PR for Beginners(A Dutch Election Thread)

[Shrillland]

Ah, a perennial favourite at NSG, the Dutch Tweede Kamer election is coming most likely on Wednesday, March 17, and the government may be stretching voting out for three days to keep Covid at bay. It's been an eventful four years for the Netherlands as it has for everyone else. As the current coalition government led by VVD leader Mark Rutte got settled in, Thierry Baudet's Forum for Democracy started siphoning voters towards his new far-right party with a similar appeal to other right populists in the last few years. In 2019, after the Eerste Kamer and provincial elections left FvD the largest party in that chamber and in three provinces(helped no doubt by a surge of anti-Islamic feeling in the wake of a shooting in Utrecht), it looked for a while like FvD could win the election.

VVD itself, meanwhile, seemed to be struggling to stay above water until a series of controversies in early 2020 led to FvD's collapse from grace. Still, VVD was tied with the more famous right populists under Geert Wilders PVV and the old social democratic PvdA(Labour Party). And then came the plague. Like in other parts of the world, Rutte's government's response ended up saving the bacon of all four parties involved including CDA, D66, and CU, but they aren't expected to cross the threshold together in the latest polls. Meanwhile, Wilders now has strengthened the Party for Freedom into a good second place. On top of that, a whole new VVD will appear as 17 of the current 32 MPs are retiring. Rutte's still expected to be Lijsttrekker(party leader) when the final VVD list is published in January, and he's poised to lead a fourth government according to the polls. But with who? Let's find out, shall we?

Now for the basics in what's perhaps the most fun elections to watch outside of the Westminster countries. The Tweede Kamer has 150 members elected in a single national constituency by D'Hondt open list PR with(and this is the fun part) no threshold. If you can get 0.66% nationwide, you get a seat. This means there are a LOT of parties represented.

Now to meet the parties themselves, too many to put into the poll:

People's Party for Freedom and Democracy(VVD) led by Current PM Mark Rutte: Centre-right, Conservative Liberal, Economic Liberal

Party for Freedom(PVV) led by Geert Wilders: Far Right, Eurosceptic, Right Populist, Dutch Nationalist, Anti-immigrant, Welfare Nationalist, Anti-Islamic

Christian Democratic Appeal(CDA) led by Wopke Hoekstra: Centre-right, Christian Democratic, Social Conservative

Democrats 66(D66) led by Sigrid Kaag: Centre, Eurofederalist, Progressive, Social Liberal

GroenLinks(GL) led by Jesse Klaver: Left Wing, Pro-Europe, Green Policy, Social Democracy

Socialist Party(SP) led by Lillian Marijnissen: Left Wing, Dutch Republican, Democratic Socialist, Soft Eurosceptic, Left Populist

Labour Party(PvdA) led by Lilianne Ploumen: Centre-left, Social Democratic, Feminist

Christian Union(CU) led by Gert-Jan Segers: Fiscally Centre to Centre-left, Ethically Centre-right, Calvinist, Christian Democratic, Soft Eurosceptic, Social Conservative

Party for the Animals(PvdD) led by Esther Ouwehand: Left Wing, Animal Rights, Environmentalist, Soft Eurosceptic

Forum for Democracy(FvD) no leader though former leader Thierry Baudet remains as Lijsttrekker: Far Right, Direct Democratic, E-Democracy, National Conservative, Dutch Nationalist, Right Populist

Reformed Political Party(SGP) led by Kees van der Staaij: Right Wing, Dutch Reformist Theocratic(even their website's closed on Sunday), Social Conservative, Soft Eurosceptic

50PLUS(50+) led by Liane den Haan: Centre, Pensioners Interests, Populist, Soft Eurosceptic

Denk led by Farid Azarkan: Centre-left to Left, Turkish Minority Interests(some consider the party an adjunct of Turkey's AKP), Islamic Community Interests, Identity Politics, Social Democratic, Social Conservative, Anti-Zionist

Right Answer '21(JA21) led by Joort Eerdmans: Right Wing, Soft Eurosceptic, Anti-Immigrant, Conservative Liberal

Volt Nederland led by Laurens Dassen: Centre to Centre-left, Eurofederalist, Progressive, Social Liberal

So, NSG, what's your pick? What coalition do you think will lead?

For me, considering this is a country where you truly can vote your conscience, my preference is for GroenLinks. As for my coalition pick, I think given the poll numbers, it will be VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA-CU. The current coalition is six shy of a majority, and after the failed GroenLinks negotiations last time around, Rutte needs to throw the left a bone, so I think he'll go safe with the PvdA.

