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Possible Revolution in Belarus after Rigged election

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San Lumen
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Possible Revolution in Belarus after Rigged election

Postby San Lumen » Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:54 pm

https://www.axios.com/belarus-protests- ... 393a6.html

A possible revolution is underway in Belarus after incumbent Alexander Lukashenko blatantly falsified results in his bid for sixth term. He has ruled the country with an iron fist since 1994. The main opposition candidate says she has proof she won in a landslide.

Huge crowds are making their way through the capital of Minsk and other cities and their are clashes with police.

I really hope this leads to his ouster and Europe’s last dictator finally falls.

Your thoughts NSG?
Last edited by San Lumen on Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Borderlands of Rojava » Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:55 pm

2020 is the year mankind collectively said "hell ain't a bad place to be." Every week there's more chaos, and we got this only a few days after the Beirut superblast.
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Postby Major-Tom » Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:58 pm

Possible revolution? Probably not. Probable indicator that Lukashenko is deeply unpopular and probably doesn't have much time left politically? Sure, definitely.

State-sanctioned polls in Belarus show him, for instance, with sky-high approval ratings. But the reality is closer to a measly 24%.. Belarus is complex, it's quite economically nationalist, quite closed off, and very culturally conservative. But there remains that demand for democracy, whether it's from a 70 year old conservative grandmother or a more Western-oriented millennial in Minsk.
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Postby Drongonia » Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:58 pm

Damn, sucks for Lukashenko. It'll be interesting to see whether this is a genuine "by-the-people" movement or just another Western media scam.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:59 pm

Major-Tom wrote:Possible revolution? Probably not. Probable indicator that Lukashenko is deeply unpopular and probably doesn't have much time left politically? Sure, definitely.

State-sanctioned polls in Belarus show him, for instance, with sky-high approval ratings. But the reality is closer to a measly 24%.. Belarus is complex, it's quite economically nationalist, quite closed off, and very culturally conservative. But there remains that demand for democracy, whether it's from a 70 year old conservative grandmother or a more Western-oriented millennial in Minsk.

We shall see. The main opposition candidate says she has proof she won and is encouraging her supporters to protest

I hope to see the streets crowded with people and video of his palace being attacked
Last edited by San Lumen on Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Tinhampton » Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:59 pm

Is this going to end up with the same result as 2017's "Possible Coup in Venezuela"?
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Postby Punished UMN » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:00 pm

If the results are what the opposition were claiming, there wouldn't be enough Lukashenko supporters to suppress the opposition. Lukashenko will still be in power a year from now, provided this doesn't succeed within a month.
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Postby The New California Republic » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:00 pm

The state TV exit poll showed that Mr Lukashenko won nearly 80% of the vote.

Lol come on guys, at least give yourselves 99.9% of the vote, really push the boat out.

But seriously, 80% of the vote, with just 7% going to the main opposition candidate in a modern democracy just isn't possible. There has been some ballot box stuffing going on somewhere.
Last edited by Sigmund Freud on Sat Sep 23, 1939 2:23 am, edited 999 times in total.

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Major-Tom
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Postby Major-Tom » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:00 pm

Drongonia wrote:Damn, sucks for Lukashenko. It'll be interesting to see whether this is a genuine "by-the-people" movement or just another Western media scam.


What a strange thing to say.
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Postby Borderlands of Rojava » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:01 pm

Major-Tom wrote:
Drongonia wrote:Damn, sucks for Lukashenko. It'll be interesting to see whether this is a genuine "by-the-people" movement or just another Western media scam.


What a strange thing to say.


You know the CIA is into creating fake coups.
Last edited by Borderlands of Rojava on Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
The devil is out there. Hiding behind every corner and in every nook and cranny. In all of the dives, all over the city. Before you lays an entire world of enemies, and at day's end when the chips are down, we're a society of strangers. You cant walk by someone on the street anymore without crossing the road to get away from their stare. Welcome to the Twilight Zone. The land of plague and shadow. Nothing innocent survives this world. If it can't corrupt you, it'll kill you.

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Postby Punished UMN » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:01 pm

The New California Republic wrote:
The state TV exit poll showed that Mr Lukashenko won nearly 80% of the vote.

