2020 US General Election Thread X: For Those About to Vote

[Cocuryeo]

Being a neophyte in U.S. politics, may I know which site is the best at tracking election probability and votings?

[San Lumen]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/523605-new-poll-shows-biden-leading-trump-by-6-points-in-north-carolina

Biden leads 52-46 in North Carolina.

1980 election was close until the final days, then it turned into a landslide for the challenger. I don't expect Biden to win 45 states or even close to that, but he's showing some late foot by pulling ahead in polls in the southeast.

Fox News poll:
Florida - Biden 51 Trump 44
MoE = 2.5%

It also depends how much of the vote is baked in via mail in ballots.

[Cocuryeo]

1980 election was close until the final days, then it turned into a landslide for the challenger. I don't expect Biden to win 45 states or even close to that, but he's showing some late foot by pulling ahead in polls in the southeast.

Fox News poll:
Florida - Biden 51 Trump 44
MoE = 2.5%

It also depends how much of the vote is baked in via mail in ballots.

Vassenor told me a landslide won't happen.

[San Lumen]

It also depends how much of the vote is baked in via mail in ballots.

Vassenor told me a landslide won't happen.

On what basis?

[Vassenor]

It also depends how much of the vote is baked in via mail in ballots.

Vassenor told me a landslide won't happen.

No, I just asked you where you got your ideas that Trump had a landslide in 2016 from.

[Cocuryeo]

Vassenor told me a landslide won't happen.

No, I just asked you where you got your ideas that Trump had a landslide in 2016 from.

Oh, 2016. I meant 2020.

[Gravlen]

Being a neophyte in U.S. politics, may I know which site is the best at tracking election probability and votings?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/ for polling data,

[Cocuryeo]

Being a neophyte in U.S. politics, may I know which site is the best at tracking election probability and votings?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/ for polling data,

Thanks.

[Page]

Being a neophyte in U.S. politics, may I know which site is the best at tracking election probability and votings?

FiveThirtyEight, although they dropped the ball in 2016, but as far as I can see they've learned their lesson and are being more careful this time around.

[Cocuryeo]

Being a neophyte in U.S. politics, may I know which site is the best at tracking election probability and votings?

FiveThirtyEight, although they dropped the ball in 2016, but as far as I can see they've learned their lesson and are being more careful this time around.

I think 2016 was one of those rare exceptions. I mean, Trump had only 10% chance of winning.

[Eukaryotic Cells]

Being a neophyte in U.S. politics, may I know which site is the best at tracking election probability and votings?

FiveThirtyEight, although they dropped the ball in 2016, but as far as I can see they've learned their lesson and are being more careful this time around.

To be fair to them, they gave Trump the best chance out of the major models (roughly 30% IIRC).

[Omniabstracta]

Being a neophyte in U.S. politics, may I know which site is the best at tracking election probability and votings?

FiveThirtyEight, although they dropped the ball in 2016, but as far as I can see they've learned their lesson and are being more careful this time around.

538 gave Trump a 30% chance of winning on election night, which was both higher than most others and a pretty respectable chance. Not exactly “dropping the ball.”

[Cocuryeo]

FiveThirtyEight, although they dropped the ball in 2016, but as far as I can see they've learned their lesson and are being more careful this time around.

538 gave Trump a 30% chance of winning on election night, which was both higher than most others and a pretty respectable chance. Not exactly “dropping the ball.”

Oh, was it New York TImes that gave Trump 10% chance of winning?

[Jerzylvania]

1980 election was close until the final days, then it turned into a landslide for the challenger. I don't expect Biden to win 45 states or even close to that, but he's showing some late foot by pulling ahead in polls in the southeast.

Fox News poll:
Florida - Biden 51 Trump 44
MoE = 2.5%

It also depends how much of the vote is baked in via mail in ballots.

I don't think this poll's final tally discriminated between mail-in, early vote or later vote.
Also Biden's favorable/unfavorable was 57/42.

[San Lumen]

It also depends how much of the vote is baked in via mail in ballots.

I don't think this poll's final tally discriminated between mail-in, early vote or later vote.
Also Biden's favorable/unfavorable was 57/42.

Well thats good then.

[Jerzylvania]

I don't think this poll's final tally discriminated between mail-in, early vote or later vote.
Also Biden's favorable/unfavorable was 57/42.

Well thats good then.

Overall the totality of data does favor Biden up and down the board.

[Jerzylvania]

It also depends how much of the vote is baked in via mail in ballots.

Vassenor told me a landslide won't happen.

No she didn't.

This isn't 2016, and Biden is not HRC. Plus this is a referendum on the incumbent. An incumbent that has failed to protect his own White House from the pandemic much less the country.
Overall turnout in 2020 is ridiculously high considering the pandemic. Historically high turnout has been the GOP's worst enemy. Hence the voters suppression tactics. A repeat of 2016 is unlikely.

[San Lumen]

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp- ... er2020.pdf

Biden leads 50-48 in likely final Texas poll

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp- ... er2020.pdf

Minnesota Pres Biden 54 Trump 43

Minnesota Sen Smith 51 Lewis 42

[Borderlands of Rojava]

Vassenor told me a landslide won't happen.

No she didn't.

