Coronavirus Thread V: A Shot in the Arm (READ OP)

[Post War America]

Unfortunately there are large amount of people in California that would ignore those mask mandates. Norcal exists.

Therefore we should crash the economy and do more damage then the pandemic ever could?

Sorry Billy I can't feed you dinner tonight since i dont have enough money and I can't buy or upgrade anything because every business in town has closed its doors.

Sorry Billy, I can't feed you dinner tonight, because some people a long time ago decided that whether or not you get fed depends on the ability of a small amount of people making obscene profits.

[Vetalia]

Lockdowns reduce spread, which is the point, this has been shown in effect. The problem is that people think it's over when the lockdown is over and then do stupid stuff, as opposed to wearing masks and maintaining reasonable social precautions.

Mass deaths due to disease is not inevitable, you understand. While the lockdowns are a harsh measure, they often have shown to be a necessary one because people lack basic will to take proper precautions because they're terrified of admitting the disaster in front of them.

They just delay the inevitable, the only point of them was to make it more manageable so that the health care system could handle the strain. I would also argue that the lockdowns themselves contributed to the problem when restrictions were lifted because keeping people under house arrest for months at a time is undoubtedly going to lead to a rebound effect...that and the incredibly inconsistent messaging regarding the effectiveness of masks in reducing the spread of the virus. I think a lot of the pushback related to masks is solely due to the damage caused by these lockdowns, especially in areas where there was never any strain on the healthcare system but the local economy was utterly ravaged.

[Post War America]

That's already going to happen. The only way a recession could be avoided would be to not have Capitalism, or to, at the initial point of pandemic just let it ride. The moment the first lockdowns happened, a recession was inevitable.

And it will be far worse than any pandemic ever could have been.

*Laughs Yersinia pestis pandemic of the 6th century*

[Salandriagado]

Yes

Yeah, I see all of this "Phase 3" stuff, but whose to say it won't fail there? The EARLIEST I give a vaccine is late winter next year. Probably some time next year anyway.

~85% of vaccines that reach Phase 3 trials get approved. We have several candidates at or near that point, some of them are on proven platforms (which push that percentage higher), and all of them have the advantage that we'll approve any vaccine that's good enough, rather than only a vaccine that's better than previous vaccines for the same thing (which pushes that percentage upwards a lot). Your prediction is overly pessimistic to say the least. We'll be getting preliminary data from Oxford (and maybe Moderna, but they've been a bit cagier with releasing preliminary stuff) in the next month or two, at which point we'll pretty much know whether or not we're getting a vaccine this winter. If we don't, there are ludicrous numbers of vaccines in the pipeline that will be hitting that same stage at some point early-ish next year. I'd be very surprised if we didn't have something workable in time for the northern-hemisphere flu vaccination period in Autumn 2021.

[Salandriagado]

I know you can't base a vaccine around economies but if that's the case their wont be much of a economy left to reopen if we continue with on and off shutdowns and social distancing

If they are in phase 3 now their is no way it is deployed end of 2021. It will be much sooner than that.

Hopefully we can get it done before 2021, but honestly that seems like a big overestimation of our vaccine creating abilities, and would produce an incredibly rushed vaccine. Early 2021 would provide room for some error to be fixed, although it would still be rushed.

This is simply false: there is no "rushing" happening. The speed up is due to four main factors (ignoring getting lucky by Oxford having already done most of the work aiming for a universal coronavirus vaccine):

1. Regulators are prioritising them. That cuts the wait time for paperwork down dramatically, not because of anything being skipped, but just because it doesn't take weeks for anybody to even look at it.
2. The higher prevalence (in areas with at least reasonable trial infrastructure) of Covid-19 compared to most diseases that we try to develop vaccines for means that you get data more rapidly. Again: nothing's being skipped, it's just that you get data at a rate proportional to the number of contacts with infected people, rather than to time itself, so higher prevalence = same data from shorter trials.
3. Many trial stages have been run simultaneously. No extra risk in the final vaccine here, but slightly higher risk to trial participants.
4. Manufacturing expansion has been done at-risk. Normally, you do your phase 1 trials, then manufacture enough vaccine to run a phase 2 trial, then run the phase 2 trials, then scale up your manufacturing enough to run a phase 3 trial, then run your phase 3 trial, then scale up to whatever your final manufacturing scale is, then start issuing it, waiting for regulators to sign off your next trial before each manufacturing expansion. In this case, the vaccines that are shooting for first-to-market started scaling up to full production scales immediately after Phase-1 trials, which both enabled point 3 above, and will allow them to start issuing the vaccine immediately upon approval. There is a significant risk here, but it's a financial one (which, for those frontrunners, has been largely underwritten by governments), not a medical one.

