Possible Revolution in Belarus after Rigged election

[Shofercia]

Explain why war with Russia is good then Mr hyperbole?

There isn’t going to be a war with Russia

Says the poster that's calling for European armed forces to depose Lukashenko by force.

It'd be a shame to lose Lukashenko.

consider the following.

nothing is going happen if he has the military.

Which he does.

There isn’t going to be a war with Russia

How else are you going to stand up to Russia in their own backyard?

He'll politely ask Putin to embrace neoliberal values, because we all know that Putin totally cares about the opinion of a single NSG poster, and will instantly obey.

then what do you mean by "standing up to putin".

Tell him not to meddle in the country or face serious consequences

And he'll use the very strongly worded letter for kindling.

And that's not happening unless Lumen want's a third world war.

And you call my posts fantasy? Pot meet kettle

Your posts in this thread are the very definition of the word fantasy.

and then the russians said nuts to that.

and then a bunch of Europeans got blown out of the sky by a Rebel SAM.

and now the Ukrainian military is bogged down in a 6 year stalemate while those bastards in Europe can sip their wine and pound their chests and say "what a grand revolution it was!".

As a person of post-Soviet background, I resent your belittling of my experience. (/s)

Georgia experienced such a revolution in 2003 which was hailed by the familiar European liberals and sneered at by the likes of you as an astroturfing. The result is that they have an efficient, capable state, as evidenced by their great success in dealing with the coronavirus in contrast with Azerbaijan (your standard Belarus-style benevolent dictatorship) and Armenia (only now recovering from a similar experience).

One can acknowledge the failures of democratization while still supporting it in light of its undeniable success in creating accountable states.

Yes, Georgia's shelling of a Russian Military base was highly successful in getting their own armed forces annihilated in less than two weeks, annihilated so badly that Georgian cops had to meet with Russian soldiers for the prisoner exchange. Then Saakashvili was forced out with protests involving actual brooms. Such success, much wow. He was replaced with a capable leader who admirably led Georgia's COVID-19 response, but let's not pretend that Saakshvili the Revolutionary was some kind of genius, eh? Also comparing Azerbaijan to Belarus is rather ignorant, considering that Belarus isn't known to create international drama.

[San Lumen]

Hopefully even more people will stand up to him force him out like Ceaușescu

They won't, because I doubt he's scared at all, and the people aren't even fucking armed.

Neither were those in Romania

[Dresderstan]

They won't, because I doubt he's scared at all, and the people aren't even fucking armed.

Neither were those in Romania

The only reason Romania's revolution was successful was because the secret police were inept, and the military staged a coup, that's not happening here, and even if it does Russia will intervene and crush the revolt.

[Shofercia]

The hypocrisy here is astounding. A general strike in Belarus is hailed as wonderful and something we should literally go to war to support, yet one of us calls for a general strike here in the US it’s met with scornful derision

That's because one will spread neoliberalism, and the other will spread not neoliberalism.

Bingo!

I wonder what kind of turnaround I could get by mentioning that Lukashenko has accused Russia of trying to influence the election over the past few months. Will the anti-EU people now call for his ouster? Will those who want to just turn Belarus into another victim of their neoliberal hogwash wish to keep him onboard? Lets find out.

Most Russophiles are realists, so, nope. It's just Lukashenko being Lukashenko, I mean let's not forget, dude advocated vodka as COVID-19 cure, but he also has solid support at home, even if it's not the majority.

(Image)

Found it on reddit

i bet that will be the talk of the briefing room.

"anu Bylat, look at Boris standing next to Western spy."

Since Belarusian and Russian relations have been a bit frosty recently, what's Russia/Putin's view on this? Could it be an opportunity to prop up someone who's more favourable?

Rhetorical questions aside, I guess either way it's another good opportunity for Putin to step in the midst of public discourse.

There will be protests. They'll get handled internally. The EU will sanction Belarus, and Russia will use the sanctions to increase it's power base in Belarus. Lukashenko will remain in power.

