Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict: The Great Betrayal

[Jolthig]

Turkey, and its Neo-Ottomanism. No surprise it wants to expand its influence. Especially their own historically long feud with Armenia.

[Heloin]

Turkey wants to make everything worse.

No, it doesn't. Turkey is just paying lip service to the "we support Azerbaijan" narrative that's universally popular in Turkey. Watch and see as Turkey does nothing.

I know Turkey will probably do nothing, it always does nothing in regard to this conflict. Turkey however does make everything worse in this conflict since it's verbal support emboldens Azerbaijan. Wants to was a wrong choice of words by my part but don't pretend that Turkey doing what it's doing isn't making the situation much worse then it needs to be.

[Vistulange]

Turkey, and its Neo-Ottomanism. No surprise it wants to expand its influence. Especially their own historically long feud with Armenia.

Define "neo-Ottomanism", then come back to me.

No, it doesn't. Turkey is just paying lip service to the "we support Azerbaijan" narrative that's universally popular in Turkey. Watch and see as Turkey does nothing.

I know Turkey will probably do nothing, it always does nothing in regard to this conflict. Turkey however does make everything worse in this conflict since it's verbal support emboldens Azerbaijan. Wants to was a wrong choice of words by my part but don't pretend that Turkey doing what it's doing isn't making the situation much worse then it needs to be.

Then choose your words better, Heloin. I cannot know what you mean if you use words that mean something else. And, really, I hardly think Aliyev is emboldened by Erdoğan's support: see how that well went for Mursi and the Syrian rebels, and you can see the results. I'm fairly certain that the Azerbaijani ruling elites are as intelligent as you or I, and that they can draw similar conclusions.

[Jolthig]

Turkey, and its Neo-Ottomanism. No surprise it wants to expand its influence. Especially their own historically long feud with Armenia.

Define "neo-Ottomanism", then come back to me.

Explain to me my lack of knowledge of this subject, given your own Turkish background.

[Heloin]

I know Turkey will probably do nothing, it always does nothing in regard to this conflict. Turkey however does make everything worse in this conflict since it's verbal support emboldens Azerbaijan. Wants to was a wrong choice of words by my part but don't pretend that Turkey doing what it's doing isn't making the situation much worse then it needs to be.

Then choose your words better, Heloin. I cannot know what you mean if you use words that mean something else.

Turkey wants to make everything worse. Erdoğan props up and ally with oil and hopes to get some extra votes. It doesn't want to fight.

And, really, I hardly think Aliyev is emboldened by Erdoğan's support: see how that well went for Mursi and the Syrian rebels, and you can see the results. I'm fairly certain that the Azerbaijani ruling elites are as intelligent as you or I, and that they can draw similar conclusions.

It that were true then the war in the region would have ended long ago. This is a game of bluffs, Aliyev knows Turkey isn't likely to send soldiers over the frontier but the goal isn't to bluff each other, it's to make Armenia think the threat is real this time. Armenia knows it's outmatched and has to trust that this is another bluff by the two. One day this is going to screw up and Turkey will have sent Azerbaijan and Armenia right into open war. If you seriously think Turkey isn't emboldening Aliyev into making this worse then I don't know what to say to you.

[Aureumterra III]

Armenia and Azerbaijan going to war every few years

In other news, water is wet

[The Pearl River]

Armenia is in trouble. They have fewer soldiers, vehicles, and aircraft. So far as I can tell they only have one advantage - 4 modern su30 fighters. If pilots were well trained they can maintain air parody at least.

russia

[SD_Film Artists]

''aw sh*t, here we go again.''

Just what I was thinking. It's only been a few months since I started a thread on this.

[Vistulange]

Define "neo-Ottomanism", then come back to me.

Explain to me my lack of knowledge of this subject, given your own Turkish background.

Right.

First and foremost, the phrase "neo-Ottomanism", or its Turkish equivalent, has never been once uttered by any Turkish policy-maker, to my knowledge. The general phrase the AKP and Erdoğan used, and continues to use, refers to Turkish people as "descendants of the Ottomans" ("Osmanlı torunu") which naturally recalls the Ottoman past of Turkey. However, once more, this is nowhere near the imperialism implied by the phrase "neo-Ottoman". Therefore, the very premise itself is flawed in describing Turkey in that it never was a thing in Turkey. It's a term coined by foreigners looking into Turkey, and I daresay looking into Turkey without particularly considering what the Ottoman Empire means for the people who use such rhetoric. It's a very common thing to do, and all of us do it, but I would prefer to hold academia and media to a higher standard of labour, honesty, and integrity than the average Joe on the street.

