The Rise of China

[Bienenhalde]

The warlords? Hello?

After the fall of the Imperial System in China, China essentially was balkanized into many, many smaller states. Did this create prosperity for China like you predicted? No, it just led to rampant warlordism and corruption as everyone wanted to unify China and did everything they could (including bribe crime syndicates or even join them like Sun Yat-Sen did) to actually attain it. The result was that corruption was sky high, particularly in the provinces.

This issue wasn't solved until the RoC was exiled to Taiwan and the PRC essentially obliterated the warlords and fired them from living. After that, corruption shifted to the reasons that it happens today in China (i.e because of the rich and powerful influencing government like they always have in capitalist societies). Criminal syndicates weren't being paid to help unite China anymore, and the warlords were gone, so that Chinese unification type of corruption just collapsed.

The essence of the problem you mentioned is that China was not actually abolished. Instead a lot of warlords laid claim to China.

The ROC in Taiwan also claims China as a whole, but life in Taiwan is not so bad, is it?

[Nekostan-e Gharbi]

The essence of the problem you mentioned is that China was not actually abolished. Instead a lot of warlords laid claim to China.

The ROC in Taiwan also claims China as a whole, but life in Taiwan is not so bad, is it?

Nominally. Taiwan is good because it is not China.

[Bienenhalde]

Stop using the nonexistent concept of "sinostatism" please. Wanting to unify the Chinese people (or really any ethnic group) is called nationalism. It's not anything else.

Good luck enforcing a divided China especially in the 21st century, where nationalism makes that sort of thing an impossibility.

It’s not. Forcing ethnic Chinese people (e.g. Hong Kongers, Taiwanese) who don’t want to be in China to be in China is not nationalism. A good analogy is UK attempting to force Anglos in North America to obey its king. That’s pure, undiluted statism that in fact contradicts the concept of self-rule while nationalism (e.g. Serbs in Vukovar want to be in Serbia instead of Croatia) includes self-rule for members of an ethnic group.

Well, under current circumstances, it seems as though the US is on the brink of collapse, but theoretically, if the US could work as a multi-ethnic state, why couldn't China be successful as a multi-ethnic state?

[Nekostan-e Gharbi]

It’s not. Forcing ethnic Chinese people (e.g. Hong Kongers, Taiwanese) who don’t want to be in China to be in China is not nationalism. A good analogy is UK attempting to force Anglos in North America to obey its king. That’s pure, undiluted statism that in fact contradicts the concept of self-rule while nationalism (e.g. Serbs in Vukovar want to be in Serbia instead of Croatia) includes self-rule for members of an ethnic group.

Well, under current circumstances, it seems as though the US is on the brink of collapse, but theoretically, if the US could work as a multi-ethnic state, why couldn't China be successful as a multi-ethnic state?

The US is indeed a multi-ethnic state but not a well functioning one. Note that “ethnicity” is ultimately defined by relative absence of intermarriage hence non-Jewish white groups are not really separate ethnic groups in US while being separate ethnic groups in Europe. Whether people such as Hispanics and Japanese are really ethnic groups is also doubtful given the high intermarriage rate. The main cause of social instability in US is the persistence of multiple ethnic groups, that is, whites and blacks. Removing that layer of conflict America is pretty normal.

[Bienenhalde]

Well, under current circumstances, it seems as though the US is on the brink of collapse, but theoretically, if the US could work as a multi-ethnic state, why couldn't China be successful as a multi-ethnic state?

The US is indeed a multi-ethnic state but not a well functioning one. Note that “ethnicity” is ultimately defined by relative absence of intermarriage hence non-Jewish white groups are not really separate ethnic groups in US while being separate ethnic groups in Europe. Whether people such as Hispanics and Japanese are really ethnic groups is also doubtful given the high intermarriage rate. The main cause of social instability in US is the persistence of multiple ethnic groups, that is, whites and blacks. Removing that layer of conflict America is pretty normal.

So would you consider Han subgroups like Hakka, Cantonese, Hokkien, and Wu people to be seperate ethnic groups?

[Nekostan-e Gharbi]

The US is indeed a multi-ethnic state but not a well functioning one. Note that “ethnicity” is ultimately defined by relative absence of intermarriage hence non-Jewish white groups are not really separate ethnic groups in US while being separate ethnic groups in Europe. Whether people such as Hispanics and Japanese are really ethnic groups is also doubtful given the high intermarriage rate. The main cause of social instability in US is the persistence of multiple ethnic groups, that is, whites and blacks. Removing that layer of conflict America is pretty normal.

