Possible Revolution in Belarus after Rigged election

[Post War America]

Oh ok. Still, I find it weird Lukashenko didn't appoint a new one.

Also, Belarus' transitional council is meeting today to select representatives that will negotiate with Lukashenko. Hopefully they approve of the referendum plan.

And he is going to rig said referendum. he will never give up any of his power.

Unfortunately, Referenda are what democracy actually looks like. They could try and oust him by force but that would deligitimize their claims to be desiring of a free and democratic society. Unless by free we mean the markets and by democratic we mean neoliberal.

[San Lumen]

And he is going to rig said referendum. he will never give up any of his power.

Unfortunately, Referenda are what democracy actually looks like. They could try and oust him by force but that would deligitimize their claims to be desiring of a free and democratic society. Unless by free we mean the markets and by democratic we mean neoliberal.

I have nothing against referendums but what is to stop him from rigging said referendum?

[Exalted Inquellian State]

Unfortunately, Referenda are what democracy actually looks like. They could try and oust him by force but that would deligitimize their claims to be desiring of a free and democratic society. Unless by free we mean the markets and by democratic we mean neoliberal.

I have nothing against referendums but what is to stop him from rigging said referendum?

If he rigs it hard enough, it will backfire. Also, maybe they could invite Russia and European observers?

[Post War America]

Unfortunately, Referenda are what democracy actually looks like. They could try and oust him by force but that would deligitimize their claims to be desiring of a free and democratic society. Unless by free we mean the markets and by democratic we mean neoliberal.

I have nothing against referendums but what is to stop him from rigging said referendum?

Nothing, you'll just have to trust the system. At least if liberal democracy is what you're aiming for. Because if this turns violent, liberal democracy is one of the least likely outcomes.

[San Lumen]

I have nothing against referendums but what is to stop him from rigging said referendum?

Nothing, you'll just have to trust the system. At least if liberal democracy is what you're aiming for. Because if this turns violent, liberal democracy is one of the least likely outcomes.

The people have no confidence in him. He controls the election commission. There is no way he allows a referendum that reduces his power to get a majority vote.

[Post War America]

Nothing, you'll just have to trust the system. At least if liberal democracy is what you're aiming for. Because if this turns violent, liberal democracy is one of the least likely outcomes.

The people have no confidence in him. He controls the election commission. There is no way he allows a referendum that reduces his power to get a majority vote.

Yep, and that sucks, unfortunately for you, bloody revolutions have a long track record of establishing dictatorships.

[San Lumen]

The people have no confidence in him. He controls the election commission. There is no way he allows a referendum that reduces his power to get a majority vote.

Yep, and that sucks, unfortunately for you, bloody revolutions have a long track record of establishing dictatorships.

Therefore agreeing to a referendum would be stupid knowing he won't allow a free and fair election

[Post War America]

Yep, and that sucks, unfortunately for you, bloody revolutions have a long track record of establishing dictatorships.

Therefore agreeing to a referendum would be stupid knowing he won't allow a free and fair election

Then they'd have to either, abandon the idea of liberal democracy, or alternative launch a bloody rebellion that will have a small chance of creating one, at the cost of tens of thousands of lives.

[San Lumen]

Therefore agreeing to a referendum would be stupid knowing he won't allow a free and fair election

Then they'd have to either, abandon the idea of liberal democracy, or alternative launch a bloody rebellion that will have a small chance of creating one, at the cost of tens of thousands of lives.

Why would they abandon the idea of liberal democracy? Luka will never allow a free and fair election

[Post War America]

Then they'd have to either, abandon the idea of liberal democracy, or alternative launch a bloody rebellion that will have a small chance of creating one, at the cost of tens of thousands of lives.

Why would they abandon the idea of liberal democracy? Luka will never allow a free and fair election

Because if Lukashenko is unwilling to step down, they will have to settle on some reforms, or again, launch of bloody rebellion to remove him from power, running the not insignificant risk that Lukashenko will be replaced by a dictator as bad, if not worse than him. The chances of a liberal democracy arising from violent revolution is vanishingly small.

[Greater Cosmicium]

Then they'd have to either, abandon the idea of liberal democracy, or alternative launch a bloody rebellion that will have a small chance of creating one, at the cost of tens of thousands of lives.

Why would they abandon the idea of liberal democracy? Luka will never allow a free and fair election

Because the only way to get Lukashenko out if he doesn't allow free elections is through a violent revolution, that will inevitably result in many deaths, perhaps into the thousands. That goes contrary to the idea of liberal democracy.