Despite however the "facts don't care about your feelings" lot might harp on about how facts are immutable, E. H. Carr also has a fantastic quote regarding facts: "A fact is like a sack, it won't stand up till you've put something in it." Facts, by themselves, do not speak at all. So, looking at it from the outside, you lot generally see the Ottoman Empire as a continent-spanning empire that repressed its minorities and committed genocide in its twilight years, which is certainly not false. However, once more, despite whatever rubbish that particular crowd might peddle, how you perceive something is crucial in how you think of it. The mistake I've mentioned above is precisely this: You look at Erdoğan, you see him portray the Ottoman Empire in a favourable light; you also have your own perception of the Ottoman Empire, for good or for ill, and you immediately—and very naturally—assume that Erdoğan (and the overall AKP voter, for that matter) sees the same thing as you do when he looks at the Ottoman Empire. Here's a clue: They don't. They don't see the Ottoman Empire as a realm where minorities are oppressed and genocides are a thing, just as I look at Islam and see a religion founded on tyranny, patriarchy, and so on, you see something very different, yet both can be factually true at the same time.

And there begins the issue: The term "neo-Ottomanism" is derived from what Western observers perceive as the Ottoman Empire, not what the people who are supposedly adherents of that ideology perceive. Therefore, it completely fails to describe the worldview of those people, since it starts from the wrong footing entirely. It's like trying to climb Everest while standing in North America.

[Heloin]

Armenia and Azerbaijan going to war every few years

In other news, water is wet

Generally there's a year or two between the fighting, not less than two months.

[Vistulange]

Then choose your words better, Heloin. I cannot know what you mean if you use words that mean something else.

Turkey wants to make everything worse. Erdoğan props up and ally with oil and hopes to get some extra votes. It doesn't want to fight.

So you're telling me that of all the things Erdoğan could do for "votes" (I've still yet to see a single foreigner tell me how Erdoğan actually translates lip service into votes, but hey, you're not the only one) that making things worse for the country or the region that supplies about 23% of Turkey's natural gas needs is the way he's going? In September, October, practically, in a country that is already in dire economic straits, where much of the country experiences a harsh winter and uses natural gas for heating? Do you actually think Erdoğan is stupid, like a caricaturised Oriental despot might be?

It that were true then the war in the region would have ended long ago. This is a game of bluffs, Aliyev knows Turkey isn't likely to send soldiers over the frontier but the goal isn't to bluff each other, it's to make Armenia think the threat is real this time. Armenia knows it's outmatched and has to trust that this is another bluff by the two. One day this is going to screw up and Turkey will have sent Azerbaijan and Armenia right into open war. If you seriously think Turkey isn't emboldening Aliyev into making this worse then I don't know what to say to you.

Or, or, hot take, maybe the situation isn't about Turkey, or Turkey isn't practically influential in the conflict, hence why the conflict is going on despite Turkish lip service.

If I say I'm behind you all the time and repeatedly watch and do nothing as the neighbourhood bully beats you up, eventually you aren't going to take my word seriously that I have your back, and the neighbourhood bully isn't going to take my word seriously, either.

Seriously, if you're actually trying to lecture a Turk about how ineffectual and non-involved Turkey is regarding Azerbaijan and Armenia, I can't really help you. This is literally the minimal amount of effort Turkey can ever put in. It's literally going to be "we are seriously concerned about the conflict and we stand behind [insert term of endearment] Azerbaijan in this conflict", just like every other million times it's happened before. You lot just like to see Armenia and Azerbaijan together, and immediately lump in Turkey because a) Turkey-bashing is something all of you can join in and have fun and b) nobody knows jack shit about Armenia or Azerbaijan, so you go for the country you think you know, which is Turkey, who is completely irrelevant right now. It's borderline threadjacking to talk about Turkey in this thread for the time being.

[Heloin]

Turkey wants to make everything worse. Erdoğan props up and ally with oil and hopes to get some extra votes. It doesn't want to fight.

