The Quad Alliance: Asia’s NATO?

[The Hindustani State]

Fair, them we are not in so much disagreement. The key here though is I do kit want to risk it. I do not believe the PRC would conquer all India per se, but could possibly hit it hard enough that it could leave India unable to stand up. The PRC does not need to match into New Delhi (which is not what it plans to do). But if the PRC can seize substantial territories along the border, dominate it economically and politically, and leave it weak and afraid to fight back, then it can focus all its resources against us in the Pacific. The PRC wants to dominate both the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and it it can control one, it can them focus everything on taking the other.

The ultimate goal is to keep the PRC contained in both directions, contained from spreading East and South.
This is the real key, because if it cannot expand East and and South it will go West and North, putting it in conflict with Russia. And leaving our place in the Pacific secure.

India is already unstable as it is, with millions of different ethnic groups within their Country I'm surprised they have even lasted this long without falling into Civil War. Perhaps we could fiance India and maybe, maybe, with the approval of the US Congress and India send military units to aide them in their fight but outright allying with such an unstable country makes me nervous. I don't want a situation where India collapses and our military units are surrounded on all sides by various rebel grounds armed with Indian Weaponry and then having the People's Liberation Army closing in with no major resistance to them.

We are all united by Hinduism, and a history together under the British

[Novus America]

While China needs to be contained, I don't think the answer to defeating China is just outsource all of our shit to India. That's just going to create this same issue in 40 years.

Well not necessarily, as India does not have the “Middle Kingdom” attitude of the PRC.
It does not have dreams of ruling both the Indian Ocean and Pacific. Just wants to be the dominant power in the Indian Ocean which is not a problem for us. The Indian Ocean is not essential for us. They can have it. After all historically the British Raj was the dominant power in that region, not us.

But I do agree that simply moving all manufacturing to India is not the solution. Things like Steel, aluminum, shipbuilding , many electronics, rare earth elements must be returned to North America.
By sanctions, tariffs and subsidies.

But non essential crap like holiday decorations and that stuff can be move to India, Indonesia, Vietnam, etc.

Let India make the non essential high labor stuff, fine. But we need to be self sufficient in strategic industries.
And not have even the non essential stuff in just one place. India can and should play a major role in the world economy but nothing like the PRC can ever be allowed, ever again.

[Bombadil]

While China needs to be contained, I don't think the answer to defeating China is just outsource all of our shit to India. That's just going to create this same issue in 40 years.

Well not necessarily, as India does not have the “Middle Kingdom” attitude of the PRC.
It does not have dreams of ruling both the Indian Ocean and Pacific. Just wants to be the dominant power in the Indian Ocean which is not a problem for us. The Indian Ocean is not essential for us. They can have it. After all historically the British Raj was the dominant power in that region, not us.

But I do agree that simply moving all manufacturing to India is not the solution. Things like Steel, aluminum, shipbuilding , many electronics, rare earth elements must be returned to North America.
By sanctions, tariffs and subsidies.

But non essential crap like holiday decorations and that stuff can be move to India, Indonesia, Vietnam, etc.

Let India make the non essential high labor stuff, fine. But we need to be self sufficient in strategic industries.
And not have even the non essential stuff in just one place. India can and should play a major role in the world economy but nothing like the PRC can ever be allowed, ever again.

Actually, especially given the pandemic, the best idea is to spread manufacturing across a variety of countries, rather than pool everything in China. I think that's been a big lesson for companies recently beyond political reasons.

Having said that, more broadly, it's hard to discern what the CCP is up to. On the one hand one might think, given the paranoia, they're afraid of an attack and are therefore bulking up their borders, that is the recent activity is mainly a defensive approach. The downside is that this activity is driving response from everywhere else and thus leading down a dangerous road.

On the other it might be an aggressive move, with eyes firmly fixed on Taiwan. Aside from political concerns Taiwan also acts as a massive aircraft carrier on the border of China. From a military point of view it's a major threat.

