Possible Revolution in Belarus after Rigged election

[Kowani]

The likelihood is remote. Though it would be interesting to see a female dictator.

Gender Equality for Dictators! Woke percentage: over 9000!

Sorry, couldn't resist

In the words of Vaush: "I will not be the wokest person in the fucking mass graves."

[Kingdom of Mooshland]

[San Lumen]

We shall see. The main opposition candidate says she has proof she won and is encouraging her supporters to protest

I hope to see the streets crowded with people and video of his palace being attacked

If she truly won and cared about her country why would she insight protests and unrest, it would only be more trouble for hr to clean up if she did become the leader and the protest do happen.

How else os Lukashenko going to be removed?

[Greater Cosmicium]

If she truly won and cared about her country why would she insight protests and unrest, it would only be more trouble for hr to clean up if she did become the leader and the protest do happen.

How else os Lukashenko going to be removed?

As too many posters have said already, not in a clean, bloodless way. Overthrows of leaders are rarely peaceful (like this attempt isn't), and if Lukashenko does get forced to resign, you can expect even more bloodshed, economic collapse, an even more authoritarian leader, or Russia stepping in to directly intervene. Or two or several of those things.

Euromaidan never worked in Ukraine and left it effectively a failed state with Russia and affiliated states controlling a big chunk of territory. Any democratic "revolution" in Belarus will probably go a similar way in the real world.

[The Archregimancy]

Yep. Looks like Lukashenko's rule will end in a whimper, not a bang. And imagine if the voters restore the Belarusian Democratic Republic, which would be in the top 10 comebacks in history.

I don't know if this has come up previously in the thread, and sincere apologies if it has and I'm repeating points that have been made before, but the Belarusian Democratic Republic still exists as a government-in-exile; indeed, is currently the oldest extant self-proclaimed government-in-exile on the planet.

When Belarus became independent in the wake of the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the BDR rada considered dissolving itself - following the lead of the Baltic State governments-in-exile - but decided not to follow through after the election of Lukashenko as president. They didn't want to cede legitimacy to someone they considered to be a little too authoritarian for their tastes; whatever we think about the BDR's own legitimacy, they weren't far wrong on that one.

Which all, of course, means that if there's a BDR government-in-exile, then there's also currently a sitting president of that body.

Ladies, gentlemen, and non-binary others, I give you the president of the Belarusian Democratic Republic, Ivonka Survilla.

[Baltenstein]

How else os Lukashenko going to be removed?

As too many posters have said already, not in a clean, bloodless way. Overthrows of leaders are rarely peaceful (like this attempt isn't), and if Lukashenko does get forced to resign, you can expect even more bloodshed, economic collapse, an even more authoritarian leader, or Russia stepping in to directly intervene. Or two or several of those things.

Euromaidan never worked in Ukraine and left it effectively a failed state with Russia and affiliated states controlling a big chunk of territory. Any democratic "revolution" in Belarus will probably go a similar way in the real world.

And as others have also said, a Russian intervention is unlikely because there's no scenario where Russia comes out as a winner should they intervene.

The situation is considerably different than Ukraine, where, upon Yanukovich's flight from Kiev, Putin deduced, rightly or wrongly, that he had irreversibly lost Ukraine, so he might at least grab some territories of strategic importance and rain on the Ukrainians' parade a bit while at it.

[Baltenstein]

Yep. Looks like Lukashenko's rule will end in a whimper, not a bang. And imagine if the voters restore the Belarusian Democratic Republic, which would be in the top 10 comebacks in history.

I don't know if this has come up previously in the thread, and sincere apologies if it has and I'm repeating points that have been made before, but the Belarusian Democratic Republic still exists as a government-in-exile; indeed, is currently the oldest extant self-proclaimed government-in-exile on the planet.

When Belarus became independent in the wake of the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the BDR rada considered dissolving itself - following the lead of the Baltic State governments-in-exile - but decided not to follow through after the election of Lukashenko as president. They didn't want to cede legitimacy to someone they considered to be a little too authoritarian for their tastes; whatever we think about the BDR's own legitimacy, they weren't far wrong on that one.

