Possible Revolution in Belarus after Rigged election

[Exalted Inquellian State]

I mean, it isn't as close as Japan and America, but it does help counter terrorist activity in the region. Add to that the fact Russia helps India economically and an Indian intervention is possible. This does, however, rick the possibility of China entering the war on the American side.

I may be misinformed, but I understood US-Pakistani relations were strained due to Pakistan harboring terrorists. And yeah, Russia and India are related economically (India has more T-90 MBTs than Russia does) but their opposition to China makes them allies of convenience for the US. At the least, there's no bad blood between the US and India as of right now, I think.

Well, the main effect of Pakistan helping America would be making the troop situation in Europe even worse. The soldiers there would already be running out of fuel due to fighting their largest provider. Most American troops happen to be in Afghanistan, and I'm guessing, but I don't think there's any mountainous or foresty areas in Pakistan. So India would quickly overpower them, and trap the Americans in Afghanistan. It would likely be similar to why Portugal didn't help Britain in WW2-because Spain would help Germany. And China joining wouldn't do much, because it would have to stretch it's supply line across Siberia to get to Moscow-which if you don't know, is a thousand kilometre stretch of nothing.

Edit: Did I kill this thread by rambling about how the revolution might survive and logistics of World war three?

[Outer Acharet]

I may be misinformed, but I understood US-Pakistani relations were strained due to Pakistan harboring terrorists. And yeah, Russia and India are related economically (India has more T-90 MBTs than Russia does) but their opposition to China makes them allies of convenience for the US. At the least, there's no bad blood between the US and India as of right now, I think.

Well, the main effect of Pakistan helping America would be making the troop situation in Europe even worse. The soldiers there would already be running out of fuel due to fighting their largest provider. Most American troops happen to be in Afghanistan, and I'm guessing, but I don't think there's any mountainous or foresty areas in Pakistan. So India would quickly overpower them, and trap the Americans in Afghanistan. It would likely be similar to why Portugal didn't help Britain in WW2-because Spain would help Germany. And China joining wouldn't do much, because it would have to stretch it's supply line across Siberia to get to Moscow-which if you don't know, is a thousand kilometre stretch of nothing.

India is actually in a terrible situation in its positioning with Pakistan as the Thar Desert is on their side of the border. So the Pakistani can stage right up to the border with access to food and water but the Indians have to stage troops a hundred miles back. The US in Afghanistan might actually have an advantage thanks to their infrastructure there, and though numerically they'd be screwed, the mountains in the region might prevent a fast advance (same with western Paki, for that matter, pretty mountainous there). The US would likely ship oil to Europe, thanks to its large supply, but it might not be enough, and if they lost Iceland they'd be absolutely screwed as Russian subs could slip the North Atlantic defense net and attack convoys. I would think that in a war India, Pakistan, et cetera would stay largely out of it, since Europe is isolated from their position. They might help with supplies though. China could open up a theater in the Pacific if they wanted to make this into an actual world war. And this all precludes a nuclear exchange.

[Exalted Inquellian State]

Well, the main effect of Pakistan helping America would be making the troop situation in Europe even worse. The soldiers there would already be running out of fuel due to fighting their largest provider. Most American troops happen to be in Afghanistan, and I'm guessing, but I don't think there's any mountainous or foresty areas in Pakistan. So India would quickly overpower them, and trap the Americans in Afghanistan. It would likely be similar to why Portugal didn't help Britain in WW2-because Spain would help Germany. And China joining wouldn't do much, because it would have to stretch it's supply line across Siberia to get to Moscow-which if you don't know, is a thousand kilometre stretch of nothing.

India is actually in a terrible situation in its positioning with Pakistan as the Thar Desert is on their side of the border. So the Pakistani can stage right up to the border with access to food and water but the Indians have to stage troops a hundred miles back. The US in Afghanistan might actually have an advantage thanks to their infrastructure there, and though numerically they'd be screwed, the mountains in the region might prevent a fast advance (same with western Paki, for that matter, pretty mountainous there). The US would likely ship oil to Europe, thanks to its large supply, but it might not be enough, and if they lost Iceland they'd be absolutely screwed as Russian subs could slip the North Atlantic defense net and attack convoys. I would think that in a war India, Pakistan, et cetera would stay largely out of it, since Europe is isolated from their position. They might help with supplies though. China could open up a theater in the Pacific if they wanted to make this into an actual world war. And this all precludes a nuclear exchange.

