Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict: The Great Betrayal

[Kowani]

For obvious reasons, the Samaritan's Purse does not carry that.

I know, but it’s unfortunate regardless. The relief fund is still doing good, but I think Armenia will need more of something else to win this war.

Oh, absolutely agree.

[Page]

I truly believe the US and Europe could push Turkey to stop doing what they're doing if they were bold. If Turkey was threatened by expulsion from NATO, they would at least stop to think twice about what they want to do.

[Trollzyn the Infinite]

I truly believe the US and Europe could push Turkey to stop doing what they're doing if they were bold. If Turkey was threatened by expulsion from NATO, they would at least stop to think twice about what they want to do.

Unfortunately you can't expel someone from NATO. Be nice if you could.

Western leaders are definitely being too spineless, though. They let Turkey run around and do whatever it wants and just look the way as it creates instability in the region. That, in the long term, is bad for Western interests. You'd think they'd figure that out but nah. So because NATO does nothing, Turkey gets emboldened and gets to push around it's neighbors with impunity like the schoolyard bully they are. And they need to be smacked for it.

[Page]

I truly believe the US and Europe could push Turkey to stop doing what they're doing if they were bold. If Turkey was threatened by expulsion from NATO, they would at least stop to think twice about what they want to do.

Unfortunately you can't expel someone from NATO. Be nice if you could.

Western leaders are definitely being too spineless, though. They let Turkey run around and do whatever it wants and just look the way as it creates instability in the region. That, in the long term, is bad for Western interests. You'd think they'd figure that out but nah. So because NATO does nothing, Turkey gets emboldened and gets to push around it's neighbors with impunity like the schoolyard bully they are. And they need to be smacked for it.

Of course you can. You can literally do anything that doesn't violate the laws of physics. If every other member of NATO agreed that Turkey is no longer in the club, they're out of the club regardless of what any piece of paper says.

[Albionist Great Britain]

I truly believe the US and Europe could push Turkey to stop doing what they're doing if they were bold. If Turkey was threatened by expulsion from NATO, they would at least stop to think twice about what they want to do.

Unfortunately you can't expel someone from NATO. Be nice if you could.

Western leaders are definitely being too spineless, though. They let Turkey run around and do whatever it wants and just look the way as it creates instability in the region. That, in the long term, is bad for Western interests. You'd think they'd figure that out but nah. So because NATO does nothing, Turkey gets emboldened and gets to push around it's neighbors with impunity like the schoolyard bully they are. And they need to be smacked for it.

I’d suggest hitting them with a metaphorical cricket bat with nails in it rather than a simple metaphorical smack.

[Trollzyn the Infinite]

Unfortunately you can't expel someone from NATO. Be nice if you could.

Western leaders are definitely being too spineless, though. They let Turkey run around and do whatever it wants and just look the way as it creates instability in the region. That, in the long term, is bad for Western interests. You'd think they'd figure that out but nah. So because NATO does nothing, Turkey gets emboldened and gets to push around it's neighbors with impunity like the schoolyard bully they are. And they need to be smacked for it.

Of course you can. You can literally do anything that doesn't violate the laws of physics. If every other member of NATO agreed that Turkey is no longer in the club, they're out of the club regardless of what any piece of paper says.

Well, yeah, sure, but as I said: spineless leaders.

Unfortunately you can't expel someone from NATO. Be nice if you could.

Western leaders are definitely being too spineless, though. They let Turkey run around and do whatever it wants and just look the way as it creates instability in the region. That, in the long term, is bad for Western interests. You'd think they'd figure that out but nah. So because NATO does nothing, Turkey gets emboldened and gets to push around it's neighbors with impunity like the schoolyard bully they are. And they need to be smacked for it.

I’d suggest hitting them with a metaphorical cricket bat with nails in it rather than a simple metaphorical smack.

