Possible Revolution in Belarus after Rigged election

[Ors Might]

While I’m all for the idea of the people kicking the shit out of a dictator, fighting a war you simply don’t have the means to fight and will only end in your bloodshed is fucking stupid.

[Shofercia]

Good luck with that. Either Lukashenko's loyal forces in the palace will make minced meat out of the people attempting to throw him out, or the country will be left pretty much ungovernable. Either way, Belarus would enter a political crisis, like Ukraine did.

Not if tens of thousands beat down the gates like in Jack Ryan.

Are you referring to the Hungarian Revolt? Because, uhh, you do know how that one ended, right? They all died, and the dictatorship was restored.

The Foreign Minister of West Germany recommended that the people of Eastern Europe be discouraged from "taking dramatic action which might have disastrous consequences for themselves". The Secretary-General of NATO called the Hungarian revolt "the collective suicide of a whole people". In a newspaper interview in 1957, Khrushchev commented "support by United States ... is rather in the nature of the support that the rope gives to a hanged man"

Not if tens of thousands beat down the gates like in Jack Ryan.

Are we still letting our idea of what a revolution looks like from a fictional television show now?

That implies that Lumen didn't fantasize about revolutions based on fictional shows and characters earlier, which is simply untrue.

The result is the same, because I'd imagine the palace guards have a lot of ammunition in store, except there'd be way more minced meat made out of the people who broke down the gates. And if they fall somehow, expect other military units to intervene. Also, I'd think they might have slight problems gathering "tens of thousands" of people, not many are willing to get cut down by said palace guards to overthrow somebody, it's just way too dangerous, reality doesn't work like in the romanticized fantasy of TV shows.

And these people really want the blood of tens of thousands on their hands? They are the cowards for sticking by him. His bodyguards and security forces should walk out on him as should anyone who works for him.

They're cowards because they want to be able to feed their families? Do you know what the word "coward" means?

Just because you think they should does not fucking mean they will, you need to get out of this fantasy world of yours and get back to reality, that ain't fucking happening chief.

Because they are cowards who blindly support a monster for reasons I can’t fathom.

Live a year as an average citizen of Ukraine, or a Libyan refugee, and you'll suddenly be able to fathom those reasons.

They should.

That's not how Praetorian Guards work unfortunately. They are generally paid and treated well specifically to engender extreme loyalty. The only way they defect is if somebody makes them a better offer, and I don't me "don't you think liberal democracy is just swell" or some other ideological platitude. I mean legitimate financial benefits for them or their families, which will usually result in another dictatorship. Otherwise you're going to have to fight through them, and that means a protracted and bloody civil war.

That also won't work in Belarus, because the Belarussian version of the Praetorian Guards is steadfastly loyal, even when it comes to much better offers. They're also quite patient, and aren't going to overthrow someone who'll be gone in their lifetime due to actual natural causes.

[Shofercia]

Because they are cowards who blindly support a monster for reasons I can’t fathom.

You just don't fucking get it do you? You don't fucking understand how this shit works, maybe you should keep your fucking nose out of shit you don't know nothing about, the only cowards was your precious "leader" who fled the country and the people calling for a revolution like you.

It's very easy to call for a revolution in an air conditioned room from another country.

That's not how Praetorian Guards work unfortunately. They are generally paid and treated well specifically to engender extreme loyalty. The only way they defect is if somebody makes them a better offer, and I don't me "don't you think liberal democracy is just swell" or some other ideological platitude. I mean legitimate financial benefits for them or their families, which will usually result in another dictatorship. Otherwise you're going to have to fight through them, and that means a protracted and bloody civil war.

Screw their money. Blindly supporting him after what he’s done makes them even worse. They should all quit and join the protests. Everyone who works at his palace should walk out to. Let him clean his own place and make his own meals. Break stuff on the way out too.

So they should switch a working government for one of either anarchy or dictatorship. Or they could spend the next few decades building democracy. Hmm, I wonder, which is the better choice...

