I was a bit dismissive. It's a nothingburger with spicy sauce, and a shit sandwich on the side.

[Galloism]

Because many Republicans in congress are hacks and cowards.

I did try to employ empathy in my reasoning. Say I'm Thom Tillis in NC, and I have to defend a 2% margin two years from now. I'm only going to join the other anti-Trump Republicans if they've already got 17. I simply can't afford to be on the losing side if that's for impeachment.

Sure, there's a partisan element. What's wrong with that? I can do better for my (R) party by holding the NC Senate seat, than handing it to a Democrat for the sake of signalling my rejection of FORMER President Trump.

Maybe I was a bit dismissive. It's a nothingburger with spicy sauce, and a shit sandwich on the side.

I mean, he could just decide to do the right thing....

[Bombadil]

I would take you on that bet, I suspect he will be impeached properly.. specifically in that he did nothing to stop it for 3 hours, 3 hours as all those Senators hid, as that settles in and the footage is clear in their mind, I suspect there will be enough votes.

Whether he's thrown in jail as he should be is another thing.

Although, all but 14 Republican representatives decided they were cool with it.

Well the House is what it is and I suspect if they'd waited a little longer that number might have risen a little. The extent of what happened becomes more and more apparent every day.

It's my own hunch, we'll know when we know.

[Omniabstracta]

Because many Republicans in congress are hacks and cowards.

I did try to employ empathy in my reasoning. Say I'm Thom Tillis in NC, and I have to defend a 2% margin two years from now. I'm only going to join the other anti-Trump Republicans if they've already got 17. I simply can't afford to be on the losing side if that's for impeachment.

Sure, there's a partisan element. What's wrong with that? I can do better for my (R) party by holding the NC Senate seat, than handing it to a Democrat for the sake of signalling my rejection of FORMER President Trump.

Maybe I was a bit dismissive. It's a nothingburger with spicy sauce, and a shit sandwich on the side.

One fundamental miscalculation I think you make is in the effect that pissing off Trump Republicans will have in red states versus swing states. The real threat doesn’t come from the statewide elections, because regardless of the rhetoric, most Trump Republicans would rather have a Republican than a Democrat. The threat is in the primary, and it’s in the ruby read states that the Trumpers are liable to strike and primary a Senate candidate who didn’t conform, as opposed to a swing state where the moderates have a far greater say in the primary process.

(I might add, as evidenced by Georgia, pandering to Trump voters isn’t very likely to win you a seat when he’s not on the ballot anyway.)

[A-Series-Of-Tubes]

Further evidence the second impeachment will fail: Mitch McConnell says he's for it.

Look deeep into his rheumy eyes, and tell me you trust him.

[Bombadil]

I did try to employ empathy in my reasoning. Say I'm Thom Tillis in NC, and I have to defend a 2% margin two years from now. I'm only going to join the other anti-Trump Republicans if they've already got 17. I simply can't afford to be on the losing side if that's for impeachment.

Sure, there's a partisan element. What's wrong with that? I can do better for my (R) party by holding the NC Senate seat, than handing it to a Democrat for the sake of signalling my rejection of FORMER President Trump.

Maybe I was a bit dismissive. It's a nothingburger with spicy sauce, and a shit sandwich on the side.

One fundamental miscalculation I think you make is in the effect that pissing off Trump Republicans will have in red states versus swing states. The real threat doesn’t come from the statewide elections, because regardless of the rhetoric, most Trump Republicans would rather have a Republican than a Democrat. The threat is in the primary, and it’s in the ruby read states that the Trumpers are liable to strike and primary a Senate candidate who didn’t conform, as opposed to a swing state where the moderates have a far greater say in the primary process.

(I might add, as evidenced by Georgia, pandering to Trump voters isn’t very likely to win you a seat when he’s not on the ballot.)

Let's just say Florida is also going to be a bigger shitshow than it's been since, well, forever..

[Bombadil]

Further evidence the second impeachment will fail: Mitch McConnell says he's for it.

Look deeep into his rheumy eyes, and tell me you trust him.

Well he said he will listen to the evidence, and the evidence is that Trump stood by and did nothing to call of his army for 3 hours. You can argue whether he directly incited it or not but he was clearly fine with it given he let it continue when a tweet would have resolved it very quickly.

He was complicit in the attack that put Congressional lives at risk regardless of 5 people dying, one being a police officer hit over the head with a fire extinguisher.

Pretty sure he'll be impeached but I guess we'll see.

[Galloism]

One fundamental miscalculation I think you make is in the effect that pissing off Trump Republicans will have in red states versus swing states. The real threat doesn’t come from the statewide elections, because regardless of the rhetoric, most Trump Republicans would rather have a Republican than a Democrat. The threat is in the primary, and it’s in the ruby read states that the Trumpers are liable to strike and primary a Senate candidate who didn’t conform, as opposed to a swing state where the moderates have a far greater say in the primary process.

(I might add, as evidenced by Georgia, pandering to Trump voters isn’t very likely to win you a seat when he’s not on the ballot.)

Let's just say Florida is also going to be a bigger shitshow than it's been since, well, forever..

Because trump might move there?

[Comerciante]

You may have a point for WW1 but WW2? Well, the Polish, the Chinese, the Koreans, the Jewish, the Homosexual Community, the Russians, the British, the Germans, all the Heads of State that voted for it might disagree with you.

Attempting to make a moral case for American intervention when the American allies in that conflict were Stalin, who killed more than the Nazis ever did through Democide, or the British Empire for that matter, is downright silly.

Because the Nazis, the Italians, and Imperial Japan were totally going to be better neighbors to their new colonies and totally respected people's choices.

[Bombadil]

Let's just say Florida is also going to be a bigger shitshow than it's been since, well, forever..

Because trump might move there?

Yes, and it's the state identified by Ivanka and Jared for a possible run down the line.. it will be a Trump hold out.

[Bombadil]

Because a direct attack by one nation and a declaration of war from another is no reason to get involved, obviously

Just ignore Cash and Carry, Lend Lease and FDR sending the American Navy out to directly provoke the Japanese and Germans...

This very edgy but very boring and rather irrelevant to this thread.

[Picairn]

Just ignore Cash and Carry, Lend Lease and FDR sending the American Navy out to directly provoke the Japanese and Germans...

Because a neutral country can't sell to anyone, apparently.

Sending the Navy out to where? Pearl Harbor? Shipping lanes to Britain? Which were fully within US' right?