2020 US General Election Thread IX: One Month and Counting

[Cannot think of a name]

Here's Where The Candidates Stand Before The First Presidential Debate.

I think the First Debate won't have as big of an impact as some may say: we have far less undecided voters this go around, meaning both candidates have little room to grow their support more. However, that's more bad news for Trump given his base is smaller than Biden's. That said, Trump is bound to turn up the heat: he's bound to attack and hit Biden hard on his pre-VP Record as well as the moderator. Either way, this debate could make or break the candidates, especially if Biden gaffes badly or Trump comes off as irrational and paranoid.

The game here is literally only whether or not Biden manages to significantly garble something in a way that feeds the "senile" framing. Otherwise Donald will certainly get flustered and childish, but not bleed much support from it. It probably does still hurt him on the margins, but when he's already down, that's sort of neither her nor there. The debate is Biden's to lose, and he'd better not fuck it up.

It’s going to be an interesting game of ‘spot the campaign’ after the debates. The spin rooms are virtual now, essentially social media drones pushing out each campaign’s interpretation of the event. So in the days afterwards it’s a game of ‘is this a genuine response to the debate or a narrative pushed by the campaign’. In previous elections you had the handicap of hearing the campaign say the talking point into a microphone right after the debate.

Should be fun.

[San Lumen]

The game here is literally only whether or not Biden manages to significantly garble something in a way that feeds the "senile" framing. Otherwise Donald will certainly get flustered and childish, but not bleed much support from it. It probably does still hurt him on the margins, but when he's already down, that's sort of neither her nor there. The debate is Biden's to lose, and he'd better not fuck it up.

It’s going to be an interesting game of ‘spot the campaign’ after the debates. The spin rooms are virtual now, essentially social media drones pushing out each campaign’s interpretation of the event. So in the days afterwards it’s a game of ‘is this a genuine response to the debate or a narrative pushed by the campaign’. In previous elections you had the handicap of hearing the campaign say the talking point into a microphone right after the debate.

Should be fun.

I really hate all the virtual stuff. Won’t be watching it. I know who im voting for anyway. At least the debate won’t be virtual.

[Zurkerx]

Here's Where The Candidates Stand Before The First Presidential Debate.

I think the First Debate won't have as big of an impact as some may say: we have far less undecided voters this go around, meaning both candidates have little room to grow their support more. However, that's more bad news for Trump given his base is smaller than Biden's. That said, Trump is bound to turn up the heat: he's bound to attack and hit Biden hard on his pre-VP Record as well as the moderator. Either way, this debate could make or break the candidates, especially if Biden gaffes badly or Trump comes off as irrational and paranoid.

The game here is literally only whether or not Biden manages to significantly garble something in a way that feeds the "senile" framing. Otherwise Donald will certainly get flustered and childish, but not bleed much support from it. It probably does still hurt him on the margins, but when he's already down, that's sort of neither her nor there. The debate is Biden's to lose, and he'd better not fuck it up.

If Biden, dare I say it, even has a mediocre performance, then that should be enough to undermine and put to bed the "senile/dementia" image portrayed on him. I suspect both sides won't bleed much support though either side has a chance to solidify their base and standing. This is Biden's to lose but I'll be optimistically cautious on his prospects. But Trump will surely get flustered and the moderator (Wallace) is bound to push both of them hard.

[Ngelmish]

The game here is literally only whether or not Biden manages to significantly garble something in a way that feeds the "senile" framing. Otherwise Donald will certainly get flustered and childish, but not bleed much support from it. It probably does still hurt him on the margins, but when he's already down, that's sort of neither her nor there. The debate is Biden's to lose, and he'd better not fuck it up.

If Biden, dare I say it, even has a mediocre performance, then that should be enough to undermine and put to bed the "senile/dementia" image portrayed on him. I suspect both sides won't bleed much support though either side has a chance to solidify their base and standing. This is Biden's to lose but I'll be optimistically cautious on his prospects. But Trump will surely get flustered and the moderator (Wallace) is bound to push both of them hard.