Smacking somebody with a cricket bat starts a fight, which isn't ideal as Turkey is no pushover and attacking them is a bit of an overreaction. A smack is halting; it doesn't start a fight, it knocks some sense into the asshole in charge and makes him stop and reconsider his behavior.

There's more than one way to skin a cat. We can force Turkey to play ball without having to bomb them, which would be rather unnecessary right now.

[Borderlands of Rojava]

I truly believe the US and Europe could push Turkey to stop doing what they're doing if they were bold. If Turkey was threatened by expulsion from NATO, they would at least stop to think twice about what they want to do.

Unfortunately you can't expel someone from NATO. Be nice if you could.

Western leaders are definitely being too spineless, though. They let Turkey run around and do whatever it wants and just look the way as it creates instability in the region. That, in the long term, is bad for Western interests. You'd think they'd figure that out but nah. So because NATO does nothing, Turkey gets emboldened and gets to push around it's neighbors with impunity like the schoolyard bully they are. And they need to be smacked for it.

Reminds me alot of Neville Chamberlain and Hitler. "Oh if we're just nice to him and let him have Czechoslovakia, maybe he'll go away."

He didn't go away.

[Nocturnalis]

Shushi has been captured, according to Aliyev, although Armenia and Artsakh say that fighting is ongoing in the city. Every source I've seen says basically the same thing, though, so I'm not inclined to believe the Azerbaijani government on this (or on much of anything, for that matter). Still, that the fighting has gotten that far northward, especially onto the main road connecting Stepanakert to Armenia proper, does not bode all that well for Artsakh. As dire as this whole situation looks, here's hoping the Armenians can push back.

[New Rogernomics]

Unfortunately you can't expel someone from NATO. Be nice if you could.

Western leaders are definitely being too spineless, though. They let Turkey run around and do whatever it wants and just look the way as it creates instability in the region. That, in the long term, is bad for Western interests. You'd think they'd figure that out but nah. So because NATO does nothing, Turkey gets emboldened and gets to push around it's neighbors with impunity like the schoolyard bully they are. And they need to be smacked for it.

Reminds me alot of Neville Chamberlain and Hitler. "Oh if we're just nice to him and let him have Czechoslovakia, maybe he'll go away."

He didn't go away.

America, Israel, and Russia have sold weapons to both sides, which is blood money at this point, as those weapons are right now being used to commit war crimes. Though because Azerbaijan and Turkey are more populous and more economically powerful countries, they were able to build up enough of a military force to defeat Armenia.

Putin has also decided to gamble with Armenian lives for geo-political and economic gain, and allow Turkey to build up a large force of Islamic terrorists in the Caucasus. Assumingly Armenia is going to be forced into a humiliating peace agreement or ceasefire, and I'd hope for Armenia that Putin doesn't do to Armenia what the Soviet Union did and destroy and carve it up the Republic of Armenia in the 1920s. At the very least Armenians should never trust Putin's promises and assurances ever again, as for a good enough deal with Erdogan he'll betray them.

The Czechoslovakia comparison is pretty apt, as Turkey and Azerbaijan won't stop at Karabakh, as their long-term goal is to destroy Armenia as a nation and complete the Armenian Genocide. Not to mention this is just the first step, before Erdogan attempts an invasion of Cyprus and Greece. Karabakh is as much a buffer zone, as the fortified parts of Czechoslovakia, and with that gone there is nothing between Armenia proper and two hostile nations determined to destroy it - but a treaty that Putin could discard at a moments notice.

And if the European Union, the Russian Federation, and the United States allow it to happen, just like they'll allow this mass ethnic-cleansing to happen in Karabakh, then they'll deserve Erdogan at the gates of Vienna or Berlin, as they'd have betrayed Greek, Cypriot, and Armenian lives for a quick buck. Even now Germany is doing little to support Greece and Cyprus from Turkish aggression, as Merkel prefers trade over standing up for human rights let alone supporting the sovereignty of her fellow EU member states.