Which all, of course, means that if there's a BDR government-in-exile, then there's also currently a sitting president of that body.

Ladies, gentlemen, and non-binary others, I give you the president of the Belarusian Democratic Republic, Ivonka Survilla.

Hm. The fact that she apparently ran a state sponsored propaganda program in Franco's Spain doesn't speak too well of her CV. It would be easy to spin a "foreign puppet fascist" smear narrative out of that.
Also, she's really too old to be a national leader.

[Thermodolia]

As too many posters have said already, not in a clean, bloodless way. Overthrows of leaders are rarely peaceful (like this attempt isn't), and if Lukashenko does get forced to resign, you can expect even more bloodshed, economic collapse, an even more authoritarian leader, or Russia stepping in to directly intervene. Or two or several of those things.

Euromaidan never worked in Ukraine and left it effectively a failed state with Russia and affiliated states controlling a big chunk of territory. Any democratic "revolution" in Belarus will probably go a similar way in the real world.

And as others have also said, a Russian intervention is unlikely because there's no scenario where Russia comes out as a winner should they intervene.

Russia could definitely come out as the winner if they intervened. Especially if they moved in deposed Lukashenko and installed someone else.

[Baltenstein]

And as others have also said, a Russian intervention is unlikely because there's no scenario where Russia comes out as a winner should they intervene.

Russia could definitely come out as the winner if they intervened. Especially if they moved in deposed Lukashenko and installed someone else.

Such a move would turn them from friendly neighbor to hated invader in an instant. And how would they keep such a situation sustainable? By entertaining a costly permanent military occupation?

[Loben III]

Russia could definitely come out as the winner if they intervened. Especially if they moved in deposed Lukashenko and installed someone else.

Such a move would turn them from friendly neighbor to hated invader in an instant. And how would they keep such a situation sustainable? By entertaining a costly permanent military occupation?

Would they really be so hated?

[-Astoria-]

Mary Tudor was the last one in the Anglosphere.

Thatcher (kind of).

[Post War America]

If she truly won and cared about her country why would she insight protests and unrest, it would only be more trouble for hr to clean up if she did become the leader and the protest do happen.

How else os Lukashenko going to be removed?

A lot of bloodshed, with a good chance somebody worse will wind up in charge when all is said and done. Revolutions are rarely so romantic as you want them to be Lumen, and it is rather annoying that your cheerleading for them, when you won't suffer the consequences.

[San Lumen]

Such a move would turn them from friendly neighbor to hated invader in an instant. And how would they keep such a situation sustainable? By entertaining a costly permanent military occupation?

Would they really be so hated?

Yes they would be. The people want freedom

[Thermodolia]

Russia could definitely come out as the winner if they intervened. Especially if they moved in deposed Lukashenko and installed someone else.

Such a move would turn them from friendly neighbor to hated invader in an instant. And how would they keep such a situation sustainable? By entertaining a costly permanent military occupation?

Erm no. Russia toppling a hated dictator would only make Belarusians support Russia more not less.

[Thermodolia]

Would they really be so hated?

Yes they would be. The people want freedom

Eh not exactly. Some want full democracy while a good chunk of the workers just want better benefits

[Loben III]

Would they really be so hated?

Yes they would be. The people want freedom

The people being protestors who couldn’t get the city of Minsk off it’s ass for said protest.

[Loben III]

Such a move would turn them from friendly neighbor to hated invader in an instant. And how would they keep such a situation sustainable? By entertaining a costly permanent military occupation?

Erm no. Russia toppling a hated dictator would only make Belarusians support Russia more not less.

They say hostile invader and I say armed immigrant.

[The Archregimancy]

I don't know if this has come up previously in the thread, and sincere apologies if it has and I'm repeating points that have been made before, but the Belarusian Democratic Republic still exists as a government-in-exile; indeed, is currently the oldest extant self-proclaimed government-in-exile on the planet.

