Possible Revolution in Belarus after Rigged election

[Thermodolia]

Yes I could become the supreme leader of all of Belarus

Thermodolic Byelorussia

His imperial majesty, Therm the first, leader of the people, guide of the nation, protecter of the faith, and king of Chernobyl

[Heloin]

Hopefully the security forces decide they have had enough and tell Lukashenko they will disobey him

Do you not fucking understand, they won't they're insanely loyal no matter what, they would die for him, you clearly are delusional if you think his loyal security forces will suddenly betray him to fit your bullshit narrative.

They're conscripts, they're not going to be as particularly loyal as you think they are. Sure San Lumen is fantasising about the glory of the revolution that can't negatively affect him and that's problematic, but going such a radically different direction isn't that helpful either.

[Telconi]

Do you not fucking understand, they won't they're insanely loyal no matter what, they would die for him, you clearly are delusional if you think his loyal security forces will suddenly betray him to fit your bullshit narrative.

There is only so much blood someone is willing to have on their hands

Yes, there's some magical hard cap of deaths where brutal dictators just abandon power because they've hit their murder quota...

[Thermodolia]

What makes you think that? They have no way of actually storming the palace or fighting back. They are unfortunately going to be slaughtered

How about Belarus's conscript army. Remember, conscripts don't necessarily want to be in the army, and it's not unlikely that many of them also sympathise with the protesters and wouldn't mind aiding them. Of course it's likely higher ranking officers that are deeply loyal to Lukashenko wouldn't rebel, but as long as enough troops rebel, the situation can change very quickly and become similar to that of Zimbabwe back in 2017 when Mugabe was removed.

True. Which is why the paramilitary forces will handle the protesters and not the military

[Atheris]

Assuming in fact this is a revolution and in the case they do, miraculously, pull a 1989 special and kick out there leader, what would happen next? I have 4 theories.

-Newer, most likely somewhat more left of centre government comes into power and attempts to restore democracy.
-Coup. Military launch a popular coup, riding on the wave of protest against the leadership, and take control of the government. Doubtful of a attempt to restore democracy, but I think that at the right pressure, they could try to do what Sudan is doing and transition to democracy.
-Civil war. Groups of most likely American/EU backed rebels take to arms and begin fighting a war. The crisis would be massive, honestly. Hundreds of thousands of new refugees in Europe and the honest possibility of a total collapse.
-Russian backed invasion. Russian coalition invades the country, crushes the protest, and installs a phony government. This would be rather horrible and it may end like the Hungarian revolution did: protester's overstepped the line and a invasion crushed it.

Thoughts, NSG?

Most likely outcome in the event of a popular revolution is 2 or 4.

[San Lumen]

There is only so much blood someone is willing to have on their hands

And you are willing to let thousands die because of one man, you sir are living in an utter fantasy world, you need to grow up and smell the fucking roses.

That one man is a brutal evil monster

[Telconi]

Do you not fucking understand, they won't they're insanely loyal no matter what, they would die for him, you clearly are delusional if you think his loyal security forces will suddenly betray him to fit your bullshit narrative.

They're conscripts, they're not going to be as particularly loyal as you think they are. Sure San Lumen is fantasising about the glory of the revolution that can't negatively affect him and that's problematic, but going such a radically different direction isn't that helpful either.

I think he was referencing the state security forces, not the regular army.

[Region of Dwipantara]

That’s not going to happen. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and the KGB of Belarus both control extremely loyal forces to the government.

They have no issues with firing on civilians. What you are advocating for will only cause mass death

And the people rebel even more. This isn’t China.

Literally there has not been any revolution that works like that, such naïveté only exist in movies. The point of a "peaceful" revolution (which usually still involve deadly riots nevertheless) is to convince some of the keys to power that the current state is unsalvageable, and it would be in their best interest politically to shift allegiance to the revolution. The alternative is a violent crackdown that result in an even more tyrannical regime, or a violent armed uprising and civil war against Belarus and Russia which will not end well in the slightest. If discourse is eliminated, the remaining power is something that came out of the barrel of a gun.