Easy for somebody so far away, and so disconnected to say. Its not like your family's livelihood relies on you remaining in the favor and service of Lukashenko.

Yeah the heck with thr majority of the population. They are cowards and even worse monsters than him for blindly supporting him. They should quit.

There's no proof that the majority supports the revolutionary leaders either.

Do something about it and get off your fucking soapbox.

What am I supposed to do about it?

Study the actual History of Belarus before commenting on it.

[Shofercia]

Yeah the heck with thr majority of the population. They are cowards and even worse monsters than him for blindly supporting him. They should quit.

But they simply won’t, for reasons like they really don’t care about what Lukashenko is doing.

They care, but Lukashenko didn't do anything that's super bad. He rigged an election, which, by Eastern European standards, is bad, but not super bad.

But they simply won’t, for reasons like they really don’t care about what Lukashenko is doing.

They are even worse monsters and they ought to be ashamed of themselves but it must be nice to have such blind loyalty and not care about the suffering of the populous.

They've been living under Lukashenko for over three decades now. Yes he rigged an election, yes, it was bad, but compared to actual suffering, like the suffering that people in Yemen are experiencing, this is rather mild. The people aren't starving, most aren't even hungry, most have decent jobs, good healthcare system, a better future for their kids, decent education by European standards, good by US standards, and they have freedom of movement. This isn't some third world shit hole.

Putin is not acting right now because these
1. Unlike Yanukovych, Lukashenko had a recent falling-out of relations with Putin
2. The pro-democracy side isn't anti-Russian

Putin is keeping foreign influence out of Belarus, and counterbalancing the one that's already in Belarus, and Lukashenko can deal with internal issues on his own.

Ah yes they should just endanger their families, their children because those lives mean nothing right? Such a hero and moralistic.

What’s he going to do if every single one of them walked out on him and joined the protests?

Do you seriously not comprehend how Praetorian Guards work?

[Glorious Hong Kong]

Fun fact: Russian is actually more widely spoken in Belarus than Belarusian even though most Belarusians identify Belarusian as their mother tongue. The latter is considered to be the language of uneducated peasants. In Ukraine, Ukrainian is slightly more dominant than Russian although stark geographic differences exist between the East and the West, and the cities and the countryside.

One thing I've noticed from all the footage is that the protesters are predominantly young and many of them are women. If this is what feminism looks like, I support it. Revolution of their Times!

[Punished UMN]

Good luck with that. Either Lukashenko's loyal forces in the palace will make minced meat out of the people attempting to throw him out, or the country will be left pretty much ungovernable. Either way, Belarus would enter a political crisis, like Ukraine did.

Not if tens of thousands beat down the gates like in Jack Ryan.

Why is it that the only political analogies you are capable of making references to American television shows and books?

[Kowani]

Not if tens of thousands beat down the gates like in Jack Ryan.

Why is it that the only political analogies you are capable of making references to American television shows and books?

This is what substitutes for political theory now.

The Revolution shall not be Televised!

[Novus America]

While I’m all for the idea of the people kicking the shit out of a dictator, fighting a war you simply don’t have the means to fight and will only end in your bloodshed is fucking stupid.

This. I am not even against war, or dying for a worthy enough cause. But not starting one you have no reasonable hope of doing more good than harm. I obviously have no love of Lukashenko, and if the people can remove him I will be fine with that. But that simply does not seem realistic at this point. And certainly foreign military intervention is not a good option here.

[Novus America]

Again that argument is only meaningful in ML ideology, not outside it.
Saying “but other people are authoritarian too” does not mean you are not.

But okay, so you admit Lukashenko is a bad guy? That is something.
But your alternative being worse is based on the assumption those opposing him are neoliberals controlled by the CIA, despite nothing to show that is the case (actually it seems some opposing him actually are socialists).

Now if you say a foreign military attack is worse, I actually would agree with you.

But you simplify it too much, it is not a simple dichotomy.

Okay, and my ideology is correct. You are trying to handwave away objective reality.

