2020 US General Election Thread X: For Those About to Vote

[San Lumen]

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk ... pdftxt.pdf

New Pennsylvania poll has Biden up 49/42.

[Thermodolia]

Everyone shut up and look at 538's new interactive with me.

Holy Shit, it's beautiful! Interesting too, me just clicking on PA shows how important it is for both candidates:

If Trump wins, he has a 73% of winning the election to Biden's 26%. But if Biden wins, Trump's chances drop significantly down to 3% to Biden's 97%.

North Carolina is an interesting one: if Trump wins, he has a 35% chance to win the election. But if he loses the State, his chances drop to 1%.

Florida is even huger for Trump: if he wins the State, he has a 39% chance of winning to Biden's 59% chance. However, if Biden wins, Trump's chances decrease to less than one percent; it's the same for Georgia too.

It just shows you how important these States are to Trump, and how vulnerable he is should he lose.

Georgia will probably go to Biden. I know this isn’t data but I’ve seen a shit ton more Biden signs in yards

[Valrifell]

Holy Shit, it's beautiful! Interesting too, me just clicking on PA shows how important it is for both candidates:

If Trump wins, he has a 73% of winning the election to Biden's 26%. But if Biden wins, Trump's chances drop significantly down to 3% to Biden's 97%.

North Carolina is an interesting one: if Trump wins, he has a 35% chance to win the election. But if he loses the State, his chances drop to 1%.

Florida is even huger for Trump: if he wins the State, he has a 39% chance of winning to Biden's 59% chance. However, if Biden wins, Trump's chances decrease to less than one percent; it's the same for Georgia too.

It just shows you how important these States are to Trump, and how vulnerable he is should he lose.

Georgia will probably go to Biden. I know this isn’t data but I’ve seen a shit ton more Biden signs in yards

Well, it's certainly within grasp at least. A Quinnipiac Poll recently put Biden up 7 in Georgia, I'm not sure if I would be that confident, but it's definitely in toss-up territory.

[San Lumen]

Holy Shit, it's beautiful! Interesting too, me just clicking on PA shows how important it is for both candidates:

If Trump wins, he has a 73% of winning the election to Biden's 26%. But if Biden wins, Trump's chances drop significantly down to 3% to Biden's 97%.

North Carolina is an interesting one: if Trump wins, he has a 35% chance to win the election. But if he loses the State, his chances drop to 1%.

Florida is even huger for Trump: if he wins the State, he has a 39% chance of winning to Biden's 59% chance. However, if Biden wins, Trump's chances decrease to less than one percent; it's the same for Georgia too.

It just shows you how important these States are to Trump, and how vulnerable he is should he lose.

Georgia will probably go to Biden. I know this isn’t data but I’ve seen a shit ton more Biden signs in yards

I’ve read lawn signs are not indicative of who wins just like early vote doesn’t predict winners.

[Thermodolia]

Georgia will probably go to Biden. I know this isn’t data but I’ve seen a shit ton more Biden signs in yards

I’ve read lawn signs are not indicative of who wins just like early vote doesn’t predict winners.

Hence why I’ve added that caveat

[Thermodolia]

Georgia will probably go to Biden. I know this isn’t data but I’ve seen a shit ton more Biden signs in yards

Well, it's certainly within grasp at least. A Quinnipiac Poll recently put Biden up 7 in Georgia, I'm not sure if I would be that confident, but it's definitely in toss-up territory.

The main reason why I think it will is because the state GOP has shat the bed in regards to campaigning and Biden has been turning out very patriotic ads. Just about every Biden ad is all about rah rah america!!

Also the national gop has stepped in and is putting millions of door tags on houses in an effort to keep georgia in the red.

[San Lumen]

Well, it's certainly within grasp at least. A Quinnipiac Poll recently put Biden up 7 in Georgia, I'm not sure if I would be that confident, but it's definitely in toss-up territory.

The main reason why I think it will is because the state GOP has shat the bed in regards to campaigning and Biden has been turning out very patriotic ads. Just about every Biden ad is all about rah rah america!!

Also the national gop has stepped in and is putting millions of door tags on houses in an effort to keep georgia in the red.

They are definitely scared. I’ve also heard reports there is a chance the state House of Representatives could flip.