So you're telling me that of all the things Erdoğan could do for "votes" (I've still yet to see a single foreigner tell me how Erdoğan actually translates lip service into votes, but hey, you're not the only one) that making things worse for the country or the region that supplies about 23% of Turkey's natural gas needs is the way he's going?

It that were true then the war in the region would have ended long ago. This is a game of bluffs, Aliyev knows Turkey isn't likely to send soldiers over the frontier but the goal isn't to bluff each other, it's to make Armenia think the threat is real this time. Armenia knows it's outmatched and has to trust that this is another bluff by the two. One day this is going to screw up and Turkey will have sent Azerbaijan and Armenia right into open war. If you seriously think Turkey isn't emboldening Aliyev into making this worse then I don't know what to say to you.

Or, or, hot take, maybe the situation isn't about Turkey, or Turkey isn't practically influential in the conflict, hence why the conflict is going on despite Turkish lip service.

If I say I'm behind you all the time and repeatedly watch and do nothing as the neighbourhood bully beats you up, eventually you're not going to take my word seriously that I have your back, and the neighbourhood bully isn't going to take my word seriously, either.

Lip service by Turkey would be condemning Armenia then doing nothing else. Turkey's involvement, aside from joint training exercises, isn't militarily it's diplomatic. You seem to think that means nothing but that support keeps Russia out of the war, keeps foreign powers who prefer Armenia from recognising Artsakh, and with the threat of conflict still in the air keeps Iran from throwing real support behind Armenia. It's a complicated fight and while Turkey is only one of the many players in the conflict, trying to excuse them is just that and excuse. I'm not riding the anti-Turkish bandwagon here, I'm talking about Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Seriously, if you're actually trying to lecture a Turk about how ineffectual and non-involved Turkey is regarding Azerbaijan and Armenia, I can't really help you. This is literally the minimal amount of effort Turkey can ever put in. It's literally going to be "we are seriously concerned about the conflict and we stand behind [insert term of endearment] Azerbaijan in this conflict", just like every other million times it's happened before. You lot just like to see Armenia and Azerbaijan together, and immediately lump in Turkey because a) Turkey-bashing is something all of you can join in and have fun and b) nobody knows jack shit about Armenia or Azerbaijan, so you go for the country you think you know, which is Turkey, who is completely irrelevant right now. It's borderline threadjacking to talk about Turkey in this thread for the time being.

That rant was very useful now was it. I do enjoy being told I know nothing about conflicts I've been to the front lines of.

[Vistulange]

So you're telling me that of all the things Erdoğan could do for "votes" (I've still yet to see a single foreigner tell me how Erdoğan actually translates lip service into votes, but hey, you're not the only one) that making things worse for the country or the region that supplies about 23% of Turkey's natural gas needs is the way he's going?

Or, or, hot take, maybe the situation isn't about Turkey, or Turkey isn't practically influential in the conflict, hence why the conflict is going on despite Turkish lip service.

If I say I'm behind you all the time and repeatedly watch and do nothing as the neighbourhood bully beats you up, eventually you're not going to take my word seriously that I have your back, and the neighbourhood bully isn't going to take my word seriously, either.

Lip service by Turkey would be condemning Armenia then doing nothing else. Turkey's involvement, aside from joint training exercises, isn't militarily it's diplomatic. You seem to think that means nothing but that support keeps Russia out of the war, keeps foreign powers who prefer Armenia from recognising Artsakh, and with the threat of conflict still in the air keeps Iran from throwing real support behind Armenia. It's a complicated fight and while Turkey is only one of the many players in the conflict, trying to excuse them is just that and excuse. I'm not riding the anti-Turkish bandwagon here, I'm talking about Armenia and Azerbaijan.

So you're now telling me that the fear of Turkey is keeping Russia at bay, now? The same Russia that enacted an embargo on Turkish tomatoes and tourism, which promptly got Erdoğan to fold, back in 2014-2015 2015-2017, when the Turkish economy was in a better state? You aren't talking about Armenia and Azerbaijan, and you certainly are riding the anti-Turkish bandwagon that you've set up on this thread, because Turkey is literally a non-factor here.

That rant was very useful now was it. I do enjoy being told I know nothing about conflicts I've been to the front lines of.

I don't recall telling you that you needed to be on the front-lines, I am telling you that you have no idea how this is perceived in Turkey. Consider it a rant if you will, the fact remains that you know practically nothing about what Turkish people, on average, think about the whole deal.

