Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict: The Great Betrayal

[Kowani]

When looking at the causes of the First World War one must look to it's root in the fall of Babylon.

"Look all I'm saying is that the assassination of Caesar is the root cause of the existence of Mario."

"And that's how the Justinian Plague led to hentai"

[SD_Film Artists]

Updates!

The northern and southern land that was captured has seemingly been repelled and returned to Artsakh. Talish village has been taken by Azerbaijani forces - there is video. This does mean that no villages in the south have been taken, as the Azerbaijani MoD immediately released footage of Talish villages capture. In that regard, it’s likely this is the only village currently under their control - otherwise they would of released footage immediately of other captured villages, just like Talish. Additionally, Azerbaijan claimed to capture Talish at the start of this fighting on the 27th. The fact video is released today, on the 5th of October, illustrates that we require High levels of caution concerning their claims.

However, this village also fell in 2016, and was recaptured - it seems everyone in the village was evacuated.

The blue circles in the land which used to be completely blue means 'confirmed Azerbaijani retreat' or 'frontline with no confirmed owner'?

[Lower Nubia]

Updates!

The northern and southern land that was captured has seemingly been repelled and returned to Artsakh. Talish village has been taken by Azerbaijani forces - there is video. This does mean that no villages in the south have been taken, as the Azerbaijani MoD immediately released footage of Talish villages capture. In that regard, it’s likely this is the only village currently under their control - otherwise they would of released footage immediately of other captured villages, just like Talish. Additionally, Azerbaijan claimed to capture Talish at the start of this fighting on the 27th. The fact video is released today, on the 5th of October, illustrates that we require High levels of caution concerning their claims.

However, this village also fell in 2016, and was recaptured - it seems everyone in the village was evacuated.

The blue circles in the land which used to be completely blue means 'confirmed Azerbaijani retreat' or 'frontline with no confirmed owner'?

Areas of alleged Azerbaijani offensive, but not held/no longer held by Azerbaijan. The dark blue is the areas they are claiming to occupy. Currently that is only Talysh, for which we have evidence for, however, they will likely not hold onto it, similar to 2016.

It’s pretty obvious they’ve only captured Talysh as the moment they captured it they adorned it with Azerbaijani flags and recorded every bit of it. Something they have not done for other claimed settlements, not even Madaghis.

[SD_Film Artists]

The blue circles in the land which used to be completely blue means 'confirmed Azerbaijani retreat' or 'frontline with no confirmed owner'?

Areas of alleged Azerbaijani offensive, but not held/no longer held by Azerbaijan. The dark blue is the areas they are claiming to occupy. Currently that is only Talysh, for which we have evidence for, however, they will likely not hold onto it, similar to 2016.

It’s pretty obvious they’ve only captured Talysh as the moment they captured it they adorned it with Azerbaijani flags and recorded every bit of it. Something they have not done for other claimed settlements, not even Madaghis.

I'd like to believe that but Azerbaijan does have superior numbers and air support. Do you think they're recieving more support from Iran/Russia or are they just that good? It also helps that they're defending of course. The Armenians have twice as many losses according to Oryx, though that could be explained by Azeri cameras being more prevalent with drones.

[Lower Nubia]

Areas of alleged Azerbaijani offensive, but not held/no longer held by Azerbaijan. The dark blue is the areas they are claiming to occupy. Currently that is only Talysh, for which we have evidence for, however, they will likely not hold onto it, similar to 2016.

It’s pretty obvious they’ve only captured Talysh as the moment they captured it they adorned it with Azerbaijani flags and recorded every bit of it. Something they have not done for other claimed settlements, not even Madaghis.

I'd like to believe that but Azerbaijan does have superior numbers and air support. Do you think they're recieving more support from Iran/Russia or are they just that good? It also helps that they're defending of course. The Armenians have twice as many losses according to Oryx, though that could be explained by Azeri cameras being more prevalent with drones.

Superior numbers and air support are only useful if the person your attacking has not accounted for that situation. A classic example is the Vietnam war; a vastly superior arsenal and military size but was thwarted by the unique tactics of the viet kong. In this regard, Azerbaijan has superiority in equipment but that equipment does not provide a vast edge. The edge that is significant is their drones, which have been the primary reason for Armenian equipment losses. However, the phrase “Artillery is king” is still very applicable is this combat situation and proper use of artillery and ATGM can easily thwart an attack on a critical route for supplying convoys or armour

Importantly, it’s also been very foggy on the Artsakh front lines the past day, which has made drone usage more difficult.

Iran has not provided any weaponry to my knowledge. Nor is Armenia getting help from Iranian command, it’s too diplomatically risky seeing as Iran is on the US and UN’s radar.

Russia provides the bulk of Armenian weapons but again, is not providing help tactically in this situation.

