Possible Revolution in Belarus after Rigged election

[San Lumen]

I don't know about this particular instance, I'm speaking in generalities, but also independent opinion polls must be caveated. There's no reliable polling in Belarus so it's impossible to know if it's an actual majority opposition or just a large opposition like China had in 1989.

I linked non state-sanctioned polling and I’ll have to go back and retrieve a second source, but I think an additional poll had him around 30%, a little higher than the 24% I linked.

I don’t doubt that Lukashenko was once fiercely popular. He definitely was, after all Belarus weathered the 1990s crisis very well compared to neighbors, has a solid safety net etc etc. But familiarity breeds contempt, and when you’re the head of state for 26 years and only maintain it with a massive security apparatus and human rights abuses, soon even the most loyal of supporters will turn on you and demand change.

Even so i hope he to see this grow into a full fledged revolution and the people rebel against the army and security forces and start attacking them and throw stuff at government buildings and his palace. I want to see what happened in a Amazon Prime series based on a popular book series occur in Belarus.

[Major-Tom]

I linked non state-sanctioned polling and I’ll have to go back and retrieve a second source, but I think an additional poll had him around 30%, a little higher than the 24% I linked.

I don’t doubt that Lukashenko was once fiercely popular. He definitely was, after all Belarus weathered the 1990s crisis very well compared to neighbors, has a solid safety net etc etc. But familiarity breeds contempt, and when you’re the head of state for 26 years and only maintain it with a massive security apparatus and human rights abuses, soon even the most loyal of supporters will turn on you and demand change.

Yes but did one of his opponents have more than 30% or where they all sub 30%

All sub 30, I mean anybody can kind of blatantly see that Lukashenko isn’t too subtle about election rigging.

[San Lumen]

Yes but did one of his opponents have more than 30% or where they all sub 30%

All sub 30, I mean anybody can kind of blatantly see that Lukashenko isn’t too subtle about election rigging.

The main opposition candidate claims she has proof she won in landslide and is telling her people to protest

[Major-Tom]

I linked non state-sanctioned polling and I’ll have to go back and retrieve a second source, but I think an additional poll had him around 30%, a little higher than the 24% I linked.

I don’t doubt that Lukashenko was once fiercely popular. He definitely was, after all Belarus weathered the 1990s crisis very well compared to neighbors, has a solid safety net etc etc. But familiarity breeds contempt, and when you’re the head of state for 26 years and only maintain it with a massive security apparatus and human rights abuses, soon even the most loyal of supporters will turn on you and demand change.

Even so i hope he to see this grow into a full fledged revolution and the people rebel against the army and security forces and start attacking them and throw stuff at government buildings and his palace. I want to see what happened in a Amazon Prime series based on a popular book series occur in Belarus.

That’s oddly specific, but I mean, yeah if the Belarussians wanna go ham tonight, I salute them.

[Thermodolia]

I linked non state-sanctioned polling and I’ll have to go back and retrieve a second source, but I think an additional poll had him around 30%, a little higher than the 24% I linked.

I don’t doubt that Lukashenko was once fiercely popular. He definitely was, after all Belarus weathered the 1990s crisis very well compared to neighbors, has a solid safety net etc etc. But familiarity breeds contempt, and when you’re the head of state for 26 years and only maintain it with a massive security apparatus and human rights abuses, soon even the most loyal of supporters will turn on you and demand change.

Opinion polling is illegal in Belarus, and internet censorship is massive. There's just not enough sample size for a reliable poll. I can't know of course. Give it a month. If he's gone in a month, that's that, if he's still there in a month, he'll either win or it will be very bloody.

He’s not leaving. Russia will make sure of that. If they have to have T-90s rolling into Minsk to keep him in power, then that’s what will happen

[Latvijas Otra Republika]

Lumen, if you want to bury the men and women that’ll pass thanks to a revolt that’s your choice. You’re at the comfort of your home while people might have their lives destroyed by this. Lose their jobs and have Russian mercenaries coming to their homeland.
It won’t be just or glorious, won’t be swift or bloodless. This isn’t a Disney fantasy, Lumen. Even with your sudden free market democracy installed there will be even more hardship for at least decades to come, none of which you will experience.

You’ll have your internet brownie points for a day while some may never breath again.