Do you actually think that a attempted 'revolution' in a country America has interests in against a leader aligned with America's geopolitical enemies is not being influenced by the CIA? The CIA has done this sort of color revolution stuff in the past and they'll do it again. Realistically what is the alternative to Lukashenko that isn't an American puppet government?

“My ideology is correct” is just a thought terminating cliche, not a meaningful argument or statement.
But whatever, that is going nowhere fast.

But on to the next part do you have any idea HOW influence works? Again ther is no magical mind control machine at Langley. If the US had such power, and was willing to use it. We would obviously have no enemies left at all!

But we do not.
And no, the CIA is simply not that powerful to be involved in everything. The US has interests of some sort in most places, but not equal power in them. And Belarus is hardly top priority. And actually the US was on pretty decent terms with Lukashenko before this.
This has put us in an awkward spot, it has not helped us. So why would we, even if we could?
And how could we even if we wanted to? Again backing something already in progress is quite different than starting it, and we are not aggressively backing this either. I mean we cannot condone Lukashenko’s actions obviously, we have no real choice but to be critical of what he has done here, but that hardly indicates active involvement, let alone being the primary cause. The CIA does not “do” Color Revolutions, it does not have that power. Sure various US agencies (the CIA is not the only or even most influential US agency) have supported some such revolutions, but again supporting =/= causing.

Just because you support something succeeding once it is already in play, and likely to win is not the same a conjuring it out of thin air.

The US has very little power or leverage in Belarus. We do not have close ties to the military, security and economic establishment. We do not have much ability to influence things there. Again the CIA is just people. They do not have super powers. They cannot make people do what they do not want to do. They can provide information, funding and material support, but we have have no evidence of them doing that here. If I walked up to you and offered you some
information and money to support a revolution would that topple a government to benefit me alone? Of course not. Because you would not be interested and even if you were you lack the power to do it.

Realistically no alternative to Lukashenko is an American puppet government! What makes you think the people oppsing him are loyal to the US? How would we control them? Again we do not have many people there loyal to us.

[Shofercia]

Okay, and my ideology is correct. You are trying to handwave away objective reality.

Do you actually think that a attempted 'revolution' in a country America has interests in against a leader aligned with America's geopolitical enemies is not being influenced by the CIA? The CIA has done this sort of color revolution stuff in the past and they'll do it again. Realistically what is the alternative to Lukashenko that isn't an American puppet government?

“My ideology is correct” is just a thought terminating cliche, not a meaningful argument or statement.
But whatever, that is going nowhere fast.

But on to the next part do you have any idea HOW influence works? Again ther is no magical mind control machine at Langley. If the US had such power, and was willing to use it. We would obviously have no enemies left at all!

But we do not.
And no, the CIA is simply not that powerful to be involved in everything. The US has interests of some sort in most places, but not equal power in them. And Belarus is hardly top priority. And actually the US was on pretty decent terms with Lukashenko before this.
This has put us in an awkward spot, it has not helped us. So why would we, even if we could?
And how could we even if we wanted to? Again backing something already in progress is quite different than starting it, and we are not aggressively backing this either. I mean we cannot condone Lukashenko’s actions obviously, we have no real choice but to be critical of what he has done here, but that hardly indicates active involvement, let alone being the primary cause. The CIA does not “do” Color Revolutions, it does not have that power. Sure various US agencies (the CIA is not the only or even most influential US agency) have supported some such revolutions, but again supporting =/= causing.

Just because you support something succeeding once it is already in play, and likely to win is not the same a conjuring it out of thin air.

The US has very little power or leverage in Belarus. We do not have close ties to the military, security and economic establishment. We do not have much ability to influence things there. Again the CIA is just people. They do not have super powers. They cannot make people do what they do not want to do. They can provide information, funding and material support, but we have have no evidence of them doing that here. If I walked up to you and offered you some
information and money to support a revolution would that topple a government to benefit me alone? Of course not. Because you would not be interested and even if you were you lack the power to do it.

Realistically no alternative to Lukashenko is an American puppet government! What makes you think the people oppsing him are loyal to the US? How would we control them? Again we do not have many people there loyal to us.