And right as I ask if this thread is dead, someone writes something.

Anyway, I assume you say China would help Russia. This actually cause India, who hates China, to Switch to America's side, causing Pakistan to switch to Russia's side and totally trap the Americans in Afghanistan. Regarding nukes, I doubt they would be used unless a nation started encroaching a nuclear powers territory, and even then they might decide it isn't worth it. But if Putin goes insane and decides the really Far East is important, we might see him luring Chinese troops into empty Siberian wasteland and dropping nukes on them.

[Outer Acharet]

India is actually in a terrible situation in its positioning with Pakistan as the Thar Desert is on their side of the border. So the Pakistani can stage right up to the border with access to food and water but the Indians have to stage troops a hundred miles back. The US in Afghanistan might actually have an advantage thanks to their infrastructure there, and though numerically they'd be screwed, the mountains in the region might prevent a fast advance (same with western Paki, for that matter, pretty mountainous there). The US would likely ship oil to Europe, thanks to its large supply, but it might not be enough, and if they lost Iceland they'd be absolutely screwed as Russian subs could slip the North Atlantic defense net and attack convoys. I would think that in a war India, Pakistan, et cetera would stay largely out of it, since Europe is isolated from their position. They might help with supplies though. China could open up a theater in the Pacific if they wanted to make this into an actual world war. And this all precludes a nuclear exchange.

And right as I ask if this thread is dead, someone writes something.

Anyway, I assume you say China would help Russia. This actually cause India, who hates China, to Switch to America's side, causing Pakistan to switch to Russia's side and totally trap the Americans in Afghanistan. Regarding nukes, I doubt they would be used unless a nation started encroaching a nuclear powers territory, and even then they might decide it isn't worth it. But if Putin goes insane and decides the really Far East is important, we might see him luring Chinese troops into empty Siberian wasteland and dropping nukes on them.

Big agree, but honestly in this exact scenario I think the worst case is a second Crimea with Russia moving in and the international community blowing smoke. Maybe we get another Georgian Revolution, who knows. But the EU would likely stay stable.

If our little war happens, the US would likely pull out of Afghanistan, there's only a few thousand troops there and that's not enough for anything more than counter-terrorism, which is what they're doing now. And yeah, nukes aren't really good for much in the modern day but measuring whose is longer and just standing there... menacingly. I would expect them to be the last resort of a losing great power.

EDIT: We should probably get back on topic though :/

[Exalted Inquellian State]

And right as I ask if this thread is dead, someone writes something.

Anyway, I assume you say China would help Russia. This actually cause India, who hates China, to Switch to America's side, causing Pakistan to switch to Russia's side and totally trap the Americans in Afghanistan. Regarding nukes, I doubt they would be used unless a nation started encroaching a nuclear powers territory, and even then they might decide it isn't worth it. But if Putin goes insane and decides the really Far East is important, we might see him luring Chinese troops into empty Siberian wasteland and dropping nukes on them.

Big agree, but honestly in this exact scenario I think the worst case is a second Crimea with Russia moving in and the international community blowing smoke. Maybe we get another Georgian Revolution, who knows. But the EU would likely stay stable.

If our little war happens, the US would likely pull out of Afghanistan, there's only a few thousand troops there and that's not enough for anything more than counter-terrorism, which is what they're doing now. And yeah, nukes aren't really good for much in the modern day but measuring whose is longer and just standing there... menacingly. I would expect them to be the last resort of a losing great power.

EDIT: We should probably get back on topic though :/

Yeah, we probably should. Now, I already mentioned my main points:

-It is unlikely the revolution will succeed.

-The only likely way to avoid Russian intervention would be to ally or declare neutrality and become a slavic Switzerland.

-If they get into a war with Russia, Belarus only stands a 10% or so chance of victory, and only 1% of making it out mostly fine.

-The longer the war goes on, the more angry Russia will get.

-NATO will likely not do anything big.

-If NATO start sending to many volunteers and supplies to Belarus, Russia will cut the oil supply to Europe.

Okay, that's about it. Does anyone wish to counterclaim?