[Kargintina the Third]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/world ... die-168412

Azerbaijan shot down a Russian chopper

[Albionist Great Britain]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/world/russia-says-its-helicopter-shot-down-over-armenia-2-die-168412

Azerbaijan shot down a Russian chopper

This should count as an attack upon Russia, a non-combatant? I admittedly hope Putin keeps his strongman attitude in this and holds Baku to account. Ideally he’d go even further and put down the Azeri regime like the dogs they are (I mean capitulate ‘Azerbaijan’).

[Dakran]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/world/russia-says-its-helicopter-shot-down-over-armenia-2-die-168412

Azerbaijan shot down a Russian chopper

Oh. Oh boy. Is Azerbaijan about to get a fast pass to Mr Putins Wild Ride?

[Novus America]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/world/russia-says-its-helicopter-shot-down-over-armenia-2-die-168412

Azerbaijan shot down a Russian chopper

This should count as an attack upon Russia, a non-combatant? I admittedly hope Putin keeps his strongman attitude in this and holds Baku to account. Ideally he’d go even further and put down the Azeri regime like the dogs they are (I mean capitulate ‘Azerbaijan’).

Putin is much more bark than bite, his carefully crafted media image far removed from the reality. He is the Wizzard of Oz, a little (literally, he wears heels to look taller) man with a big media image. He will not do anything serious. He cares more about maintaining his relationships with Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Also Azerbaijan played it smart, told the truth, apologized, and offered to pay compensation. Russia will accept the apology.

[The Huskar Social Union]

Russia still probably wont get involved even with the chopper getting downed.

[Thermodolia]

This should count as an attack upon Russia, a non-combatant? I admittedly hope Putin keeps his strongman attitude in this and holds Baku to account. Ideally he’d go even further and put down the Azeri regime like the dogs they are (I mean capitulate ‘Azerbaijan’).

Putin is much more bark than bite, his carefully crafted media image far removed from the reality. He is the Wizzard of Oz, a little (literally, he wears heels to look taller) man with a big media image. He will not do anything serious. He cares more about maintaining his relationships with Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Also Azerbaijan played it smart, told the truth, apologized, and offered to pay compensation. Russia will accept the apology.

Yup. Because they told the truth and apologized russia can sweep it under the rug. Now if they hadn’t or had invaded Russia then it would far different

[Kowani]

Breaking: Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia have signed a deal to end the war.

[The Huskar Social Union]

Breaking: Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia have signed a deal to end the war.

I imagine with the gains Azerbaijan has made they are getting some land under this deal.

[Novus America]

A Christian relief organization is airlifting 11+ tons of winter clothing to aide Armenian civilians

That's good, of course.

Personally, I'd be sending Stingers.

Well obviously a private relief organization would not do that, but actually you would want radar and radio jamming equipment, EW/ECM which is more efficient against drones than MANPADs.

[Novus America]

Breaking: Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia have signed a deal to end the war.

I imagine with the gains Azerbaijan has made they are getting some land under this deal.

We have had a bunch a promised to end the war before. They all turned out false.

But if this does actually end the war, you are correct it will be by Armenia surrendering large amounts of the disputed areas to Azerbaijan.

[The Huskar Social Union]

I found this translation of the deal on reddit which is based on the text in this article (its in russian i think)

Translation:
"We, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan I. G. Aliyev, Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia N. V. Pashinyan and President of the Russian Federation V. V. Putin, have declared the following:

1. A complete ceasefire and all hostilities in the zone of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are announced from 00:00 hours Moscow time on November 10, 2020. The Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia, hereinafter referred to as the Parties, stop at their positions.

2. The Agdam region and the territories held by the Armenian Party in the Gazakh region of the Republic of Azerbaijan shall be returned to the Azerbaijan Party until November 20, 2020.

3. Along the line of contact in Nagorno-Karabakh and along the Lachin corridor, a peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is deployed in the amount of 1,960 servicemen with small arms, 90 armored personnel carriers, 380 units of automobile and special equipment.