So would you consider Han subgroups like Hakka, Cantonese, Hokkien, and Wu people to be seperate ethnic groups?

Not in China and even less so in the newer diaspora. This does not contradict the claim that China needs to be abolished though since monoethnostatism is weird. Germany existing does not make Austria illegitimate. Moreover it is even more absurd to claim that Austrians who don’t support unification with Germany are by definition traitors of Germany. That’s Sinostatist reasoning.

[Infected Mushroom]

The rise of China is a good thing for Canada, given that while China will influence us as it continues to rise, particularly if the Canadian government aligns itself with it, the degree of Chinese influence over Canada will never reach the point of American influence over Canada by the simple facet of geography.

It would be better for the EU to get their shit together, but alas, you have to make do with what you have right now, and like it or not, China is the only viable alternative to America out there.

Are you saying Canadians should diversify their economic dependance on the USA?

I agree they should

[Freiheit Reich]

Don't believe him.Hate Henan people is just a joke on the Internet.Just like idiotic news in Florida.No one hate.There is only one Chinese we hate are after being slaves to foreigners for a long time, who feel that Chinese people are inferior to others everywhere, foreigners are superior, and also blame other people for disobeying foreign masters.

Do you want me to start translating some gems into English for everyone to “enjoy”? You know your claims are wrong.

https://business.sohu.com/76/78/article201327876.shtml

There is hiring discrimination against people simply for being from Henan. Folks from Henan aren’t even an ethnic minority or something..

In fairness, Henan has a bad reputation for being the home of troublemakers and even many other Chinese have a bad impression of them. It might compare to the 'Florida man' from the USA.

Type in China smack Henan and you can find tons of gems from that province:

https://www.chinasmack.com/?s=henan

[Glorious Hong Kong]

Do you want me to start translating some gems into English for everyone to “enjoy”? You know your claims are wrong.

https://business.sohu.com/76/78/article201327876.shtml

There is hiring discrimination against people simply for being from Henan. Folks from Henan aren’t even an ethnic minority or something..

In fairness, Henan has a bad reputation for being the home of troublemakers and even many other Chinese have a bad impression of them. It might compare to the 'Florida man' from the USA.

Type in China smack Henan and you can find tons of gems from that province:

https://www.chinasmack.com/?s=henan

IIRC, Chinese civilization originated in Henan province as the Huaxia clans prior to being unified and becoming "Han". I doubt my ancestors came from there though. We southerners who live in the hills and valleys are arguably less "Chinese" than the people up north despite not having a funny northern Plains accent which I'm pretty sure even a non-native speaker can easily detect from a mile away despite not knowing the language. We were occupied and conquered by the Qin without any say in the matter. The Chinese occupation continues to this day and the Communist regime is trying to wipe out our languages and force us to speak Mandarin in their own funny Beijing accent.

Alternatively, we southerners are arguably more Chinese and more "pure-blooded" than those Mandarin-speaking northerners. Mongol haplotypes are considerably more prevalent in the north of China and large swathes of central Asia, a legacy of Genghis Khan's campaign of raping, pillaging, looting, and conquest. Maybe it is the case that Chinese civilization is central in origin only for the power base to shift northward from Nanking and Chang'an to Beijing and for "Standard" Chinese pronunciation to be bastardized by the powers that be. Perhaps Nekostan can confirm this?

[Atheris]

Do you want me to start translating some gems into English for everyone to “enjoy”? You know your claims are wrong.

https://business.sohu.com/76/78/article201327876.shtml

There is hiring discrimination against people simply for being from Henan. Folks from Henan aren’t even an ethnic minority or something..

In fairness, Henan has a bad reputation for being the home of troublemakers and even many other Chinese have a bad impression of them. It might compare to the 'Florida man' from the USA.

Type in China smack Henan and you can find tons of gems from that province:

https://www.chinasmack.com/?s=henan

I think my personal favorite is "Henan Brawl Videotaped By Possible Policemen"

How can someone be possibly a policeman?