This isn't 2016, and Biden is not HRC. Plus this is a referendum on the incumbent. An incumbent that has failed to protect his own White House from the pandemic much less the country.
Overall turnout in 2020 is ridiculously high considering the pandemic. Historically high turnout has been the GOP's worst enemy. Hence the voters suppression tactics. A repeat of 2016 is unlikely.

Trump and his people don't understand that by him doing all this, if he wins it'll just look like he rigged the election (and he has and if he wins i wouldn't be surprised if it was cause he rigged it). It's better to lose fairly than to win and look like you stole it. But when did Trump even think about the future ?

[Thermodolia]

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/TexasResultsOctober2020.pdf

Biden leads 50-48 in likely final Texas poll

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp- ... er2020.pdf

Minnesota Pres Biden 54 Trump 43

Minnesota Sen Smith 51 Lewis 42

538 and insider elections have changed Georgia’s prediction status from toss up to lean democrat and tilt democrat respectively.

That’s a big change from 2016. I think Biden will win Georgia but only by 3% or less

[Zurkerx]

Being a neophyte in U.S. politics, may I know which site is the best at tracking election probability and votings?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/ for polling data,

New York Times and Associated Press are also good though they're more better suited for calling the winner.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/TexasResultsOctober2020.pdf

Biden leads 50-48 in likely final Texas poll

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp- ... er2020.pdf

Minnesota Pres Biden 54 Trump 43

Minnesota Sen Smith 51 Lewis 42

Minnesota was without a doubt going Blue but Texas is close, although most polls show Trump leaning by about 2 points. Either way, early voting in Texas ended yesterday but 9,669,246 (or 107.7% of 2016's total) have voted so far. I think Texas will be in the realm of 11-12.5 million people now, which may benefit Democrats given how many people voted in-person early and the high turnout in blue areas though that may get offset by high turnout in the rural areas.

[Thermodolia]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/ for polling data,

New York Times and Associated Press are also good though they're more better suited for calling the winner.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/TexasResultsOctober2020.pdf

Biden leads 50-48 in likely final Texas poll

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp- ... er2020.pdf

Minnesota Pres Biden 54 Trump 43

Minnesota Sen Smith 51 Lewis 42

Minnesota was without a doubt going Blue but Texas is close, although most polls show Trump leaning by about 2 points. Either way, early voting in Texas ended yesterday but 9,669,246 (or 107.7% of 2016's total) have voted so far. I think Texas will be in the realm of 11-12.5 million people now, which may benefit Democrats given how many people voted in-person early and the high turnout in blue areas though that may get offset by high turnout in the rural areas.

I think Texas will remain red but it will be by a much much small margin than in 2016. I’m predicting around less than 5% for Texas.

Georgia is going to go blue. There’s no doubt. The republicans have recently ramped up efforts to attempt to keep the state but it’s too little too late. Trump is coming in Sunday to whip up the vote while Obama is coming Monday and Biden came either today or yesterday.

If the democrats take Georgia its days as a ruby red state are over. Georgia is now a purple battleground state. And I’m not like it because we are getting swamped with ads

[San Lumen]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/ for polling data,

New York Times and Associated Press are also good though they're more better suited for calling the winner.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/TexasResultsOctober2020.pdf

Biden leads 50-48 in likely final Texas poll

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp- ... er2020.pdf

Minnesota Pres Biden 54 Trump 43

Minnesota Sen Smith 51 Lewis 42

Minnesota was without a doubt going Blue but Texas is close, although most polls show Trump leaning by about 2 points. Either way, early voting in Texas ended yesterday but 9,669,246 (or 107.7% of 2016's total) have voted so far. I think Texas will be in the realm of 11-12.5 million people now, which may benefit Democrats given how many people voted in-person early and the high turnout in blue areas though that may get offset by high turnout in the rural areas.

I don't think Minnesota was ever in play.

Regarding Texas. The rural vote just barely overcome the urban in 2018 and the urban vote has only grown. Will this be the year it final overcomes it? We will find out in just a few days.

[Thermodolia]

New York Times and Associated Press are also good though they're more better suited for calling the winner.



Minnesota was without a doubt going Blue but Texas is close, although most polls show Trump leaning by about 2 points. Either way, early voting in Texas ended yesterday but 9,669,246 (or 107.7% of 2016's total) have voted so far. I think Texas will be in the realm of 11-12.5 million people now, which may benefit Democrats given how many people voted in-person early and the high turnout in blue areas though that may get offset by high turnout in the rural areas.

I don't think Minnesota was ever in play.

Regarding Texas. The rural vote just barely overcome the urban in 2018 and the urban vote has only grown. Will this be the year it final overcomes it? We will find out in just a few days.

The urban/suburban vote will probably overcome the rural vote in Georgia though not by much. Though I bet you in four years Georgia will probably swing back to red and then back to blue etc.

[San Lumen]

I don't think Minnesota was ever in play.

Regarding Texas. The rural vote just barely overcome the urban in 2018 and the urban vote has only grown. Will this be the year it final overcomes it? We will find out in just a few days.

The urban/suburban vote will probably overcome the rural vote in Georgia though not by much. Though I bet you in four years Georgia will probably swing back to red and then back to blue etc.

with the growth rate in the Atlanta metro area its only a matter of time before it overcomes the rest of the state like what happened with Northern Virginia a few years ago.