Coronavirus Thread V: A Shot in the Arm (READ OP)

[San Lumen]

and you base that on what?

optimism

Therefore you have no basis for said claim?

[Neutraligon]

Its highly probable we have a vaccine by then

its highly possible we don't have a vaccine by then.

There is a meeting coming up by FDA not long before the election (October 22). For a vaccine to be done in time it needs to be done by this meeting for various reasons meaning 6 weeks plus a few days from now. That in turn means that the phase trial needs to be done at most 5 weeks and likely 4 weeks from now to allow enough time for the FDA to look into the experiment and enough time for the company to analyze the data. This also necessitates that the FDA do the thing where they look into the factory where this is being produced to ensure that it is compliant with all regulations, which also takes a while. And that all assumes everything goes perfectly for this vaccine.

[Eukaryotic Cells]

Hopefully yes. Manufacturing enough doses and distributing them on a global scale will likely take years, though. I suppose you could make sure that everyone going to the Olympics has immunity (either natural immunity or from the vaccine)

Many companies are already mass producing so it doesn't take years.

Gives you a head start, certainly. According to this article Sanofi expects to have an annual manufacturing capacity of 90 to 360 million doses. This page says they want to scale up manufacturing to 1 billion doses in 2021.

Some vaccines may need multiple doses. This Sanofi/GSK one requires two. We're going to need billions of doses to get global coverage.

[Kannap]

optimism

Therefore you have no basis for said claim?

No, I've got plenty. How about you?

mid-2021
12-18 months (mid-2021)
Late 2021 - mid 2022
mid-2021

I'd expect late 2021, tbh. But even if the vaccine is available to start circulating mid-2021, that's too late for the Olympics.

[San Lumen]

Therefore you have no basis for said claim?

No, I've got plenty. How about you?

mid-2021
12-18 months (mid-2021)
Late 2021 - mid 2022
mid-2021
I think its going to happen will before that
I'd expect late 2021, tbh. But even if the vaccine is available to start circulating mid-2021, that's too late for the Olympics.

[Neutraligon]

No, I've got plenty. How about you?

mid-2021
12-18 months (mid-2021)
Late 2021 - mid 2022
mid-2021

I'd expect late 2021, tbh. But even if the vaccine is available to start circulating mid-2021, that's too late for the Olympics.

I think its going to happen will before that

Based on

[Kannap]

No, I've got plenty. How about you?

mid-2021
12-18 months (mid-2021)
Late 2021 - mid 2022
mid-2021

I'd expect late 2021, tbh. But even if the vaccine is available to start circulating mid-2021, that's too late for the Olympics.

I think its going to happen will before that

Conveniently replying without sources to back up your claim, I'll play it safe and choose to not believe you.

[Eukaryotic Cells]

I wonder what sorts of precautions will be taken if they do push ahead with the Olympics. I'm sure this has been discussed somewhere, but I don't typically check Japanese news.

If the situation next Summer is the same as it is now? Cancellation, according to the IOC. There's no way to safely bring 5-7 million people from around the world to one city, no matter what measures you take.

What's the minimum number of people they could bring in? The athletes and their teams, plus some supporting staff, I would think.

I definitely don't envision packed stadiums.

[Borderlands of Rojava]

I think its going to happen will before that

Based on

I mean fauci said many americans may be vaccinated by summer of next year.

Don't know about the whole world though.

[Neanderthaland]

Based on

I mean fauci said many americans may be vaccinated by summer of next year.

Don't know about the whole world though.

They're probably going to start with vulnerable populations first, I imagine. Which wouldn't normally include Olympic athletes.

Unless some special dispensation were arranged.

[Neutraligon]

I mean fauci said many americans may be vaccinated by summer of next year.

Don't know about the whole world though.

They're probably going to start with vulnerable populations first, I imagine. Which wouldn't normally include Olympic athletes.

Unless some special dispensation were arranged.

Hmm, I would expect doctors and nurses first, as well as those who are high up in the government administration, and diplomats.

[Neanderthaland]

They're probably going to start with vulnerable populations first, I imagine. Which wouldn't normally include Olympic athletes.

Unless some special dispensation were arranged.

Hmm, I would expect doctors and nurses first, as well as those who are high up in the government administration, and diplomats.

"Of course it would be absolutely vital that our top government and military men be included to foster and impart the required principles of leadership and tradition"

EDIT: I would normally include medical workers as "vulnerable populations." In practice, if not in theory.

[Greater vakolicci haven]

How long do we postpone things for? If the current vaccine programmes go belly up then what?

How many people would need to die before "business as usual" stops being worth it? What's your price tag, how many people do you want to die?

I don't have a number because I simply don't have a point at which I believe restrictions are justified.

[Rusozak]

Based on

I mean fauci said many americans may be vaccinated by summer of next year.

Don't know about the whole world though.

I'm not even thinking about that for now. The clock doesn't start until they have a fully tested vaccine ready for distribution. And there's numerous contradicting predictions on when that will be, so really there's no way to predict when everyone will be vaccinated or when we will see a return to normalcy.