[Resilient Acceleration]

Has anybody talked about the vulnerabilities of China? At least, I recently found these:

• It's growth model for the past few decades isn't really sustainable. The Chinese created a lot of growth by basically confiscating most of the savings for private citizens and force-feed them into projects that achieve national goals, whether it's full employment, or a great infrastructure system, or mega-housing (around 40% of which are unoccupied). Chinese corporate debt is now at around 300% GDP. This model of output over profitability is pretty similar to Enron and a burst might prove too big to contain.
• Aging population is generally bad, but it'll be especially catastrophic in China's case due to the past One-Child Policy. A sudden drop in the workforce population along with a sudden increase in the retired population means shrinking domestic markets and ballooning spending.
• 90% of their navy can't sail more than 1000 miles from a home port. Chinese navy is primarily designed around invading Taiwan, so their ability to project power or police trade lines is far less that of the US. Further US isolationism could be disastrous.
• Speaking of supply lines vulnerability, China imports 80% of their energy, most of which travel through chokepoints out of China's reach. Any disruption there would be catastrophic.
• Speaking of supply lines vulnerability, China's farmland in general is pretty terrible, forcing them to use five times the global average of fertilizers and pesticides, most of which are also imported.
• Made in China 2025, China's program to transition away from low-level manufacturing into high-tech industries, is dependent on tech transfers ("stealing") from Western nations, but recent decoupling trend and anti-China sentiment really complicate things.
• Speaking of low-level manufacturing, automation. China's main advantage for the last few decades has been their cheap, exploitable labor force, but this becomes completely irrelevant if it's cheaper to set up automated industries in North America with more secure supply lines and more proximity to the end consumer.

Really, I've lately been a bit skeptical of China and while they definitely can do something about it, all of these neatly stacked dominoes are just too large to ignore.

[Repubblica Fascista Sociale Italiana]

Has anybody talked about the vulnerabilities of China? At least, I recently found these:

• It's growth model for the past few decades isn't really sustainable. The Chinese created a lot of growth by basically confiscating most of the savings for private citizens and force-feed them into projects that achieve national goals, whether it's full employment, or a great infrastructure system, or mega-housing (around 40% of which are unoccupied). Chinese corporate debt is now at around 300% GDP. This model of output over profitability is pretty similar to Enron and a burst might prove too big to contain.
• Aging population is generally bad, but it'll be especially catastrophic in China's case due to the past One-Child Policy. A sudden drop in the workforce population along with a sudden increase in the retired population means shrinking domestic markets and ballooning spending.
• 90% of their navy can't sail more than 1000 miles from a home port. Chinese navy is primarily designed around invading Taiwan, so their ability to project power or police trade lines is far less that of the US. Further US isolationism could be disastrous.
• Speaking of supply lines vulnerability, China imports 80% of their energy, most of which travel through chokepoints out of China's reach. Any disruption there would be catastrophic.
• Speaking of supply lines vulnerability, China's farmland in general is pretty terrible, forcing them to use five times the global average of fertilizers and pesticides, most of which are also imported.
• Made in China 2025, China's program to transition away from low-level manufacturing into high-tech industries, is dependent on tech transfers ("stealing") technology from Western nations, but recent decoupling trend and anti-China sentiment really complicate things.
• Speaking of low-level manufacturing, automation. China's main advantage for the last few decades has been their cheap, exploitable labor force, but this becomes completely irrelevant if it's cheaper to set up automated industries in North America with more secure supply lines and more proximity to the end consumer.

Really, I've lately been a bit skeptical of China and while they definitely can do something about it, all of these neatly stacked dominoes are just too large to ignore.

Of all of these, one is extremely important to take into account

Aging population is generally bad, but it'll be especially catastrophic in China's case due to the past One-Child Policy. A sudden drop in the workforce population along with a sudden increase in the retired population means shrinking domestic markets and ballooning spending.

The problems China will face due to the long term effects of one-child are not only the mentioned, but also the massive sex disparity due to Chinese culture traditionally prioritizing boys and as such, abortions and abandonment were common occurrences in the case of girls. This is expected to cripple China in the long run as the younger generation becomes more prominent in the economy and the older generation retires

[Sungoldy-China]

Governments all over the world are patchwork garbage organizations，

Rather than saying that a country is rising, it is better to say that a country collapses more slowly than other countries.

The history of a country is the accumulation of malpractices and distortions.

[Adamede]

Governments all over the world are patchwork garbage organizations，

Rather than saying that a country is rising, it is better to say that a country collapses more slowly than other countries.

The history of a country is the accumulation of malpractices and distortions.

Be careful so that you don’t cut yourself on that edge.