I'm literally just holding out the hope that Donald gets so panicky that he blurts out, "You can't do that!" to something either Biden or Wallace says, just like he did in the Axios interview trainwreck. Please blatantly act like a 12 year old, Donald, please.

[Thermodolia]

An Ipsos poll has Biden up 12 nationally 50-38

I guess the talkie heads have decided that Pennsylvania gets to decide this time.

Well it’s not going to be much of a decision when Biden leads 12 points nationwide, Clinton had 14 points in 1996.

Besides Biden is leading by 3 in Georgia, which if he wins that state it’s over for Trump. There is no way Trump could win while losing Georgia

[Maineiacs]

Here's Where The Candidates Stand Before The First Presidential Debate.

I think the First Debate won't have as big of an impact as some may say: we have far less undecided voters this go around, meaning both candidates have little room to grow their support more. However, that's more bad news for Trump given his base is smaller than Biden's. That said, Trump is bound to turn up the heat: he's bound to attack and hit Biden hard on his pre-VP Record as well as the moderator. Either way, this debate could make or break the candidates, especially if Biden gaffes badly or Trump comes off as irrational and paranoid.

There's a distinct possibility that both these occur.

[San Lumen]

I guess the talkie heads have decided that Pennsylvania gets to decide this time.

Well it’s not going to be much of a decision when Biden leads 12 points nationwide, Clinton had 14 points in 1996.

Besides Biden is leading by 3 in Georgia, which if he wins that state it’s over for Trump. There is no way Trump could win while losing Georgia

we will see what further polls bring but being at 50 percent in a poll is very good for any candidate. Warnock is also surging right now. Carter's endorsement might have helped.

Hoping Ossoff wins outright. Its going to be very close though.

[Vassenor]

I do admit many people had hope when Deng was in power, and to some extent he did reform and move on from the Maoist tyranny, but his successors ruined everything and now Winnie is LARPing as the second coming of Mao, doing everything from sterilizing innocent Uyghurs to gassing protestors in Hong Kong.

I always find it amusing when the same people condemning America police brutality turn a blind eye and/or defend the same things happening in Hong Kong, because "America bad China good."

I find it amusing when the people who claim to have a problem with Chinese authoritarianism wholeheartedly endorse American authoritarianism because its figurehead gives lip service to the idea of being against China but is by all accounts incredibly inspired by what Xi does.

And who's definition of "against China" basically involves removing any means the US has to counter Chinese hegemony in the Pacific.

[Major-Tom]

Here's Where The Candidates Stand Before The First Presidential Debate.

I think the First Debate won't have as big of an impact as some may say: we have far less undecided voters this go around, meaning both candidates have little room to grow their support more. However, that's more bad news for Trump given his base is smaller than Biden's. That said, Trump is bound to turn up the heat: he's bound to attack and hit Biden hard on his pre-VP Record as well as the moderator. Either way, this debate could make or break the candidates, especially if Biden gaffes badly or Trump comes off as irrational and paranoid.

The game here is literally only whether or not Biden manages to significantly garble something in a way that feeds the "senile" framing. Otherwise Donald will certainly get flustered and childish, but not bleed much support from it. It probably does still hurt him on the margins, but when he's already down, that's sort of neither her nor there. The debate is Biden's to lose, and he'd better not fuck it up.

Nail, meet head.

[Zurkerx]

If Biden, dare I say it, even has a mediocre performance, then that should be enough to undermine and put to bed the "senile/dementia" image portrayed on him. I suspect both sides won't bleed much support though either side has a chance to solidify their base and standing. This is Biden's to lose but I'll be optimistically cautious on his prospects. But Trump will surely get flustered and the moderator (Wallace) is bound to push both of them hard.

I'm literally just holding out the hope that Donald gets so panicky that he blurts out, "You can't do that!" to something either Biden or Wallace says, just like he did in the Axios interview trainwreck. Please blatantly act like a 12 year old, Donald, please.