We know for a fact that Azerbaijan has sustained heavier losses. On the 29th of September Azerbaijan, accidentally, revealed that they lost 649 individuals. At the same time Armenia claimed Azerbaijan had lost 740 individuals - not much difference. That was 6 days ago, it’s going to be a much larger value today.

[Aureumterra III]

Have the Armenians made any significant gains at all yet?

[Lower Nubia]

Have the Armenians made any significant gains at all yet?

Gains? Into Azerbaijan beyond Artsakh?

[The Restored Danelaw]

Have the Armenians made any significant gains at all yet?

They're defending, they're not supposed to be mounting an offensive. Though I do suspect that if this goes long and not to Baku's benefit, Armenia will move in on Nakhchivan too. Especially if Turkey gets implicated further, but I wouldn't expect Armenia mounting an offensive into Baku, rather holding their positions and letting Baku send in troops to die.

[Pasong Tirad]

Artsakh and Armenia have no territorial ambitions apart from maintaining the status quo, and possibly taking the areas of historical Nagorno-Karabakh that are occupied by Azerbaijan.

[Lower Nubia]

Have the Armenians made any significant gains at all yet?

They're defending, they're not supposed to be mounting an offensive. Though I do suspect that if this goes long and not to Baku's benefit, Armenia will move in on Nakhchivan too. Especially if Turkey gets implicated further, but I wouldn't expect Armenia mounting an offensive into Baku, rather holding their positions and letting Baku send in troops to die.

Not in a million years. They won’t move into Nakhchivan while Karabakh is an issue, or unless Azerbaijan launches an offensive from Nakhchivan. Nakhchivan is accepted by both sides as non-combative and any effort from either side would bring in the defenders respective allies. Azerbaijan being attacked form Armenia in Nakhchivan would bring Turkey in fully. While Azerbaijan attacking Armenia from Nakhchivan would bring in Russia and CSTO against Azerbaijan.

[Baltenstein]

Areas of alleged Azerbaijani offensive, but not held/no longer held by Azerbaijan. The dark blue is the areas they are claiming to occupy. Currently that is only Talysh, for which we have evidence for, however, they will likely not hold onto it, similar to 2016.

It’s pretty obvious they’ve only captured Talysh as the moment they captured it they adorned it with Azerbaijani flags and recorded every bit of it. Something they have not done for other claimed settlements, not even Madaghis.

I'd like to believe that but Azerbaijan does have superior numbers and air support. Do you think they're recieving more support from Iran/Russia or are they just that good? It also helps that they're defending of course. The Armenians have twice as many losses according to Oryx, though that could be explained by Azeri cameras being more prevalent with drones.

OTOH, Azerbaijan had superior numbers, tech and money in both the early 90ies and 2016, and still the managed to lose the first round and not win the second round.

[Lower Nubia]

I'd like to believe that but Azerbaijan does have superior numbers and air support. Do you think they're recieving more support from Iran/Russia or are they just that good? It also helps that they're defending of course. The Armenians have twice as many losses according to Oryx, though that could be explained by Azeri cameras being more prevalent with drones.

OTOH, Azerbaijan had superior numbers, tech and money in both the early 90ies and 2016, and still the managed to lose the first round and not win the second round.

Exactly, 30 years later and Artsakh is more entrenched, better supplied, and used to the terrain. Not to mention they have families their now - which is crucial for morale. It’s not a pushover.

[Coradortodos]

This Is Because Of Border Disputes of course

[The Restored Danelaw]

OTOH, Azerbaijan had superior numbers, tech and money in both the early 90ies and 2016, and still the managed to lose the first round and not win the second round.

Exactly, 30 years later and Artsakh is more entrenched, better supplied, and used to the terrain. Not to mention they have families their now - which is crucial for morale. It’s not a pushover.

Baku is fighting this for nationalism and expansion. Stepanakert and Yrevan are fighting this because if they lose, 140 thousand Armenians -at the very least- will be dead or homeless.

[Heloin]

They're defending, they're not supposed to be mounting an offensive. Though I do suspect that if this goes long and not to Baku's benefit, Armenia will move in on Nakhchivan too. Especially if Turkey gets implicated further, but I wouldn't expect Armenia mounting an offensive into Baku, rather holding their positions and letting Baku send in troops to die.

Not in a million years. They won’t move into Nakhchivan while Karabakh is an issue, or unless Azerbaijan launches an offensive from Nakhchivan. Nakhchivan is accepted by both sides as non-combative and any effort from either side would bring in the defenders respective allies. Azerbaijan being attacked form Armenia in Nakhchivan would bring Turkey in fully. While Azerbaijan attacking Armenia from Nakhchivan would bring in Russia and CSTO against Azerbaijan.