Lol come on guys, at least give yourselves 99.9% of the vote, really push the boat out.

But seriously, 80% of the vote, with just 7% going to the main opposition candidate in a modern democracy just isn't possible. There has been some ballot box stuffing going on somewhere.

Luckily for Lukashenko, Belarus isn't a modern democracy.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:01 pm

The New California Republic wrote:
The state TV exit poll showed that Mr Lukashenko won nearly 80% of the vote.

Lol come on guys, at least give yourselves 99.9% of the vote, really push the boat out.

But seriously, 80% of the vote, with just 7% going to the main opposition candidate in a modern democracy just isn't possible. There has been some ballot box stuffing going on somewhere.

Of course there was ballot stuffing. He knew he would never win a free and fair election

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Punished UMN
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Postby Punished UMN » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:02 pm

San Lumen wrote:
The New California Republic wrote:
The state TV exit poll showed that Mr Lukashenko won nearly 80% of the vote.

Lol come on guys, at least give yourselves 99.9% of the vote, really push the boat out.

But seriously, 80% of the vote, with just 7% going to the main opposition candidate in a modern democracy just isn't possible. There has been some ballot box stuffing going on somewhere.

Of course there was ballot stuffing. He knew he would never win a free and fair election

Just because ballots were stuffed doesn't mean he lost. Most dictatorships stuff ballots, but most of them would probably still win elections without it.
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Postby Major-Tom » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:02 pm

Borderlands of Rojava wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:
What a strange thing to say.


You know America is into creating fake coups.


I'm sure we have a vested interest in couping Belarus, even though the Belarussians are perfectly capable of doing so themselves.

It's more than possible to recognize that America interferes in foreign elections while simultaneously recognizing we just don't do it in every single one. That's an example of finding a relatively true narrative but then falsely applying it to even dissimilar situations.
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Postby The New California Republic » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:03 pm

Punished UMN wrote:
The New California Republic wrote:
The state TV exit poll showed that Mr Lukashenko won nearly 80% of the vote.

Lol come on guys, at least give yourselves 99.9% of the vote, really push the boat out.

But seriously, 80% of the vote, with just 7% going to the main opposition candidate in a modern democracy just isn't possible. There has been some ballot box stuffing going on somewhere.

Luckily for Lukashenko, Belarus isn't a modern democracy.

Yes that's my point.
Last edited by Sigmund Freud on Sat Sep 23, 1939 2:23 am, edited 999 times in total.

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But I'm going to wave my freak flag high
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:03 pm

Punished UMN wrote:
San Lumen wrote:Of course there was ballot stuffing. He knew he would never win a free and fair election

Just because ballots were stuffed doesn't mean he lost. Most dictatorships stuff ballots, but most of them would probably still win elections without it.

You have proof of that? Independent opinion polls showed him losing in a landslide and single digit approval ratings

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Postby Heloin » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:04 pm

The election was rigged, that's obvious to anyone who knows anything about Belarus. The massive protests are a sign for Lukashenko that his days are numbered. Is it a revolution? I don't think so, at least not yet, the night it young.
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Punished UMN
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Postby Punished UMN » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:05 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Punished UMN wrote:Just because ballots were stuffed doesn't mean he lost. Most dictatorships stuff ballots, but most of them would probably still win elections without it.

You have proof of that? Independent opinion polls showed him losing in a landslide and single digit approval ratings

I don't know about this particular instance, I'm speaking in generalities, but also independent opinion polls must be caveated. There's no reliable polling in Belarus so it's impossible to know if it's an actual majority opposition or just a large opposition like China had in 1989.
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Postby San Lumen » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:06 pm

Heloin wrote:The election was rigged, that's obvious to anyone who knows anything about Belarus. The massive protests are a sign for Lukashenko that his days are numbered. Is it a revolution? I don't think so, at least not yet, the night it young.