[San Lumen]

Why would they abandon the idea of liberal democracy? Luka will never allow a free and fair election

Because if Lukashenko is unwilling to step down, they will have to settle on some reforms, or again, launch of bloody rebellion to remove him from power, running the not insignificant risk that Lukashenko will be replaced by a dictator as bad, if not worse than him. The chances of a liberal democracy arising from violent revolution is vanishingly small.

He will never step aside.

[Post War America]

Because if Lukashenko is unwilling to step down, they will have to settle on some reforms, or again, launch of bloody rebellion to remove him from power, running the not insignificant risk that Lukashenko will be replaced by a dictator as bad, if not worse than him. The chances of a liberal democracy arising from violent revolution is vanishingly small.

He will never step aside.

Then the options presented are the only ones that can realistically be taken. Acquiesce, settle on some minor reforms, or play the revolution roulette. None of them work like this romantic idea of a revolution you seem to be operating under, but unfortunately reality doesn't work like a television show.

[San Lumen]

He will never step aside.

Then the options presented are the only ones that can realistically be taken. Acquiesce, settle on some minor reforms, or play the revolution roulette. None of them work like this romantic idea of a revolution you seem to be operating under, but unfortunately reality doesn't work like a television show.

Minor reforms arent going to be good enough for a population that hates him.

[Post War America]

Then the options presented are the only ones that can realistically be taken. Acquiesce, settle on some minor reforms, or play the revolution roulette. None of them work like this romantic idea of a revolution you seem to be operating under, but unfortunately reality doesn't work like a television show.

Minor reforms arent going to be good enough for a population that hates him.

Than that leaves acquiescence or revolution.

No change, or a gamble where the bid is thousands of lives, and the chances of getting screwed in the end are high.

[San Lumen]

Minor reforms arent going to be good enough for a population that hates him.

Than that leaves acquiescence or revolution.

No change, or a gamble where the bid is thousands of lives, and the chances of getting screwed in the end are high.

The majority isn't going to accept no change. He has lost the support of the people, the military and the police.

[Post War America]

Than that leaves acquiescence or revolution.

No change, or a gamble where the bid is thousands of lives, and the chances of getting screwed in the end are high.

The majority isn't going to accept no change. He has lost the support of the people, the military and the police.

But he has not lost the support of his praetorian guard, as long as he has that a bloodless revolution is impossible. If revolutions get bloody there is a strong tendency for a dictatorship to emerge.

[San Lumen]

The majority isn't going to accept no change. He has lost the support of the people, the military and the police.

But he has not lost the support of his praetorian guard, as long as he has that a bloodless revolution is impossible. If revolutions get bloody there is a strong tendency for a dictatorship to emerge.

Belarus already is a dictatorship

[Post War America]

But he has not lost the support of his praetorian guard, as long as he has that a bloodless revolution is impossible. If revolutions get bloody there is a strong tendency for a dictatorship to emerge.

Belarus already is a dictatorship

Dictatorships can replace other Dictatorships you know.

[Aureumterra]

Belarus already is a dictatorship

Dictatorships can replace other Dictatorships you know.

Case in point the Russian Revolution

[Rio Cana]

Been checking the news. A Belarus diplomat that represents Belarus in Slovakia resigned. The national theater group is on strike since the government fired the director of the national theater due to his support of the protesters. Also, more factory workers are striking. Some of those factories are crucial to the Belarus economy. Having said that, many of those companies are state owned. So those workers need to be very careful. They could be throwing themselves over the unemployment cliff. While a democratic Belarus would be nice it does mean that if there were any political change that there economy would most likely need to be overhauled. This would most likely involve selling off all those state run companies. In other words, an economic repeat of what happened with most of the former Warsaw nations in Belarus. Thus, many would have to go find work in Western Europe.

[Loben III]

Unfortunately, Referenda are what democracy actually looks like. They could try and oust him by force but that would deligitimize their claims to be desiring of a free and democratic society. Unless by free we mean the markets and by democratic we mean neoliberal.

I have nothing against referendums but what is to stop him from rigging said referendum?

The council of Europe.

[Loben III]

Than that leaves acquiescence or revolution.

No change, or a gamble where the bid is thousands of lives, and the chances of getting screwed in the end are high.

The majority isn't going to accept no change. He has lost the support of the people, the military and the police.

Has he lost the military?

[San Lumen]

I have nothing against referendums but what is to stop him from rigging said referendum?

The council of Europe.

What is the council of Europe?

[Rio Cana]

The council of Europe.

What is the council of Europe?

The Council of Europe, Europe's oldest political body, aims to uphold human rights, democracy and the rule of law across the continent. It emerged in 1949.