Possible Revolution in Belarus after Rigged election

[Novus America]

So in your book basically any authoritarian regime is good if it is reactionary and oppressive enough?

No?

Obeyism is more a fetish than any sort of coherent philosophy.

What?

Given the general love of authoritarian aesthetics, yes. It is very much a fetish type thing, love of uniforms and leather boots beating people down.

[Thermodolia]

They were the perfect adversary and had great taste in aesthetics.

All the bad ideologies have dope-ass aesthetics. Fascists had edgy, black flags and cool logos, communists had the Hammer and Sickle and love for the Motherland, and imperialists had exploration and spreading Christianity. I wish capitalism and democracy had shit like that.

Capitalism has McDonalds

[The Marlborough]

They were the perfect adversary and had great taste in aesthetics.

All the bad ideologies have dope-ass aesthetics. Fascists had edgy, black flags and cool logos, communists had the Hammer and Sickle and love for the Motherland, and imperialists had exploration and spreading Christianity. I wish capitalism and democracy had shit like that.

Tbf the Soviet system wasn't half bad. For a lot of people a lot of the basic necessities were taken care of and the cost of living was low. Until about the mid 1970's it wouldn't have been a bad place to live tbh. Even then the worst of the worst bits didn't really start kicking in until about the mid 80's.

[Atheris]

All the bad ideologies have dope-ass aesthetics. Fascists had edgy, black flags and cool logos, communists had the Hammer and Sickle and love for the Motherland, and imperialists had exploration and spreading Christianity. I wish capitalism and democracy had shit like that.

Capitalism has McDonalds

Yeah, sure, but it's kind of hard to take symbolism that can look really cool when the Golden Arches are in the background.

...now I want McDonald's fries.

[Dresderstan]

All the bad ideologies have dope-ass aesthetics. Fascists had edgy, black flags and cool logos, communists had the Hammer and Sickle and love for the Motherland, and imperialists had exploration and spreading Christianity. I wish capitalism and democracy had shit like that.

Capitalism has McDonalds

And Coke.

[The Marlborough]

No?

What?

Given the general love of authoritarian aesthetics, yes. It is very much a fetish type thing, love of uniforms and leather boots beating people down.

I don't have a fetish for beating people down, friendo. I am neither pro nor anti authoritarianism just as I am neither pro nor anti democracy.

[-Astoria-]

Capitalism has McDonalds

And Coke.

And cracking open a cold one of such.

[Atheris]

No?

What?

Given the general love of authoritarian aesthetics, yes. It is very much a fetish type thing, love of uniforms and leather boots beating people down.

I just like the way they look, man.

[Kowani]

Capitalism has McDonalds

And Coke.

And drug lords to ship said Coke.

[Loben III]

And Coke.

And drug lords to ship said Coke.

he meant the Soda.

[Shofercia]

Yes they would be. The people want freedom

Eh not exactly. Some want full democracy while a good chunk of the workers just want better benefits

Bingo!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/strikes-begin-belarus-opposition-leader-093109093.html

Looks like the protesters took my advice or something.

Problem is that she fled to Lithuania, which already makes the Russians mistrust her quite a bit. Lithuania loves to pick pointless fights with Russia, and her flight to Lithuania doesn't bode well for her credibility in Russia.

i mean theres always russia.

Belarus is not worth Russia losing EU business over. Just making him persona non grata is something unlikely to terribly offend Russia and I doubt it's going to get more severe than that.

Crimea was, why not Belarus? That said, you're right, banning Lukashenko from traveling is unlikely to elicit any strong emotions, since that's just lame trolling on the EU's part. It's not like Lukashenko can leave Belarus right now, and if he does, that'll be the end of his reign.

Oh ok. Still, I find it weird Lukashenko didn't appoint a new one.

Also, Belarus' transitional council is meeting today to select representatives that will negotiate with Lukashenko. Hopefully they approve of the referendum plan.

And he is going to rig said referendum. he will never give up any of his power.

Hence the suggestion for it to be monitored by the CoE and perhaps the CIS, acting as joint monitors, and having access to all voters and all ballot boxes, except for the ones in jail.

