Possible Revolution in Belarus after Rigged election

[New haven america]

*Russian Invasion

You mean a Possible Russian Invasion of Belarus.

[Region of Dwipantara]

Wanting to see a brutal dictator overthrown by his people and his security forces beaten with anything people can find is barbaric?

Given that would just lead to a lot of unarmed people being slaughtered yeah kinda.

Palace storming only happen if the military-security apparatus allows it to happen, which seems to not be the case. A strongman, probably Russia-backed, would just replace Lukashenko immediately anyway is such violent event took place.

[San Lumen]

I hope they don't. I hope to see Lukashneko's place ransacked and dragged out by his hair.

That’s not going to happen. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and the KGB of Belarus both control extremely loyal forces to the government.

They have no issues with firing on civilians. What you are advocating for will only cause mass death

And the people rebel even more. This isn’t China. Other countries should step in maybe and help oust this monster

[Telconi]

That’s not going to happen. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and the KGB of Belarus both control extremely loyal forces to the government.

They have no issues with firing on civilians. What you are advocating for will only cause mass death

And the people rebel even more. This isn’t China.

Yes, I'm sure more deaths will solve the first deaths...

[Dresderstan]

That’s not going to happen. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and the KGB of Belarus both control extremely loyal forces to the government.

They have no issues with firing on civilians. What you are advocating for will only cause mass death

And the people rebel even more. This isn’t China.

They. Don't. Have. Weapons. The Chinese brutally repressed people in '89, are doing it rn in HK and Belarus backed by Russia will brutally repress the people here, all for nought.

[Heloin]

*Russian Invasion

You mean a Possible Russian Invasion of Belarus.

Nearly anything could happen. So the only options we're allowed to consider are a full scale Russian invasion and the Storming of the Bastille.

[Washington Resistance Army]

That’s not going to happen. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and the KGB of Belarus both control extremely loyal forces to the government.

They have no issues with firing on civilians. What you are advocating for will only cause mass death

And the people rebel even more. This isn’t China. Other countries should step in maybe and help oust this monster

There's effectively no real difference between the PRC and Belarus here.

[Thermodolia]

That’s not going to happen. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and the KGB of Belarus both control extremely loyal forces to the government.

They have no issues with firing on civilians. What you are advocating for will only cause mass death

And the people rebel even more. This isn’t China. Other countries should step in maybe and help oust this monster

What makes you think that? They have no way of actually storming the palace or fighting back. They are unfortunately going to be slaughtered

[Thermodolia]

*Russian Invasion

You mean a Possible Russian Invasion of Belarus.

Nearly anything could happen. So the only options we're allowed to consider are a full scale Russian invasion and the Storming of the Bastille.

Yes I could become the supreme leader of all of Belarus

[Thermodolia]

That’s not going to happen. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and the KGB of Belarus both control extremely loyal forces to the government.

They have no issues with firing on civilians. What you are advocating for will only cause mass death

And the people rebel even more. This isn’t China. Other countries should step in maybe and help oust this monster

And do what? Risk war with Russia?

[Heloin]

Nearly anything could happen. So the only options we're allowed to consider are a full scale Russian invasion and the Storming of the Bastille.

Yes I could become the supreme leader of all of Belarus

Not my point but whatever. All praise Fearless Leader.

[Outer Acharet]

That’s not going to happen. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and the KGB of Belarus both control extremely loyal forces to the government.

They have no issues with firing on civilians. What you are advocating for will only cause mass death

And the people rebel even more. This isn’t China. Other countries should step in maybe and help oust this monster

And then instead of beating civvies with batons the military opens up with automatic weaponry and tanks. Besides, countries intervening in the affairs of their neighbors during a civil war usually goes poorly. I'd imagine that since the Eurozone likely doesn't want another Syria except this time on their border, the only people willing to help would be Russia, and you can imagine who they'd support.