EDIT 1/14/2021: Labour leader Lodewijk Asscher has resigned as the party slumps in the polls and he continues to be blamed for a major scandal concerning childcare allowance fraud that turned out not to be happening. PvdA will choose a new lijstrekker in the coming days, most likely former Foreign Trade Minister Lilianne Ploumen.

EDIT: 1/18: Ploumen has been all but acclaimed by PvdA, the OP is updated accordingly.

EDIT 3/10: I've changed my prediction. Although I still think my original coalition call is likely, I also think that VVD-D66-PvdA-CU-PvdD is also possible at this point.

[Vestjylland]

That is a lot of parties.

[Forumland]

I knew it was coming but I didn't think you would make the thread 4 months out...

That is a lot of parties.

Yeah, but the niches are well defined. The only two parties with large amounts of overlap are PVV and FvD, and I guess that depends on whether you like a more conventional right-wing populist party or one led by the Dutch equivalent of Daniel Hannan.

[Shrillland]

I knew it was coming but I didn't think you would make the thread 4 months out...

That is a lot of parties.

Yeah, but the niches are well defined. The only two parties with large amounts of overlap are PVV and FvD, and I guess that depends on whether you like a more conventional right-wing populist party or one led by the Dutch equivalent of Daniel Hannan.

Normally, I don't go so far ahead of time, but Dutch votes always tend to be popular here and the last one was about three months out too.

[The Alma Mater]

That is a lot of parties.

It's not even all - many more run but never get a seat. Not even when they call themselves the Pirate Party and have a latex fetish model as their "lijstttrekker".

Though to be fair, the pirate party lost points for me when they failed to register in the Dutch Carribean.

[Baltenstein]

From a strictly ideological point of view, D66 would be the party that is the closest to my liking.

As a rule of thumb though, the - relative - personal integrity and competence of a candidate are a a more decisive factor for me than his or her political/ideological camp. So I guess, Rutte? He seems to be doing an okay job for his country, all things considered. I don't follow the news on the Netherlands very often though.

[The Alma Mater]

As a rule of thumb though, the - relative - personal integrity and competence of a candidate are a a more decisive factor for me than his or her political/ideological camp.

Why ? Genuine question.
Many people in the Netherlands vote party first, person second - where "person" often even is 'the first woman on the list or "the one whose name I liked". When asked, many will even not be able to name all the lijsttrekkers mentioned in the OP.

All online tools designed to help people to vote (e.g. by asking 80 or so questions about different topics and then showing how close the answers match the party programmes) also use the party and not the person as a basis.

Exceptions are of course the populist PVV and LPF where most people vote for the person without knowing the party programme. And when a representative of a party does exceptionally bad (like e.g. the Groen Links mayor of Amsterdam, Halsema) that might be reflected in the election.

[Nakena]

I have no idea about any of those parties. Except Wilders and the Pomade Mafia.

What were their stances on Corona?

[The Alma Mater]

I have no idea about any of those parties. Except Wilders and the Pomade Mafia.

What were their stances on Corona?

LPF thinks it is all nonsense, PVV tends to agree.
All other parties are in favour of measures; though quite a few object to the way laws and fines were implemented, how Ruttes pressconferences cause more confusion than clarity and how the cabinet seems to lack long-term vision.

[Hakinda Herseyi Duymak istiyorum]

Can you add DENK to the survey please. I wonder if you can not especially add, I do not understand.

DENK+Labour Party+Democrats 66

[Avaerilon]

As a shamelessly pro-EU individual, and a liberal, I support D66- they're not perfect, but seldom is a party or candidate perfect. I'm a resident of NL, and pretty clued-up, so I'm not going in blind.

[Baltenstein]

As a rule of thumb though, the - relative - personal integrity and competence of a candidate are a a more decisive factor for me than his or her political/ideological camp.

Why ? Genuine question.
Many people in the Netherlands vote party first, person second - where "person" often even is 'the first woman on the list or "the one whose name I liked". When asked, many will even not be able to name all the lijsttrekkers mentioned in the OP.

All online tools designed to help people to vote (e.g. by asking 80 or so questions about different topics and then showing how close the answers match the party programmes) also use the party and not the person as a basis.

Exceptions are of course the populist PVV and LPF where most people vote for the person without knowing the party programme. And when a representative of a party does exceptionally bad (like e.g. the Groen Links mayor of Amsterdam, Halsema) that might be reflected in the election.

