2020 US General Election Thread XII: The End

[Jerzylvania]

Trump's forces will need to fight to the last. I forbid any breakout attempts. PA can supply them from the air or it can't. GA will be the relief force. We'll see if either or both pans out soon or tomorrow.

This post sounds way too larpy to be serious.

We have to deal with the Weird Sisters first.

[Andsed]

(Image)

Well that is quite comforting to here right now.

[The Huskar Social Union]

In other election news, a young man who committed revenge porn got elected.

its a very blue district quite upsetting he won though.

Because he was blue

[Telconi]

Um. Chiefs of staff of Brazilian Armed Forces reportedly briefing President Jair Bolsonaro on contingencies in the event that President Trump calls on Brazilian military intervention to guarantee integrity of elections.

Clicking that brought me to a very, very sketchy part of Twitter.

You mean Twitter?

[The Commonwealth of Tennessee]

Oh for heaven's sakes!

If you’re intent on multitasking, go take over the NV counting!

Look man my car has 239,000 miles on it and has had quite the spotty maintenance record, I believe the farthest I'd make it out of Shelby Co. is West Arkansas, and that's pushing it!

[Sanghyeok]

"MARTHA MCSALLEY WILL RELIEVE OUR REPUBLICAN FORCES IN GEORGIA! SHE WILL TAKE THE 8TH BASED PEPI BRIGADE AND FLANK THE MARXIST DEMOCRATS IN THE REAR"
"Uh... my president.. McSalley..."

lmfao that's golden.

Strictly follow Comrade Biden to victory in the protracted people's election war!

[Gravlen]

They think Trump's Macbeth, and ambition is his folly
He's angry at math, a pain in the ass, a massive pain
Biden is Banquo, McConnell's Macduff
And Birnam Wood is Pennsylvania on its way to Dunsinane

Who says "Out out damn Spot I say!"

Melanka Trump?

[Kowani]

Biden's AZ margin at 68K

[Forsher]

Here's how it goes Shofercia...

A lead of 1 percentage point, at the level of US states, is usually going to be measured in tens of thousands of votes (and frequently leads within 1 percentage point). To have a recount actually change matters, tens of thousands of votes have to be miscounted... which is extremely unlikely. Similarly, a lead is a lead and all that actually matters is the final count... acting like certain kinds of surmountable leads are better than others merely serves to give the impression that some leads are more legitimate than others (which is exactly the problem with Trump's little declaration).

You want to introduce your new Google material? Okay... let's subject it to what I said...

but in the REALITY of US Elections, we actually have more than four color pallets

Google does not. We're talking about Google.

My point about Google was that they should use five color pallets, one for victory for each party, that's two, one for likely victory for each party, that's also two, so four total, and a neutral pallet for states that have less than one percent difference

Which is actually just completely ignoring those 100 words (that's a Doctoral Thesis according to Shofercia).

Newsflash Shof... colouring leads with less than one percentage point (not 1%, one percentage point) makes those leads seem less real or, alternatively, the other leads seem more real. That's bad. And it's exactly what I said initially:

a lead is a lead and all that actually matters is the final count... acting like certain kinds of surmountable leads are better than others merely serves to give the impression that some leads are more legitimate than others (which is exactly the problem with Trump's little declaration)

What's that saying is either... don't colour in non-called states in any kind of shade (a four colour system... Republican, Democrat, Other, Uncalled) or colour in all leads exactly the same (a six colour system... R Called, R Lead, D Called, D Lead, O Called, O Lead).

So, Shof, your "new" material that I ignored... is just talking completely past what I said initially. You have not engaged in a conversation. That's why I dismissed it with nothing more than "I know what you're saying". There's no point in engaging with you again when you've taken post after post to go right back to where you were when I initially disagreed with your stance. It's not new material, in other words.

it was about aesthetics, and being as clear as possible.

For those of you who don't know... and given Shof's rants about theoretical statistics I suspect he is among them... this is one of the major fields in statistics... graphics. People write entire books on the subject. Not chapters within books... books on nothing but this stuff.

The point of any graphic should be to be clear about what's important. Sometimes you want to show different things because different things are important. That means you choose a different kind of graphic. A classic example of where you might make this kind of determination is if you're trying to show that a third group is different to the other two groups. Using three colours in this situation is probably going to obfuscate the point... but if it's really important to remember that there are actually three groups, using just the two colours is a really bad idea. To give an example... imagine that we're trying to show Republicans, Democrats and Independents have different opinions of the Electoral College. Probably not a good idea to use Red for Republicans and Grey for the other two. However, if we're trying to show that forwards, defenders and midfielders have different touch maps in order to isolate where midfielders play, it's probably a much better idea to use just the two colours.

