Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict: The Great Betrayal

[Novus America]

Do not expect Russia to intervene, unless the fighting goes into Armenia proper (in its international recognized borders).

“It is deeply regrettable that the hostilities continue, but they are not taking place on Armenian territory,” Putin said.”
“Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was more explicit, saying Russia's obligations under the CSTO "do not extend to Karabakh."
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/10/ ... ays-a71687

Basically because Russia has said Armenia will only be protected in its internationally recognized borders, and the disputed territory is not part of Armenia, Russia has basically made the disputed areas fair game for Azerbaijan.

In other news, even Armenian sources have acknowledged that Azerbaijan has reached the outskirts of Shusha.
Basically if Azerbaijan takes Shusha, then the main road between Armenia proper and the disputed territories will be closed. If Azerbaijan takes it, it will be a decisive victory.
Basically the situation is really bad for Armenia.

Short of Russian or Iranian intervention, neither which seem forthcoming, Armenia has to launch a major counterattack to retake the Aras valley, which also seems unlikely. Or it is screwed.
This has become a grinding war of attrition, which Azerbaijan with its much greater population, economy, natural resources and superior military equipment is likely to win.

If you are outnumbered you need to hit hard and fast, win early, or you are at a major disadvantage.

But Azerbaijan has taken control of Armenian lands. Granted it’s an Armenian exclave but it’s still Armenian territory

But it is not Armenian territory according to Russia. Russia has explicitly stated it does not consider the area being fought over as part of Armenia. Regardless of the ethnic makeup of the areas.
You can make a good argument that Nagorno-Karabakh should go to Armenia, (I agree it should have because the majority wanted it) but Russia has never recognized it as being part of Armenia.

[Rio Cana]

But Azerbaijan has taken control of Armenian lands. Granted it’s an Armenian exclave but it’s still Armenian territory

But it is not Armenian territory according to Russia. Russia has explicitly stated it does not consider the area being fought over as part of Armenia. Regardless of the ethnic makeup of the areas.
You can make a good argument that Nagorno-Karabakh should go to Armenia, (I agree it should have because the majority wanted it) but Russia has never recognized it as being part of Armenia.

Most of the world is saying the same thing about Crimea. Seems someone has double standards.

[Novus America]

I'd hope the Armenians could hold their ground but doubt it at this stage. Was honestly kind of hoping Russia would get involved a bit more to try and end the conflict.

So this is how it goes? Azerbaijan takes NK and pushes out its ancient Armenian community forever

At this point that seems unfortunately increasingly likely. Armenia got complacent. And did not have the birth rates, natural resources and economic power to rely on. It did not apparently maintain strong enough defenses.
Or a good strategy to counter an all out attack. Given how badly Azerbaijan fought in the 1991-1994 war, it seems Armenia though the same thing would happen again.

But the situation now is quite different, Azerbaijan is much stronger in its military and nationalism than it was in the early 90s, a newly independent state with a force of Soviet left overs.

[Thermodolia]

But Azerbaijan has taken control of Armenian lands. Granted it’s an Armenian exclave but it’s still Armenian territory

But it is not Armenian territory according to Russia. Russia has explicitly stated it does not consider the area being fought over as part of Armenia. Regardless of the ethnic makeup of the areas.
You can make a good argument that Nagorno-Karabakh should go to Armenia, (I agree it should have because the majority wanted it) but Russia has never recognized it as being part of Armenia.

That’s not the part im talking about though. I’m talking about Artsvashen which has been occupied by Azerbaijan and is apart of Armenia’s internationally recognized borders.

[Novus America]

But it is not Armenian territory according to Russia. Russia has explicitly stated it does not consider the area being fought over as part of Armenia. Regardless of the ethnic makeup of the areas.
You can make a good argument that Nagorno-Karabakh should go to Armenia, (I agree it should have because the majority wanted it) but Russia has never recognized it as being part of Armenia.

Most of the world is saying the same thing about Crimea. Seems someone has double standards.