[Necroghastia]

That's already going to happen. The only way a recession could be avoided would be to not have Capitalism, or to, at the initial point of pandemic just let it ride. The moment the first lockdowns happened, a recession was inevitable.

And it will be far worse than any pandemic ever could have been.

Weren't you scolding me yesterday over hyperbole? Be consistent.

[Salandriagado]

I wonder if when colds first entered circulation if they were just as deadly as Covid-19 is now. I wonder if when new colds entered circulation, people thought they were deadly, or if they knew it was novel cold

I read a paper on this months ago, but haven't managed to re-find it now, sorry. The gist was "we don't really know, for most of them" (if by "colds" you mean "common cold coronaviruses"). Specifically, HKU1 is young enough that we'd have noticed if it killed lots of people (as a human virus, it's probably <20 years old). OC43, though, might have been responsible for the last big pandemic of the 19th century. 229E and NL63 are too old to say much about: on the order of centuries-to-millennia.

[San Lumen]

Therefore we should crash the economy and do more damage then the pandemic ever could?

Sorry Billy I can't feed you dinner tonight since i dont have enough money and I can't buy or upgrade anything because every business in town has closed its doors.

Sorry Billy, I can't feed you dinner tonight, because some people a long time ago decided that whether or not you get fed depends on the ability of a small amount of people making obscene profits.

why do you insist on pushing your ideology instead of listening to what someone has to say? Your fantasy of total makeover won't happen overnight. The bottom line is we heading to total economic collapse and very few are going to be thinking stupid comments like yours.

[Salandriagado]

Grow a tail? Seriously?

If cutting some corners means the end of government control over every aspect of daily life I’m fine with it

I mean, fuckups with prototype vaccines that in serious cases gave you the disease you were vaccinating against is not unknown. Would you have a covid19 vaccine if you aren't sure whether or not it would actually give you SARS2?

Erm, yes, actually. The risk to me is minimal, and it's a worthwhile trade-off for helping the pandemic end sooner. Not that it's a realistic concern because, as mentioned, we aren't skipping any testing.

[Salandriagado]

I expect any COVID19 vaccine to be recalled at least a few times tbh. In vitro responses are hard to predict after all.

... which is why literally nobody relies on them for anything. Seriously, we stopped getting excited about in vitro results some time around the hundredth candidate reporting them, way back in April.

[Vetalia]

I mean, fuckups with prototype vaccines that in serious cases gave you the disease you were vaccinating against is not unknown. Would you have a covid19 vaccine if you aren't sure whether or not it would actually give you SARS2?

I'd be more than willing to take my chances getting SARS-CoV-2 to help vaccine research...it's not exactly Ebola, after all.

[San Lumen]

I mean, fuckups with prototype vaccines that in serious cases gave you the disease you were vaccinating against is not unknown. Would you have a covid19 vaccine if you aren't sure whether or not it would actually give you SARS2?

I'd be more than willing to take my chances getting SARS-CoV-2 to help vaccine research...it's not exactly Ebola, after all.

Like Sal said almost all vaccines that reach phase 3 get approved.

I know some people who are still treating it like its airborne Ebola and it needs to stop. The two are completely different from each other.

[Vetalia]

Like Sal said almost all vaccines that reach phase 3 get approved.

I know some people who are still treating it like its airborne Ebola and it needs to stop. The two are completely different from each other.

I have no doubt this will be an effective and safe vaccine if it has reached this point among multiple candidates. It's a testament to just how far along medical science has advanced in recent years...there is no way a viable vaccine could have been developed this quickly back when SARS first emerged in 2003, even 10 years ago it would have been a stretch at best. Hopefully the lessons learned here can be deployed to develop vaccines to eventually eradicate numerous other diseases that continue to plague humans and animals alike.

[San Lumen]

Like Sal said almost all vaccines that reach phase 3 get approved.

I know some people who are still treating it like its airborne Ebola and it needs to stop. The two are completely different from each other.

I have no doubt this will be an effective and safe vaccine if it has reached this point among multiple candidates. It's a testament to just how far along medical science has advanced in recent years...there is no way a viable vaccine could have been developed this quickly back when SARS first emerged in 2003, even 10 years ago it would have been a stretch at best. Hopefully the lessons learned here can be deployed to develop vaccines to eventually eradicate numerous other diseases that continue to plague humans and animals alike.

