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by San Lumen » Sat Oct 31, 2020 6:45 am
Jerzylvania wrote:San Lumen wrote:https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/523605-new-poll-shows-biden-leading-trump-by-6-points-in-north-carolina
Biden leads 52-46 in North Carolina.
1980 election was close until the final days, then it turned into a landslide for the challenger. I don't expect Biden to win 45 states or even close to that, but he's showing some late foot by pulling ahead in polls in the southeast.
Fox News poll:
Florida - Biden 51 Trump 44
MoE = 2.5%
by Cocuryeo » Sat Oct 31, 2020 6:47 am
San Lumen wrote:Jerzylvania wrote:
1980 election was close until the final days, then it turned into a landslide for the challenger. I don't expect Biden to win 45 states or even close to that, but he's showing some late foot by pulling ahead in polls in the southeast.
Fox News poll:
Florida - Biden 51 Trump 44
MoE = 2.5%
It also depends how much of the vote is baked in via mail in ballots.
by Vassenor » Sat Oct 31, 2020 6:52 am
by Gravlen » Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:07 am
Cocuryeo wrote:Being a neophyte in U.S. politics, may I know which site is the best at tracking election probability and votings?
by Cocuryeo » Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:11 am
Gravlen wrote:Cocuryeo wrote:Being a neophyte in U.S. politics, may I know which site is the best at tracking election probability and votings?
https://fivethirtyeight.com/ for polling data,
by Page » Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:12 am
Cocuryeo wrote:Being a neophyte in U.S. politics, may I know which site is the best at tracking election probability and votings?
by Eukaryotic Cells » Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:14 am
by Omniabstracta » Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:15 am
by Cocuryeo » Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:16 am
Omniabstracta wrote:Page wrote:
FiveThirtyEight, although they dropped the ball in 2016, but as far as I can see they've learned their lesson and are being more careful this time around.
538 gave Trump a 30% chance of winning on election night, which was both higher than most others and a pretty respectable chance. Not exactly “dropping the ball.”
by Jerzylvania » Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:29 am
San Lumen wrote:Jerzylvania wrote:
1980 election was close until the final days, then it turned into a landslide for the challenger. I don't expect Biden to win 45 states or even close to that, but he's showing some late foot by pulling ahead in polls in the southeast.
Fox News poll:
Florida - Biden 51 Trump 44
MoE = 2.5%
It also depends how much of the vote is baked in via mail in ballots.
by Jerzylvania » Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:39 am
by Jerzylvania » Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:45 am
by San Lumen » Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:22 am
by Borderlands of Rojava » Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:28 am
Jerzylvania wrote:Cocuryeo wrote:
Vassenor told me a landslide won't happen.
No she didn't.
This isn't 2016, and Biden is not HRC. Plus this is a referendum on the incumbent. An incumbent that has failed to protect his own White House from the pandemic much less the country.
Overall turnout in 2020 is ridiculously high considering the pandemic. Historically high turnout has been the GOP's worst enemy. Hence the voters suppression tactics. A repeat of 2016 is unlikely.
by Thermodolia » Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:39 am
San Lumen wrote:https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/TexasResultsOctober2020.pdf
Biden leads 50-48 in likely final Texas poll
https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp- ... er2020.pdf
Minnesota Pres Biden 54 Trump 43
Minnesota Sen Smith 51 Lewis 42
by Zurkerx » Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:40 am
Gravlen wrote:Cocuryeo wrote:Being a neophyte in U.S. politics, may I know which site is the best at tracking election probability and votings?
https://fivethirtyeight.com/ for polling data,
San Lumen wrote:https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/TexasResultsOctober2020.pdf
Biden leads 50-48 in likely final Texas poll
https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp- ... er2020.pdf
Minnesota Pres Biden 54 Trump 43
Minnesota Sen Smith 51 Lewis 42
by Thermodolia » Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:51 am
Zurkerx wrote:Gravlen wrote:https://fivethirtyeight.com/ for polling data,
New York Times and Associated Press are also good though they're more better suited for calling the winner.San Lumen wrote:https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/TexasResultsOctober2020.pdf
Biden leads 50-48 in likely final Texas poll
https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp- ... er2020.pdf
Minnesota Pres Biden 54 Trump 43
Minnesota Sen Smith 51 Lewis 42
Minnesota was without a doubt going Blue but Texas is close, although most polls show Trump leaning by about 2 points. Either way, early voting in Texas ended yesterday but 9,669,246 (or 107.7% of 2016's total) have voted so far. I think Texas will be in the realm of 11-12.5 million people now, which may benefit Democrats given how many people voted in-person early and the high turnout in blue areas though that may get offset by high turnout in the rural areas.
by San Lumen » Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:53 am
Zurkerx wrote:Gravlen wrote:https://fivethirtyeight.com/ for polling data,
New York Times and Associated Press are also good though they're more better suited for calling the winner.San Lumen wrote:https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/TexasResultsOctober2020.pdf
Biden leads 50-48 in likely final Texas poll
https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp- ... er2020.pdf
Minnesota Pres Biden 54 Trump 43
Minnesota Sen Smith 51 Lewis 42
Minnesota was without a doubt going Blue but Texas is close, although most polls show Trump leaning by about 2 points. Either way, early voting in Texas ended yesterday but 9,669,246 (or 107.7% of 2016's total) have voted so far. I think Texas will be in the realm of 11-12.5 million people now, which may benefit Democrats given how many people voted in-person early and the high turnout in blue areas though that may get offset by high turnout in the rural areas.
by Thermodolia » Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:55 am
San Lumen wrote:Zurkerx wrote:
New York Times and Associated Press are also good though they're more better suited for calling the winner.
Minnesota was without a doubt going Blue but Texas is close, although most polls show Trump leaning by about 2 points. Either way, early voting in Texas ended yesterday but 9,669,246 (or 107.7% of 2016's total) have voted so far. I think Texas will be in the realm of 11-12.5 million people now, which may benefit Democrats given how many people voted in-person early and the high turnout in blue areas though that may get offset by high turnout in the rural areas.
I don't think Minnesota was ever in play.
Regarding Texas. The rural vote just barely overcome the urban in 2018 and the urban vote has only grown. Will this be the year it final overcomes it? We will find out in just a few days.
by San Lumen » Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:57 am
Thermodolia wrote:San Lumen wrote:
I don't think Minnesota was ever in play.
Regarding Texas. The rural vote just barely overcome the urban in 2018 and the urban vote has only grown. Will this be the year it final overcomes it? We will find out in just a few days.
The urban/suburban vote will probably overcome the rural vote in Georgia though not by much. Though I bet you in four years Georgia will probably swing back to red and then back to blue etc.
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