If it's the first then we deal with it one way, find means to de-escalate their paranoia and avoid conflict. If it's the second then we need to beef up protection and ward off the threat.

The problem is.. no one knows. I was speaking to the political security person at a major US finance house, who obviously has ties and history back into the US government and is supposed to advise political threats in Asia to the firm.. he said no one has any idea of what China is up to and therefore how to react and so best to plan for the worst.

The fact is that if China is on the second path then what do they know that we don't, why are they so confident to set up conflict, which they wouldn't do if they thought they would lose. Either they are over-confident or they know something we don't.

It's a real issue right now, but it's all about Taiwan.

[Novus America]

Well not necessarily, as India does not have the “Middle Kingdom” attitude of the PRC.
It does not have dreams of ruling both the Indian Ocean and Pacific. Just wants to be the dominant power in the Indian Ocean which is not a problem for us. The Indian Ocean is not essential for us. They can have it. After all historically the British Raj was the dominant power in that region, not us.

But I do agree that simply moving all manufacturing to India is not the solution. Things like Steel, aluminum, shipbuilding , many electronics, rare earth elements must be returned to North America.
By sanctions, tariffs and subsidies.

But non essential crap like holiday decorations and that stuff can be move to India, Indonesia, Vietnam, etc.

Let India make the non essential high labor stuff, fine. But we need to be self sufficient in strategic industries.
And not have even the non essential stuff in just one place. India can and should play a major role in the world economy but nothing like the PRC can ever be allowed, ever again.

Actually, especially given the pandemic, the best idea is to spread manufacturing across a variety of countries, rather than pool everything in China. I think that's been a big lesson for companies recently beyond political reasons.

Having said that, more broadly, it's hard to discern what the CCP is up to. On the one hand one might think, given the paranoia, they're afraid of an attack and are therefore bulking up their borders, that is the recent activity is mainly a defensive approach. The downside is that this activity is driving response from everywhere else and thus leading down a dangerous road.

On the other it might be an aggressive move, with eyes firmly fixed on Taiwan. Aside from political concerns Taiwan also acts as a massive aircraft carrier on the border of China. From a military point of view it's a major threat.

If it's the first then we deal with it one way, find means to de-escalate their paranoia and avoid conflict. If it's the second then we need to beef up protection and ward off the threat.

The problem is.. no one knows. I was speaking to the political security person at a major US finance house, who obviously has ties and history back into the US government and is supposed to advise political threats in Asia to the firm.. he said no one has any idea of what China is up to and therefore how to react and so best to plan for the worst.

The fact is that if China is on the second path then what do they know that we don't, why are they so confident to set up conflict, which they wouldn't do if they thought they would lose. Either they are over-confident or they know something we don't.

It's a real issue right now, but it's all about Taiwan.

I agree in the first part, we can never allow something like the PRC again. Concentrating all global manufacturing one in place, no matter how benevolent (and the PRC is obviously the epitome of malevolent) is still a mistake. So although India can and should play a big role in high labor light industries, it should not dominant them completely, as we all manufacturing moved out of the PRC (and it must be removed ASAP) should be more even distributed across multiple countries, including a India, but not only India.

So that way one country does not have such power.

On the last part though, tariffs and sanctions, and completely shutting them out of our exports works in both cases.
Because they less we buy from them, the less money they have to spend on military purposes, and the less military advantage they have.

[Kiu Ghesik]

Actually, especially given the pandemic, the best idea is to spread manufacturing across a variety of countries, rather than pool everything in China. I think that's been a big lesson for companies recently beyond political reasons.

Having said that, more broadly, it's hard to discern what the CCP is up to. On the one hand one might think, given the paranoia, they're afraid of an attack and are therefore bulking up their borders, that is the recent activity is mainly a defensive approach. The downside is that this activity is driving response from everywhere else and thus leading down a dangerous road.

On the other it might be an aggressive move, with eyes firmly fixed on Taiwan. Aside from political concerns Taiwan also acts as a massive aircraft carrier on the border of China. From a military point of view it's a major threat.

