Coronavirus May Have Reached US Earlier Than Thought

[Godular]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/15/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html

So, apparently there are studies starting to pop up that suggest that the Coronavirus might have made it to US shores as early as December. Health experts are saying that isn't possible, as such would have been too soon for it to have traveled so far.

On a purely anecdotal level, I'm thinking these studies are highlighting a situation that might actually be the case. I teach at a rural school in Texas, and during the Holiday Vacation there was an outbreak of some kind of respiratory ailment that left the doctors wholly flummoxed. Flu tests came back negative. Tests to check for bacterial infections largely came back negative. Whatever it was, it was not detectable by any tests available in that area and even San Antonio seemed to be wondering what the fuck was going on.

It was a royal bastard, too. When I got it, I was bedridden for three days, which for me is a significant accomplishment. I have a ROBUST immune system, and things that would knock others out for many days would give me a mere case of the sniffles and an octave drop in my voice for a couple weeks. This THING nailed a good half of the school district by the time school resumed, and we actually had difficulty finding enough subs for the teachers who took sick. I counted myself somewhat lucky that it hit me during the break, but I know of at least 8 of my students at that time had a similar ailment.

So I'm kinda thinking that maybe it did happen. The Coronavirus might have gotten out much earlier than anticipated simply because nobody thought to look for it at the time, and it might have started spreading well before even China thought there might be a problem.

Whuddabout you lot, though? You think this was just some sort of freaky flu, or do you think we might have been in pandemic mode LONG before we even started to worry about it?

[Magical North Korea]

It is possible. Some Harvard Medical School professions said that China detected Coronavirus in December, but it was may have been spreading as early as late September.
However, this is only from satellite images of hospital demand, and not based on actually detecting it.

[Major-Tom]

Corona knocked me out too, OP. It was a scary situation.

It makes perfect sense it was here early as December. There were reports that it was in Italy around that time, and they found that out through none other than sewer samples. My mom's old friend in Kansas caught what the docs said was pneumonia around New Years and passed away, months later, it was determined the cause was COVID.

It just took time for us to realize it was within our borders, which is reminiscent of every pandemic, really.

[Geneviev]

It could have been possible, but then I wonder why it took so long for us to notice that anything was wrong.

[Godular]

It could have been possible, but then I wonder why it took so long for us to notice that anything was wrong.

In all likelihood, it simply would not have occurred to us to look at that time.

[Kombinita Socialisma Demokratio]

One of my relatives had pneumonia in December, and one family member thinks it was the same virus (at least they believe in the virus, unlike some other relatives). However, I doubt it highly, because we are rural east coast, and the relative coughed right in my face while sick and no one else became ill. I haven't been sick since April 2019.

[Geneviev]

It could have been possible, but then I wonder why it took so long for us to notice that anything was wrong.

In all likelihood, it simply would not have occurred to us to look at that time.

We didn't even start social distancing for months afterward, and didn't see a huge spike in cases.

[Kombinita Socialisma Demokratio]

In all likelihood, it simply would not have occurred to us to look at that time.

We didn't even start social distancing for months afterward, and didn't see a huge spike in cases.

There was however, a slight increase in excessive deaths around the world, before many areas began to seriously test.

[Godular]

In all likelihood, it simply would not have occurred to us to look at that time.

We didn't even start social distancing for months afterward, and didn't see a huge spike in cases.

It's something of a reversal of Trump's comment about 'If we do more testing, we get more cases!'

If we don't do any testing, we don't have any cases to put on the ledger. We might not have 'seen' a huge spike in cases because at the time we didn't think to look, or that it might have already been here.

[Kombinita Socialisma Demokratio]

We didn't even start social distancing for months afterward, and didn't see a huge spike in cases.

It's something of a reversal of Trump's comment about 'If we do more testing, we get more cases!'

If we don't do any testing, we don't have any cases to put on the ledger. We might not have 'seen' a huge spike in cases because at the time we didn't think to look, or that it might have already been here.

Maybe eventually there will be enough random samples of blood-based antibody tests to determine what proportion of the population contracted the virus, to very good certainty.

---

This is not as related, but following the same logic about cases being halved by halving testing, I got the data from worldometers on the tests/1M and cases/1M to guestimate an upper bound of a confidence interval (with the reported cases being the lower bound). The excel sheet (actually a librecalc sheet) also built in a way to (arbitrarily) reduce the standard deviation of the distribution of the upper bound and offset its mean. Without adjustments, USA was a little bit better than average, and close to half of the world's cases/1M.

[Godular]

It's something of a reversal of Trump's comment about 'If we do more testing, we get more cases!'

If we don't do any testing, we don't have any cases to put on the ledger. We might not have 'seen' a huge spike in cases because at the time we didn't think to look, or that it might have already been here.

Maybe eventually there will be enough random samples of blood-based antibody tests to determine what proportion of the population contracted the virus, to very good certainty.

Mayhap.

On another note, I feel it should be necessary to point out that I’m still taking all possible precautions regarding social distancing, given the fact that the coronavirus romping about right now seems to be a slightly different strain than the original one. Reinfections are very much possible and recorded instances do exist.

[Kombinita Socialisma Demokratio]

Maybe eventually there will be enough random samples of blood-based antibody tests to determine what proportion of the population contracted the virus, to very good certainty.

Mayhap.

On another note, I feel it should be necessary to point out that I’m still taking all possible precautions regarding social distancing, given the fact that the coronavirus romping about right now seems to be a slightly different strain than the original one. Reinfections are very much possible and recorded instances do exist.

Thank you for doing your part like/as a responsible person.

[Godular]

Mayhap.

On another note, I feel it should be necessary to point out that I’m still taking all possible precautions regarding social distancing, given the fact that the coronavirus romping about right now seems to be a slightly different strain than the original one. Reinfections are very much possible and recorded instances do exist.

Thank you for doing your part like/as a responsible person.

I‘ve already danced with death three more times than I would have liked over the past two years. I ain’t gonna set foot on that dance floor again, if I can help it.

[Kowani]

Thank you for doing your part like/as a responsible person.

I‘ve already danced with death three more times than I would have liked over the past two years. I ain’t gonna set foot on that dance floor again, if I can help it.

But can you Waltz with War?

[Borderlands of Rojava]

Why didn't you put this in the covid thread?

[Borderlands of Rojava]

Thank you for doing your part like/as a responsible person.

I‘ve already danced with death three more times than I would have liked over the past two years. I ain’t gonna set foot on that dance floor again, if I can help it.

I've almost died so many times in my life that I can't even count it. Most of those times either involved car crashes or attempted murder.

[Godular]

Why didn't you put this in the covid thread?

Looked around before posting, somehow completely missed its existence.

Go figure.