[Yuzu China]

IIRC, Chinese civilization originated in Henan province as the Huaxia clans prior to being unified and becoming "Han". I doubt my ancestors came from there though. We southerners who live in the hills and valleys are arguably less "Chinese" than the people up north despite not having a funny northern Plains accent which I'm pretty sure even a non-native speaker can easily detect from a mile away despite not knowing the language. We were occupied and conquered by the Qin without any say in the matter. The Chinese occupation continues to this day and the Communist regime is trying to wipe out our languages and force us to speak Mandarin in their own funny Beijing accent.

Alternatively, we southerners are arguably more Chinese and more "pure-blooded" than those Mandarin-speaking northerners. Mongol haplotypes are considerably more prevalent in the north of China and large swathes of central Asia, a legacy of Genghis Khan's campaign of raping, pillaging, looting, and conquest. Maybe it is the case that Chinese civilization is central in origin only for the power base to shift northward from Nanking and Chang'an to Beijing and for "Standard" Chinese pronunciation to be bastardized by the powers that be. Perhaps Nekostan can confirm this?

Please stop this absurd 1940s style racial science like Purebloods and reread your textbooks--this isn't Harry Potter, no Chinese speaks like that either. Don't get started on the occupation nonsense.

If you listened in class, you'd know that government officials regardless of hometown already had a common spoken standard (切韻, etc). You are 14 centuries late to the party.

Don't say 「we」 if you don't even know your history much less your language.

[Nejii]

Governments all over the world are patchwork garbage organizations，

Rather than saying that a country is rising, it is better to say that a country collapses more slowly than other countries.

The history of a country is the accumulation of malpractices and distortions.

I can’t decipher if that’s groveling nihilism or what I call “pink haired leftism.”

[Northern Socialist Council Republics]

-snip-

I will express precisely the opposite opinion. Things are improving overall, and it’s merely that things are improving more rapidly in some countries than in others. Economically, all but a tiny minority of countries reported a higher standard of living in 2019 than in 1969, the social atmosphere has grown far more tolerant in this half-century with religious morality and ethnonationalism both starting to fall apart in this period, and even though Trump et al. are concerning the world today is far more democratic and free compared to 50 years ago.

Basically the only front on which the world has slid backwards over the past few decades is environmentalism.

---

I hold no great pessimism for a Sinocentric 21st Century, but I hold no great optimism either. I think the OP is quite mistaken in believing that Beijing will be a more benevolent overlord than Washington.

Politicians behave in the interest of those to whom they are accountable, no more, no less. Future world leaders will not suddenly be more accountable to the populations of smaller countries in their sphere of influence just because said leaders happen to be more Chinese than the current ones.

[Infected Mushroom]

This just in:

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/ ... 210118.htm

The mainland's economy picked up speed in the fourth quarter, with growth beating expectations as it ended a rough coronavirus-stricken 2020 in remarkably good shape and remained poised to expand further this year even as the global pandemic raged unabated.

The world's second-largest economy has surprised many with the speed of its recovery from last year's coronavirus jolt, especially as policymakers have also had to navigate tense US-China relations on trade and other fronts.

Beijing's strict virus curbs apparently enabled it to largely contain the Covid-19 outbreak much quicker than most countries, while government-led policy stimulus and local manufacturers stepping up production to supply goods to many countries crippled by the pandemic have also helped fire up momentum.

Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 6.5 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday, quicker than the 6.1 percent forecast by economists in a Reuters poll, and followed an upwardly revised 4.9 percent growth in the third quarter.

GDP grew 2.3 percent in 2020, the data showed, making China the only major economy in the world to avoid a contraction last year as many nations struggled to contain the Covid-19 pandemic.

"The higher-than-expected GDP number indicates that growth has stepped into the expansionary zone, although some sectors remain in recovery," Xing Zhaopeng, economist at ANZ in Shanghai.

"Policy exiting will pose counter-cyclical pressures on 2021 growth."

Backed by strict virus containment measures and policy stimulus, the economy has recovered steadily from a steep 6.8 percent slump in the first three months of 2020, when the outbreak of Covid-19 in Wuhan turned into a full-blown epidemic.

Asia's economic powerhouse has been fuelled by a surprisingly resilient export sector, but China's consumption - a key driver of growth - has lagged expectations amid fears of a resurgence of Covid-19 cases.

Data last week showed Chinese exports grew by more than expected in December, as coronavirus disruptions around the world fuelled demand for Chinese goods even as a stronger yuan made exports more expensive for overseas buyers.

