The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is an Ethiopian attempt to control the Blue Nile and reconfigure the topography of the Nile Basin. It will have a hydroelectric capacity twice that of the Hoover Dam, providing enough cheap energy to power the entire nation and its neighbors. Problem, Egypt's water supply is 95% dependent on the Nile (the majority of which comes from the Blue Nile), and some studies suggested that the dam will reduce Egypt's total arable land by 46%, which understandably is a grave existential crisis. Now, almost a quarter of the Egyptian population lives off subsistence farming.
If the Nile is dammed up, the result would be one of the largest humanitarian disaster in history that might see around 30 million people displaced, a refugee crisis large enough to alter European civilization.
As a possible solution, US President Donald Trump said:
Mr Trump and Mr Hamdok expressed hopes for a peaceful resolution to the dispute. But Mr Trump also said "it's a very dangerous situation because Egypt is not going to be able to live that way". He continued: "And I said it and I say it loud and clear - they'll blow up that dam. And they have to do something."
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54674313
Admittedly, Egypt's military situation and mobilization capability is currently pathetic and is certain to lose if a war actually breaks out. Currently, America, Israel, and the Gulf states support Egypt. Iran, Turkey, and China support Ethiopia. As both sides failed to reach an agreement in August, Ethiopia vowed to press on, resulting in the US pulling out aid.
Tajikistan is damming Uzbekistan, another desert nation reliant on a singular source of water.
Karimov opposed the Rogun Dam and in a 2012 statement seemed to imply Tajikistan’s pursuit of the project could lead to war. Uzbekistan, and to a lesser extent Kazakhstan, had long worried that reduced water flow in the Vakhsh River could impact Uzbekistan’s production of cotton, which it views as a strategic commodity.
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2018/07/ ... -problems/
Uzbekistan, whose population size and military and logistics far exceed that of their neighbors, can conquer Tajikistan to secure its water security. This will probably provoke international wrath and meddling especially from China, Russia, and possibly Iran. That being said, tensions do have calmed down after Uzbekistan got a new leader more supportive of a peaceful resolution.
“Go ahead and build it, but we hold to certain guarantees in accordance with these conventions that have been signed by you,” Uzbek Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Komilov said in a televised appearance on July 5.
Doesn't mean the problem has ended. Central Asia's doubling population, horrific desertification combined with Aral Sea's, stagnant economic growth unable to provide prosperity to the youth, and brutally oppressive political systems are actually pretty similar to the Middle East before the Arab Spring. So the potential for the entire region to collapse into chaos, instability, radicalism, civil wars, etc. is substantial.
Africa has had massive population growth and a young population with borders that make no sense, entrenched self-serving elites and not enough economic growth to legitimize it. This is also the same situation in the Middle East before the Arab Spring, except that the issues are far worse. I mean, cities like Lagos are supposed to have a population of 32 million in 2050 and 57 million in 2075, which isn't really sustainable. Thus, of the twenty highest-ranked countries that are deemed fragile states, twelve are situated in areas of the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa, where climate change is expected to create heightened levels of water scarcity. That includes five countries of the Horn: Eritrea, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan.
Competition for scarce resources, fueled by famine and droughts, has also exacerbated tensions among African tribes and has led to an outbreak of violence in the region. Scarce resources are leading to violent inter-tribal conflicts in Ethiopia and Kenya, particularly in the Omo River Valley. Climate change will likely increase the frequency and intensity of these events. Water weaponization is also a thing. In 2011, Somalia was hit by regional droughts that have been linked to climate change. During this time, the jihadist fundamentalist group Al-Shabaab changed its traditional guerilla tactics and started to cut off liberated cities from their water sources so that they could demonstrate at least some kind of power and presence. Climate change, lack of food and continued conflict involving water weaponization took an enormous social toll.
China is building 300 dams in Tibet, which will strangle the sources for the Ganges and the Brahmaputra rivers, of which a billion people depend upon. With 21 Indian cities running out of water, half the population faces high-to-extreme water stress, and about 200,000 die each year due to inadequate access to safe water right now, this is absolutely horrifying. China is not willing to negotiate on this, since much of northern China is projected to run out of water by 2030 due to industrialization and pollution. The dams will also serve as a massive bargaining chip that can turn India into a Chinese puppet state. As Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Iran, Myanmar, Nepal, and other countries are already influenced by China, this will give China complete control over the vast majority of Asia if this is achieved. Or, it can provoke a war (they have clashed five times in the past), where the US will side with India, potentially turning it into a world war.
A tiny difference between this case and Ethiopia's case is that both countries are also armed with nuclear weapons.
Right now their combined population is 2.8 billion, which is where the thread title comes from. Admittedly the likelihood of a nuclear holocaust is not that high, but it's still a possibility, and besides a full conventional war between the two would still be unfathomably catastrophic.
So this is some risk of water-related conflicts, which I predict will become a larger and larger issue as time goes on. While countries like India are rapidly depleting their groundwater, rainfall patterns around the world are becoming more unpredictable due to climate change, meaning there will be less water in reserves. According to the U.S. Intelligence Community Assessment of Global Water Security, by 2030 humanity’s “annual global water requirements” will exceed “current sustainable water supplies” by 40%. The number of people living in river basins under severe water stress is projected to reach 3.9 billion by 2050, totaling over 40% of the world’s population. Now, as shown by the Tajik-Uzbek issue, "conflicts" doesn't necessarily mean "war", but it does mean "Bad Things".
Is there anything that can or should be done, maybe a technology? Is there anything that will be done? Thoughts?