2020 US General Election Thread XII: The End

[Nazeroth]

they might be confused, since appearntly people can keep bringing in votes, they might think it's okay.

You’re mischaracterising the situation.

What Biden fought for was for the system to accept any mail ballots postmarked before Election Day, but that arrives afterwards, because it simply isn’t fair to punish the voters for the shortcomings of the postal system. Trump, on the other hand, has consistently insisted that all votes arriving after Election Day should be invalidated regardless of when they were postmarked, but is now flip flopping with regard to PA, and saying that even votes postmarked after Election Day should be allowed to be counted.

meh, well let the lawyers take a peek

[Cisairse]

If something goes wrong and Biden wins NC that means that Sabato correctly called every single state and district

[Nagakawa]

You’re mischaracterising the situation.

What Biden fought for was for the system to accept any mail ballots postmarked before Election Day, but that arrives afterwards, because it simply isn’t fair to punish the voters for the shortcomings of the postal system. Trump, on the other hand, has consistently insisted that all votes arriving after Election Day should be invalidated regardless of when they were postmarked, but is now flip flopping with regard to PA, and saying that even votes postmarked after Election Day should be allowed to be counted.

meh, well let the lawyers take a peek

Sure, I guess. Whatever helps you sleep better.

[Picairn]

Lmao. You were the one who submitted his words as evidence You were the one who quoted him as proof the EC was for the slave states.

Because it is, but keep on denying.

And now that I've shown that isn't true, that your argument is still correct? What the hell are you on about.

You didn't prove anything besides a cheap gotcha.

And even if the other Southern delegates did support the EC, it still doesn't support the notion that it was introduced to appease the Southern States, because the people who proposed it explain exactly why they proposed it and their reasons have fuck all to do with slavery.

But I'm not denying that. That narrative is absolutely true. The problem you're not grasping is that thad fuck all to do with the Electoral College. It had to do with representation in the House of Representatives. I.e the 3/5ths compromise. The 3/5ths compromise was introduced to appease Southern States. And it was erased by the 13th, 14th, and 15th amendments.

How the EC was apportioned came long after they decided to included it in the first place. Apportionment of the EC was also decided during the Connecticut Compromise, not the 3/5ths.

No, the 3/5th Compromise also gave the Southern states a third more electoral votes than if slaves had been ignored, but fewer than if slaves and free people had been counted equally. In short, thanks to the 3/5th Compromise the South gained more advantage and political power in the EC. The 3/5th Compromise is certainly a part of the EC because it dealt with how states would count their population and apportionment of EC votes, thus boosting the South's EC votes. While the Compromise has been erased by the 3 Reconstruction Amendments, it didn't negate the fact that the EC was created to appease the slave states.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/e ... nstitution

[Cisairse]

I mean, the Democrats haven't lost an election (by popular vote) since John Kerry was their standard-bearer, so I'm not sure how much you can even really say they're doing things correctly or incorrectly.

[Jedi Council]

I feel like if Georgia goes blue, it'll really influence how people think and feel about this election, for no other reason than it takes up a decent chunk of the visual map.

I think so too, but going forward the Dems will REALLY need to sharpen their economic message and make that front and center. Are there other problems they can tackle? Yes, and those can also be incredibly important, but they need to pick a strong alternative economic message from the Republicans and stick to it like they got glued to it. Direct all questions to the economics and press hard on them.

The irony is that Republican Presidents have performed worse economically than Democratic ones, and the GOP economic policy playbook is basically just low taxes and low regulations because "muh freedoms."

[Senkaku]

You’re mischaracterising the situation.

What Biden fought for was for the system to accept any mail ballots postmarked before Election Day, but that arrives afterwards, because it simply isn’t fair to punish the voters for the shortcomings of the postal system. Trump, on the other hand, has consistently insisted that all votes arriving after Election Day should be invalidated regardless of when they were postmarked, but is now flip flopping with regard to PA, and saying that even votes postmarked after Election Day should be allowed to be counted.

meh, well let the lawyers take a peek

I mean they... already are? but yeah, nothing goes wrong once you bring even more lawyers in to argue about sensitive political problems I guess, if there's anyone's judgements in the world we can count on it's LAWYERS lmao

I don't even know what to call this... appeal to legalism?

[Forsher]

The pollsters were wrong once again. The shy Trump voter really does exist. Nigel Farage was absolutely right all along.

Social Desirability Bias is a Thing, yes, but that doesn't mean Shy Trumpers are.

The US is not NZ. The status quo of an election is not expected to swing on "special votes". The election night count is not seen as being "preliminary" with the bit that matters coming weeks later (this year, 17 Oct and 6 Nov).

And, yet, these are two things people have spent months talking about. And one of the main reasons why is the question of early votes. If you read 538's pre-election coverage (or, possibly, watch the model talk videos, can't remember), they were talking about how pollsters had difficult and unclear decisions to make about how to deal with early voting.

So... jumping to "Shy Trumpers" as an explanation for what happened... seems extremely premature.