One thing is Russia signed a treaty recognizing Crimea as Ukraine. Armenia never signed a treaty giving up the disputed land.
But would be willing to recognize Crimea going to Russia, if Russia held a free and fair referendum, respected Ukrainian navigation rights, and stopped its war in the East, stopped outlawing talk of independence (Russia hypocritically makes even talking about leaving Russia a crime) and such.

But that is another topic.

[Novus America]

But it is not Armenian territory according to Russia. Russia has explicitly stated it does not consider the area being fought over as part of Armenia. Regardless of the ethnic makeup of the areas.
You can make a good argument that Nagorno-Karabakh should go to Armenia, (I agree it should have because the majority wanted it) but Russia has never recognized it as being part of Armenia.

That’s not the part im talking about though. I’m talking about Artsvashen which has been occupied by Azerbaijan and is apart of Armenia’s internationally recognized borders.

Interesting point, I am not sure where Russia stands on that.
It should be Armenian according to Russia in theory. But I guess as it was occupied prior to Armenia joining CSTO, then Russia does not count it as being protected by CSTO?

Unfortunately the Soviets left a lot of border gore as part of their divide and conquer strategy.

[Rio Cana]

I'd hope the Armenians could hold their ground but doubt it at this stage. Was honestly kind of hoping Russia would get involved a bit more to try and end the conflict.

So this is how it goes? Azerbaijan takes NK and pushes out its ancient Armenian community forever

Basically. But instead of waiting for the Azeri forces to arrive and massacre them, the people of NK. should pack up and leave. Wonder if before they leave they will do a scorched earth policy. The international communities says NK. which was autonomous inside Azerbaijan cannot cut itself loose. But there will be no more autonomous NK. when the Azeris take over. It will be incorporated has a regular province minus the Armenians. Wonder what the international community has to say about that. Feel bad for the people of Artsakh that worked hard and fought hard to establish there small republic. It was all for nothing.

Found the following. Some think that certain Armenian government actions months ago was among the many things that lead to this war. Also, that Azerbaijan could be drawn into a Turkish orbit which would not be to there advantage. Read this - https://globalvoices.org/2020/10/07/tur ... an-aliyev/

[Kowani]

Azerbaijan hits a maternal hospital with rockets.

[Thermodolia]

That’s not the part im talking about though. I’m talking about Artsvashen which has been occupied by Azerbaijan and is apart of Armenia’s internationally recognized borders.

Interesting point, I am not sure where Russia stands on that.
It should be Armenian according to Russia in theory. But I guess as it was occupied prior to Armenia joining CSTO, then Russia does not count it as being protected by CSTO?

Unfortunately the Soviets left a lot of border gore as part of their divide and conquer strategy.

Apparently it was occupied in August of 1992 while Armenia joined CSTO in may of that year.

So I really don’t know where Russia stands on it

[Thermodolia]

Azerbaijan hits a maternal hospital with rockets.

Really trying to win the douchebag award i see

[Rio Cana]

That’s not the part im talking about though. I’m talking about Artsvashen which has been occupied by Azerbaijan and is apart of Armenia’s internationally recognized borders.

Interesting point, I am not sure where Russia stands on that.
It should be Armenian according to Russia in theory. But I guess as it was occupied prior to Armenia joining CSTO, then Russia does not count it as being protected by CSTO?

Unfortunately the Soviets left a lot of border gore as part of their divide and conquer strategy.

Its the 21 century. The UN could have made things right. But they sold out. I also think with some nations having there own problems with regions or provinces wanting out (example Catalonia in Spain) that the UN rather not deal with those problems. So I have no idea how they approved of Kosovo breaking away from Serbia. Nagorno Karabakh = Kosovo. Again double standards.

[Aureumterra III]

Interesting point, I am not sure where Russia stands on that.
It should be Armenian according to Russia in theory. But I guess as it was occupied prior to Armenia joining CSTO, then Russia does not count it as being protected by CSTO?

Unfortunately the Soviets left a lot of border gore as part of their divide and conquer strategy.