[San Lumen]

And the people rebel even more. This isn’t China. Other countries should step in maybe and help oust this monster

What makes you think that? They have no way of actually storming the palace or fighting back. They are unfortunately going to be slaughtered

Hopefully the security forces decide they have had enough and tell Lukashenko they will disobey him

[Washington Resistance Army]

What makes you think that? They have no way of actually storming the palace or fighting back. They are unfortunately going to be slaughtered

Hopefully the security forces decide they have had enough and tell Lukashenko they will disobey him

The only thing they'd tell Lukashenko is they want a raise after shooting everyone.

[Punished UMN]

[Telconi]

Nearly anything could happen. So the only options we're allowed to consider are a full scale Russian invasion and the Storming of the Bastille.

Yes I could become the supreme leader of all of Belarus

Thermodolic Byelorussia

[Atheris]

I really hope Lukashenko gets deposed.

[Dresderstan]

What makes you think that? They have no way of actually storming the palace or fighting back. They are unfortunately going to be slaughtered

Hopefully the security forces decide they have had enough and tell Lukashenko they will disobey him

Do you not fucking understand, they won't they're insanely loyal no matter what, they would die for him, you clearly are delusional if you think his loyal security forces will suddenly betray him to fit your bullshit narrative.

[Thermodolia]

What makes you think that? They have no way of actually storming the palace or fighting back. They are unfortunately going to be slaughtered

Hopefully the security forces decide they have had enough and tell Lukashenko they will disobey him

This is fantasy. Utter fantasy

[Monsone]

And the people rebel even more. This isn’t China. Other countries should step in maybe and help oust this monster

What makes you think that? They have no way of actually storming the palace or fighting back. They are unfortunately going to be slaughtered

How about Belarus's conscript army. Remember, conscripts don't necessarily want to be in the army, and it's not unlikely that many of them also sympathise with the protesters and wouldn't mind aiding them. Of course it's likely higher ranking officers that are deeply loyal to Lukashenko wouldn't rebel, but as long as enough troops rebel, the situation can change very quickly and become similar to that of Zimbabwe back in 2017 when Mugabe was removed.

[San Lumen]

Hopefully the security forces decide they have had enough and tell Lukashenko they will disobey him

Do you not fucking understand, they won't they're insanely loyal no matter what, they would die for him, you clearly are delusional if you think his loyal security forces will suddenly betray him to fit your bullshit narrative.

There is only so much blood someone is willing to have on their hands

[Outer Acharet]

Hopefully the security forces decide they have had enough and tell Lukashenko they will disobey him

Do you not fucking understand, they won't they're insanely loyal no matter what, they would die for him, you clearly are delusional if you think his loyal security forces will suddenly betray him to fit your bullshit narrative.

The core of the military and the Belarusian KGB at least. Even then, if Average Ivan changes teams, then all you've got is heavily armed combatants on both sides of this mess.

[Telconi]

Hopefully the security forces decide they have had enough and tell Lukashenko they will disobey him

This is fantasy. Utter fantasy

I mean, it's probably more likely than you becoming Lukashenko's replacement, barely.

[Dresderstan]

Do you not fucking understand, they won't they're insanely loyal no matter what, they would die for him, you clearly are delusional if you think his loyal security forces will suddenly betray him to fit your bullshit narrative.

There is only so much blood someone is willing to have on their hands

And you are willing to let thousands die because of one man, you sir are living in an utter fantasy world, you need to grow up and smell the fucking roses.

[Hunzali]

Assuming in fact this is a revolution and in the case they do, miraculously, pull a 1989 special and kick out there leader/have a serious chance of doing it, what would happen next? I have 4 theories.

-Newer, most likely somewhat more left of centre government comes into power and attempts to restore democracy.
-Coup. Military launch a popular coup, riding on the wave of protest against the leadership, and take control of the government. Doubtful of a attempt to restore democracy, but I think that at the right pressure, they could try to do what Sudan is doing and transition to democracy.
-Civil war. Groups of most likely American/EU backed rebels take to arms and begin fighting a war. The crisis would be massive, honestly. Hundreds of thousands of new refugees in Europe and the honest possibility of a total collapse.
-Russian backed invasion. Russian coalition invades the country, crushes the protest, and installs a phony government. This would be rather horrible and it may end like the Hungarian revolution did: protester's overstepped the line and a invasion crushed it.

Thoughts, NSG?