We shall see. I hope the people start attacking the security forces and their equipment and throw stuff at his palace
Last edited by San Lumen on Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Postby Thermodolia » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:07 pm

San Lumen wrote:https://www.axios.com/belarus-protests-election-933b5fa4-c2fa-4132-b10d-568e542393a6.html

A possible revolution is underway in Belarus after incumbent Alexander Lukashenko blatantly falsified results in his bid for sixth term. He has ruled the country with an iron fist since 1994. The main opposition candidate says she has proof she won in a landslide.

Huge crowds are making their way through the capital of Minsk and other cities and their are clashes with police.

I really hope this leads to his ouster and Europe’s last dictator finally falls.

Your thoughts NSG?

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Postby Major-Tom » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:09 pm

Punished UMN wrote:
San Lumen wrote:You have proof of that? Independent opinion polls showed him losing in a landslide and single digit approval ratings

I don't know about this particular instance, I'm speaking in generalities, but also independent opinion polls must be caveated. There's no reliable polling in Belarus so it's impossible to know if it's an actual majority opposition or just a large opposition like China had in 1989.


I linked non state-sanctioned polling and I’ll have to go back and retrieve a second source, but I think an additional poll had him around 30%, a little higher than the 24% I linked.

I don’t doubt that Lukashenko was once fiercely popular. He definitely was, after all Belarus weathered the 1990s crisis very well compared to neighbors, has a solid safety net etc etc. But familiarity breeds contempt, and when you’re the head of state for 26 years and only maintain it with a massive security apparatus and human rights abuses, soon even the most loyal of supporters will turn on you and demand change.
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Postby Punished UMN » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:11 pm

Major-Tom wrote:
Punished UMN wrote:I don't know about this particular instance, I'm speaking in generalities, but also independent opinion polls must be caveated. There's no reliable polling in Belarus so it's impossible to know if it's an actual majority opposition or just a large opposition like China had in 1989.


I linked non state-sanctioned polling and I’ll have to go back and retrieve a second source, but I think an additional poll had him around 30%, a little higher than the 24% I linked.

I don’t doubt that Lukashenko was once fiercely popular. He definitely was, after all Belarus weathered the 1990s crisis very well compared to neighbors, has a solid safety net etc etc. But familiarity breeds contempt, and when you’re the head of state for 26 years and only maintain it with a massive security apparatus and human rights abuses, soon even the most loyal of supporters will turn on you and demand change.

Opinion polling is illegal in Belarus, and internet censorship is massive. There's just not enough sample size for a reliable poll. I can't know of course. Give it a month. If he's gone in a month, that's that, if he's still there in a month, he'll either win or it will be very bloody.
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Postby Novus America » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:11 pm

Punished UMN wrote:
San Lumen wrote:Of course there was ballot stuffing. He knew he would never win a free and fair election

Just because ballots were stuffed doesn't mean he lost. Most dictatorships stuff ballots, but most of them would probably still win elections without it.


But because of the ballot stuffing we have little evidence he won.
This is a dubious claim, some might win without it, but many probably would not, and “I cheated but I could win without cheating” is a pretty weak argument.

Also several dictatorships have collapsed when they fail to stuff the ballot enough, confident that they will win, only to find out that naturally many people PRETEND to support a dictatorship out of fear, despite not actually do it.

That the fake shows of support do not prove real support.

Although I agree it is difficult to know given our lack of good information from the very repressive government.
Last edited by Novus America on Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Thermodolia » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:11 pm

Major-Tom wrote:
Punished UMN wrote:I don't know about this particular instance, I'm speaking in generalities, but also independent opinion polls must be caveated. There's no reliable polling in Belarus so it's impossible to know if it's an actual majority opposition or just a large opposition like China had in 1989.


I linked non state-sanctioned polling and I’ll have to go back and retrieve a second source, but I think an additional poll had him around 30%, a little higher than the 24% I linked.

I don’t doubt that Lukashenko was once fiercely popular. He definitely was, after all Belarus weathered the 1990s crisis very well compared to neighbors, has a solid safety net etc etc. But familiarity breeds contempt, and when you’re the head of state for 26 years and only maintain it with a massive security apparatus and human rights abuses, soon even the most loyal of supporters will turn on you and demand change.

Yes but did one of his opponents have more than 30% or where they all sub 30%
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