[Outer Acharet]

Yeah, we probably should. Now, I already mentioned my main points:

-It is unlikely the revolution will succeed.

-The only likely way to avoid Russian intervention would be to ally or declare neutrality and become a slavic Switzerland.

-If they get into a war with Russia, Belarus only stands a 10% or so chance of victory, and only 1% of making it out mostly fine.

-The longer the war goes on, the more angry Russia will get.

-NATO will likely not do anything big.

-If NATO start sending to many volunteers and supplies to Belarus, Russia will cut the oil supply to Europe.

Okay, that's about it. Does anyone wish to counterclaim?

Don't want to co-opt the thread but the only bit I disagree with is that there's a chance Belarus and Russia duke it out. From what I understand Lukashenko might as well be Putin wearing a mask. I imagine he'd praise Russian intervention with open arms.

There's another way they could avoid war, though.
Quell the dissenters themselves. And that's a human rights violation waiting to happen.

[Sharania]

A high-profile political analyst Vitaly Shkliarov was arrested in Minsk

A high-profile political analyst and strategist who has advised presidential candidates in US, Russia and Ukraine has been detained in Belarus ahead of a tense election.

“I have been arrested”, - wrote Shkliarov in Telegram without providing further details.

The 44-year-old was born in the Belarusian city of Gomel but is based in Washington DC. He has worked on both Barack Obama’s and Bernie Sanders’s presidential campaigns.

Belarusian television said Shkliarov had advised Sergei Tikhanovsky, one of strongman leader Alexander Lukashenko’s would-be rivals, who is now in jail.

The arrest of Tikhanovsky, a popular 41-year-old YouTube blogger, prevented him from submitting his own presidential bid in time. In a surprise move, his 37-year-old wife Svetlana stepped in and was allowed to register as a candidate.

Shkliarov was detained after the KGB security service announced it had arrested 32 Russian mercenaries allegedly plotting to destabilise the country ahead of the presidential election.

JMWU demands the immediate release of our colleague Vitaly Shkliarov arrested in Belarus and explanations from the Belarusian authorities

On July 29, 2020 Vitaly Shkliarov, the columnist in Novaya gazeta (Russia) and many other outlets, political scientist, journalist, writer was arrested in Belarus. The charges against Shkliarov must be announced within 10 days starting from 1 August. Nevertheless it is already unofficially stated that he, who recently returned from the United States, where he was working at Harvard University, was arrested because of his close cooperation with one of the presidential campaign candidates, Sergey Tikhanovsky, who was also arrested under Article 342 of the Belarusian Criminal Code (Organization of group actions violating public order). Vitaly Shkliarov was arrested in connection with the same criminal case.

Despite the fact that no real charges against Shkliarov were presented, Belarusian government media already made broadcasts accusing Vitaly in "commenting political situation in Belarus". According to Belarus info agency BELTA, Shkliarov "by version of special service has been consulting administrators of groups in social media" and "has been controlling political activity of Sergey Tikhanovsky".

In the same time official propaganda uses arrest of Shkliarov who allegedly "introduced in campaign headquarters his agents" and "Russian militants from a private military company Wagner" in relation with arrests of mentioned PMC militants. The government TV station ONT reported on Saturday, August 1, that these activists "could be linked to Sergey Tikhanovsky". The attempt to link these two facts is obvious.

These government media also point out that Shklyarov is a "Russian spin doctor", but that in reality he is not a Russian citizen and has no more links with Russia than with other countries where he has worked and lived. Vitaly Chkliarov was born in Gomel, Belarus, where his parents live. They are currently caring for his underage son, a US citizen, who is separated from his mother.

All these events are taking place during a difficult political period in Belarus, where the work of professional journalists is associated with high risks and many difficulties. We could mention a statement by President Alexander Lukashenko, who publicly called on internal affairs officers to "expel" journalists from the country "calling people to the streets". We have already expressed our solidarity with our colleagues working in Belarus and supported a statement by the Association of Belarusian Journalists and some of the media in that country calling for an end to the persecution of journalists.

Journalists' and Media Workers' Union expresses its extreme concern about this alarming situation and stresses that the unofficial evidence of Vitaly Shkliarov's "guilt" constitutes a flagrant violation of fundamental human rights as well as a violation of freedom of expression and interference in journalistic activities. In other words, a violation of all the international obligations that Belarus has undertaken.