Since Belarusian and Russian relations have been a bit frosty recently, what's Russia/Putin's view on this? Could it be an opportunity to prop up someone who's more favourable?

Rhetorical questions aside, I guess either way it's another good opportunity for Putin to step in the midst of public discourse.

Apparently, Belarus caught a few Russian agents. I don't know if they're actually working for Russia or are just rogues, but this has caused a hiccup between them, and this was a week or so before the election.

Now, if there is a successful revolution(which isn't the likeliest thing, as many lead to failure or civil wars in modern times) and Russia calls for intervention, there's two ways for the government to save itself-declare neutrality or buddy up with Russia. Thanks to Realpolitik, Russia will likely let them slide if it keeps a buffer state, or at least a non-hostile neighbor.

Belarus caught a couple of Russian mercs going to Sudan because their company didn't pay transit bribes to Lukashenko. That has little to do with the election.

i bet hes cowering in his boots.

Hopefully even more people will stand up to him force him out like Ceaușescu

Execution's always an interesting way to flee the country.

[San Lumen]

That's because one will spread neoliberalism, and the other will spread not neoliberalism.

Bingo!

I wonder what kind of turnaround I could get by mentioning that Lukashenko has accused Russia of trying to influence the election over the past few months. Will the anti-EU people now call for his ouster? Will those who want to just turn Belarus into another victim of their neoliberal hogwash wish to keep him onboard? Lets find out.

Most Russophiles are realists, so, nope. It's just Lukashenko being Lukashenko, I mean let's not forget, dude advocated vodka as COVID-19 cure, but he also has solid support at home, even if it's not the majority.

i bet that will be the talk of the briefing room.

"anu Bylat, look at Boris standing next to Western spy."

Since Belarusian and Russian relations have been a bit frosty recently, what's Russia/Putin's view on this? Could it be an opportunity to prop up someone who's more favourable?

Rhetorical questions aside, I guess either way it's another good opportunity for Putin to step in the midst of public discourse.

There will be protests. They'll get handled internally. The EU will sanction Belarus, and Russia will use the sanctions to increase it's power base in Belarus. Lukashenko will remain in power.

Apparently, Belarus caught a few Russian agents. I don't know if they're actually working for Russia or are just rogues, but this has caused a hiccup between them, and this was a week or so before the election.

Now, if there is a successful revolution(which isn't the likeliest thing, as many lead to failure or civil wars in modern times) and Russia calls for intervention, there's two ways for the government to save itself-declare neutrality or buddy up with Russia. Thanks to Realpolitik, Russia will likely let them slide if it keeps a buffer state, or at least a non-hostile neighbor.

Belarus caught a couple of Russian mercs going to Sudan because their company didn't pay transit bribes to Lukashenko. That has little to do with the election.

Hopefully even more people will stand up to him force him out like Ceaușescu

Execution's always an interesting way to flee the country.

Hopefully the people don’t stop protesting until he is out

[Shofercia]

Hopefully the people don’t stop protesting until he is out

They will.

[San Lumen]

Hopefully the people don’t stop protesting until he is out

They will.

You mean they won’t stop? I hope if Russia intervened they rebel against his troops too. I also don’t think Putin is going to want the blood of tens of thousands on his hands and images on the news of his solders gunning down people in the streets

[Exalted Inquellian State]

Neither were those in Romania

The only reason Romania's revolution was successful was because the secret police were inept, and the military staged a coup, that's not happening here, and even if it does Russia will intervene and crush the revolt.

Assuming there is a revolution, it might still be possible for them to propose an alliance to Russia or to be neutral. Of course, if the leaders are foolish or Russia for some reason rejects the proposal, they will face a war that Belarus will likely not win and will likely end with Russia installing a guy in military uniform on the Belarusian presidency, if not annexation. Their only hope for victory is to hold the line until Russia agrees to leave them alone, go into guerrilla warfare(at which point outright annexation into Russia would be more preferable), or somehow to get Europe to help them. But this still raises concerns. What if the Belorussians revolt because they gain no land? What if Russia wins in World War Three? What if nukes fly?

[Dresderstan]

They will.