When Belarus became independent in the wake of the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the BDR rada considered dissolving itself - following the lead of the Baltic State governments-in-exile - but decided not to follow through after the election of Lukashenko as president. They didn't want to cede legitimacy to someone they considered to be a little too authoritarian for their tastes; whatever we think about the BDR's own legitimacy, they weren't far wrong on that one.

Which all, of course, means that if there's a BDR government-in-exile, then there's also currently a sitting president of that body.

Ladies, gentlemen, and non-binary others, I give you the president of the Belarusian Democratic Republic, Ivonka Survilla.

Hm. The fact that she apparently ran a state sponsored propaganda program in Franco's Spain doesn't speak too well of her CV. It would be easy to spin a "foreign puppet fascist" smear narrative out of that.
Also, she's really too old to be a national leader.

Oh, I don't think anyone (including Ms Survilla) sees the leaders of the BDR-in-exile as a serious political alternative for modern Belarus.

What typically happens in these cases is that the government-in-exile dissolves itself once democracy is 'restored' in its original home country, sometimes handing whatever state symbols it may be hanging on to 'back' to the new government. This is what largely happened in the Baltic States, and what also happened with the post-1939 Polish government-in-exile and the Spanish Republican government-in-exile; although in all of the latter cases the governments in exile represented states and or governments that had had much more significant backing than the BDR had ever had. Even the largely ignored post-WWII Polish government-in-exile held enough retrospective status that its last president Ryszard Kaczorowski was invited by Polish president Lech Kaczyński to join in the 2010 flight to Smolensk to recognise the 70th anniversary of the Katyn Massacre - with rather unfortunate consequences for both men. It's hard to see anyone in Minsk offering the same sort of status to Ivonka Survilla.

Anyway, hardly anyone knows or cares that the BDR Rada government-in-exile exists. It's of little consequence other than a historical curiosity.

Of rather more potential consequence is the existence of a very different unrecognised Belarusian body in exile.

[Exalted Inquellian State]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/strikes- ... 09093.html

Looks like the protesters took my advice or something.

[Thermodolia]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/strikes-begin-belarus-opposition-leader-093109093.html

Looks like the protesters took my advice or something.

Smart move on their part

[Valrifell]

He will be unwelcome in Europe and shunned by the rest of continent. A country is under no obligation to allow a foreign leader into their borders.

at the rate things are escalating its starting to become difficult to see how he survives

i mean theres always russia.

Belarus is not worth Russia losing EU business over. Just making him persona non grata is something unlikely to terribly offend Russia and I doubt it's going to get more severe than that.

[Exalted Inquellian State]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/strikes-begin-belarus-opposition-leader-093109093.html

Looks like the protesters took my advice or something.

Smart move on their part

Also, is it a good or bad sign that it's been nearly 24 hours and Belarus still hasn't appointed a new prime minister?

[Thermodolia]

Smart move on their part

Also, is it a good or bad sign that it's been nearly 24 hours and Belarus still hasn't appointed a new prime minister?

It’s neither. The Prime Minister doesn’t actually have any real power. Belarus is a Presidential Republic.

[Exalted Inquellian State]

Also, is it a good or bad sign that it's been nearly 24 hours and Belarus still hasn't appointed a new prime minister?

It’s neither. The Prime Minister doesn’t actually have any real power. Belarus is a Presidential Republic.

Oh ok. Still, I find it weird Lukashenko didn't appoint a new one.

Also, Belarus' transitional council is meeting today to select representatives that will negotiate with Lukashenko. Hopefully they approve of the referendum plan.

[San Lumen]

It’s neither. The Prime Minister doesn’t actually have any real power. Belarus is a Presidential Republic.

Oh ok. Still, I find it weird Lukashenko didn't appoint a new one.

Also, Belarus' transitional council is meeting today to select representatives that will negotiate with Lukashenko. Hopefully they approve of the referendum plan.

And he is going to rig said referendum. he will never give up any of his power.