So why's the US Number 2 Diplomat discussing Belarus? From Reuters:

No. 2 U.S. diplomat to discuss Belarus in talks in Russia on Tuesday: envoy...
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun will travel to Moscow on Tuesday and hold talks with senior Russian officials about the crisis in Belarus, arms control and North Korea, U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan said. The envoy said on Monday Washington was deeply concerned by what he said was a seriously flawed Aug. 9 presidential election in Belarus, a close ally of Russia, and by the police crackdown and rights abuses that followed.

You keep saying how there's no US interest here, so why send number two?

[Kowani]

Belarusian Opposition Leaser facing charges carrying 5 years in prison.

[Loben III]

Belarusian Opposition Leaser facing charges carrying 5 years in prison.

Well that’s settled then.

[Panslavicland]

Belarusian Opposition Leaser facing charges carrying 5 years in prison.

Good. Its time that these people learn that actions against the state have consequences.

[San Lumen]

Belarusian Opposition Leaser facing charges carrying 5 years in prison.

Good. Its time that these people learn that actions against the state have consequences.

Yeah who cares if it’s a dictatorial one party state. Just shut up and accept the election was rigged and you have no rights

[Dresderstan]

Good. Its time that these people learn that actions against the state have consequences.

Yeah who cares if it’s a dictatorial one party state. Just shut up and accept the election was rigged and you have no rights

[Exalted Inquellian State]

Good. Its time that these people learn that actions against the state have consequences.

Yeah who cares if it’s a dictatorial one party state. Just shut up and accept the election was rigged and you have no rights

Lumen, I can understand you, but it's over.

[San Lumen]

Yeah who cares if it’s a dictatorial one party state. Just shut up and accept the election was rigged and you have no rights

Lumen, I can understand you, but it's over.

Sadly. Maybe when Lukashenko leaves office Belarus will become a democracy like Albania when Hoxva died.

[Novus America]

Belarusian Opposition Leaser facing charges carrying 5 years in prison.

Good. Its time that these people learn that actions against the state have consequences.

What exactly did she do “against the state”. She criticized the leader sure, but why should the be illegal? And it appears she was arrested for refusing to be rendered stateless (exiling your own citizens from your country is a huge violation of international law BTW).
She actually did a very brave thing, willing to risk her life and freedoms for her beliefs.

Would you do the same?

[Novus America]

Yeah who cares if it’s a dictatorial one party state. Just shut up and accept the election was rigged and you have no rights

Lumen, I can understand you, but it's over.

Yes. I agree. Look what Lukashenko did here is not in any way right. He is obviously a power mad dictator.
But he won this round.

These protests never had what it took to win, he had more will and power than they did.

[Greater Cosmicium]

Lumen, I can understand you, but it's over.

Sadly. Maybe when Lukashenko leaves office Belarus will become a democracy like Albania when Hoxva died.

If he leaves by the ways you have recently suggested over the period of this thread, Belarus will be an ungovernable anarchy for quite a long time, with all the spilling of blood you can expect. Revolutions rarely end like they do in the world of fiction.

[San Lumen]

Sadly. Maybe when Lukashenko leaves office Belarus will become a democracy like Albania when Hoxva died.

If he leaves by the ways you have recently suggested over the period of this thread, Belarus will be an ungovernable anarchy for quite a long time, with all the spilling of blood you can expect.

Doubtful.

[Cordel One]

Lumen, I can understand you, but it's over.

Sadly. Maybe when Lukashenko leaves office Belarus will become a democracy like Albania when Hoxva died.

Maybe they should just vote lol

[San Lumen]

Sadly. Maybe when Lukashenko leaves office Belarus will become a democracy like Albania when Hoxva died.

Maybe they should just vote lol

It’s completely rigged.

[Cordel One]

Maybe they should just vote lol

It’s completely rigged.

That's my point. Of course voting won't fix anything, but there's another country this applies to as well...

[Loben III]

Maybe they should just vote lol

It’s completely rigged.

does this surprise you?