by San Lumen » Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:54 pm
by Borderlands of Rojava » Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:55 pm
by Major-Tom » Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:58 pm
by Drongonia » Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:58 pm
The Republic of Drongonia
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by Reutoa » Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:58 pm
The Presidential Republic of Reutoa19 year old Rockefeller Republican, College Student studying History to be a Teacher, Former Campaign Aide, aspiring pescatarian
WELD 2020"Every time you stand up for an ideal, you send forth a tiny ripple of hope."
-Senator Robert F. Kennedy
by San Lumen » Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:59 pm
Major-Tom wrote:Possible revolution? Probably not. Probable indicator that Lukashenko is deeply unpopular and probably doesn't have much time left politically? Sure, definitely.
State-sanctioned polls in Belarus show him, for instance, with sky-high approval ratings. But the reality is closer to a measly 24%.. Belarus is complex, it's quite economically nationalist, quite closed off, and very culturally conservative. But there remains that demand for democracy, whether it's from a 70 year old conservative grandmother or a more Western-oriented millennial in Minsk.
by Tinhampton » Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:59 pm
by Punished UMN » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:00 pm
by The New California Republic » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:00 pm
The state TV exit poll showed that Mr Lukashenko won nearly 80% of the vote.
by Borderlands of Rojava » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:01 pm
by Punished UMN » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:01 pm
The New California Republic wrote:The state TV exit poll showed that Mr Lukashenko won nearly 80% of the vote.
Lol come on guys, at least give yourselves 99.9% of the vote, really push the boat out.
But seriously, 80% of the vote, with just 7% going to the main opposition candidate in a modern democracy just isn't possible. There has been some ballot box stuffing going on somewhere.
by San Lumen » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:01 pm
The New California Republic wrote:The state TV exit poll showed that Mr Lukashenko won nearly 80% of the vote.
Lol come on guys, at least give yourselves 99.9% of the vote, really push the boat out.
But seriously, 80% of the vote, with just 7% going to the main opposition candidate in a modern democracy just isn't possible. There has been some ballot box stuffing going on somewhere.
by Punished UMN » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:02 pm
San Lumen wrote:The New California Republic wrote:The state TV exit poll showed that Mr Lukashenko won nearly 80% of the vote.
Lol come on guys, at least give yourselves 99.9% of the vote, really push the boat out.
But seriously, 80% of the vote, with just 7% going to the main opposition candidate in a modern democracy just isn't possible. There has been some ballot box stuffing going on somewhere.
Of course there was ballot stuffing. He knew he would never win a free and fair election
by Major-Tom » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:02 pm
by The New California Republic » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:03 pm
Punished UMN wrote:The New California Republic wrote:The state TV exit poll showed that Mr Lukashenko won nearly 80% of the vote.
Lol come on guys, at least give yourselves 99.9% of the vote, really push the boat out.
But seriously, 80% of the vote, with just 7% going to the main opposition candidate in a modern democracy just isn't possible. There has been some ballot box stuffing going on somewhere.
Luckily for Lukashenko, Belarus isn't a modern democracy.
by Heloin » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:04 pm
by Punished UMN » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:05 pm
San Lumen wrote:Punished UMN wrote:Just because ballots were stuffed doesn't mean he lost. Most dictatorships stuff ballots, but most of them would probably still win elections without it.
You have proof of that? Independent opinion polls showed him losing in a landslide and single digit approval ratings
by San Lumen » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:06 pm
Heloin wrote:The election was rigged, that's obvious to anyone who knows anything about Belarus. The massive protests are a sign for Lukashenko that his days are numbered. Is it a revolution? I don't think so, at least not yet, the night it young.
by Thermodolia » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:07 pm
San Lumen wrote:https://www.axios.com/belarus-protests-election-933b5fa4-c2fa-4132-b10d-568e542393a6.html
A possible revolution is underway in Belarus after incumbent Alexander Lukashenko blatantly falsified results in his bid for sixth term. He has ruled the country with an iron fist since 1994. The main opposition candidate says she has proof she won in a landslide.
Huge crowds are making their way through the capital of Minsk and other cities and their are clashes with police.
I really hope this leads to his ouster and Europe’s last dictator finally falls.
Your thoughts NSG?
by Major-Tom » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:09 pm
Punished UMN wrote:San Lumen wrote:You have proof of that? Independent opinion polls showed him losing in a landslide and single digit approval ratings
I don't know about this particular instance, I'm speaking in generalities, but also independent opinion polls must be caveated. There's no reliable polling in Belarus so it's impossible to know if it's an actual majority opposition or just a large opposition like China had in 1989.
by Punished UMN » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:11 pm
Major-Tom wrote:Punished UMN wrote:I don't know about this particular instance, I'm speaking in generalities, but also independent opinion polls must be caveated. There's no reliable polling in Belarus so it's impossible to know if it's an actual majority opposition or just a large opposition like China had in 1989.
I linked non state-sanctioned polling and I’ll have to go back and retrieve a second source, but I think an additional poll had him around 30%, a little higher than the 24% I linked.
I don’t doubt that Lukashenko was once fiercely popular. He definitely was, after all Belarus weathered the 1990s crisis very well compared to neighbors, has a solid safety net etc etc. But familiarity breeds contempt, and when you’re the head of state for 26 years and only maintain it with a massive security apparatus and human rights abuses, soon even the most loyal of supporters will turn on you and demand change.
by Novus America » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:11 pm
by Thermodolia » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:11 pm
Major-Tom wrote:Punished UMN wrote:I don't know about this particular instance, I'm speaking in generalities, but also independent opinion polls must be caveated. There's no reliable polling in Belarus so it's impossible to know if it's an actual majority opposition or just a large opposition like China had in 1989.
I linked non state-sanctioned polling and I’ll have to go back and retrieve a second source, but I think an additional poll had him around 30%, a little higher than the 24% I linked.
I don’t doubt that Lukashenko was once fiercely popular. He definitely was, after all Belarus weathered the 1990s crisis very well compared to neighbors, has a solid safety net etc etc. But familiarity breeds contempt, and when you’re the head of state for 26 years and only maintain it with a massive security apparatus and human rights abuses, soon even the most loyal of supporters will turn on you and demand change.
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