Because by and large, most parties are wretched hives of scum of villainy, made up of an increasingly society-detached caste of authoritarian zealots (the party youths) and self-serving apparatchiks (the same people, once older and in public office), with the ideological differences being mostly the product of PR campaigns. It's honestly no wonder that political apathy has been steadily rising and party membership falling in Western parliamentary democracies for quite some time now.
Even though I mostly identify as a liberal centrist, I'd much rather vote for a decent and/or competent (ideally both) leftist or conservative rather than a centrist scoundrel.

[Crylante]

bring back PPR 2k21

[Shrillland]

Can you add DENK to the survey please. I wonder if you can not especially add, I do not understand.

DENK+Labour Party+Democrats 66

I have DENK in as other because I could only fit so many onto the poll, so I put up the top nine in the polls and anyone who wanted one of the others could vote other and say which one they wanted.

[No State Here]

Didn’t know so many people care about swamp germans

[Hakinda Herseyi Duymak istiyorum]

Can you add DENK to the survey please. I wonder if you can not especially add, I do not understand.

DENK+Labour Party+Democrats 66

I have DENK in as other because I could only fit so many onto the poll, so I put up the top nine in the polls and anyone who wanted one of the others could vote other and say which one they wanted.

you are right How is the DENK party's attitude towards Marijuana and brothels ? Is it really a social democratic party that defends the rights of Turks ?

[Anatoliyanskiy]

Well, I do think that the VVD will most likely remain in power somehow and I do agree with the OP that the Labour Party will probably be included in a coalition, seeing as they are the least left-wing of the left parties. They did have an astonishing loss of seats last time and they aren't really looking to gain that much. Anyhow my personal support is torn between the GreenLeft and Socialist Party but GreenLeft edges them out so id probably vote for them.

[Shrillland]

I have DENK in as other because I could only fit so many onto the poll, so I put up the top nine in the polls and anyone who wanted one of the others could vote other and say which one they wanted.

you are right How is the DENK party's attitude towards Marijuana and brothels ? Is it really a social democratic party that defends the rights of Turks ?

On social and moral issues, they're actually quite conservative and look at it from an Islamic perspective, so marijuana and brothels are right out.

[Anatoliyanskiy]

I have DENK in as other because I could only fit so many onto the poll, so I put up the top nine in the polls and anyone who wanted one of the others could vote other and say which one they wanted.

you are right How is the DENK party's attitude towards Marijuana and brothels ? Is it really a social democratic party that defends the rights of Turks ?

to be fair, they are actually very socially conservative and can be seen as being socially right-wing. They do defend Turkish, Moroccan and general arabic minority rights, and fiscally they are social democratic. So like 2 out of 3 things you agree with. They tend to get 2-3 seats.

[Shrillland]

you are right How is the DENK party's attitude towards Marijuana and brothels ? Is it really a social democratic party that defends the rights of Turks ?

to be fair, they are actually very socially conservative and can be seen as being socially right-wing. They do defend Turkish, Moroccan and general arabic minority rights, and fiscally they are social democratic. So like 2 out of 3 things you agree with. They tend to get 2-3 seats.

And they do have a somewhat unhealthy relationship with the AKP in Turkey to the point where they're more or less a puppet.

[The Huskar Social Union]

I guess GL would be the party for me if i were a humble dutchman.

[Anatoliyanskiy]

to be fair, they are actually very socially conservative and can be seen as being socially right-wing. They do defend Turkish, Moroccan and general arabic minority rights, and fiscally they are social democratic. So like 2 out of 3 things you agree with. They tend to get 2-3 seats.

And they do have a somewhat unhealthy relationship with the AKP in Turkey to the point where they're more or less a puppet.

yeah they also have ties with the Grey Wolves so not too favourable. However equally unfavourable is Geert Wilders who's kinda gotten a cult of personality similar to Trumps, he's basically the Dutch Trump if you will. And the FVD luckily had a huge drop in support so phew, no more climate change denialists!

[The Alma Mater]

I have DENK in as other because I could only fit so many onto the poll, so I put up the top nine in the polls and anyone who wanted one of the others could vote other and say which one they wanted.

you are right How is the DENK party's attitude towards Marijuana and brothels ? Is it really a social democratic party that defends the rights of Turks ?

As long as you believe Erdogan is the true Prophet - yes.
If you believe Mohammed is or that Ataturk was wise or are a Gulenist... run.

[Hakinda Herseyi Duymak istiyorum]

I don't understand. Does it support marijuana and prostitution ? What attitude does DENK party have towards LGBT ?

[Shrillland]

I don't understand. Does it support marijuana and prostitution ? What attitude does DENK party have towards LGBT ?

As I said, they don't support marijuana or prostitution. They're also more aligned with parties like CU and SGP when it comes to LGBT folks, i.e., they're not big fans.