We call for the immediate release of our colleague Vitaly Shkliarov and a public explanation of the reasons for his criminal prosecution. We also demand an end to the pressure on journalists in Belarus and to allow our colleagues to work freely in the media covering events that are essential for the future of the country.

Like I said previously, Vitaly Shkliarov is American. Will Trump and his StateSec do anything about bringing him home safely, or will Mr. Shkliarov have to languish in prison because he had the temerity to work as electoral staffer for Obama?

[Sharania]

As to what should be done... Given undeniable ballot stuffing and other irregularities, given brutal repression of the peaceful protesters, one thing is certain. Since this bloody night, Alexander Lukashenka is not the President of Belarus, but a criminal whose fate must be decided by an international tribunal in Hague, as is the case with all criminals who have committed especially grave crimes against humanity.

The US and EU should NOT recognize the lections outcome. Time for a maximum pressure campaign done smartly. It might surprise some of you, but Trump recently tried warming diplomatic relations with Belarus. This must end - NOW. The US should not send its first ambassador to Minsk since 2008 as currently planned and, instead, sanction Magnitsky list style, Lukashenka and his regime. The EU must do likewise. No freebies for dictators – only conditions and demands.

P.S. Forget about what Russia might do to save Lukashenka’s hide. Now, CCP - I’d watch them instead. Chairman Xi was the first to congratulate Lukashenka with his “victory”.

[Outer Acharet]

As to what should be done... Given undeniable ballot stuffing and other irregularities, given brutal repression of the peaceful protesters, one thing is certain. Since this bloody night, Alexander Lukashenka is not the President of Belarus, but a criminal whose fate must be decided by an international tribunal in Hague, as is the case with all criminals who have committed especially grave crimes against humanity.

The US and EU should NOT recognize the election's outcome. Time for a maximum pressure campaign done smartly. It might surprise some of you, but Trump recently tried warming diplomatic relations with Belarus. This must end - NOW. The US should not send its first ambassador to Minsk since 2008 as currently planned and, instead, sanction Magnitsky list style, Lukashenka and his regime. The EU must do likewise. No freebies for dictators – only conditions and demands.

P.S. Forget about what Russia might do to save Lukashenka’s hide. Now, CCP - I’d watch them instead. Chairman Xi was the first to congratulate Lukashenka with his “victory”.

Russia would step in in a case of disturbance in the region due to their interest in keeping a large nation on their border secure (and b/c anything Soviet is "rightful Rossiya clay" to them). China wants to sink their hooks into Europe.
Lukashenko can be the President and a criminal at the same time. (Though the Hague being able to try him is a bit of a non-starter, thanks to their authority really being nominal).

[Exalted Inquellian State]

Yeah, we probably should. Now, I already mentioned my main points:

-It is unlikely the revolution will succeed.

-The only likely way to avoid Russian intervention would be to ally or declare neutrality and become a slavic Switzerland.

-If they get into a war with Russia, Belarus only stands a 10% or so chance of victory, and only 1% of making it out mostly fine.

-The longer the war goes on, the more angry Russia will get.

-NATO will likely not do anything big.

-If NATO start sending to many volunteers and supplies to Belarus, Russia will cut the oil supply to Europe.

Okay, that's about it. Does anyone wish to counterclaim?

Don't want to co-opt the thread but the only bit I disagree with is that there's a chance Belarus and Russia duke it out. From what I understand Lukashenko might as well be Putin wearing a mask. I imagine he'd praise Russian intervention with open arms.

There's another way they could avoid war, though.
Quell the dissenters themselves. And that's a human rights violation waiting to happen.

I'm talking about a possible outcome where the protesters topple Lukashenko. Russia will almost certainly not invade them if he remains in power.

[Outer Acharet]

Don't want to co-opt the thread but the only bit I disagree with is that there's a chance Belarus and Russia duke it out. From what I understand Lukashenko might as well be Putin wearing a mask. I imagine he'd praise Russian intervention with open arms.

There's another way they could avoid war, though.
Quell the dissenters themselves. And that's a human rights violation waiting to happen.

I'm talking about a possible outcome where the protesters topple Lukashenko. Russia will almost certainly not invade them if he remains in power.

Very true, then a Russian intervention would be a certainty.