[Heloin]

Thermodolic Byelorussia

His imperial majesty, Therm the first, leader of the people, guide of the nation, protecter of the faith, and king of Chernobyl

Belarus's invasion of the Chernobyl exclusion zone was ignored by the Ukrainian government who were confused about who would want it in the first place. And next, sports...

[Dresderstan]

And you are willing to let thousands die because of one man, you sir are living in an utter fantasy world, you need to grow up and smell the fucking roses.

That one man is a brutal evil monster

And his loyal forces don't fucking care, and frankly neither do you, as you seem to believe "the ends justify the means" bullshit.

[Thermodolia]

Do you not fucking understand, they won't they're insanely loyal no matter what, they would die for him, you clearly are delusional if you think his loyal security forces will suddenly betray him to fit your bullshit narrative.

They're conscripts, they're not going to be as particularly loyal as you think they are. Sure San Lumen is fantasising about the glory of the revolution that can't negatively affect him and that's problematic, but going such a radically different direction isn't that helpful either.

Alpha Group and the MIA Troops aren’t conscripts. They are extremely loyal to the government, which is what Lumen was talking about here

[Heloin]

They're conscripts, they're not going to be as particularly loyal as you think they are. Sure San Lumen is fantasising about the glory of the revolution that can't negatively affect him and that's problematic, but going such a radically different direction isn't that helpful either.

I think he was referencing the state security forces, not the regular army.

I think I'm getting confused here. Security forces are the military as a whole, aren't they? That's how I read it at least.

[Novus America]

And the people rebel even more. This isn’t China.

They. Don't. Have. Weapons. The Chinese brutally repressed people in '89, are doing it rn in HK and Belarus backed by Russia will brutally repress the people here, all for nought.

Although the regular Belarusian Army appears to be largely poorly motivated conscripts, so they might turn but Belarus has separate KGB and internal troops it will probably use instead of the regular military, thus circumventing that.

The KGB trips are going to be loyal regime partisans, and probably quite reliable.

He probably will leave the regular troops in their barracks. Not trusting them.

[Telconi]

I think he was referencing the state security forces, not the regular army.

I think I'm getting confused here. Security forces are the military as a whole, aren't they? That's how I read it at least.

No, like the secret police. Who's specific job it is to suppress people who are against the regime. Those people are only part of such an organization because they're dyed in the wool Lukashenko supporters.

[Atheris]

I think he was referencing the state security forces, not the regular army.

I think I'm getting confused here. Security forces are the military as a whole, aren't they? That's how I read it at least.

By 'security forces' I believe they're referring to the Belarusian KGB and the Belarusian Alpha Group.

[New haven america]

And the people rebel even more. This isn’t China.

Literally there has not been any revolution that works like that, such naïveté only exist in movies. The point of a "peaceful" revolution (which usually still involve deadly riots nevertheless) is to convince some of the keys to power that the current state is unsalvageable, and it would be in their best interest politically to shift allegiance to the revolution. The alternative is a violent crackdown that result in an even more tyrannical regime, or a violent armed uprising and civil war against Belarus and Russia which will not end well in the slightest. If discourse is eliminated, the remaining power is something that came out of the barrel of a gun.

Downfall of the USSR, Velvet Revolution, Civil Rights and Feminist Movements, etc... Would you like me to continue?

[Heloin]

I think I'm getting confused here. Security forces are the military as a whole, aren't they? That's how I read it at least.

No, like the secret police. Who's specific job it is to suppress people who are against the regime. Those people are only part of such an organization because they're dyed in the wool Lukashenko supporters.

Oh, that makes so much more sense yes.

[Thermodolia]

I think he was referencing the state security forces, not the regular army.

I think I'm getting confused here. Security forces are the military as a whole, aren't they? That's how I read it at least.

