NationStates

Posted: **Sat Sep 26, 2020 12:46 pm**

Kowani wrote:
Kexholm Karelia wrote:He didn’t become president, he can’t be the first Asian American president

I assume there was an a logical statement in there somewhere.

No State Here wrote:I don’t want to imagine a single person who posts here with that much power…

Oh, come on, I’d be a great political overlord.

Actually, you'd be a pretty terrible overlord. No offense.

Posted: **Sat Sep 26, 2020 12:46 pm**

West Leas Oros 2 wrote:
Kexholm Karelia wrote:He didn’t become president, he can’t be the first Asian American president

Yang could still run in 2024, which means he has a chance.

I have a feeling if Biden wins he will wind up in a cabinet position.

Posted: **Sat Sep 26, 2020 12:47 pm**

Kowani wrote:
Kexholm Karelia wrote:He didn’t become president, he can’t be the first Asian American president

I assume there was an a logical statement in there somewhere.

No State Here wrote:I don’t want to imagine a single person who posts here with that much power…

Oh, come on, I’d be a great political overlord.

Great like in actually a genuinely good ruler, or great like in 'children two hundred years from now will write history essays about Kowani the Horrible'?

Posted: **Sat Sep 26, 2020 12:47 pm**

No State Here wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:Aight Cisairse, you got three golden NS candidates to go for. Choose wisely.

I don’t want to imagine a single person who posts here with that much power…

~~I think I would make a good president~~

Posted: **Sat Sep 26, 2020 12:48 pm**

Kexholm Karelia wrote:
No State Here wrote:I don’t want to imagine a single person who posts here with that much power…

~~I think I would make a good president~~

Nah, I think I would.

Posted: **Sat Sep 26, 2020 12:48 pm**

San Lumen wrote:
West Leas Oros 2 wrote:Yang could still run in 2024, which means he has a chance.

I have a feeling if Biden wins he will wind up in a cabinet position.

I doubt it Nobody knows of him, he's not a party official, and he doesn't further any of Biden's agenda.

Posted: **Sat Sep 26, 2020 12:48 pm**

No State Here wrote:I don’t want to imagine a single person who posts here with that much power…

Fairly certain that there have NSers who were involved with political parties in some way, although I can't remember who exactly.

Posted: **Sat Sep 26, 2020 12:48 pm**

San Lumen wrote:
West Leas Oros 2 wrote:Yang could still run in 2024, which means he has a chance.

I have a feeling if Biden wins he will wind up in a cabinet position.

Which one?

Posted: **Sat Sep 26, 2020 12:49 pm**

West Leas Oros 2 wrote:
San Lumen wrote:I have a feeling if Biden wins he will wind up in a cabinet position.

Which one?

No idea.

Posted: **Sat Sep 26, 2020 12:52 pm**

West Leas Oros 2 wrote:
Kowani wrote:I assume there was an a logical statement in there somewhere.

Oh, come on, I’d be a great political overlord.

Actually, you'd be a pretty terrible overlord. No offense.

That’sthejoke

Telconi wrote:
Kowani wrote:I assume there was an a logical statement in there somewhere.

Oh, come on, I’d be a great political overlord.

Great like in actually a genuinely good ruler, or great like in 'children two hundred years from now will write history essays about Kowani the Horrible'?

I’m aiming for both. Loved during my time, hated years in the future.

Posted: **Sat Sep 26, 2020 12:58 pm**

West Leas Oros 2 wrote:
San Lumen wrote:I have a feeling if Biden wins he will wind up in a cabinet position.

Which one?

Tchotchke drawer.

Posted: **Sat Sep 26, 2020 1:01 pm**

West Leas Oros 2 wrote:
San Lumen wrote:I have a feeling if Biden wins he will wind up in a cabinet position.

Which one?

I forgot for a moment that cabinet positions aren't usually just for a couple months. It's going to take some getting used to again with a cabinet that doesn't have a higher turnover rate than a temp agency.

Posted: **Sat Sep 26, 2020 1:10 pm**

Rusozak wrote:
West Leas Oros 2 wrote:Which one?

I forgot for a moment that cabinet positions aren't usually just for a couple months. It's going to take some getting used to again with a cabinet that doesn't have a higher turnover rate than a temp agency.

lol, good one, I am having a lol attack,

But obviously I and my fellow Republicans want President Trump too win, I know you all don't want Trump to win, obviously.

Posted: **Sat Sep 26, 2020 1:17 pm**

Wrote a small program to calculate polling averages. Here's the output for September polls. Positive numbers indicate a Biden lead, negative indicate a Trump lead. This is not intended to be a substitute for things like RCP or FiveThirtyEight, but just something compact and easy to read.