[Insaanistan]

To me, this looks like Armenia hungry to expand once again into Azerbaijan and Turkey acting like it wants to go to war and that it’s protecting it’s Turkic brethren in Azerbaijan. Armenia seems to be the aggressor. I’m curious as to how Iran will respond (if at all), and if Russia will seize this opportunity to engage in its beloved pastime: fricking with the Caucasus for fun.

[Heloin]

Lip service by Turkey would be condemning Armenia then doing nothing else. Turkey's involvement, aside from joint training exercises, isn't militarily it's diplomatic. You seem to think that means nothing but that support keeps Russia out of the war, keeps foreign powers who prefer Armenia from recognising Artsakh, and with the threat of conflict still in the air keeps Iran from throwing real support behind Armenia. It's a complicated fight and while Turkey is only one of the many players in the conflict, trying to excuse them is just that and excuse. I'm not riding the anti-Turkish bandwagon here, I'm talking about Armenia and Azerbaijan.

So you're now telling me that the fear of Turkey is keeping Russia at bay, now? The same Russia that enacted an embargo on Turkish tomatoes and tourism, which promptly got Erdoğan to fold, back in 2014-2015, when the Turkish economy was in a better state? You aren't talking about Armenia and Azerbaijan, and you certainly are riding the anti-Turkish bandwagon that you've set up on this thread, because Turkey is literally a non-factor here.

This isn't hard, you're making this more difficult. Turkey and Russia don't want to fight each other. Russia wants to support Armenia. Turkey supports Azerbaijan then Russia won't support Armenia. Turkey doesn't have to fire a bullet and Russia stays out of the fighting. That's what's been happening for the last thirty years. Turkey is a part of the conflict, a small part and will probably never actually fight but a part none the less. Why does this fact upset you so much? I wish I could get across how exasperated I am right now.

That rant was very useful now was it. I do enjoy being told I know nothing about conflicts I've been to the front lines of.

I don't recall telling you needed to be on the front-lines, I am telling you that you have no idea how this is perceived in Turkey. Consider it a rant if you will, the fact remains that you know practically nothing about what Turkish people, on average, think about the whole deal.

Jeez, it's like I'm in a thread about China. You're not Turkey. Turks aren't Turkey. Turkey is the country and by extension the government. You seem to realise that when I say Armenia or Azerbaijan but not when I say Turkey.

To me, this looks like Armenia hungry to expand once again into Azerbaijan and Turkey acting like it wants to go to war and that it’s protecting it’s Turkic brethren in Azerbaijan. Armenia seems to be the aggressor. I’m curious as to how Iran will respond (if at all), and if Russia will seize this opportunity to engage in its beloved pastime: fricking with the Caucasus for fun.

Azerbaijan probably started it. They did the last dozen or so times. And no Turkey won't go to war over this, neither will Russia.

[The Restored Danelaw]

The thing about this situation is that regardless of context and regardless of who being the "Starter" in this scenario, the Republic of Baku is the aggressor as far as I'm concerned. The fact Turkey backs it in this particular conflict and against this particular enemy only cements this for me. Also friendly reminder that fuck UN and its "recognition" of Astrakh as """rightful""" Territory of the Republic of Baku.

[Vistulange]

So you're now telling me that the fear of Turkey is keeping Russia at bay, now? The same Russia that enacted an embargo on Turkish tomatoes and tourism, which promptly got Erdoğan to fold, back in 2014-2015, when the Turkish economy was in a better state? You aren't talking about Armenia and Azerbaijan, and you certainly are riding the anti-Turkish bandwagon that you've set up on this thread, because Turkey is literally a non-factor here.

This isn't hard, you're making this more difficult. Turkey and Russia don't want to fight each other. Russia wants to support Armenia. Turkey supports Azerbaijan then Russia won't support Armenia. Turkey doesn't have to fire a bullet and Russia stays out of the fighting. That's what's been happening for the last thirty years. Turkey is a part of the conflict, a small part and will probably never actually fight but a part none the less. Why does this fact upset you so much? I wish I could get across how exasperated I am right now.