Well, I kind of expect that to happen tonight though he may have the temperament to hold back, for a short while anyway. He'll blow steam on Twitter. But given he lies so much, all Biden should do is mention in the beginning that Trump lies constantly and well, not fact-check him on every single thing; I believe the latter is his plan since that will consume too much time and give some form of credence to Trump's claims. However, if he does have a train wreck like he did with Axios, and this type of debate is not his style, he will likely struggle to get those undecided voters.

The bigger problem is not just smaller levels of undecided voters: it's the fact that these undecided voters, I think a decent portion, aren't going to vote for Trump regardless. They're only undecided because they aren't sure whether to vote for Biden, third party, or stay home. Thus, this could be an opportunity for Biden to draw said voters closer to him; I think that's possible in the second debate, the townhall one.

[San Lumen]

https://twitter.com/TylerDinucci/status ... 95713?s=20
New poll from civiqs has the exact same presidential numbers as quinnipiac and also includes numbers for a almost certain runoff in the Georgia Senate special election
Biden: 50
Trump: 47

Ossoff: 48
Perdue: 46

Warnock: 38
Collins: 25
Loeffler: 21
Lieberman: 5
Tarver: 7

Simulated run-off:

Warnock: 49
Loeffler: 39

Warnock: 49
Collins: 44

[Zurkerx]

Well it’s not going to be much of a decision when Biden leads 12 points nationwide, Clinton had 14 points in 1996.

Besides Biden is leading by 3 in Georgia, which if he wins that state it’s over for Trump. There is no way Trump could win while losing Georgia

we will see what further polls bring but being at 50 percent in a poll is very good for any candidate. Warnock is also surging right now. Carter's endorsement might have helped.

Hoping Ossoff wins outright. Its going to be very close though.

That's interesting to see Carter, a moderate, endorse someone like Warnock. Hell even Obama endorsed him, which I also didn't know about. So I think the endorsements of two former Presidents helps bigly.

[San Lumen]

we will see what further polls bring but being at 50 percent in a poll is very good for any candidate. Warnock is also surging right now. Carter's endorsement might have helped.

Hoping Ossoff wins outright. Its going to be very close though.

That's interesting to see Carter, a moderate, endorse someone like Warnock. Hell even Obama endorsed him, which I also didn't know about. So I think the endorsements of two former Presidents helps bigly.

Definitely. I did not expect those numbers for Warnock in the runoff. Its possible but unlikely he could win outright by getting 50.

[Cordel One]

Funnily enough I have actually personally lived in the People's Republic of China, under its most powerful leader since Mao, and didn't really see cartoonishly evil mass murder so much as the banal actions typical of any Imperialist state.

I do admit many people had hope when Deng was in power, and to some extent he did reform and move on from the Maoist tyranny, but his successors ruined everything and now Winnie is LARPing as the second coming of Mao, doing everything from sterilizing innocent Uyghurs to gassing protestors in Hong Kong.

I always find it amusing when the same people condemning America police brutality turn a blind eye and/or defend the same things happening in Hong Kong, because "America bad China good."

PWA wasn't doing that but it's true that it's amusing when people do, Aureumterra. Similarly, the people who glorify the Hong Kong riots but not the American ones because "America good China bad".

[San Lumen]

I do admit many people had hope when Deng was in power, and to some extent he did reform and move on from the Maoist tyranny, but his successors ruined everything and now Winnie is LARPing as the second coming of Mao, doing everything from sterilizing innocent Uyghurs to gassing protestors in Hong Kong.

I always find it amusing when the same people condemning America police brutality turn a blind eye and/or defend the same things happening in Hong Kong, because "America bad China good."

PWA wasn't doing that but it's true that it's amusing when people do, Auremterra. Similarly, the people who glorify the Hong Kong riots but not the American ones because "America good China bad".

What does this have to do with the topic?

[Kazarogkai]

Shows the lack of enthusiasm most voters have in Biden. Low enthusiasm, low turnout. Honestly the primaries and early voting are probably showing false signs. Maybe before covid voter turnout was going to be high, now though? Can't see it going above 50% this time around, worse case scenario 40%.

Or not.