[Thermodolia]

Ukraine had a successful revolution

In what World was Ukraine's Revolution successful? They lost Crimea, lost a good chunk of Eastern Ukraine, had their economy in the dumps, and had leadership so bad that the country elected a comedian instead. Millions were forced to work abroad to make ends meet, their chief medical officer is nicknamed Dr. Death, the armed forces are underpaid, the nuclear physicists fled to North Korea, Russia's effectively taking able manpower from Ukraine with job offers and stability, in Russia, crime in Ukraine is out of control, local oligarchs fight other regions to enlarge their power base, the country's in a death spiral... How is any of this a success Lumen? I'd rather have Lukashenko than Ukraine's mess.

Holy fuck Ukraine is really bad when fleeing to NK looks like a good idea

[Thermodolia]

They will.

You mean they won’t stop? I hope if Russia intervened they rebel against his troops too. I also don’t think Putin is going to want the blood of tens of thousands on his hands and images on the news of his solders gunning down people in the streets

Putin doesn’t give two shits about what it would look like. Putin served in the KGB for fuck sake

[Thermodolia]

And what do they do when Russia plunges Europe into a massive blackout because Russia shut off all the gas to Europe? What then

They'll just have to build more nuclear or renewable power plants.

That takes time. Time that the leaders of Europe don’t have.

[Valrifell]

In what World was Ukraine's Revolution successful? They lost Crimea, lost a good chunk of Eastern Ukraine, had their economy in the dumps, and had leadership so bad that the country elected a comedian instead. Millions were forced to work abroad to make ends meet, their chief medical officer is nicknamed Dr. Death, the armed forces are underpaid, the nuclear physicists fled to North Korea, Russia's effectively taking able manpower from Ukraine with job offers and stability, in Russia, crime in Ukraine is out of control, local oligarchs fight other regions to enlarge their power base, the country's in a death spiral... How is any of this a success Lumen? I'd rather have Lukashenko than Ukraine's mess.

Holy fuck Ukraine is really bad when fleeing to NK looks like a good idea

Alright maybe bring it down a few levels.

[Thermodolia]

With what?

They have nothing to fight back with.

Which is exactly why the west should intervene on their behalf.

Fuck that

[Dresderstan]

Which is exactly why the west should intervene on their behalf.

Fuck that

Agreed, we're already in a quagmire in the Middle East, we don't need one in Eastern Europe.

[Washington Resistance Army]

With what?

They have nothing to fight back with.

Which is exactly why the west should intervene on their behalf.

We have exactly nothing to gain from such a move.

[Kowani]

Which is exactly why the west should intervene on their behalf.

We have exactly nothing to gain from such a move.

Nothing to gain, everything to lose, would you like to roll the dice?

[Farnhamia]

Hopefully the security forces decide they have had enough and tell Lukashenko they will disobey him

Do you not fucking understand, they won't they're insanely loyal no matter what, they would die for him, you clearly are delusional if you think his loyal security forces will suddenly betray him to fit your bullshit narrative.

*** Warned for flaming ***

[Neanderthaland]

Which is exactly why the west should intervene on their behalf.

We have exactly nothing to gain from such a move.

"Well there's a division in American politics about whether it is good to be as rude as possible to the nutty Russians..."

[Outer Acharet]

We have exactly nothing to gain from such a move.

Nothing to gain, everything to lose, would you like to roll the dice?

Rolled 1, 1 = 2.

[Nooooooooooooooo]

I don't like how Dr. Phil rules Belarus

[Exalted Inquellian State]

Oh, by the way, the reason I started following this is because it interfered with my Scratch lessons many times. i was actually surprised that there are protests.

[Nerovia]

Europe’s last dictatorship is in revolt after a presidential election that resulted in the current leader Alexander Lukashenko (who has been in power since 1994) winning up to 80% of the vote. His opponents don’t think so and have refused to accept the results; they believe it was rigged. People have taken to the streets to express their frustration and unhappiness with the current president, they are fed up with him. Protests have been taking place in the capital Minsk and a dozen other cities across the county.

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-europe-53717834

More info about the opponent side: https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020/8 ... test-minsk

What are your thoughts on the matter? Belarus was the last place I expected this sort of thing to be honest. Eastern Europe is going to be a different place politically and economically if the Lukashenko government falls.