Military coup in Honduras

[Dempublicents1]

but totally par for the course. never believe anyone who militarily removes an elected official from power and forces them into exile when they claim they are doing it for freedom™. the original action betrays their intentions all too well.

I don't generally trust any politician who says they're doing something for freedom. As much as I doubt we can trust the Honduran government's word on what they were doing, I also highly doubt that Zalaya was pushing this referendum for any reason other than trying to keep himself in power.

My question to this is:

How would this help keep him in power?

If the term limits didn't stop him from doing so, he could run again and again and again. If he's popular enough, he'll likely get reelected again and again and again. That keeps him in power.

[Greed and Death]

but totally par for the course. never believe anyone who militarily removes an elected official from power and forces them into exile when they claim they are doing it for freedom™. the original action betrays their intentions all too well.

I don't generally trust any politician who says they're doing something for freedom. As much as I doubt we can trust the Honduran government's word on what they were doing, I also highly doubt that Zalaya was pushing this referendum for any reason other than trying to keep himself in power.

My question to this is:

How would this help keep him in power?

Honduras has a recent history of dictators "winning" elections repetitively to stay in power. The history of Honduras was the motivation for this unchangeable section of the Constitution.

[Gift-of-god]

If the term limits didn't stop him from doing so, he could run again and again and again. If he's popular enough, he'll likely get reelected again and again and again. That keeps him in power.

So, if he gets the referendum he wants, and if the people vote yes, and if the ballot is included, and if people then vote yes on that, and if the assembly is filled with his supporters, and if they decide to rewrite the parts that they're not allowed to, and if they are allowed to, then he will stay in power if he gets the nomination and the vote.

I counted eight 'ifs' there.

[Gift-of-god]

Honduras has a recent history of dictators "winning" elections repetitively to stay in power. The history of Honduras was the motivation for this unchangeable section of the Constitution.

I'm not so sure about that.

[Dempublicents1]

If the term limits didn't stop him from doing so, he could run again and again and again. If he's popular enough, he'll likely get reelected again and again and again. That keeps him in power.

So, if he gets the referendum he wants, and if the people vote yes, and if the ballot is included, and if people then vote yes on that, and if the assembly is filled with his supporters, and if they decide to rewrite the parts that they're not allowed to, and if they are allowed to, then he will stay in power if he gets the nomination and the vote.

I counted eight 'ifs' there.

A politician's life is full of ifs.

Note: I didn't say he would stay in power. I said I think this was an attempt to do so. He had nothing to lose if it didn't happen - he can't run again under the current law anyways.

[Gift-of-god]

A politician's life is full of ifs.

Note: I didn't say he would stay in power. I said I think this was an attempt to do so. He had nothing to lose if it didn't happen - he can't run again under the current law anyways.

From my perspective, it would seem that if you were going to try to maintain yourself in a position of power, you would actually put a plan together that has some chance of succeeding. If it was an attempt to stay in power, we would expect him to have a plan that didn't contain so many things that are completely outside his control. Either he is inept, which seems odd as he did manage to become the most powerful person in the country, or perhaps he never planned to seek personal power but had other motivations instead.

I'm beginning to wonder if this whole 'he wants to stay in power' is just an excuse for getting him out of office.

[Aelosia]

If the term limits didn't stop him from doing so, he could run again and again and again. If he's popular enough, he'll likely get reelected again and again and again. That keeps him in power.

So, if he gets the referendum he wants, and if the people vote yes, and if the ballot is included, and if people then vote yes on that, and if the assembly is filled with his supporters, and if they decide to rewrite the parts that they're not allowed to, and if they are allowed to, then he will stay in power if he gets the nomination and the vote.

I counted eight 'ifs' there.

Indeed, the Supreme Court was more than a little bit "touchy", about this issue, that is clear. However, I guess they wanted to stop what they see as a snowball before it started to roll down the slope.

Honduras has a recent history of dictators "winning" elections repetitively to stay in power. The history of Honduras was the motivation for this unchangeable section of the Constitution.

I'm not so sure about that.

According to the guys that created it, it is. According to the legislators, that is.