If it's the first then we deal with it one way, find means to de-escalate their paranoia and avoid conflict. If it's the second then we need to beef up protection and ward off the threat.

The problem is.. no one knows. I was speaking to the political security person at a major US finance house, who obviously has ties and history back into the US government and is supposed to advise political threats in Asia to the firm.. he said no one has any idea of what China is up to and therefore how to react and so best to plan for the worst.

The fact is that if China is on the second path then what do they know that we don't, why are they so confident to set up conflict, which they wouldn't do if they thought they would lose. Either they are over-confident or they know something we don't.

It's a real issue right now, but it's all about Taiwan.

I agree in the first part, we can never allow something like the PRC again. Concentrating all global manufacturing one in place, no matter how benevolent (and the PRC is obviously the epitome of malevolent) is still a mistake. So although India can and should play a big role in high labor light industries, it should not dominant them completely, as we all manufacturing moved out of the PRC (and it must be removed ASAP) should be more even distributed across multiple countries, including a India, but not only India.

So that way one country does not have such power.

On the last part though, tariffs and sanctions, and completely shutting them out of our exports works in both cases.
Because they less we buy from them, the less money they have to spend on military purposes, and the less military advantage they have.

But there's lots of sweatshops in SE Asia too, not just China.

And one of the first things we learned in macroeconomics was that groups specializing in what they're best at is better for the economy as a whole, as it allows for greater production of goods.

[Arlenton]

Sounds like a good idea. I'd name it something like Asia Pacific Treaty Organization (APTO) though.

[Bombadil]

I agree in the first part, we can never allow something like the PRC again. Concentrating all global manufacturing one in place, no matter how benevolent (and the PRC is obviously the epitome of malevolent) is still a mistake. So although India can and should play a big role in high labor light industries, it should not dominant them completely, as we all manufacturing moved out of the PRC (and it must be removed ASAP) should be more even distributed across multiple countries, including a India, but not only India.

So that way one country does not have such power.

On the last part though, tariffs and sanctions, and completely shutting them out of our exports works in both cases.
Because they less we buy from them, the less money they have to spend on military purposes, and the less military advantage they have.

But there's lots of sweatshops in SE Asia too, not just China.

And one of the first things we learned in macroeconomics was that groups specializing in what they're best at is better for the economy as a whole, as it allows for greater production of goods.

To be honest a lot of manufacturing can be automated and so can be managed from anywhere, it's more a question of taxes, distribution channels, property costs.. sweatshops are an issue of throwing a population at an something over technology. China was able to set up SEZs and throw cheap population at global manufacturing and the world bought it with the idea that greater capital drives greater democracy and rights.

Xi Jinping has specifically closed that off, driving his particular ideology and need for One China, they're having protests in Inner Mongolia now as they stop classes in Mongolian and have everything in Mandarin, much as they want to do in HK, and have done at kindergarten levels.

That One China ideology also requires the reunification with Taiwan. The world has somewhat let the people of HK to be aggressively brought into direct Chinese control but we can't let it happen to Taiwan.

[Novus America]

I agree in the first part, we can never allow something like the PRC again. Concentrating all global manufacturing one in place, no matter how benevolent (and the PRC is obviously the epitome of malevolent) is still a mistake. So although India can and should play a big role in high labor light industries, it should not dominant them completely, as we all manufacturing moved out of the PRC (and it must be removed ASAP) should be more even distributed across multiple countries, including a India, but not only India.

So that way one country does not have such power.

On the last part though, tariffs and sanctions, and completely shutting them out of our exports works in both cases.
Because they less we buy from them, the less money they have to spend on military purposes, and the less military advantage they have.

But there's lots of sweatshops in SE Asia too, not just China.

And one of the first things we learned in macroeconomics was that groups specializing in what they're best at is better for the economy as a whole, as it allows for greater production of goods.

Although the rest of SE Asia does, nobody has manufacturing like the PRC, which is by far the largest manufacturer.
It still is a bad idea.