[San Lumen]

Even so i hope he to see this grow into a full fledged revolution and the people rebel against the army and security forces and start attacking them and throw stuff at government buildings and his palace. I want to see what happened in a Amazon Prime series based on a popular book series occur in Belarus.

That’s oddly specific, but I mean, yeah if the Belarussians wanna go ham tonight, I salute them.

What? I was trying not to give any spoilers

[Punished UMN]

I linked non state-sanctioned polling and I’ll have to go back and retrieve a second source, but I think an additional poll had him around 30%, a little higher than the 24% I linked.

I don’t doubt that Lukashenko was once fiercely popular. He definitely was, after all Belarus weathered the 1990s crisis very well compared to neighbors, has a solid safety net etc etc. But familiarity breeds contempt, and when you’re the head of state for 26 years and only maintain it with a massive security apparatus and human rights abuses, soon even the most loyal of supporters will turn on you and demand change.

Even so i hope he to see this grow into a full fledged revolution and the people rebel against the army and security forces and start attacking them and throw stuff at government buildings and his palace. I want to see what happened in a Amazon Prime series based on a popular book series occur in Belarus.

Be careful what you wish for, the Belarusian security apparatus is strong. That stuff happened at Tiananman before the end too.

[San Lumen]

Even so i hope he to see this grow into a full fledged revolution and the people rebel against the army and security forces and start attacking them and throw stuff at government buildings and his palace. I want to see what happened in a Amazon Prime series based on a popular book series occur in Belarus.

Be careful what you wish for, the Belarusian security apparatus is strong. That stuff happened at Tiananman before the end too.

I hope the whole country rises up and fills the streets and attacks his palace.

[Major-Tom]

I linked non state-sanctioned polling and I’ll have to go back and retrieve a second source, but I think an additional poll had him around 30%, a little higher than the 24% I linked.

I don’t doubt that Lukashenko was once fiercely popular. He definitely was, after all Belarus weathered the 1990s crisis very well compared to neighbors, has a solid safety net etc etc. But familiarity breeds contempt, and when you’re the head of state for 26 years and only maintain it with a massive security apparatus and human rights abuses, soon even the most loyal of supporters will turn on you and demand change.

Opinion polling is illegal in Belarus, and internet censorship is massive. There's just not enough sample size for a reliable poll. I can't know of course. Give it a month. If he's gone in a month, that's that, if he's still there in a month, he'll either win or it will be very bloody.

Right, so consider that one internet poll has him at 3% and state sanctioned ones at 90%. Obviously the real number is probably far, far lower than 90% and probably under 50% considering the Internet poll, while probs inaccurate af, did have a massive sample size of nearly 70,000.

I don’t think he’ll be gone in a month, either way. As you mentioned, their security apparatus is enormous and often one of the few dictatorships that just isn’t talked about, it’s alarming how totalitarian (not authoritarian) Belarus really is. I think to achieve lasting change in that sort of environment, you need more than a month.

[Thermodolia]

Be careful what you wish for, the Belarusian security apparatus is strong. That stuff happened at Tiananman before the end too.

I hope the whole country rises up and fills the streets and attacks his palace.

You want Russian T-90s in Minsk? Because that’s how you get Russian T-90s in Minsk

[San Lumen]

Opinion polling is illegal in Belarus, and internet censorship is massive. There's just not enough sample size for a reliable poll. I can't know of course. Give it a month. If he's gone in a month, that's that, if he's still there in a month, he'll either win or it will be very bloody.

Right, so consider that one internet poll has him at 3% and state sanctioned ones at 90%. Obviously the real number is probably far, far lower than 90% and probably under 50% considering the Internet poll, while probs inaccurate af, did have a massive sample size of nearly 70,000.

I don’t think he’ll be gone in a month, either way. As you mentioned, their security apparatus is enormous and often one of the few dictatorships that just isn’t talked about, it’s alarming how totalitarian (not authoritarian) Belarus really is. I think to achieve lasting change in that sort of environment, you need more than a month.

here is proof the election was rigged. In this video opposition candidate Tsikhanouskaya gets more than 90% of the vote. I think Belarus has finally had enough and will not stand down until he is gone : https://twitter.com/wiczipedia/status/1 ... 4462646273

[Punished UMN]

Be careful what you wish for, the Belarusian security apparatus is strong. That stuff happened at Tiananman before the end too.

I hope the whole country rises up and fills the streets and attacks his palace.