That isn't true. While Armenia isn't interested in taking Nakhichevan no one treats them like like they're some independent third party. Clashes along that border have been common since the 1980s and Armenia blockades the region.

Nakhichevan may be the only part of Azerbaijan open to a peaceful solution to the conflict but they still support Azerbaijan fully.

[Salus Maior]

"Look all I'm saying is that the assassination of Caesar is the root cause of the existence of Mario."

"And that's how the Justinian Plague led to hentai"

Well, this thread has changed in mood in the last 8 hours or so I've been away.

[Salus Maior]

The blue circles in the land which used to be completely blue means 'confirmed Azerbaijani retreat' or 'frontline with no confirmed owner'?

Areas of alleged Azerbaijani offensive, but not held/no longer held by Azerbaijan. The dark blue is the areas they are claiming to occupy. Currently that is only Talysh, for which we have evidence for, however, they will likely not hold onto it, similar to 2016.

It’s pretty obvious they’ve only captured Talysh as the moment they captured it they adorned it with Azerbaijani flags and recorded every bit of it. Something they have not done for other claimed settlements, not even Madaghis.

What do you think about the Jabrayil offensive?

[Lower Nubia]

Not in a million years. They won’t move into Nakhchivan while Karabakh is an issue, or unless Azerbaijan launches an offensive from Nakhchivan. Nakhchivan is accepted by both sides as non-combative and any effort from either side would bring in the defenders respective allies. Azerbaijan being attacked form Armenia in Nakhchivan would bring Turkey in fully. While Azerbaijan attacking Armenia from Nakhchivan would bring in Russia and CSTO against Azerbaijan.

That isn't true. While Armenia isn't interested in taking Nakhichevan no one treats them like like they're some independent third party. Clashes along that border have been common since the 1980s and Armenia blockades the region.

Nakhichevan may be the only part of Azerbaijan open to a peaceful solution to the conflict but they still support Azerbaijan fully.

There’s a difference concerning clashes, and an actual territorial grab along that border. Neither side is exchanging territory on that border and any attempt to do so will be met with retaliation from the defenders allies.

[Heloin]

That isn't true. While Armenia isn't interested in taking Nakhichevan no one treats them like like they're some independent third party. Clashes along that border have been common since the 1980s and Armenia blockades the region.

Nakhichevan may be the only part of Azerbaijan open to a peaceful solution to the conflict but they still support Azerbaijan fully.

There’s a difference concerning clashes, and an actual territorial grab along that border. Neither side is exchanging territory on that border and any attempt to do so will be met with retaliation from the defenders allies.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karki,_Azerbaijan

[An-Tanwir]

Is it true that the people in the disputed territory voted to become Armenian around the close of the 80s?

[The Restored Danelaw]

Is it true that the people in the disputed territory voted to become Armenian around the close of the 80s?

The Armenians (roughly ~75% of the area's population at the time) did. The Azeris boycotted it and called for Baku to invade and ethnically cleanse the area.

[Lower Nubia]

Areas of alleged Azerbaijani offensive, but not held/no longer held by Azerbaijan. The dark blue is the areas they are claiming to occupy. Currently that is only Talysh, for which we have evidence for, however, they will likely not hold onto it, similar to 2016.

It’s pretty obvious they’ve only captured Talysh as the moment they captured it they adorned it with Azerbaijani flags and recorded every bit of it. Something they have not done for other claimed settlements, not even Madaghis.

What do you think about the Jabrayil offensive?

One thing we do know, it’s failed. We’ve had no video’s from Azerbaijan parading the capture of villages there. We know tanks and forces reached into the territory as there was a counter attack, but no territory has been exchanged.

I can’t speak for the territory near Fuzuguli, that may still be occupied by Azerbaijan.

[Lower Nubia]

There’s a difference concerning clashes, and an actual territorial grab along that border. Neither side is exchanging territory on that border and any attempt to do so will be met with retaliation from the defenders allies.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karki,_Azerbaijan

I’d say 1990 is a little different scenario to today.

[An-Tanwir]

Is it true that the people in the disputed territory voted to become Armenian around the close of the 80s?

The Armenians (roughly ~75% of the area's population at the time) did. The Azeris boycotted it and called for Baku to invade and ethnically cleanse the area.

Huh. So the Armenians are the "good" side?

[The Restored Danelaw]

The Armenians (roughly ~75% of the area's population at the time) did. The Azeris boycotted it and called for Baku to invade and ethnically cleanse the area.

Huh. So the Armenians are the "good" side?

This is real life. There aren't "good" sides. That whole shitshow of a conflict left hundreds of thousands of people from the two sides displaced and that was just the first four years. But I am unquestionably on the Armenians' side in this whole conflict.