[Valrifell]

Despite Biden's lead being stable for months, y'all got me nervous about PA. Thanks for the anxiety, nerds.

[San Lumen]

Despite Biden's lead being stable for months, y'all got me nervous about PA. Thanks for the anxiety, nerds.

Look at the averages not individual polls.

[Valrifell]

Despite Biden's lead being stable for months, y'all got me nervous about PA. Thanks for the anxiety, nerds.

Look at the averages not individual polls.

I'm not stupid, you know.

The averages have been consistent, I'm aware, but have tightened a little bit. It's the talk about PA being a key state, really.

[San Lumen]

Look at the averages not individual polls.

I'm not stupid, you know.

The averages have been consistent, I'm aware, but have tightened a little bit. It's the talk about PA being a key state, really.

I have a hard time seeing Biden lose it.

[Zurkerx]

Okay, I am please to tell for everyone's enjoyment (and horror) in this thread that I and others have made a basic 2020 Election Model to try to predict the winner of the 2020 Election.

So, I am pleased to announce the Model: NationStates' Worst Nightmare: Totally Inaccurate Predictions

Before I explain more, I do want to give credit to all those that helped, even if it was small: The Cosmic Mainframe, Nakena, The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp, Thermodolia, Major-Tom, Idzequitch, United States of Devonta, & Valrifell.

So, the Model. Given we are amateurs, I want to make clear that we don't have the fancy algorithm (COVID-19, Supreme Court, Economy, etc.) like 538 has and thus, this is a simplistic model for entertaining purposes: it shouldn't be fully seen as a serious projection given the lack of tools we have to make such a Model. Everyone that contributed may not agree with all the outcomes in each State and thus, they are more than welcome to published their own 270 Maps to State what their outcome will be. That said, we did use numbers from 538 (more on that in a bit) so I wish to cite them as a source for this valuable information. We relied on numbers from ElectProject to get us an estimated Voting-Elidable Population (VEP). We'll also be adjusting these numbers until Election Day which stops on the third.

Now, you're wondering "Zurk, how does it all work?" Well, for starters, we took polls that were on 538's site and inputted the data into each respective State, giving us an average of polls. But not just any polls: we decided to use polls that were only B/C Rated or Higher to ensure that the Model would have polling that more accurately reflects the outcome. For instance, Alabama's numbers are currently these based on polling: Trump leads Biden 54.86% to 39.00%. That leaves 6.14% undecided/third parties. Given this is an important election, we then take 40% each of that undecided number and assigned to Trump and Biden. Now it shows Trump leading 57.31% to 41.46%, leaving us with 1.23% third parties.

But that's not the final result. That's where 538's numbers come in, which we routinely have to update given they change. Currently, 538 has Trump winning Alabama 59.10% to Biden's 40.10%. So, we take 50% (or average) of both numbers to give us the final results: Trump will win Alabama with 58.21% to Biden's 40.78%. So, our numbers are respectfully between 538's and our original adjustment. Seems easy enough to understand, I hope.

We also have some key Senate races too, including South Carolina, Kentucky, Kansas, Georgia, and Colorado- calculated the same way. As it stands, Biden is projected to win the Presidency with at least 330 Electoral Votes based on the Model; the Senate is looking to be at least 51-49. Thus, so far, Democrats are projected to win overall this election cycle. However, as I've stated, we'll continually continue adjusting the numbers; inputting new polls and updating 538's projected vote share until November 3rd, where we will officially declare, based on the Model, on how the election will go. Based on the high turnout for early voting thus far (it's at 39.9 million right now), we are projecting 148,227,862 people will vote this upcoming election, which is about 12 million more people than in 2016.

At the conclusion of the Election, we will then compare the numbers and see how off we were. So yeah, that simple and that's it. Oh, I would also like to do a fun but friendly competition where we create our own final 270 maps and see how accurate we are with who wins what States. As always, we are open to input and ideas to improve this Model, and we hope you enjoy it!

[Valrifell]

Full disclosure: I did not help at all, and feel bad now.

[Greater Miami Shores]

Look at the averages not individual polls.

I'm not stupid, you know.

The averages have been consistent, I'm aware, but have tightened a little bit. It's the talk about PA being a key state, really.