From my perspective, it would seem that if you were going to try to maintain yourself in a position of power, you would actually put a plan together that has some chance of succeeding. If it was an attempt to stay in power, we would expect him to have a plan that didn't contain so many things that are completely outside his control. Either he is inept, which seems odd as he did manage to become the most powerful person in the country, or perhaps he never planned to seek personal power but had other motivations instead.

I'm beginning to wonder if this whole 'he wants to stay in power' is just an excuse for getting him out of office.

Said things aren't entirely out of his control. Maybe he has a plan. As you said, he is the most powerful man in a country. Long term could be the key.

Maybe he doesn't. Only Zelaya knows.

[Grave_n_idle]

If the term limits didn't stop him from doing so, he could run again and again and again. If he's popular enough, he'll likely get reelected again and again and again. That keeps him in power.

So, if he gets the referendum he wants, and if the people vote yes, and if the ballot is included, and if people then vote yes on that, and if the assembly is filled with his supporters, and if they decide to rewrite the parts that they're not allowed to, and if they are allowed to, then he will stay in power if he gets the nomination and the vote.

I counted eight 'ifs' there.

I don't see it.

Even with all the ifs - the very best that could happen would be the formation of a convocation after the referendum votes were counted - by which time, Zelaya would be out of office, no?

[Grave_n_idle]

I don't generally trust any politician who says they're doing something for freedom. As much as I doubt we can trust the Honduran government's word on what they were doing, I also highly doubt that Zalaya was pushing this referendum for any reason other than trying to keep himself in power.

My question to this is:

How would this help keep him in power?

Honduras has a recent history of dictators "winning" elections repetitively to stay in power. The history of Honduras was the motivation for this unchangeable section of the Constitution.

Honduras has a recent history of military coups, and juntas.

[Grave_n_idle]

Indeed, the Supreme Court was more than a little bit "touchy", about this issue, that is clear. However, I guess they wanted to stop what they see as a snowball before it started to roll down the slope.

Which means they acted prematurely, which means they acted outside of their own constitution.

No matter what Zelaya's ambitions were, the supreme court of Honduras has torpedoed their credibility by placing themselves above the law. Fortunately, in true Honduran fashion, the military seem ready to pick up the pieces.

[Aelosia]

Indeed, the Supreme Court was more than a little bit "touchy", about this issue, that is clear. However, I guess they wanted to stop what they see as a snowball before it started to roll down the slope.

Which means they acted prematurely, which means they acted outside of their own constitution.

No matter what Zelaya's ambitions were, the supreme court of Honduras has torpedoed their credibility by placing themselves above the law. Fortunately, in true Honduran fashion, the military seem ready to pick up the pieces.

Now that, however, is taking it a step too far. They didn't acted outside the constitution, they interpreted a situation in a loose border in a controversial way. It is different. Wolrd is coloured in shades of grey, not in black and white.

The Supreme Court of Honduras didn't place themselves outside the law with their ruling. Actually, they are, in a sense, the law, so it is pretty difficult for them to act outside themselves.

Said Supreme Court, however, torpedoed its credibility when allowed a coup d'etat made by some military personnel who decided to kick out the president outside of the country, instead of following the administrative proccess subject to the law they say they represent.

[Grave_n_idle]

Now that, however, is taking it a step too far. They didn't acted outside the constitution,

Easy enough to resolve. Where does the constitution say that it is illegal to ask the people if they want to convene a convocation?

I suspect you'll have to find the part that grants the supreme court the right to have the military intervene in that case, also.

[Aelosia]

Easy enough to resolve. Where does the constitution say that it is illegal to ask the people if they want to convene a convocation?

To organize a referendum can be seen as the beginning of the process. This is not an interview. This is, even if not binding, an officcial process made by the electoral authorities. It doesn't matter if I agree, it can be seen that way, and they decided to see it that way. Me? I would had keep talking about it to reach a middle ground. They decided not to do so, however, I am not an authority of Honduras. They are.

I suspect you'll have to find the part that grants the supreme court the right to have the military intervene in that case, also.

You missed the part where I said that was out of order, illegal and everything? I said SEVERAL times during the thread that the military intervention was out of place entirely. Have you been reading?

Of course you can't find that part in the constitution, because it doesn't exist, and because I have been saying it since the beginning of the thread.