You mean they won’t stop? I hope if Russia intervened they rebel against his troops too. I also don’t think Putin is going to want the blood of tens of thousands on his hands and images on the news of his solders gunning down people in the streets

Your "hope" is fallacy and fantasy, it won't happen.

[San Lumen]

The only reason Romania's revolution was successful was because the secret police were inept, and the military staged a coup, that's not happening here, and even if it does Russia will intervene and crush the revolt.

Assuming there is a revolution, it might still be possible for them to propose an alliance to Russia or to be neutral. Of course, if the leaders are foolish or Russia for some reason rejects the proposal, they will face a war that Belarus will likely not win and will likely end with Russia installing a guy in military uniform on the Belarusian presidency, if not annexation. Their only hope for victory is to hold the line until Russia agrees to leave them alone, go into guerrilla warfare(at which point outright annexation into Russia would be more preferable), or somehow to get Europe to help them. But this still raises concerns. What if the Belorussians revolt because they gain no land? What if Russia wins in World War Three? What if nukes fly?

Your delving into pure hyperbole now

[Dresderstan]

Assuming there is a revolution, it might still be possible for them to propose an alliance to Russia or to be neutral. Of course, if the leaders are foolish or Russia for some reason rejects the proposal, they will face a war that Belarus will likely not win and will likely end with Russia installing a guy in military uniform on the Belarusian presidency, if not annexation. Their only hope for victory is to hold the line until Russia agrees to leave them alone, go into guerrilla warfare(at which point outright annexation into Russia would be more preferable), or somehow to get Europe to help them. But this still raises concerns. What if the Belorussians revolt because they gain no land? What if Russia wins in World War Three? What if nukes fly?

Your delving into pure hyperbole now

Says the man who wants a fucking war over Belarus.

[Shofercia]

They will.

You mean they won’t stop? I hope if Russia intervened they rebel against his troops too. I also don’t think Putin is going to want the blood of tens of thousands on his hands and images on the news of his solders gunning down people in the streets

No, I mean that they'll stop protesting. Belarus has over 100,000 irregular forces that would pose a challenge to Russian & American armed forces, so they'll easily take care of the protesters if called upon. And Russia will prevent any foreign military interference.

Your delving into pure hyperbole now

Says the man who wants a fucking war over Belarus.

Isn't Europe overdue for a major war? 1812, 1853, 1914, 1945 - definitely overdue. Yes, I'm being sarcastic.

[Exalted Inquellian State]

Assuming there is a revolution, it might still be possible for them to propose an alliance to Russia or to be neutral. Of course, if the leaders are foolish or Russia for some reason rejects the proposal, they will face a war that Belarus will likely not win and will likely end with Russia installing a guy in military uniform on the Belarusian presidency, if not annexation. Their only hope for victory is to hold the line until Russia agrees to leave them alone, go into guerrilla warfare(at which point outright annexation into Russia would be more preferable), or somehow to get Europe to help them. But this still raises concerns. What if the Belorussians revolt because they gain no land? What if Russia wins in World War Three? What if nukes fly?

Your delving into pure hyperbole now

Which part is hyperbole, again? The fears I mentioned here are perfectly rational. People are usually pissed after fighting a costly war and getting no land, which is the only way Belarus will get out of a war with Russia without being a puppet. If the country is in guerrilla warfare, it's likely the government surrender or was killed in some form, which will lead people to believe hope is lost and accept annexation. There is a chance Russia might win, if China backs them, though that still does leave room for NATO victory. And there is a chance nukes might fly in World War Three.

[Bienenhalde]

I don’t know. The EU is talking about democratizing the country apparently according to the statement by Ursula von der Leyen

So basically getting into a war with Russia.

Better than appeasing Putin.

[San Lumen]

You mean they won’t stop? I hope if Russia intervened they rebel against his troops too. I also don’t think Putin is going to want the blood of tens of thousands on his hands and images on the news of his solders gunning down people in the streets

No, I mean that they'll stop protesting. Belarus has over 100,000 irregular forces that would pose a challenge to Russian & American armed forces, so they'll easily take care of the protesters if called upon. And Russia will prevent any foreign military interference.

