Possible Revolution in Belarus after Rigged election

[Thermodolia]

Perhaps step in and force Russia to leave the country.

What with?

A strongly worded letter and a finger wagging from Merkel

[Dresderstan]

What you'd be advocating for is a Belarusian version of suicidal terrorists willing to die for their country/cause, and be killed by Russian mercs and Belarusian military, your ideas of overthrowing this regime is patheitc and weak and will not come to fruition.

So the people should just accept a blatantly rigged election and continue to live under a monster?

Well I don't see you doing anything other than standing atop your ivory tower bitching about this and doing nothing. You want to help, go over there and do something, like fight along with them.

[Novus America]

Belarus has a universal conscription based army, which are often pretty unreliable for putting down uprisings, given the average random conscript is often reluctant to shoot their own people.
If a large portion of the population wants him gone, a large portion of people in the army probably do as well.

Yes, but how large is the question. It needs to be an overwhelming majority, like in 1991.

Fair point. I am not saying either way. I lack enough reliable data to make any certain prediction. I think it is most likely he survives this, he is if anything quite the political survivor, but these things can suddenly and unexpectedly happen too. Very few people predicted Zimbabwe for example. And then he was gone.

Definitely worth following, but I am not making any certain statements on the outcome.
I cannot gauge this for sure, although he is quite effective at clinging to power.

[San Lumen]

So the people should just accept a blatantly rigged election and continue to live under a monster?

Well I don't see you doing anything other than standing atop your ivory tower bitching about this and doing nothing. You want to help, go over there and do something, like fight along with them.

what a stupid thing to say.

[Aureumterra]

What you'd be advocating for is a Belarusian version of suicidal terrorists willing to die for their country/cause, and be killed by Russian mercs and Belarusian military, your ideas of overthrowing this regime is patheitc and weak and will not come to fruition.

So the people should just accept a blatantly rigged election and continue to live under a monster?

In a perfect world, no

The world isn’t perfect

[Major-Tom]

Toppling Lukashenko would be for the greater good. Hes a monster.

At the expense of thousands of people who will die in the process and will most likely fail.

Okay, this is kinda for everyone here, but really it’s up to the Belarussians. They wanna go all in and try to topple this guy, knowing that it’ll be painful? Great, that’s bold. They don’t wanna risk it? Totally understandable.

It should be this basic for this event.

[Neanderthaland]

I linked non state-sanctioned polling and I’ll have to go back and retrieve a second source, but I think an additional poll had him around 30%, a little higher than the 24% I linked.

I don’t doubt that Lukashenko was once fiercely popular. He definitely was, after all Belarus weathered the 1990s crisis very well compared to neighbors, has a solid safety net etc etc. But familiarity breeds contempt, and when you’re the head of state for 26 years and only maintain it with a massive security apparatus and human rights abuses, soon even the most loyal of supporters will turn on you and demand change.

Even so i hope he to see this grow into a full fledged revolution and the people rebel against the army and security forces and start attacking them and throw stuff at government buildings and his palace. I want to see what happened in a Amazon Prime series based on a popular book series occur in Belarus.

But just imagine how terrible that would be for the Belarusian economy! Surely there is nothing more important?

[Dresderstan]

Well I don't see you doing anything other than standing atop your ivory tower bitching about this and doing nothing. You want to help, go over there and do something, like fight along with them.

what a stupid thing to say.

So has everything you said, it's been fallacy and fantasy with you.

[Punished UMN]

What you'd be advocating for is a Belarusian version of suicidal terrorists willing to die for their country/cause, and be killed by Russian mercs and Belarusian military, your ideas of overthrowing this regime is patheitc and weak and will not come to fruition.

So the people should just accept a blatantly rigged election and continue to live under a monster?

Lumen, what was better, the Syrian civil war or an alternate timeline in which the protests against Assad stop?

Let's assume half the military wants him gone, that's about as much as Syria in 2011. Lukashenko still has bombers, he still has tanks, he still has machine guns. Unless the military joins in overwhelmingly, this is very bad.

[San Lumen]

So the people should just accept a blatantly rigged election and continue to live under a monster?

In a perfect world, no

The world isn’t perfect

what do you suggest?

Even so i hope he to see this grow into a full fledged revolution and the people rebel against the army and security forces and start attacking them and throw stuff at government buildings and his palace. I want to see what happened in a Amazon Prime series based on a popular book series occur in Belarus.