[Bears Armed]

Either he is inept, which seems odd as he did manage to become the most powerful person in the country,

Considering what so many people here in NSG had to say about George W. Bush, is this really a convincing argument?

[Free Soviets]

http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/coup-“president”-installs-nephew-“mayor”-honduras’-second-city
http://www.tribunalatina.com/es/notices ... _19090.php

being the nephew of the new 'president' is apparently good enough reason to be declared mayor of a major city after its actual mayor is dragged off by the military for not approving of the coup. yay democracy!

[Gravlen]

http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/coup-“president”-installs-nephew-“mayor”-honduras’-second-city
http://www.tribunalatina.com/es/notices ... _19090.php

being the nephew of the new 'president' is apparently good enough reason to be declared mayor of a major city after its actual mayor is dragged off by the military for not approving of the coup. yay democracy!

How completely unexpected...

Latest I heard is that the New Regime is floating the possibility of early elections. Could be a way out of the mess they've created.

[Gravlen]

I don't generally trust any politician who says they're doing something for freedom. As much as I doubt we can trust the Honduran government's word on what they were doing, I also highly doubt that Zalaya was pushing this referendum for any reason other than trying to keep himself in power.

My question to this is:

How would this help keep him in power?

If the term limits didn't stop him from doing so, he could run again and again and again. If he's popular enough, he'll likely get reelected again and again and again. That keeps him in power.

In theory, yes. At present his approval ratings is in the 30's, and he wouldn't have been in the running for the next election.

And it's highly doubtful that the constitution actualy would have been changed - see the eight "ifs" above that sum up the hurdles he would have to overcome.

[Gravlen]

I don't generally trust any politician who says they're doing something for freedom. As much as I doubt we can trust the Honduran government's word on what they were doing, I also highly doubt that Zalaya was pushing this referendum for any reason other than trying to keep himself in power.

My question to this is:

How would this help keep him in power?

Honduras has a recent history of dictators "winning" elections repetitively to stay in power. The history of Honduras was the motivation for this unchangeable section of the Constitution.

Was that a real danger in this case?

[Grave_n_idle]

...and he wouldn't have been in the running for the next election.

Right. To me, this is the most important fact - and one that seems to be being ignored...

[Greed and Death]

My question to this is:

How would this help keep him in power?

Honduras has a recent history of dictators "winning" elections repetitively to stay in power. The history of Honduras was the motivation for this unchangeable section of the Constitution.

Was that a real danger in this case?

Congress, the Supreme court, and the military thought so.
I don't think I can tell personally with out a trip to Honduras.

[Galloism]

Congress, the Supreme court, and the military thought so.
I don't think I can tell personally with out a trip to Honduras.

Well, if you're buying, I need to come along as a uh... technical adviser. Yeah, that's it - a technical adviser.

[Greed and Death]

Congress, the Supreme court, and the military thought so.
I don't think I can tell personally with out a trip to Honduras.

Well, if you're buying, I need to come along as a uh... technical adviser. Yeah, that's it - a technical adviser.

I am not buying, I will get Obama to send me to investigate. These sorts of things are best investigated in the bars.

[Galloism]

Congress, the Supreme court, and the military thought so.
I don't think I can tell personally with out a trip to Honduras.

Well, if you're buying, I need to come along as a uh... technical adviser. Yeah, that's it - a technical adviser.

I am not buying, I will get Obama to send me to investigate. These sorts of things are best investigated in the bars.

Agreed, and we can't possibly find out what people think without buying them a few rounds to loosen their tongues.

To be, cordial, of course, we'll have to partake ourselves.

[Greed and Death]

Well, if you're buying, I need to come along as a uh... technical adviser. Yeah, that's it - a technical adviser.

I am not buying, I will get Obama to send me to investigate. These sorts of things are best investigated in the bars.

Agreed, and we can't possibly find out what people think without buying them a few rounds to loosen their tongues.

To be, cordial, of course, we'll have to partake ourselves.

And the beaches because everyone knows girls in bikini's are the best source for information.

[Galloism]

And the beaches because everyone knows girls in bikini's are the best source for information.

Naturally, but we may have to rent a yacht in order to lure them aboard and um... pump them for information.