The poll has a B/C rating from 538. Also the low amount of undecideds is showing that enthusiasm is quite high.

Also a lot of the primaries and early voting where held during COVID so I’d say that Covid has zero effect at this point

Or that opinions have simply crystalized among voters. lack of undecides simply means people have already made up their mind long ago, not their actual likelihood of voting. Trump is the type of guy one might say you either hate or you love him imperatively with near zero in between. Hence the lack of undecideds is neither surprising nor much relevant. It was inevitable due to the hardening of Partisan attitudes post 2016.

Covid didn't start really biting till April when the primary was for all intents and purposes over. There was only so much that Covid could do to change the results by that point. Reason why it will matter now is due to the extreme voter repression that is inevitably going to result from it. Ultimately this election by all indications is going to be more based on who can turn out the vote. Trump has to maintain his base, Biden has to grow from Hilary. Which one is harder? Hard to say.

[Kowani]

Biden and Harris just released their tax returns.

[The Black Forrest]

Biden and Harris just released their tax returns.

Don’t worry. Trump will after the audits are done.

[Great Confederacy of Commonwealth States]

It's a strange question to ask who will win. It depends on what you want to see in a debate.

Biden will win the arguments. Of course, Trump cannot form a coherent sentence, let alone form a coherent argument. All his arguments are made up by his voters and staff afterwards, something he cannot bring to bear during the debate, only afterwards. Trump will make a fool of himself, and no-one who has an interesting in an actual debate on the merits will be convinced by his performance. Of course, those people were never convinced by him in the first place.

However, Trump will win his own voters regardless. He will repeat his sloguns, sound sure, say whatever his base wants to hear. And he will win their hearts, again. It's not about the contents or the rationale behind his policy. He just needs a camera pointed at his face in an adversarial setting, and he will absolutely destroy Biden, not with reason, but just by his ability to produce mouth sounds. In the eyes of his base, Trump has already won, and he just needs to be steadfast in Biden's presence to beat him.

So, both are going to win, in their own way. Neither are going to convince anyone. You cannot reason your way out of ur-fascism, which is what Biden will try to do. And Trump knows that.

[Corrian]

Refugees from tyranny agree: Authoritarian threat in America now is from the left

If my accounts of family members under Mao hasn’t convinced you, maybe refugees from Eastern Bloc countries will? Then again, I shouldn’t expect too much from the same people who apologize for Castro

Making any argument that the "Real authoritarian threat is the left" when Trump is literally the authoritarian dictator fascist wannabe that's IN OFFICE RIGHT NOW is such a fucking joke.

[Telconi]

Biden and Harris just released their tax returns.

I've never really seen the point to the tax return thing to be honest. It's always stricken me as an akward virtue signal of transparency.

[Telconi]

Refugees from tyranny agree: Authoritarian threat in America now is from the left

If my accounts of family members under Mao hasn’t convinced you, maybe refugees from Eastern Bloc countries will? Then again, I shouldn’t expect too much from the same people who apologize for Castro

Making any argument that the "Real authoritarian threat is the left" when Trump is literally the authoritarian dictator fascist wannabe that's IN OFFICE RIGHT NOW is such a fucking joke.

Being in office doesnt make someone a threat.

[The Black Forrest]

Biden and Harris just released their tax returns.

I've never really seen the point to the tax return thing to be honest. It's always stricken me as an akward virtue signal of transparency.

Would you trust a President who was extremely in debt?

[Valrifell]

Biden and Harris just released their tax returns.

I've never really seen the point to the tax return thing to be honest. It's always stricken me as an akward virtue signal of transparency.

Well, it all started when people realized Nixon wasn't paying his taxes, so the tradition was started to make yourself look not as bad as Nixon. A virtue signal, sure, but one with a bar almost trivially easy to step over, which is why it's been so popular for so long.

The goal was "be less slimy that Richard Nixon". Trump managed to fuck it up.

[Telconi]

I've never really seen the point to the tax return thing to be honest. It's always stricken me as an akward virtue signal of transparency.

Would you trust a President who was extremely in debt?

No.