But just imagine how terrible that would be for the Belarusian economy! Surely there is nothing more important?

The economy doesnt matter here and besides hes utterly destroyed it.

[Dresderstan]

In a perfect world, no

The world isn’t perfect

what do you suggest?

But just imagine how terrible that would be for the Belarusian economy! Surely there is nothing more important?

The economy doesnt matter here and besides hes utterly destroyed it.

Show your work.

[Novus America]

I don;'t think the EU is going to stand for that.

What would they do about it?

Merkel does nothing because she is terrified of Russia.

[Dresderstan]

What would they do about it?

Merkel does nothing because she is terrified of Russia.

Nobody will do nothing because pickles or something. It's all empty threats of tariffs that do nothing at all, look at Russia after Ukraine.

[Neanderthaland]

But just imagine how terrible that would be for the Belarusian economy! Surely there is nothing more important?

The economy doesnt matter here and besides hes utterly destroyed it.

But how will yesmen pay their bills?

[Thermodolia]

What would they do about it?

Merkel does nothing because she is terrified of Russia.

No that’s not exactly true. She’ll send them a strongly worded letter telling them not to do that, again

[San Lumen]

The economy doesnt matter here and besides hes utterly destroyed it.

But how will yesmen pay their bills?

Yesmen? You mean his people? who cares about them

Belorussians drag this monster out of his palace by his hair and then worry about his cronies.

[Novus America]

At the expense of thousands of people who will die in the process and will most likely fail.

Okay, this is kinda for everyone here, but really it’s up to the Belarussians. They wanna go all in and try to topple this guy, knowing that it’ll be painful? Great, that’s bold. They don’t wanna risk it? Totally understandable.

It should be this basic for this event.

I agree. It is worth watching though to see how it plays out. The OP is hyperbolic, but for anyone interested in global politics it is a good thing to keep an eye on given the complex relationship between Belarus, Russia and the West.

[Borderlands of Rojava]

You know America is into creating fake coups.

I'm sure we have a vested interest in couping Belarus, even though the Belarussians are perfectly capable of doing so themselves.

It's more than possible to recognize that America interferes in foreign elections while simultaneously recognizing we just don't do it in every single one. That's an example of finding a relatively true narrative but then falsely applying it to even dissimilar situations.

I'm only saying it's possible. Not that it is.

[Thermodolia]

But how will yesmen pay their bills?

Yesmen? You mean his people? who cares about them

Belorussians drag this monster out of his palace by his hair and then worry about his cronies.

Yet whenever one of us advocates for a general strike to change the system you pitch a fit about how it would destroy the economy.

Hypocrite much?

[Neanderthaland]

But how will yesmen pay their bills?

Yesmen? You mean his people? who cares about them

Belorussians drag this monster out of his palace by his hair and then worry about his cronies.

But they might have to close the bars and gyms!

[San Lumen]

Okay, this is kinda for everyone here, but really it’s up to the Belarussians. They wanna go all in and try to topple this guy, knowing that it’ll be painful? Great, that’s bold. They don’t wanna risk it? Totally understandable.

It should be this basic for this event.

I agree. It is worth watching though to see how it plays out. The OP is hyperbolic, but for anyone interested in global politics it is a good thing to keep an eye on given the complex relationship between Belarus, Russia and the West.

The next few days will tell where this goes. This is unlike his previous election victories.

[Thermodolia]

Yesmen? You mean his people? who cares about them

Belorussians drag this monster out of his palace by his hair and then worry about his cronies.

But they might have to close the bars and gyms!

Don’t forget the theaters!!

[Novus America]

Merkel does nothing because she is terrified of Russia.

No that’s not exactly true. She’ll send them a strongly worded letter telling them not to do that, again

Okay, fair. Send Putin a letter and then do nothing else because she is scared shitless of and economically dependent on Putin.

Relevant:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5TEvacFETvM

[Novus America]

But how will yesmen pay their bills?

Yesmen? You mean his people? who cares about them

Belorussians drag this monster out of his palace by his hair and then worry about his cronies.

If there are not enough opposition to overcome the cronies, the opposition will lose.

[Dresderstan]

But they might have to close the bars and gyms!

Don’t forget the theaters!!

Oh no, whatever shall we do about these luxuries that cost you a lot of money?!?!