Using colours that treat some leads differently to others is... a really bad idea. As we have seen with Georgia and Michigan (and possibly also Wisconsin) in this election. And we're probably going to see it with Pennsylvania too... the difference is now 1.2 percentage points. If you have close states shaded differently, your choice of colours implies that "distant" states are more real than close states... but the realness of a lead doesn't depend on its magnitude at all, but that's the dimension we're colouring on. An alternative way of looking at this is that we're using one dimension (colours) to represent TWO different dimensions that have an arcane relationship, i.e. calls and leads. That's an extremely bad practice.

(Colouring states by the margin for a given candidate with final vote counts avoids all these issues because we're using colour to convey only one dimension worth of information.)

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

If you’re intent on multitasking, go take over the NV counting!

Look man my car has 239,000 miles on it and has had quite the spotty maintenance record, I believe the farthest I'd make it out of Shelby Co. is West Arkansas, and that's pushing it!

As an AR resident, if that’s as far as you can make it, I’m so sorry.

[Page]

My pessemistic projections have Biden finishing at either 290 or 306. I don't want to conclude anything until the situation is actually confirmed to be unsalvageable and the 269 stalemate isn't happening.

Trump's forces will need to fight to the last. I forbid any breakout attempts. PA can supply them from the air or it can't. GA will be the relief force. We'll see if either or both pans out soon or tomorrow.

I love this because I know what happened to a guy who had forbidden any break out attempts just a few days later.

[San Lumen]

So we're fucked?

At worse the republicans will hold the senate by two. At best it’s 50/50. Most likely the republicans hold it by 1

I hope democrats win both. They should organize and get out the vote like crazy for those. Plus the 2022 map its not very favorable for Republicans. its the literal opposite of 2018.

[The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp]

In other election news, a young man who committed revenge porn got elected.

Thats kinda shitty

Biden's AZ margin at 68K

Can we get to 69k

[Andsed]

So Trump is leading in PA by about 79k. Its currently 3,260,127 to 3,181,789. Trumps lead is shrinking. I think PA is going blue lads.

[Thermodolia]

Biden's AZ margin at 68K

Looks like AZ is going to Biden. A 306 EC victory might be possible y’all

[Jerzylvania]

Who says "Out out damn Spot I say!"

Melanka Trump?

She bought a doggie for Barron.

[Borderlands of Rojava]

My pessemistic projections have Biden finishing at either 290 or 306. I don't want to conclude anything until the situation is actually confirmed to be unsalvageable and the 269 stalemate isn't happening.

Trump's forces will need to fight to the last. I forbid any breakout attempts. PA can supply them from the air or it can't. GA will be the relief force. We'll see if either or both pans out soon or tomorrow.

I forgot that you had a love for war. War is hell Sai.

[Page]

Biden's AZ margin at 68K

It's over then.

I still really want PA though.

[San Lumen]

Biden's AZ margin at 68K

It's over then.

I still really want PA though.

what makes you say its over?

[The Commonwealth of Tennessee]

lmfao that's golden.

Strictly follow Comrade Biden to victory in the protracted people's election war!

What an alternate universe that'd be lol.

[Jerzylvania]

So Trump is leading in PA by about 79k. Its currently 3,260,127 to 3,181,789. Trumps lead is shrinking. I think PA is going blue lads.

Trump's presidency is circling the drain.

[Sanghyeok]

My pessemistic projections have Biden finishing at either 290 or 306. I don't want to conclude anything until the situation is actually confirmed to be unsalvageable and the 269 stalemate isn't happening.

Trump's forces will need to fight to the last. I forbid any breakout attempts. PA can supply them from the air or it can't. GA will be the relief force. We'll see if either or both pans out soon or tomorrow.

Army Group PA will be facing the full force of Democrat artillery. We advise a full withdraw to Arizona in the long march., and continue operating on a guerilla level for the next few years while building up bases of support.

[Kowani]

Trump's biggest obstacle in these lawsuits is the rampant incompetence of his campaign

[The Huskar Social Union]

Even though at this stage it is incredibly unlikely. Like super super unlikely.

He could still win


But of course Jeb is set to be president so no need to worry.

[Thermodolia]

Oh for heaven's sakes!

If you’re intent on multitasking, go take over the NV counting!

It might take me 48 hours to drive there but hey they won’t be done by the time I get there anyway