Devionsa wrote:Nobel Hobos 2 wrote:Costs: $7 billion is doable, in government money. If private enterprise doesn't like it, they can compete.
Risks: Nuclear fission is very safe, averaged over plants and years of operation ... even including Chernobyl and Fukushima. Fission power is a victim of its own success: nobody pays attention to the hundreds of plants providing them power with zero pollution, until once a decade there's a major accident and it's big news for a year ... even if hardly anyone dies. Meanwhile coal plants kill people gradually and less obviously, at a far greater rate. The biggest disaster (Chernobyl) being bad design and a stupid decision by the manager, is also overlooked: neither would apply at a US or German plant. Even at a Chinese plant I suspect.
Delay: Ten years isn't terrible. Solar isn't going to be that much better in ten years. But the problem is cumulative with 1:Costs. A fleet of reactors sufficient to replace all coal and gas plants, also account for future demand from electric cars and more aircon, is maybe fifty? Half a trillion is admittedly serious money. Furthermore it's cheapest and best to build reactors in tranches: construction problems in the first tranche can be fixed in the second, also specialists can keep working the same stage in successive tranches.
I think the biggest obstacle is government willpower, and perhaps the technology to build plants away from cities without too much power loss in transmission.
I am gonna be honest with you, the way you dismissed the issues I raised is a bit patronising. Anyways, onto your rebuttals:
• $7-10 billion for ONE plant of 1000 MW capacity. The energy consumption for the US alone was more than 1.22 million Megawatts. By some basic calculations that means that we would need about $8.6 trillion to 12.2 trillion dollars to fully transition to nuclear. Even just using nuclear for half the power would cost 4 to 6 trillion dollars. The total expenditure on energy by the US was 1.2 trillion dollars. You're asking the US government (and others) to spend, at the least, more than 4 times the present amount on a department that isn't the military. Good luck with that.
As for private enterprise, unless Amazon or Google are planning on changing into nuclear, I would put that scenario in the "far-future" category.
Sources: https://www.statista.com/topics/4127/el ... generation
/http://css.umich.edu/sites/default/files/US%20Energy%20System_CSS03-11_e2020.pdf
• It's much safer now, I know that. However, there are still risks. Multiple and unexpected failures are built into society's complex and tightly-coupled nuclear reactor systems. Such accidents are unavoidable and cannot be designed around.
There have been 99 nuclear incidents in the world and there are only 440 nuclear plants. That doesn't seem a comfortable ratio to me. 1 accident for every 4 plants. Also, this constant rebuttal that "Soviet incompetence was the reason for nuclear disasters and it won't ever happen in the civilised world" is a annoying and misleading idea. More than two-thirds of nuclear accidents have happened in the US.
Fukushima raised doubts that even a highly developed country like Japan could fully manage the safety of nuclear power. And don't say that they had an earthquake. They have them all the time. The reactor had backups that were supposed to stabilise the reactor after the earthquake. But they failed. Obviously they should have put backups for the backups and then backups for the backups for the backups and so on. I am not saying it's not safe, but there certainly are risks. Just trying to clarify the position of some people.
Moreover, many statisticians and safety specialists believe that there's a 50% chance of another Chernobyl before 2050 and another Three Mile Island accident within the next decade.
Furthermore, this constant proclamation that nuclear is a zero-emissions fuel is just verifiably false. Nuclear produces 80-180 g CO2 per KWH. It's not high but it's not zero either. For comparison, a standard coal-powered thermal power plant produces 0.9 kg CO2 per KWH.
Sources: https://web.archive.org/web/20130606023005/
http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/ ... -fukushima
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-0 ... -says.html
http://web.mit.edu/nuclearpower/pdf/nuc ... r-full.pdf
https://www.technologyreview.com/2015/0 ... ecialists/
https://web.archive.org/web/20130116084833/
http://spp.nus.edu.sg/docs/policy-brief ... vacool.pdf
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/04/18/ ... wer-plant/
https://www3.epa.gov/ttnchie1/conferenc ... mittal.pdf
•Delay? Solar is making progress in leaps and bounds. Now you are just being disingenuous. Just in the year 2017, photovoltaic capacity increased by 95 Gigawatts, with a 34% growth per year of new installations. Total installed capacity exceeded 401 GW by the end of the year, sufficient to supply 2.1 percent of the world's total electricity consumption. In the last decade (2008–18), the globally installed capacity of off-grid solar PV has grown more than tenfold. I could just keep going on singing the praises of solar . It's the future. Get with it.
Sources: http://www.iea-pvps.org/fileadmin/dam/p ... 16__1_.pdf
https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRE ... V_2019.pdf
The 99 incidents is not really telling, because most were not big deal.
Incidents that did no harm means the design kept them from causing harm.
Chernobyl is not really possible. Statically looking at how many accidents happened in the past assumes all plants are the same. There are only 10 Chernobyl type reactors left, but the problem of the control rods has been fixed.
So Chernobyl cannot happen again.
Fukushima killed at most one person. And still it was an old plant. With old designs, in unused circumstances that cannot happen most places.
Three Mile Island killed no one.
TMI shows nuclear meltdowns can be contained with a proper containment structure.
Which all new plants are required to have.
Solar is growing, but from a low base. And one nuclear plant can produce more than millions of solar panels (which are damaging to the environment to produce BTW). Solar has a massive waste problem:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wired. ... -trash/amp
Okay technically no source is literally emissions free, I mean the trucks that delivered solar panels to my house produced emissions. So did the ships the shipped them from Germany.
Solar does not power cargo ships though...
Obviously solar has a place. Solar is good in many ways. As a peaking source.
Solar and nuclear are better together.
To save the environment we are going to have to use both.
Solar can replace peaking gas plants, it already is. But we still have a baseload problem.
Nuclear will always be around, because of its superiority in Navy applications anyways.
But nuclear can and should help replace fossil civilian power as well.
I must say I am not a big fan of the wind thing, due to the destruction of the natural landscape it causes.
On farmland sure, but elsewhere it is a problem.