I have nothing against referendums but what is to stop him from rigging said referendum?

If he rigs it hard enough, it will backfire. Also, maybe they could invite Russia and European observers?

He really should. CIS-CoE joint mission. That way the CIS will prevent Western rigging, and CoE will prevent Eastern rigging.

The majority isn't going to accept no change. He has lost the support of the people, the military and the police.

Has he lost the military?

The military saying "we won't shoot protesters, but we'll beat them up if they go where they're not supposed to be" apparently means "he lost the military" for Lumen.

[Shofercia]

Kind of off-topic - They say the Belorussian language is closer to Polish and Ukrainian languages then to Russian. While others say its a mixture of Polish and Russian. So which is it. However, they do say only 20% of those in Belarus speak Belorussian. The majority tends to use Russian.

Useful Linky: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... ee.svg.png

Hopefully he stays in power. We have enough neo liberal regimes in the world thank you.

You clearly have no idea how evil a man he is

Name one evil thing that Lukashenko did that's more evil than private prisons in the US. Go ahead Lumen. Because as far as dictators go, Lukashenko's mild.

Some interesting news here folks:

Response of the Grodno City Executive Committee to the demands / Ответ Гродненского городского исполнительного комитета на требования (In Russian?)

That is extremely mild and very reasonable. I like it.

And Coke.

And drug lords to ship said Coke.

Hm. The fact that she apparently ran a state sponsored propaganda program in Franco's Spain doesn't speak too well of her CV. It would be easy to spin a "foreign puppet fascist" smear narrative out of that.
Also, she's really too old to be a national leader.

Oh, I don't think anyone (including Ms Survilla) sees the leaders of the BDR-in-exile as a serious political alternative for modern Belarus.

What typically happens in these cases is that the government-in-exile dissolves itself once democracy is 'restored' in its original home country, sometimes handing whatever state symbols it may be hanging on to 'back' to the new government. This is what largely happened in the Baltic States, and what also happened with the post-1939 Polish government-in-exile and the Spanish Republican government-in-exile; although in all of the latter cases the governments in exile represented states and or governments that had had much more significant backing than the BDR had ever had. Even the largely ignored post-WWII Polish government-in-exile held enough retrospective status that its last president Ryszard Kaczorowski was invited by Polish president Lech Kaczyński to join in the 2010 flight to Smolensk to recognise the 70th anniversary of the Katyn Massacre - with rather unfortunate consequences for both men. It's hard to see anyone in Minsk offering the same sort of status to Ivonka Survilla.

Anyway, hardly anyone knows or cares that the BDR Rada government-in-exile exists. It's of little consequence other than a historical curiosity.

Of rather more potential consequence is the existence of a very different unrecognised Belarusian body in exile.

What're the thoughts of the BAOC on the situation?

[The Archregimancy]

Oh, I don't think anyone (including Ms Survilla) sees the leaders of the BDR-in-exile as a serious political alternative for modern Belarus.

What typically happens in these cases is that the government-in-exile dissolves itself once democracy is 'restored' in its original home country, sometimes handing whatever state symbols it may be hanging on to 'back' to the new government. This is what largely happened in the Baltic States, and what also happened with the post-1939 Polish government-in-exile and the Spanish Republican government-in-exile; although in all of the latter cases the governments in exile represented states and or governments that had had much more significant backing than the BDR had ever had. Even the largely ignored post-WWII Polish government-in-exile held enough retrospective status that its last president Ryszard Kaczorowski was invited by Polish president Lech Kaczyński to join in the 2010 flight to Smolensk to recognise the 70th anniversary of the Katyn Massacre - with rather unfortunate consequences for both men. It's hard to see anyone in Minsk offering the same sort of status to Ivonka Survilla.

Anyway, hardly anyone knows or cares that the BDR Rada government-in-exile exists. It's of little consequence other than a historical curiosity.

Of rather more potential consequence is the existence of a very different unrecognised Belarusian body in exile.

What're the thoughts of the BAOC on the situation?