Many Biden, Democrat supporters on NS to whatever extent, call me Politically Stupid, directly and indirectly, lol

GMS.

[Zurkerx]

Full disclosure: I did not help at all, and feel bad now.

You didn't? Either way, take some credit

Oh, also, new poll out of Monmouth (A+ Rated) for Iowa: Biden leads Trump in a high turnout scenario, 50% to 47%. Interestingly enough, in a lower turnout scenario, Biden leads 51% to 46% (more on that in second).

In the Senate Race, Greenfield leads Ernst in a high turnout scenario, 49% to 47%. In a lower turnout scenario, Greenfield lead widens to 51% with Ernst at 45%.

The reason why for the lower scenario showing Biden with a bigger lead? Republicans. They're assuming that if Republicans don't turnout in big numbers on election day (that seems unlikely) then Democrats, which lead big in early voting, will win.

Of course, we need to see a few more high-rated polls before making an conclusions but if they show Biden leading in Iowa slimly, that could be bad news for Trump. On the other hand, if it's a tie to Trump slightly leading, Trump will win, albeit by a slim margin.

[San Lumen]

Full disclosure: I did not help at all, and feel bad now.

You didn't? Either way, take some credit

Oh, also, new poll out of Monmouth (A+ Rated) for Iowa: Biden leads Trump in a high turnout scenario, 50% to 47%. Interestingly enough, in a lower turnout scenario, Biden leads 51% to 46% (more on that in second).

In the Senate Race, Greenfield leads Ernst in a high turnout scenario, 49% to 47%. In a lower turnout scenario, Greenfield lead widens to 51% with Ernst at 45%.

The reason why for the lower scenario showing Biden with a bigger lead? Republicans. They're assuming that if Republicans don't turnout in big numbers on election day (that seems unlikely) then Democrats, which lead big in early voting, will win.

Of course, we need to see a few more high-rated polls before making an conclusions but if they show Biden leading in Iowa slimly, that could be bad news for Trump. On the other hand, if it's a tie to Trump slightly leading, Trump will win, albeit by a slim margin.

If Ernst loses Biden likely wins Iowa.

[West Leas Oros 2]

I'm not stupid, you know.

The averages have been consistent, I'm aware, but have tightened a little bit. It's the talk about PA being a key state, really.

Many Biden, Democrat supporters on NS to whatever extent, call me Politically Stupid, directly and indirectly, lol

GMS.

Hey at least they have a reason to oppose you, you're literally supporting their opponent.

The rest of us aren't so lucky.

[Greater Miami Shores]

GMS: Awesome, a few excerpts, discuss?
Trump Confirms More Federal Judges in First Term than Any President in 40 Years

at the close of his first term, he will have confirmed more judges to the federal judiciary in one term than any recent U.S. president.

As of October 5, according to the Heritage Foundation, Trump has confirmed 218 judges to Article III courts — that is, the “Supreme Court of the United States, the U.S. courts of appeals, the U.S. district courts and the U.S. Court of International Trade.”

On October 26, that number will rise to 219 with the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court.

Trump has appointed an unusually large number of appellate judges. These are among the most powerful judges in the system, and they form the primary pool of candidates for appointment to the Supreme Court.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020 ... al-judges/

[San Lumen]

GMS: Awesome, a few excerpts, discuss?
Trump Confirms More Federal Judges in First Term than Any President in 40 Years

at the close of his first term, he will have confirmed more judges to the federal judiciary in one term than any recent U.S. president.

As of October 5, according to the Heritage Foundation, Trump has confirmed 218 judges to Article III courts — that is, the “Supreme Court of the United States, the U.S. courts of appeals, the U.S. district courts and the U.S. Court of International Trade.”

On October 26, that number will rise to 219 with the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court.

Trump has appointed an unusually large number of appellate judges. These are among the most powerful judges in the system, and they form the primary pool of candidates for appointment to the Supreme Court.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020 ... al-judges/

and many of those were Obama';s to fill. McConnell refused to allow a vote on many of his nominees.

[Greater Miami Shores]

GMS: Awesome, a few excerpts, discuss?
Trump Confirms More Federal Judges in First Term than Any President in 40 Years

at the close of his first term, he will have confirmed more judges to the federal judiciary in one term than any recent U.S. president.