That last part also assumes that the only goal is making money. And ignores national security concerns amongst other things.
Also Adam Smith and the like assumed that for that to work all countries are the same in regulations, tariffs, wages, etc and no subsidies. Not applicable IRL.
PRC manufacturing is NOT free market based, it is based on massive protectionism and subsidies by the PRC government. The are only “the best” at things because their government supports their manufacturing the most.

Simply undercutting the other by having the worst environmental and labor protections also might lower the sticker costs of goods, but creates a perverse incentive to destroy the environment and treat workers like shit, thus the benefit of lower sticker prices is not worth the externalities of stagnant or declining real wages and dying from pollution.

So that “competitive advantage” argument does not work here. IRL the advantage comes not from inherent factors, but from government action. If you are not competitive in an area, you can change that through government action, on most cases.

[Domerstresseistan]

SEATO 2: Electric Boogaloo

[Bombadil]

SEATO 2: Electric Boogaloo

Essentially, given China's growing aggressive rhetoric around Taiwan, and their beefing up of security around their borders, it seems pretty clear they're setting up for reunification. It's deeply ingrained in the CCP psyche given the justification for their rule is ending the 100 years of shame and bringing unity back to China, the one fragment remaining is Taiwan.. 2021 is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the CCP and many commentators believe it's Xi Jinping's intention to bring Taiwan into the fold by then. Given Taiwan's clear direction away from China this will have to be done by force.

[Domerstresseistan]

SEATO 2: Electric Boogaloo

Essentially, given China's growing aggressive rhetoric around Taiwan, and their beefing up of security around their borders, it seems pretty clear they're setting up for reunification. It's deeply ingrained in the CCP psyche given the justification for their rule is ending the 100 years of shame and bringing unity back to China, the one fragment remaining is Taiwan.. 2021 is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the CCP and many commentators believe it's Xi Jinping's intention to bring Taiwan into the fold by then. Given Taiwan's clear direction away from China this will have to be done by force.

I'm predicting that this new SEATO will have Taiwan in as the ROC, just to rile up the CCP even more. Just hoping that Trump and the other major leaders tread this water carefully down the road if they're going to contain a country as gargantuan as the PRC.

[Novus America]

SEATO 2: Electric Boogaloo

Essentially, given China's growing aggressive rhetoric around Taiwan, and their beefing up of security around their borders, it seems pretty clear they're setting up for reunification. It's deeply ingrained in the CCP psyche given the justification for their rule is ending the 100 years of shame and bringing unity back to China, the one fragment remaining is Taiwan.. 2021 is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the CCP and many commentators believe it's Xi Jinping's intention to bring Taiwan into the fold by then. Given Taiwan's clear direction away from China this will have to be done by force.

Well Taiwan is not the only “historically Chinese” territory they want, just top on the list
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news ... -50-years/

Taiwan is just first of the six, with the earliest planned attack time (2020-2025). Although it should be noted with the attacks on India and the Spratly Islands they may not go in this exact order, as one operation each, and might start doing bits of one before the other.

[Domerstresseistan]

Essentially, given China's growing aggressive rhetoric around Taiwan, and their beefing up of security around their borders, it seems pretty clear they're setting up for reunification. It's deeply ingrained in the CCP psyche given the justification for their rule is ending the 100 years of shame and bringing unity back to China, the one fragment remaining is Taiwan.. 2021 is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the CCP and many commentators believe it's Xi Jinping's intention to bring Taiwan into the fold by then. Given Taiwan's clear direction away from China this will have to be done by force.

Well Taiwan is not the only “historically Chinese” territory they want, just top on the list
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news ... -50-years/

And I'm just gonna sit back and laugh at the CCP stans on Western Twitter for screeching about "Imperialism and Colonialism" by the west, not knowing their master is doing quite the same thing albeit under the red banner.

[Carnife]

China is certain to forcibly annex Taiwan in the near future. Thus, the US must forge a alliance to counterbalance and ensure that US has an insurance policy to keep China out of South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the South China Sea.