Official statement in original Belarusian: http://www.belapc.org/naviny---galounaa ... kaganarodu

Same statement run through Google Translate into English: http://translate.google.com/translate?j ... elapc.org/

It's a general statement of support for the people of Belarus and a clear swipe at the current Orthodox Church structure.

I don't really anticipate the BAOC gaining much traction; it's essentially an obscure group of exiles who were never recognised by Orthodoxy as a whole. But if the history of the Orthodox Church over the last c.250 years teaches us anything, it's that there's plenty of potential for jurisdictional mischief when nationalists decide to assert independence ecclesiastically as well as politically - and the BAOC is already asserting that the Ecumenical Patriarch's 2018 decree over Ukraine should also apply to Belarus given its historical status as part of the Kiev Metropolia.

It doesn't take much to imagine the Orthodox Church in Belarus splitting in three between Moscow, a new self-proclaimed independent jurisdiction in Minsk that petitions Constantinople for recognition, and parishes that decide to put themselves under the jurisdiction of the BAOC.

Belarus is not Ukraine, of course, so should this scenario come to pass - which I very much hope it doesn't - it's likely that parishes recognising Moscow would remain the overwhelming majority; but the potential for mischief is definitely there, and given the current state of relations between the Moscow and Constantinople patriarchates, it would do little to bring Orthodoxy together.

[Ethel mermania]

All the bad ideologies have dope-ass aesthetics. Fascists had edgy, black flags and cool logos, communists had the Hammer and Sickle and love for the Motherland, and imperialists had exploration and spreading Christianity. I wish capitalism and democracy had shit like that.

Tbf the Soviet system wasn't half bad. For a lot of people a lot of the basic necessities were taken care of and the cost of living was low. Until about the mid 1970's it wouldn't have been a bad place to live tbh. Even then the worst of the worst bits didn't really start kicking in until about the mid 80's.

Folks who I know who grew up in the ussr in the 60's and 70's would disagree with that statement.

[Solvokina]

No revolution is gonna happen. The protestors are going to be completely destroyed and there's no way around it. No sanctioning would stop the Belarus gov for their excessive force

[Solvokina]

You clearly have no idea how evil a man he is

Name one evil thing that Lukashenko did that's more evil than private prisons in the US. Go ahead Lumen. Because as far as dictators go, Lukashenko's mild.

I heavily dislike how people automatically go dictator bed, democracy gud. As far as dictators go Lukashenko is not that bad of one, he's just an Authoritarian like Assad or Putin. When it comes to democracy however I dislike western models as its vote for blue or red and get fucked either way due to corruption, neo-liberalism or shit progressive policies.

No, I meant a meeting between the council members themselves. Seems they already had it. They decided to elect a 7 man presidium which will in turn elect it's chairman. I believe they plan to start negotiations with Lukashenko on a referendum, new constitution, and who is president.

He’s not going to allow a fair election on any referendum or new constitution

And?

[Punished UMN]

Tbf the Soviet system wasn't half bad. For a lot of people a lot of the basic necessities were taken care of and the cost of living was low. Until about the mid 1970's it wouldn't have been a bad place to live tbh. Even then the worst of the worst bits didn't really start kicking in until about the mid 80's.

Folks who I know who grew up in the ussr in the 60's and 70's would disagree with that statement.

Anecdotes are not evidence:

Source: Pew Research Center, CONFIDENCE IN DEMOCRACY AND CAPITALISM WANES IN FORMER SOVIET UNION, 2011.

[Solvokina]

Folks who I know who grew up in the ussr in the 60's and 70's would disagree with that statement.

Anecdotes are not evidence:

Source: Pew Research Center, CONFIDENCE IN DEMOCRACY AND CAPITALISM WANES IN FORMER SOVIET UNION, 2011.

Yugo nostalgia be like 99%

[Picairn]

Anecdotes are not evidence:

(Image)

(Image)

(Image)

Source: Pew Research Center, CONFIDENCE IN DEMOCRACY AND CAPITALISM WANES IN FORMER SOVIET UNION, 2011.