As of October 5, according to the Heritage Foundation, Trump has confirmed 218 judges to Article III courts — that is, the “Supreme Court of the United States, the U.S. courts of appeals, the U.S. district courts and the U.S. Court of International Trade.”

On October 26, that number will rise to 219 with the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court.

Trump has appointed an unusually large number of appellate judges. These are among the most powerful judges in the system, and they form the primary pool of candidates for appointment to the Supreme Court.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020 ... al-judges/

and many of those were Obama';s to fill. McConnell refused to allow a vote on many of his nominees.

Yet, President Trump did.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

At the conclusion of the Election, we will then compare the numbers and see how off we were. So yeah, that simple and that's it. Oh, I would also like to do a fun but friendly competition where we create our own final 270 maps and see how accurate we are with who wins what States. As always, we are open to input and ideas to improve this Model, and we hope you enjoy it!

I'm very interested in that. I am quite sure about every state, and expect to win. Is the prize really a lifetime appointment to Mod? That's incredible! It would be good if you could repost that. Very excited, eyeballs a bit jerky so I want to be sure!

[San Lumen]

and many of those were Obama';s to fill. McConnell refused to allow a vote on many of his nominees.

Yet, President Trump did.

I am aware. Obama had the right to fill those seats and McConnell refused just like he stole a Supreme Court seat through a made up rule and he refused to hold the Senate to the same standard this year. He is a hypocrite.

[Kowani]

Okay, I am please to tell for everyone's enjoyment (and horror) in this thread that I and others have made a basic 2020 Election Model to try to predict the winner of the 2020 Election.

So, I am pleased to announce the Model: NationStates' Worst Nightmare: Totally Inaccurate Predictions

Before I explain more, I do want to give credit to all those that helped, even if it was small: The Cosmic Mainframe, Nakena, The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp, Thermodolia, Major-Tom, Idzequitch, United States of Devonta, & Valrifell.

So, the Model. Given we are amateurs, I want to make clear that we don't have the fancy algorithm (COVID-19, Supreme Court, Economy, etc.) like 538 has and thus, this is a simplistic model for entertaining purposes: it shouldn't be fully seen as a serious projection given the lack of tools we have to make such a Model. Everyone that contributed may not agree with all the outcomes in each State and thus, they are more than welcome to published their own 270 Maps to State what their outcome will be. That said, we did use numbers from 538 (more on that in a bit) so I wish to cite them as a source for this valuable information. We relied on numbers from ElectProject to get us an estimated Voting-Elidable Population (VEP). We'll also be adjusting these numbers until Election Day which stops on the third.

Now, you're wondering "Zurk, how does it all work?" Well, for starters, we took polls that were on 538's site and inputted the data into each respective State, giving us an average of polls. But not just any polls: we decided to use polls that were only B/C Rated or Higher to ensure that the Model would have polling that more accurately reflects the outcome. For instance, Alabama's numbers are currently these based on polling: Trump leads Biden 54.86% to 39.00%. That leaves 6.14% undecided/third parties. Given this is an important election, we then take 40% each of that undecided number and assigned to Trump and Biden. Now it shows Trump leading 57.31% to 41.46%, leaving us with 1.23% third parties.

But that's not the final result. That's where 538's numbers come in, which we routinely have to update given they change. Currently, 538 has Trump winning Alabama 59.10% to Biden's 40.10%. So, we take 50% (or average) of both numbers to give us the final results: Trump will win Alabama with 58.21% to Biden's 40.78%. So, our numbers are respectfully between 538's and our original adjustment. Seems easy enough to understand, I hope.

We also have some key Senate races too, including South Carolina, Kentucky, Kansas, Georgia, and Colorado- calculated the same way. As it stands, Biden is projected to win the Presidency with at least 330 Electoral Votes based on the Model; the Senate is looking to be at least 51-49. Thus, so far, Democrats are projected to win overall this election cycle. However, as I've stated, we'll continually continue adjusting the numbers; inputting new polls and updating 538's projected vote share until November 3rd, where we will officially declare, based on the Model, on how the election will go. Based on the high turnout for early voting thus far (it's at 39.9 million right now), we are projecting 148,227,862 people will vote this upcoming election, which is about 12 million more people than in 2016.