Says the man who wants a fucking war over Belarus.

Isn't Europe overdue for a major war? 1812, 1853, 1914, 1945 - definitely overdue. Yes, I'm being sarcastic.

Then everyone should stop paying any taxes and stop going to work. Bankrupt the country. His own staff should walk out

They shouldn’t stop. Attack his security forces with anything possible even cars and trucks

[Dresderstan]

So basically getting into a war with Russia.

Better than appeasing Putin.

Sorry I'd rather not have WWIII and have the neo-con war hawks in charge.

[Bienenhalde]

They shouldn’t. They should tell Putin to go to hell

And what do they do when Russia plunges Europe into a massive blackout because Russia shut off all the gas to Europe? What then

They'll just have to build more nuclear or renewable power plants.

[Dresderstan]

No, I mean that they'll stop protesting. Belarus has over 100,000 irregular forces that would pose a challenge to Russian & American armed forces, so they'll easily take care of the protesters if called upon. And Russia will prevent any foreign military interference.




Isn't Europe overdue for a major war? 1812, 1853, 1914, 1945 - definitely overdue. Yes, I'm being sarcastic.

Then everyone should stop paying any taxes and stop going to work. Bankrupt the country. His own staff should walk out

So why can't we do that here, you bitch about us saying it'd bankrupt the economy if we went on a general strike? You care more about your precious luxuries like bars and gyms, but only if it effects you and then turn to Belarus and want them to do what Therm wants here, it's downright hypocrisy for you to call for people in Belarus to protest, and then worry about your precious luxuries and the economy here. Make up your fucking mind!

[Exalted Inquellian State]

And what do they do when Russia plunges Europe into a massive blackout because Russia shut off all the gas to Europe? What then

They'll just have to build more nuclear or renewable power plants.

That costs a lot of money. In the epidemic and now with an embargo, there will be many difficulties making enoguh money to build them and sending workers there.

[Outer Acharet]

Then everyone should stop paying any taxes and stop going to work. Bankrupt the country. His own staff should walk out

They shouldn’t stop. Attack his security forces with anything possible even cars and trucks

"No! You can't just commit warcrimes against your own citizens, it's immoral!"
"Haha, automatic anti-materiel weaponry goes brrr"

EDIT:

They'll just have to build more nuclear or renewable power plants.

That costs a lot of money. In the epidemic and now with an embargo, there will be many difficulties making enoguh money to build them and sending workers there.

And the big two EU countries, Germany and France, are both taking steps to dismantle nuclear infrastructure in favor of less efficient renewable options.

[Bienenhalde]

Ukraine had a successful revolution

Debatable.

Still do you want to risk economic collapse if the EU attempts to not back down in the face of Russia?

So what if the economy collapses? Some things are more important than economics.

[Loben III]

They will.

You mean they won’t stop? I hope if Russia intervened they rebel against his troops too. I also don’t think Putin is going to want the blood of tens of thousands on his hands and images on the news of his solders gunning down people in the streets

rebel how?

they have nothing to fight back with.

[Loben III]

Debatable.

Still do you want to risk economic collapse if the EU attempts to not back down in the face of Russia?

So what if the economy collapses? Some things are more important than economics.

im sure the average european subject cares just a tad bit about if hes going to get his latte the next morning.

[Exalted Inquellian State]

Debatable.

Still do you want to risk economic collapse if the EU attempts to not back down in the face of Russia?

So what if the economy collapses? Some things are more important than economics.

How will the Europeans fund a military if their oil is running out, they're at war, and their economy is in free fall? There will be a Russian advance in that case. And guess what started the Russian revolutions? A poor economy and loosing the war.

[San Lumen]

You mean they won’t stop? I hope if Russia intervened they rebel against his troops too. I also don’t think Putin is going to want the blood of tens of thousands on his hands and images on the news of his solders gunning down people in the streets

rebel how?

they have nothing to fight back with.

Any means nessacery