I would caution you about trying to eliminate all disease. lets not forget the moral of War of the Worlds and consider when the book was written

[Vetalia]

I would caution you about trying to eliminate all disease. lets not forget the moral of War of the Worlds and consider when the book was written

Technically we wouldn't have any resistance against an alien disease from another planet anyways, so I wouldn't be too worried. Eliminating a number of the really bad ones would only be a net benefit for humanity...our immune system can be more than kept healthy by exposure to other viruses and bacteria that cause mild illness, or none.

[San Lumen]

I would caution you about trying to eliminate all disease. lets not forget the moral of War of the Worlds and consider when the book was written

Technically we wouldn't have any resistance against an alien disease from another planet anyways, so I wouldn't be too worried. Eliminating a number of the really bad ones would only be a net benefit for humanity...our immune system can be more than kept healthy by exposure to other viruses and bacteria that cause mild illness, or none.

That’s not what happened in War of the Worlds

[The New California Republic]

I have no doubt this will be an effective and safe vaccine if it has reached this point among multiple candidates. It's a testament to just how far along medical science has advanced in recent years...there is no way a viable vaccine could have been developed this quickly back when SARS first emerged in 2003, even 10 years ago it would have been a stretch at best. Hopefully the lessons learned here can be deployed to develop vaccines to eventually eradicate numerous other diseases that continue to plague humans and animals alike.

I would caution you about trying to eliminate all disease. lets not forget the moral of War of the Worlds and consider when the book was written

...the WotW Martians weren't necessarily defeated by human or animal diseases. It could have been bacteria and viruses that are not pathogenic to us but were to them. Just saying.

[Kannap]

I have no doubt this will be an effective and safe vaccine if it has reached this point among multiple candidates. It's a testament to just how far along medical science has advanced in recent years...there is no way a viable vaccine could have been developed this quickly back when SARS first emerged in 2003, even 10 years ago it would have been a stretch at best. Hopefully the lessons learned here can be deployed to develop vaccines to eventually eradicate numerous other diseases that continue to plague humans and animals alike.

I would caution you about trying to eliminate all disease. lets not forget the moral of War of the Worlds and consider when the book was written

That's not the moral of War of the Worlds, have you actually read the book?

[Neanderthaland]

Technically we wouldn't have any resistance against an alien disease from another planet anyways, so I wouldn't be too worried. Eliminating a number of the really bad ones would only be a net benefit for humanity...our immune system can be more than kept healthy by exposure to other viruses and bacteria that cause mild illness, or none.

That’s not what happened in War of the Worlds

There's no indication that the aliens in War of the Worlds died of a human disease. The book only specifies "bacteria." Bacteria are everywhere.

[Vetalia]

That’s not what happened in War of the Worlds

Are you sure? If I recall correctly the Martians were ultimately defeated because they lacked resistance to Earth's pathogens.

[San Lumen]

I would caution you about trying to eliminate all disease. lets not forget the moral of War of the Worlds and consider when the book was written

...the WotW Martians weren't necessarily defeated by human or animal diseases. It could have been bacteria and viruses that are not pathogenic to us but were to them. Just saying.

Its never really specified what. Wells's point was that everything has a purpose and to try and eliminate all disease or bacteria would meant the alien's victory.

[Vetalia]

Its never really specified what. Wells's point was that everything has a purpose and to try and eliminate all disease or bacteria would meant the alien's victory.

Seems like the Earth has done just fine without smallpox and rinderpest. Getting rid of the bacteria, viruses and protozoa that cause malaria, tuberculosis, Ebola, and a host of other nasty diseases would only be a net positive.

[Neanderthaland]

...the WotW Martians weren't necessarily defeated by human or animal diseases. It could have been bacteria and viruses that are not pathogenic to us but were to them. Just saying.

Its never really specified what. Wells's point was that everything has a purpose and to try and eliminate all disease or bacteria would meant the alien's victory.

No it wasn't. It was a lesson on hubris in classical style. That man is small in the scheme of things.

[San Lumen]

That’s not what happened in War of the Worlds

Are you sure? If I recall correctly the Martians were ultimately defeated because they lacked resistance to Earth's pathogens.

I thought you were saying the book was about a alien disease. I must have misread you

[San Lumen]

Its never really specified what. Wells's point was that everything has a purpose and to try and eliminate all disease or bacteria would meant the alien's victory.

Seems like the Earth has done just fine without smallpox and rinderpest.

and eliminating smallpox was a good thing.