4. The peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is being deployed in parallel with the withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces. The duration of the stay of the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is 5 years with automatic extension for the next 5-year periods, if none of the Parties declares 6 months before the expiration of the period of intention to terminate the application of this provision.

5. In order to increase the effectiveness of control over the implementation of the agreements by the Parties to the conflict, a peacekeeping center is being deployed to control the ceasefire.

6. The Republic of Armenia will return the Kelbajar region to the Republic of Azerbaijan by November 15, 2020, and the Lachin region by December 1, 2020, while leaving behind the Lachin corridor (5 km wide), which will ensure the connection of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia and at the same time not will affect the city of Shusha. By agreement of the Parties, in the next three years, a plan for the construction of a new traffic route along the Lachin corridor, providing communication between Stepanakert and Armenia, with the subsequent redeployment of the Russian peacekeeping contingent to protect this route will be determined. The Republic of Azerbaijan guarantees the safety of traffic along the Lachin corridor of citizens, vehicles and goods in both directions.

7. Internally displaced persons and refugees are returning to the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent areas under the control of the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.

8. The exchange of prisoners of war and other detainees and bodies of the dead is carried out.

9. All economic and transport links in the region are unblocked. The Republic of Armenia provides transport links between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic in order to organize the unimpeded movement of citizens, vehicles and goods in both directions. Transport control is exercised by the bodies of the Border Service of the FSB of Russia.

10. By agreement of the Parties, construction of new transport communications linking the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic with the western regions of Azerbaijan will be provided. "

[Novus America]

It is confirmed Azerbaijan took Shusha.

It seems basically Armenia has agreed to a conditional surrender. In which huge amounts of land will go to Azerbaijan but something of a rump Nagorno-Karabakh will remain.

So not the worst outcome (Nagorno-Karabakh will not be completely liquidated) but certainly Armenia lost the war.

[The Huskar Social Union]

It is confirmed Azerbaijan took Shusha.

It seems basically Armenia has agreed to a conditional surrender. In which huge amounts of land will go to Azerbaijan but something of a rump Nagorno-Karabakh will remain.

So not the worst outcome (Nagorno-Karabakh will not be completely liquidated) but certainly Armenia lost the war.

Yup, unfortunately.

[Heloin]

I found this translation of the deal on reddit which is based on the text in this article (its in russian i think)

6. The Republic of Armenia will return the Kelbajar region to the Republic of Azerbaijan by November 15, 2020, and the Lachin region by December 1, 2020, while leaving behind the Lachin corridor (5 km wide), which will ensure the connection of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia and at the same time not will affect the city of Shusha. By agreement of the Parties, in the next three years, a plan for the construction of a new traffic route along the Lachin corridor, providing communication between Stepanakert and Armenia, with the subsequent redeployment of the Russian peacekeeping contingent to protect this route will be determined. The Republic of Azerbaijan guarantees the safety of traffic along the Lachin corridor of citizens, vehicles and goods in both directions.

I don't doubt the translation but I wonder what it means by Shushi not being effected. If the city stays in Azeri hands it will be devastating for Artsakh since the town is on a very strategic area outside the capital. The Azerbaijani military could easily turn Stepanakert into the next Siege of Sarajevo if they are left in control of the town.

[Luziyca]

Really hope that the Azerbaijanis don't ethnically cleanse the returned territory of its Armenian population.

[The Huskar Social Union]

I found this translation of the deal on reddit which is based on the text in this article (its in russian i think)

I don't doubt the translation but I wonder what it means by Shushi not being effected. If the city stays in Azeri hands it will be devastating for Artsakh since the town is on a very strategic area outside the capital. The Azerbaijani military could easily turn Stepanakert into the next Siege of Sarajevo if they are left in control of the town.

I think it means that the town will remain under Armenian control as part of the corridor as i think they would need to control that town for the corridor to function properly.