At the conclusion of the Election, we will then compare the numbers and see how off we were. So yeah, that simple and that's it. Oh, I would also like to do a fun but friendly competition where we create our own final 270 maps and see how accurate we are with who wins what States. As always, we are open to input and ideas to improve this Model, and we hope you enjoy it!

Damn worker bees...

[Greater Miami Shores]

At the conclusion of the Election, we will then compare the numbers and see how off we were. So yeah, that simple and that's it. Oh, I would also like to do a fun but friendly competition where we create our own final 270 maps and see how accurate we are with who wins what States. As always, we are open to input and ideas to improve this Model, and we hope you enjoy it!

I'm very interested in that. I am quite sure about every state, and expect to win. Is the prize really a lifetime appointment to Mod? That's incredible! It would be good if you could repost that. Very excited, eyeballs a bit jerky so I want to be sure!

I think you would make an excellent Fair and Balanced Mod. You have my vote.

GMS.

[The Huskar Social Union]

Okay, I am please to tell for everyone's enjoyment (and horror) in this thread that I and others have made a basic 2020 Election Model to try to predict the winner of the 2020 Election.

So, I am pleased to announce the Model: NationStates' Worst Nightmare: Totally Inaccurate Predictions

Before I explain more, I do want to give credit to all those that helped, even if it was small: The Cosmic Mainframe, Nakena, The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp, Thermodolia, Major-Tom, Idzequitch, United States of Devonta, & Valrifell.

So, the Model. Given we are amateurs, I want to make clear that we don't have the fancy algorithm (COVID-19, Supreme Court, Economy, etc.) like 538 has and thus, this is a simplistic model for entertaining purposes: it shouldn't be fully seen as a serious projection given the lack of tools we have to make such a Model. Everyone that contributed may not agree with all the outcomes in each State and thus, they are more than welcome to published their own 270 Maps to State what their outcome will be. That said, we did use numbers from 538 (more on that in a bit) so I wish to cite them as a source for this valuable information. We relied on numbers from ElectProject to get us an estimated Voting-Elidable Population (VEP). We'll also be adjusting these numbers until Election Day which stops on the third.

Now, you're wondering "Zurk, how does it all work?" Well, for starters, we took polls that were on 538's site and inputted the data into each respective State, giving us an average of polls. But not just any polls: we decided to use polls that were only B/C Rated or Higher to ensure that the Model would have polling that more accurately reflects the outcome. For instance, Alabama's numbers are currently these based on polling: Trump leads Biden 54.86% to 39.00%. That leaves 6.14% undecided/third parties. Given this is an important election, we then take 40% each of that undecided number and assigned to Trump and Biden. Now it shows Trump leading 57.31% to 41.46%, leaving us with 1.23% third parties.

But that's not the final result. That's where 538's numbers come in, which we routinely have to update given they change. Currently, 538 has Trump winning Alabama 59.10% to Biden's 40.10%. So, we take 50% (or average) of both numbers to give us the final results: Trump will win Alabama with 58.21% to Biden's 40.78%. So, our numbers are respectfully between 538's and our original adjustment. Seems easy enough to understand, I hope.

We also have some key Senate races too, including South Carolina, Kentucky, Kansas, Georgia, and Colorado- calculated the same way. As it stands, Biden is projected to win the Presidency with at least 330 Electoral Votes based on the Model; the Senate is looking to be at least 51-49. Thus, so far, Democrats are projected to win overall this election cycle. However, as I've stated, we'll continually continue adjusting the numbers; inputting new polls and updating 538's projected vote share until November 3rd, where we will officially declare, based on the Model, on how the election will go. Based on the high turnout for early voting thus far (it's at 39.9 million right now), we are projecting 148,227,862 people will vote this upcoming election, which is about 12 million more people than in 2016.

At the conclusion of the Election, we will then compare the numbers and see how off we were. So yeah, that simple and that's it. Oh, I would also like to do a fun but friendly competition where we create our own final 270 maps and see how accurate we are with who wins what States. As always, we are open to input and ideas to improve this Model, and we hope you enjoy it!

me trying to read any spreadsheets

Its pretty good though, well done.