Code: Select all: Maryland 32.0 California 26.7 Maine CD-1 26.1 Vermont 23.3 Washington 22.0 New Jersey 18.3 Maine 16.3 New Mexico 15.0 Oregon 12.0 Virginia 9.5 Colorado 8.8 Minnesota 8.5 United States 7.3 <- Nevada 6.6 Wisconsin 6.6 Michigan 6.6 Pennsylvania 6.0 Nebraska CD-2 6.0 Arizona 4.3 Maine CD-2 3.7 New Hampshire 3.0 Florida 1.9 North Carolina 1.5 Ohio 1.1 Iowa -0.3 Georgia -0.5 Texas -2.0 Kansas -5.0 South Carolina -6.0 Louisiana -6.0 Missouri -6.5 Montana -7.0 Indiana -14.0 Utah -18.0 Kentucky -19.5 Oklahoma -24.4 Idaho -25.2

Each pollster's polls are averaged together, then these averages are weighted (according to 538's pollster ratings) and averaged together for each state. A-rated pollsters get a weight of 4, B a weight of 3, C a weight of 2, D a weight of 1, and unrated or F-rated pollsters get thrown out. I consider "A/B" pollsters as B-rated (same thing goes for B/C or C/D, they're C and D respectively). I could also post an unweighted version if you guys want that.

I'm not a statistician or anything, so don't crucify me too hard if I'm doing something dumb. I'll post this maybe every few weeks or something. Will note any changes I make here.

Posted: **Sat Sep 26, 2020 1:17 pm**

Rusozak wrote:
West Leas Oros 2 wrote:Which one?

I forgot for a moment that cabinet positions aren't usually just for a couple months. It's going to take some getting used to again with a cabinet that doesn't have a higher turnover rate than a temp agency.

That's what happens when you only pick the best people.

Posted: **Sat Sep 26, 2020 1:18 pm**

Eukaryotic Cells wrote:Wrote a small program to calculate polling averages. Here's the output for September polls. Positive numbers indicate a Biden lead, negative indicate a Trump lead. This is not intended to be a substitute for things like RCP or FiveThirtyEight, but just something compact and easy to read.

Code: Select all
Maryland 32.0 California 26.7 Maine CD-1 26.1 Vermont 23.3 Washington 22.0 New Jersey 18.3 Maine 16.3 New Mexico 15.0 Oregon 12.0 Virginia 9.5 Colorado 8.8 Minnesota 8.5 United States 7.3 <- Nevada 6.6 Wisconsin 6.6 Michigan 6.6 Pennsylvania 6.0 Nebraska CD-2 6.0 Arizona 4.3 Maine CD-2 3.7 New Hampshire 3.0 Florida 1.9 North Carolina 1.5 Ohio 1.1 Iowa -0.3 Georgia -0.5 Texas -2.0 Kansas -5.0 South Carolina -6.0 Louisiana -6.0 Missouri -6.5 Montana -7.0 Indiana -14.0 Utah -18.0 Kentucky -19.5 Oklahoma -24.4 Idaho -25.2

Each pollster's polls are averaged together, then these averages are weighted (according to 538's pollster ratings) and averaged together for each state. A rated pollsters get a weight of 4, B a weight of 3, C a weight of 2, D a weight of 1, and unrated or F-rated pollsters get thrown out. I consider "A/B" pollsters as B-rated (same thing goes for B/C or C/D, they're C and D respectively). I could also post an unweighted version if you guys want that.

I'm not a statistician or anything, so don't crucify me too hard if I'm doing something dumb. I'll post this maybe every few weeks or something. Will note any changes I make here.

If Biden wins the big three by 6 or more I think there is a decent chance we know the outcome election night.

Posted: **Sat Sep 26, 2020 1:18 pm**

Telconi wrote:
Rusozak wrote:
I forgot for a moment that cabinet positions aren't usually just for a couple months. It's going to take some getting used to again with a cabinet that doesn't have a higher turnover rate than a temp agency.

That's what happens when you only pick the best people.

Or just no one at all.

As is the case for most of the Federal Agencies.

Posted: **Sat Sep 26, 2020 1:19 pm**

Organized States wrote:
Telconi wrote:
That's what happens when you only pick the best people.

Or just no one at all.

As is the case for most of the Federal Agencies.

At least Biden won't pick people who are the antithesis of what the department stands for. Prior to DeJoy I didnt even know who the postmaster general was. Its historically a relatively obscure position with a few exceptions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Creswell

There is a case to be made that John Creswell who was appointed by Grant was on the best Postmaster Generals ever and his reforms led to the post office we know today. He helped integrate the post office.