Its the 21 century. The UN could have made things right. But they sold out. I also think with some nations having there own problems with regions or provinces wanting out (example Catalonia in Spain) that the UN rather not deal with those problems. So I have no idea how they approved of Kosovo breaking away from Serbia. Nagorno Karabakh = Kosovo. Again double standards.

The UN is a joke

[Novus America]

Interesting point, I am not sure where Russia stands on that.
It should be Armenian according to Russia in theory. But I guess as it was occupied prior to Armenia joining CSTO, then Russia does not count it as being protected by CSTO?

Unfortunately the Soviets left a lot of border gore as part of their divide and conquer strategy.

Its the 21 century. The UN could have made things right. But they sold out. I also think with some nations having there own problems with regions or provinces wanting out (example Catalonia in Spain) that the UN rather not deal with those problems. So I have no idea how they approved of Kosovo breaking away from Serbia. Nagorno Karabakh = Kosovo. Again double standards.

The UN never approved Kosovo breaking away, Kosovo is not a UN member. It did not approve it, or stop it because it was too divided.

The UN is utterly dysfunctional, it is made up of too many countries with completely different outlooks, objectIves and purposes. It runs the gamut from mostly peaceful liberal democracies to authoritarian revanchist regimes, to everything in between.

[Borderlands of Rojava]

Azerbaijan hits a maternal hospital with rockets.

Really trying to win the douchebag award i see

They're trying to leave no trace of Armenians in NK. This is a war of attrition.

[United States of Devonta]

Azeri troops are 5 KM away from Susha - the cultural capital of Karabagh - according to the Astrakh president

[Borderlands of Rojava]

Azeri troops are 5 KM away from Susha - the cultural capital of Karabagh - according to the Astrakh president

Good god

[United States of Devonta]

Also, a nice guide to video confirmed losses of military equipment on both sides can be found here.

Notice how Armenian material losses are much higher then Azeri losses, largely due to the use of modern drones by the Azeri military. Also, it's easier to record losses with a literal drone carrying a camera recording every kill.

[Pasong Tirad]

Sure, because if things get bad, the leader of the free-ish world, Vladimir Putin, will intervene.

Nikol Pashinyan does not really know the Turks, he should understand how the Turkish people think. Putin is trying to explain this to Armenia, but they continue to follow a policy that does not like anyone in their country.

How Hakinda thinks:

[Borderlands of Rojava]

Nikol Pashinyan does not really know the Turks, he should understand how the Turkish people think. Putin is trying to explain this to Armenia, but they continue to follow a policy that does not like anyone in their country.

How Hakinda thinks:

Lol I'm in there and I'm not even Kurdish.

[Salus Maior]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 22175.html Apparently Turks and Azeris can’t keep their killing of Armenians in the Caucasus.

It’s a joke to think that anything has changed in that culture since 1915.

[Kowani]

Finally, some good news: Both sides have agreed to avoid targeting residential areas.

[United States of Devonta]

Finally, some good news: Both sides have agreed to avoid targeting residential areas.

Eh. Both sides can still claim it was indirect fire. Means nothing

[Albionist Great Britain]

Finally, some good news: Both sides have agreed to avoid targeting residential areas.

I expect news showing the Turks lied by the afternoon.

[Borderlands of Rojava]

Finally, some good news: Both sides have agreed to avoid targeting residential areas.

Yeah I totally believe that the Pan Turkic government in Baku isn't deliberately targeting civilians and won't continue to until there are no Armenians remaining in NK.

I'm just kidding. This is so clearly a war of genocidal intentions.

[Borderlands of Rojava]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/turks-azeris-lyon-france-armenians-vienne-video-b1422175.html Apparently Turks and Azeris can’t keep their killing of Armenians in the Caucasus.

It’s a joke to think that anything has changed in that culture since 1915.

I can imagine they find an actual armenian and it goes like

Turk: "Hey are you Armenian?"

Armenian: "...No, uh I'm a Copt."

Turk: "Oh good cause that'd be bad."

Armenian: "Why?"

Turk: "I'd have to kill you."