No. Like all good dictatorships Belarus has two different paramilitary organizations which can be used to put down the protests without the need for the military

[Atheris]

And the people rebel even more. This isn’t China.

Literally there has not been any revolution that works like that, such naïveté only exist in movies. The point of a "peaceful" revolution (which usually still involve deadly riots nevertheless) is to convince some of the keys to power that the current state is unsalvageable, and it would be in their best interest politically to shift allegiance to the revolution. The alternative is a violent crackdown that result in an even more tyrannical regime, or a violent armed uprising and civil war against Belarus and Russia which will not end well in the slightest. If discourse is eliminated, the remaining power is something that came out of the barrel of a gun.

The Velvet Revolution and subsequent Velvet Divorce. The fall of the USSR (debatable; possibly inevitable). The reunification of Germany. The rise of Solidarity in Poland. The July Revolution. The French Revolution of 1848.

[Washington Resistance Army]

Literally there has not been any revolution that works like that, such naïveté only exist in movies. The point of a "peaceful" revolution (which usually still involve deadly riots nevertheless) is to convince some of the keys to power that the current state is unsalvageable, and it would be in their best interest politically to shift allegiance to the revolution. The alternative is a violent crackdown that result in an even more tyrannical regime, or a violent armed uprising and civil war against Belarus and Russia which will not end well in the slightest. If discourse is eliminated, the remaining power is something that came out of the barrel of a gun.

Downfall of the USSR, Velvet Revolution, Civil Rights and Feminist Movements, etc... Would you like me to continue?

The latter two aren't revolutions at all and the collapse of the USSR wasn't a revolution, it was a complete political and economic meltdown. Before the August Coup most people in the SSR's were voting to keep the Union but that event and everything that transpired ruined any faith in government.

[Novus America]

I think he was referencing the state security forces, not the regular army.

I think I'm getting confused here. Security forces are the military as a whole, aren't they? That's how I read it at least.

Authoritarian regimes generally split their security forces an military into two separate parts with entirely separate recruitment, training, pay and chain of command. One smaller, made up of loyalists not conscripts, a Praetorian Guard in urban areas that handles the shooting of protesters while the regular conscript troops are general exiled to isolated bases and put on external security duty, thus making them easier to control.

[Hunzali]

And the people rebel even more. This isn’t China.

They. Don't. Have. Weapons. The Chinese brutally repressed people in '89, are doing it rn in HK and Belarus backed by Russia will brutally repress the people here, all for nought.

Oh, and the irony is that while were mentioning the Chinese crackdown, Belarus got there own little Tank Man.

[San Lumen]

Literally there has not been any revolution that works like that, such naïveté only exist in movies. The point of a "peaceful" revolution (which usually still involve deadly riots nevertheless) is to convince some of the keys to power that the current state is unsalvageable, and it would be in their best interest politically to shift allegiance to the revolution. The alternative is a violent crackdown that result in an even more tyrannical regime, or a violent armed uprising and civil war against Belarus and Russia which will not end well in the slightest. If discourse is eliminated, the remaining power is something that came out of the barrel of a gun.

The Velvet Revolution and subsequent Velvet Divorce. The fall of the USSR (debatable; possibly inevitable). The reunification of Germany. The rise of Solidarity in Poland. The July Revolution. The French Revolution of 1848.

Romanian revolution

[Atheris]

The Velvet Revolution and subsequent Velvet Divorce. The fall of the USSR (debatable; possibly inevitable). The reunification of Germany. The rise of Solidarity in Poland. The July Revolution. The French Revolution of 1848.

Romanian revolution

The Romanian Revolution was pretty violent IIRC, but I may be remembering wrong.

[Hunzali]

The Velvet Revolution and subsequent Velvet Divorce. The fall of the USSR (debatable; possibly inevitable). The reunification of Germany. The rise of Solidarity in Poland. The July Revolution. The French Revolution of 1848.

Romanian revolution

Tunisian revolution, Sudanese revolution (ongoing), and the Rojava revolution (also ongoing).