Their disapproval of the direction their countries are heading to =/= their disapproval of democracy itself. Indeed, your own source says this:

There is a widespread perception that political and business elites have enjoyed the spoils of the last two decades, while average citizens have been left behind. Still, people in these three former Soviet republics have not turned their backs on democratic values; indeed, they embrace key features of democracy, such as a fair judiciary and free media. However, they do not believe their countries have fully developed these institutions.

Their views on Western countries are also overwhelmingly positive, except NATO:

Now ask whether they miss the brutality and oppression of the Soviet police state, and the results may turn 180 degrees completely.

[San Lumen]

Name one evil thing that Lukashenko did that's more evil than private prisons in the US. Go ahead Lumen. Because as far as dictators go, Lukashenko's mild.

I heavily dislike how people automatically go dictator bed, democracy gud. As far as dictators go Lukashenko is not that bad of one, he's just an Authoritarian like Assad or Putin. When it comes to democracy however I dislike western models as its vote for blue or red and get fucked either way due to corruption, neo-liberalism or shit progressive policies.

He’s not going to allow a fair election on any referendum or new constitution

And?

What do you mean and? A free and fair election isnt happening in Belarus

[Punished UMN]

Anecdotes are not evidence:

(Image)

(Image)

(Image)

Source: Pew Research Center, CONFIDENCE IN DEMOCRACY AND CAPITALISM WANES IN FORMER SOVIET UNION, 2011.

Their disapproval of the direction their countries are heading to =/= their disapproval of democracy itself. Indeed, your own source says this:

There is a widespread perception that political and business elites have enjoyed the spoils of the last two decades, while average citizens have been left behind. Still, people in these three former Soviet republics have not turned their backs on democratic values; indeed, they embrace key features of democracy, such as a fair judiciary and free media. However, they do not believe their countries have fully developed these institutions.

Their views on Western countries are also overwhelmingly positive, except NATO:

Now ask whether they miss the brutality and oppression of the Soviet police state, and the results may turn 180 degrees completely.

When 50% said they wanted the USSR back, that's what you're looking for.

[Picairn]

When 50% said they wanted the USSR back, that's what you're looking for.

Now ask whether they miss the brutality and oppression of the Soviet police state, and the results may turn 180 degrees completely.

[Shofercia]

When 50% said they wanted the USSR back, that's what you're looking for.

Now ask whether they miss the brutality and oppression of the Soviet police state, and the results may turn 180 degrees completely.

After the Great Patriotic War, which ended in 1945, most of the brutality and oppression ended. Ironically, Stalin's ruthlessness in the 1930s prepared the Soviet People for war with Nazi Germany, and considering that the extreme majority of Slavic POWs died in Nazi prisons, it's rather clear what fate awaited us if Nazis won WWII.

The period 1945-1982 wasn't known for its many atrocities in the USSR, at least not insofar as the extreme majority of the citizens of the USSR were concerned. Of course if you're going to compare Nazi brutality to any other time period in Russia, we'd all say that Nazis were the worst, even when compared to Mongols. But after 1945? Seems to me that's the USSR that most people remember, that's the USSR that lasted the longest, and that's the USSR that most are comparing, and favoring over democracy. 50% in favor of USSR, 27% in favor of modern democracy. Of course if the self-proclaimed leaders of modern democracy continue to ignore one referendum after another, they shouldn't act surprised when the people respond accordingly.

[Solvokina]

Only thing I don't agree with is how Belarus detainees are treated which is brutal torture, although I do have doubts as these are mainly from people with "experience" or from biased news, some parts even unbelievable such as "hallways full of blood". Lukashenko hasn't seemed to have done anything evil yet, he is just a dictator by holding onto his position lmao. Instead of fooling the public why don't dictators just abolish their democratic system if they aren't going to bother using it

[Mannixa Prime]

I really don’t understand why the EU and America can not focus on their own problems. This is why the west must end the practice of electing corporate controlled neoliberal/neoconservative puppets.

How does interfering in another countries affairs help the environment? Poor people? I could go on and on.

Leave states like Belarus, Syria and Iran alone.