That is how you get protesters massacred.

[San Lumen]

I hope the whole country rises up and fills the streets and attacks his palace.

That is how you get protesters massacred.

If enough people rise up their is only so much they can do. He needs to be ousted and I hope to see video in the next few weeks of him being dragged out of his palace by an angry mob.

[Novus America]

Opinion polling is illegal in Belarus, and internet censorship is massive. There's just not enough sample size for a reliable poll. I can't know of course. Give it a month. If he's gone in a month, that's that, if he's still there in a month, he'll either win or it will be very bloody.

He’s not leaving. Russia will make sure of that. If they have to have T-90s rolling into Minsk to keep him in power, then that’s what will happen

Not so sure about that because Russia is not on great terms with him, they might remove him to place a more pliable puppet in his place if the opportunity arises.

[Thermodolia]

Opinion polling is illegal in Belarus, and internet censorship is massive. There's just not enough sample size for a reliable poll. I can't know of course. Give it a month. If he's gone in a month, that's that, if he's still there in a month, he'll either win or it will be very bloody.

Right, so consider that one internet poll has him at 3% and state sanctioned ones at 90%. Obviously the real number is probably far, far lower than 90% and probably under 50% considering the Internet poll, while probs inaccurate af, did have a massive sample size of nearly 70,000.

I don’t think he’ll be gone in a month, either way. As you mentioned, their security apparatus is enormous and often one of the few dictatorships that just isn’t talked about, it’s alarming how totalitarian (not authoritarian) Belarus really is. I think to achieve lasting change in that sort of environment, you need more than a month.

Not to mention that Russia has a vested interest in keeping him in office. This nascent revolution isn’t just going up against the Security apparatus but Russia as well

[Punished UMN]

That is how you get protesters massacred.

If enough people rise up their is only so much they can do.

Yes, but only if the army joins in.

[San Lumen]

If enough people rise up their is only so much they can do.

Yes, but only if the army joins in.

If enough people rebel I think eventually they would. I doubt think they are going to want to slaughter tens of thousands.

[Dresderstan]

I hope the whole country rises up and fills the streets and attacks his palace.

You want Russian T-90s in Minsk? Because that’s how you get Russian T-90s in Minsk

Lumen doesn't care anymore, he views destroying any dictatorship regardless as "for the greater good" and "the ends justify the means" bullshit while forgetting that thousands will die in the process but it doesn't matter to him.

[Thermodolia]

He’s not leaving. Russia will make sure of that. If they have to have T-90s rolling into Minsk to keep him in power, then that’s what will happen

Not so sure about that because Russia is not on great terms with him, they might remove him to place a more pliable puppet in his place if the opportunity arises.

Right but you’ll still get T-90s in the streets. Russia doesn’t want Belarus to be a democracy. That could lead it out of Russia’s orbit. They’ll roll tanks in and do a Dictator switch-a-roo

[San Lumen]

You want Russian T-90s in Minsk? Because that’s how you get Russian T-90s in Minsk

Lumen doesn't care anymore, he views destroying any dictatorship regardless as "for the greater good" and "the ends justify the means" bullshit while forgetting that thousands will die in the process but it doesn't matter to him.

Toppling Lukashenko would be for the greater good. Hes a monster.

[Dresderstan]

Yes, but only if the army joins in.

If enough people rebel I think eventually they would. I doubt think they are going to want to slaughter tens of thousands.

Are you sure about that, not everyone has this beacon of what you called "a moral compass" they will be slaughtered, if you believe the military will stage a coup, you're delusional.

[Thermodolia]

Yes, but only if the army joins in.

If enough people rebel I think eventually they would. I doubt think they are going to want to slaughter tens of thousands.

That’s not going to happen. Russia won’t let it

[Aureumterra]

Lumen, this title is probably the most laughable hyperbole ever. There is not a chance for an actual revolution, not even a coup, Lukashenko has a tight grip over the military and the country’s institutions, in a place where civilians aren’t armed, that’s all it takes to remain in power for life

[Dresderstan]

Lumen doesn't care anymore, he views destroying any dictatorship regardless as "for the greater good" and "the ends justify the means" bullshit while forgetting that thousands will die in the process but it doesn't matter to him.

Toppling Lukashenko would be for the greater good. Hes a monster.

At the expense of thousands of people who will die in the process and will most likely fail.