Posted: **Sat Sep 26, 2020 1:25 pm**

San Lumen wrote:
Eukaryotic Cells wrote:Wrote a small program to calculate polling averages. Here's the output for September polls. Positive numbers indicate a Biden lead, negative indicate a Trump lead. This is not intended to be a substitute for things like RCP or FiveThirtyEight, but just something compact and easy to read.

Code: Select all
Maryland 32.0 California 26.7 Maine CD-1 26.1 Vermont 23.3 Washington 22.0 New Jersey 18.3 Maine 16.3 New Mexico 15.0 Oregon 12.0 Virginia 9.5 Colorado 8.8 Minnesota 8.5 United States 7.3 <- Nevada 6.6 Wisconsin 6.6 Michigan 6.6 Pennsylvania 6.0 Nebraska CD-2 6.0 Arizona 4.3 Maine CD-2 3.7 New Hampshire 3.0 Florida 1.9 North Carolina 1.5 Ohio 1.1 Iowa -0.3 Georgia -0.5 Texas -2.0 Kansas -5.0 South Carolina -6.0 Louisiana -6.0 Missouri -6.5 Montana -7.0 Indiana -14.0 Utah -18.0 Kentucky -19.5 Oklahoma -24.4 Idaho -25.2

Each pollster's polls are averaged together, then these averages are weighted (according to 538's pollster ratings) and averaged together for each state. A rated pollsters get a weight of 4, B a weight of 3, C a weight of 2, D a weight of 1, and unrated or F-rated pollsters get thrown out. I consider "A/B" pollsters as B-rated (same thing goes for B/C or C/D, they're C and D respectively). I could also post an unweighted version if you guys want that.

I'm not a statistician or anything, so don't crucify me too hard if I'm doing something dumb. I'll post this maybe every few weeks or something. Will note any changes I make here.

If Biden wins the big three by 6 or more I think there is a decent chance we know the outcome election night.

Hopefully. I'm operating under the assumption that there may be up to a 5 point polling error in favor of Trump in some of these states.

If Biden maintains this lead, I think he'll probably win. If the race starts tightening up to the point where these crucial states are only +3 or +4 for Biden, I think Trump has a shot at winning. We'll see what happens I guess.

Posted: **Sat Sep 26, 2020 1:26 pm**

Eukaryotic Cells wrote:
San Lumen wrote:If Biden wins the big three by 6 or more I think there is a decent chance we know the outcome election night.

Hopefully. I'm operating under the assumption that there may be up to a 5 point polling error in favor of Trump in some of these states.

If Biden maintains this lead, I think he'll probably win. If the race starts tightening up to the point where these crucial states are only +3 or +4 for Biden, I think Trump has a shot at winning. We'll see what happens I guess.

We shall see Biden is in best position for a challenger since Carter I think.

Posted: **Sat Sep 26, 2020 1:50 pm**

If I'm Trump heading into these debates, I would focus on the following:

1) Hit Biden on trade policy. This is one area where Biden is vulnerable, and it's important in several battleground states.
2) Try to provoke gaffes or mumbling from Biden. Carefully study if there's anything which triggers this.
3) Try to survive the round of questions about COVID. Don't let Biden beat you over the head with this.

Posted: **Sat Sep 26, 2020 1:55 pm**

West Leas Oros 2 wrote:
Vassenor wrote:
Libs and greens keep needing there to be giant cross-party conspiracies to suppress them because the alternative is accepting that they aren't actually that popular.

They aren't popular because the establishment media takes every opportunity to feed lies about them and boost their hegemony.

Lies such as what?

Posted: **Sat Sep 26, 2020 1:56 pm**

West Leas Oros 2 wrote:
Vassenor wrote:
Libs and greens keep needing there to be giant cross-party conspiracies to suppress them because the alternative is accepting that they aren't actually that popular.

They aren't popular because the establishment media takes every opportunity to feed lies about them and boost their hegemony.

You have evidence of that claim?

Posted: **Sat Sep 26, 2020 2:04 pm**

Nuroblav wrote:
No State Here wrote:I don’t want to imagine a single person who posts here with that much power…

Fairly certain that there have NSers who were involved with political parties in some way, although I can't remember who exactly.

Considering this is a political discussion board, that makes sense, I would imagine people interested in politics enough to spend time discussing it here to also be interested enough to join a party and run for office

Posted: **Sat Sep 26, 2020 2:08 pm**

No State Here wrote:
Nuroblav wrote:Fairly certain that there have NSers who were involved with political parties in some way, although I can't remember who exactly.

Considering this is a political discussion board, that makes sense, I would imagine people interested in politics enough to spend time discussing it here to also be interested enough to join a party and run for office

One of the mods, The Archregimancy ran for election twice if i remember for the Liberal Democrats in the UK. And is still associated with the party as a member.

NationStates

2020 US General Election Thread IX: One Month and Counting