Even though it appears Joe Biden may win this one, it will be by the narrowest of margins and the Left's ability to smugly gloat about their opponents' "defeat" and mine conservative salt has been greatly and thankfully limited

Yeah... Biden could win 306 electoral college votes which is... not close. He's definitely going to have an historically large share of all American adults, a big popular vote margin and more than 50% of the popular vote. And, sure, the Democrats had a really bad, er, night in the House and have cause to be disappointed in the Senate, but Trump's repudiated. He'll have never have come close to winning a majority of Americans over, he's probably going to have lost key states that he won handily last time (in addition to the ones he's already lost that he won narrowly) and he'll have done this against an environment where the Republican establishment that used Trump to advance its own priorities has turned on him (to such an extent his children have complained about the lack of support).

The Trump Era always had a weak claim to existence (all the big moments from it have just been race flashpoints)... and it's withering on the vine. There is a question about what happens to Trump's supporters... the die hards... but if Shy Trumpers exist, that's not a concern. They'll fade back into obscurity or drift into militia groups (if they weren't already members) that ultimately do nothing or get arrested.

[Kowani]

meh, well let the lawyers take a peek

I mean they... already are? but yeah, nothing goes wrong once you bring even more lawyers in to argue about sensitive political problems I guess, if there's anyone's judgements in the world we can count on it's LAWYERS lmao

I don't even know what to call this... appeal to legalism?

"I got called out for not knowing what I was talking about so let me use this cheap defence"

[Nazeroth]

I wonder if Biden would re-sign the Patriot Act

[Cisairse]

He's definitely going to have an historically large share of all American adults

Just to underscore precisely how historically large this share is, based on the data I've seen, it's completely unprecedented in the entire history of American elections.

[Saiwania]

306 isn't close but its not a big lead either, it is just a repeat of 2016 but an inverse result. Fact is that Joe Biden is only picking up several states by 5% or less. It means Trump is still far more popular than people give him credit for.

[Nakena]

I wonder if Biden would re-sign the Patriot Act

Very likely. And he'd do so with broad bi-partisan support.

[Kubra]

He's definitely going to have an historically large share of all American adults

Just to underscore precisely how historically large this share is, based on the data I've seen, it's completely unprecedented in the entire history of American elections.

Is this proportionally or as an absolute number?

[Phoenicaea]

^_Forsher, i side with you even if i fear your sight blind. ‘shy voter’ is most disgraceful event nation could get. people well aware of their shame, nonetheless will ask mafia aid while formally comply laws.

[Cisairse]

It means Trump is still far more popular than people give him credit for.

And yet still hilariously less popular than Joe Biden.

[Nazeroth]

^_Forsher, i side with you even if fear your sight blind with optimism. ‘shy voter’ is most disgraceful event nation could get. people well aware of their shame, nonetheless will ask mafia aid while formally comply laws.

they are shy because they can LITERALLY be assaulted in public for being a Trump supporter

[Picairn]

306 isn't close but its not a big lead either, it is just a repeat of 2016 but an inverse result. Fact is that Joe Biden is only picking up several states by 5% or less. It means Trump is still far more popular than people give him credit for.

You should have seen how smug the Trump supporters were in 2016 even when he won with thin margins in batteground states.

What goes around comes around.

[Nazeroth]

It means Trump is still far more popular than people give him credit for.

And yet still hilariously less popular than Joe Biden.

i find it terrifying that so many would be "excited" to remove Trump and replace him with someone who will most likley plunge us into another war.

[Jedi Council]

306 isn't close but its not a big lead either, it is just a repeat of 2016 but an inverse result. Fact is that Joe Biden is only picking up several states by 5% or less. It means Trump is still far more popular than people give him credit for.

I mean, if you asked Trump, 306 was the biggest margin in the history of ever.

Lets be honest, 306 is a number any candidate would be happy with.

[Tyrassueb]

It means Trump is still far more popular than people give him credit for.

And yet still hilariously less popular than Joe Biden.

By around 3% no less. Also, any full list of age demographics on who voted how this year? I feel like it MIGHT still be that Trump is just dominating the older vote since even my grandmother who has been in hospital for the last year due to worries over strokes (and who tested positive for COVID yesterday as well, sadly) voted Trump.

[Jedi Council]

And yet still hilariously less popular than Joe Biden.

i find it terrifying that so many would be "excited" to remove Trump and replace him with someone who will most likley plunge us into another war.

You must have an incredible crystal ball hidden somewhere, wanna show it to me sometime?

[Cisairse]

Just to underscore precisely how historically large this share is, based on the data I've seen, it's completely unprecedented in the entire history of American elections.

Is this proportionally or as an absolute number?

Well, both, but only the former really matters considering we're discussing the vote share as a percent of all adults (which is by definition a porportional metric).

Mr. Biden is on track to exceeded 33% (and possibly go much higher, depending on turnout in slow-counting blue states), which no candidate has ever done in the history of the U.S. The previous record was Ronald Reagan in 1984, who reached only 31.3%.

[Nazeroth]

i find it terrifying that so many would be "excited" to remove Trump and replace him with someone who will most likley plunge us into another war.

You must have an incredible crystal ball hidden somewhere, wanna show it to me sometime?

I have no doubt in my mind that Biden and Harris will push us into another conflict zone, I'm okay eating crow if I'm wrong.

[Albrenia]

It means Trump is still far more popular than people give him credit for.

And yet still hilariously less popular than Joe Biden.

A fact which burns in Trump's mind like a hot poker, I imagine.