Yet, underscoring the massive Covid-19 impact worldwide, China's 2020 GDP growth was the weakest pace since 1976, the final year of the decade-long Cultural Revolution that had wrecked the economy. (Reuters)

[Nekostan-e Gharbi]

Let the China thread be about China.

[Sicilian Imperial-Capitalist Empire]

This just in:

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/ ... 210118.htm

The mainland's economy picked up speed in the fourth quarter, with growth beating expectations as it ended a rough coronavirus-stricken 2020 in remarkably good shape and remained poised to expand further this year even as the global pandemic raged unabated.

The world's second-largest economy has surprised many with the speed of its recovery from last year's coronavirus jolt, especially as policymakers have also had to navigate tense US-China relations on trade and other fronts.

Beijing's strict virus curbs apparently enabled it to largely contain the Covid-19 outbreak much quicker than most countries, while government-led policy stimulus and local manufacturers stepping up production to supply goods to many countries crippled by the pandemic have also helped fire up momentum.

Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 6.5 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday, quicker than the 6.1 percent forecast by economists in a Reuters poll, and followed an upwardly revised 4.9 percent growth in the third quarter.

GDP grew 2.3 percent in 2020, the data showed, making China the only major economy in the world to avoid a contraction last year as many nations struggled to contain the Covid-19 pandemic.

"The higher-than-expected GDP number indicates that growth has stepped into the expansionary zone, although some sectors remain in recovery," Xing Zhaopeng, economist at ANZ in Shanghai.

"Policy exiting will pose counter-cyclical pressures on 2021 growth."

Backed by strict virus containment measures and policy stimulus, the economy has recovered steadily from a steep 6.8 percent slump in the first three months of 2020, when the outbreak of Covid-19 in Wuhan turned into a full-blown epidemic.

Asia's economic powerhouse has been fuelled by a surprisingly resilient export sector, but China's consumption - a key driver of growth - has lagged expectations amid fears of a resurgence of Covid-19 cases.

Data last week showed Chinese exports grew by more than expected in December, as coronavirus disruptions around the world fuelled demand for Chinese goods even as a stronger yuan made exports more expensive for overseas buyers.

Yet, underscoring the massive Covid-19 impact worldwide, China's 2020 GDP growth was the weakest pace since 1976, the final year of the decade-long Cultural Revolution that had wrecked the economy. (Reuters)

China's economic growth has declined year by year, and although they'll bounce back from COVID, they aren't going to recover their GDP growth. And that's bad news for China, because they need to start reaping financial rewards from their investments into Africa or their entire economic plan will fall apart.

[Infected Mushroom]

This just in:

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/ ... 210118.htm

China's economic growth has declined year by year, and although they'll bounce back from COVID, they aren't going to recover their GDP growth. And that's bad news for China, because they need to start reaping financial rewards from their investments into Africa or their entire economic plan will fall apart.

But I thought they would overtake America by 2028? (5 years earlier than previously anticipated)

[Sicilian Imperial-Capitalist Empire]

China's economic growth has declined year by year, and although they'll bounce back from COVID, they aren't going to recover their GDP growth. And that's bad news for China, because they need to start reaping financial rewards from their investments into Africa or their entire economic plan will fall apart.

But I thought they would overtake America by 2028? (5 years earlier than previously anticipated)

...I thought they already did?

GDP is a stupid metric.

[Infected Mushroom]

But I thought they would overtake America by 2028? (5 years earlier than previously anticipated)

...I thought they already did?

GDP is a stupid metric.

Oh really? Wow. So I‘ve been living in the world’s largest economy this whole time? I just didn’t know? I’m shocked.

[Nekostan-e Gharbi]

This just in:

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/ ... 210118.htm

China's economic growth has declined year by year, and although they'll bounce back from COVID, they aren't going to recover their GDP growth. And that's bad news for China, because they need to start reaping financial rewards from their investments into Africa or their entire economic plan will fall apart.

That’s obviously not going to happen.

[Yuzu China]

Governments all over the world are patchwork garbage organizations，

Rather than saying that a country is rising, it is better to say that a country collapses more slowly than other countries.

The history of a country is the accumulation of malpractices and distortions.

I can’t decipher if that’s groveling nihilism or what I call “pink haired leftism.”

It's simply the acceptance of reality as opposed to inhaling someone else's legalized marijuana (*cough* Oregon, Canada/other winners who love writing the history books). Don't get started on Denver's "shrooms."