"Upset" isn't the quite right word, it's "annoyed". Understand this, Heloin: Whenever anything in the immediate region, related in the tiniest of ways to Turkey happens, there's an anti-Turkish circlejerk that occurs, for the very simple reason that Turkey is a perfectly acceptable target to take a dump on, never mind the facts on the ground, how Turkish politics work, and how Turkish political history has been formed. Take a very quick look at the first page of this thread, and understand that you are a part of that circlejerk, and understand that it is annoying that a bunch of foreigners, a massive majority of whom haven't read a single peer-reviewed article on Turkey, or know Turkish, or care about Turkey in particular aside from a knee-jerk response of "sanction Turkey", "Erdogan bad", start spouting stuff about Turkey when the topic isn't Turkey in the first place. You might be left-wing, and I don't really care that you and a lot of other left-wingers are probably a lot closer to me ideologically than the right-wing, because for the purposes of the anti-Turkish bandwagon, you're literally all the same. So yes, I am annoyed that you go into a thread about Armenia and Azerbaijan and bring up Turkey into it, with nonsense and far-fetched assumptions, or just misguided statements—see the whole "neo-Ottomanism" ordeal—and just carry on bashing Turkey because Turkey is an acceptable target.

The thing about this situation is that regardless of context and regardless of who being the "Starter" in this scenario, the Republic of Baku is the aggressor as far as I'm concerned. The fact Turkey backs it in this particular conflict and against this particular enemy only cements this for me.

Case in point. "Turkey bad!"

Jeez, it's like I'm in a thread about China. You're not Turkey. Turks aren't Turkey. Turkey is the country and by extension the government. You seem to realise that when I say Armenia or Azerbaijan but not when I say Turkey.

It's almost as if I can pore through dozens and dozens of studies conducted and published in Turkish about voting behaviours, perceptions, foreign relations, hostility, etc. and you can't. Almost. The world isn't English for your convenience, and we are not equals.

[The Restored Danelaw]

The thing about this situation is that regardless of context and regardless of who being the "Starter" in this scenario, the Republic of Baku is the aggressor as far as I'm concerned. The fact Turkey backs it in this particular conflict and against this particular enemy only cements this for me.

Case in point. "Turkey bad!"

When it's in support of a state that's already attempted to commit genocide against a state that it has already commited genocide on, it isn't a matter of "Turkey bad". It's a matter of "In this particular conflict and against this particular enemy".

[Vistulange]

Case in point. "Turkey bad!"

When it's in support of a state that's already attempted to commit genocide against a state that it has already commited genocide on, it isn't a matter of "Turkey bad". It's a matter of "In this particular conflict and against this particular enemy".

Except, you know, the Ottoman Empire in 1915 is nothing like Turkey in 2020, but I'm sure you know that already.

[The Restored Danelaw]

When it's in support of a state that's already attempted to commit genocide against a state that it has already commited genocide on, it isn't a matter of "Turkey bad". It's a matter of "In this particular conflict and against this particular enemy".

Except, you know, the Ottoman Empire in 1915 is nothing like Turkey in 2020, but I'm sure you know that already.

The Turkish position against Armenia really hasn't changed -I won't say it's gotten worse because they haven't invaded to finish the job yet so there's that- but I'm sure you know that already.

[Vistulange]

Except, you know, the Ottoman Empire in 1915 is nothing like Turkey in 2020, but I'm sure you know that already.

The Turkish position against Armenia really hasn't changed -I won't say it's gotten worse because they haven't invaded to finish the job yet so there's that- but I'm sure you know that already.

The reversal of the phrase on me isn't particularly clever when it's rubbish, Danelaw.

[Saiyan Galactic Empire]

They should annihilate them do they can sell the resources of their planet.


https://youtu.be/OlCFm4JePPA

[The Restored Danelaw]

The Turkish position against Armenia really hasn't changed -I won't say it's gotten worse because they haven't invaded to finish the job yet so there's that- but I'm sure you know that already.

The reversal of the phrase on me isn't particularly clever when it's rubbish, Danelaw.

Make a rubbish point, get a rubbish response.

[Albionist Great Britain]

Giving this some more thought, I’m going to just back away and stay out of it until I’m more informed. I like neither Turkey’s government nor Russia. It’s bad vs worse. Unfortunately Armenia is in the Russian camp and Turkey is supposedly supporting Azerbaijan. I’d like to support Armenia in this case, but that would be in Russia’s interests I think.

[Saiyan Galactic Empire]

For a small fee of saiyan cucums our warrior race will wipe out all of Azerbaijan army