[Shanghai industrial complex]

Hmm, I would expect doctors and nurses first, as well as those who are high up in the government administration, and diplomats.

"Of course it would be absolutely vital that our top government and military men be included to foster and impart the required principles of leadership and tradition"

EDIT: I would normally include medical workers as "vulnerable populations." In practice, if not in theory.

I think it is more accurate to say that they are susceptible to infection, after all, they are exposed to the source of infection every day.You don't want your doctor to tell you that he may have covid-19 when he gives you a diagnosis, do you?

[US-SSR]

Hmm, I would expect doctors and nurses first, as well as those who are high up in the government administration, and diplomats.

"Of course it would be absolutely vital that our top government and military men be included to foster and impart the required principles of leadership and tradition"

EDIT: I would normally include medical workers as "vulnerable populations." In practice, if not in theory.

Naturally, they would breed prodigiously, eh?

[Borderlands of Rojava]

I mean fauci said many americans may be vaccinated by summer of next year.

Don't know about the whole world though.

I'm not even thinking about that for now. The clock doesn't start until they have a fully tested vaccine ready for distribution. And there's numerous contradicting predictions on when that will be, so really there's no way to predict when everyone will be vaccinated or when we will see a return to normalcy.

I'll answer the last one. Normal is gone and has been gone honestly since even before 2020 started, but this year it really made like Sheryl Crow and ended up getting real gone.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Athletes at the Olympics are massive role models. They're obviously not going to wear masks (except maybe in shooting or other sports involving little exertion), though most sports allow for distancing most of the time.

No team sports. Because No Mask and No Distancing is just terrible role modeling.
No wresting or martial arts. "

Of course, one or more vaccines would change the picture enormously. I think it could be justified to move athletes up the queue, despite tending young and all being fit. The reason would be (a) their work does not allow standard protections, (b) the knowledge they'd been vaccinated would be positive role modelling, and (c) their work is important to a lot of people (ie, a widened definition of 'essential').

Oh, and (d) stick it to the anti-vaxxers: no shot, no shotput.

If a vaccine is widely available, I would allow vaccinated spectators to fill all the seats in one area (perhaps behind the podium for the cameras), probably still with masks for the look, while unvaccinated spectators would have to distance as well as masks. Organizers will have to arrange more gradual entry and exit from stadia, I suggest by using many colors of seats tesselated and tickets that color with chips in, so people learn early that the turnstile won't work for them if they arrive or try to leave, too soon.

[Ifreann]

tbh do we really need the Olympics?

They do far more harm than good, for sure. They fuel corruption, make countries spend billions of dollars pointlessly when that money could be better spent elsewhere, and they inflame nationalist sentiment.

Pretty much any time the Olympics comes to a city, it reminds us how little human life and dignity are worth compared to the Olympics:
1. In Beijing 2008, 1.5 million Beijingers lost their homes.
2. In the last 20 years alone, 2 million people have been forcibly displaced to make room for Olympic structures worldwide.
3. In Vancouver 2010, the build-up to the Olympics there caused homelessness to spike.
4. In Sochi 2014, thousands were displaced from their homes to make room for stadiums and rinks that have only been used a handful of times.
5. Cost always overruns and often leaves cities in debt for years following.
6. The money to fund them usually come from taxpayers and should be utilized on more vital things.
7. To fund the Sydney 2000 Games, New South Wales had to sap funds from its health and education budgets.
8. To fund Sochi 2014, the cost was footed by state-run banks while the Russian economy was moving fast towards a full-on recession.

And that's just a short list

If Tokyo goes on as planned next Summer we can add

9. Transmission of COVID among millions of spectators and athletes and deaths of tens or hundreds of thousands as a result.

In Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six, the 1998 novel which is the basis for the video game franchise Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six, a critical element of the ultimate plan of the villains is to spread a deadly virus at the 2000 Sydney Olympics, chosen specifically because those infected would return home to nations all over the world. Incidentally, they're radical environmentalists whose goal is to wipe out almost all of the human race to stop us from all our pesky pollution.

Wait...are we living in a Tom Clancy novel?

[-SARS-]

They do far more harm than good, for sure. They fuel corruption, make countries spend billions of dollars pointlessly when that money could be better spent elsewhere, and they inflame nationalist sentiment.

Pretty much any time the Olympics comes to a city, it reminds us how little human life and dignity are worth compared to the Olympics:
1. In Beijing 2008, 1.5 million Beijingers lost their homes.
2. In the last 20 years alone, 2 million people have been forcibly displaced to make room for Olympic structures worldwide.
3. In Vancouver 2010, the build-up to the Olympics there caused homelessness to spike.
4. In Sochi 2014, thousands were displaced from their homes to make room for stadiums and rinks that have only been used a handful of times.
5. Cost always overruns and often leaves cities in debt for years following.
6. The money to fund them usually come from taxpayers and should be utilized on more vital things.
7. To fund the Sydney 2000 Games, New South Wales had to sap funds from its health and education budgets.
8. To fund Sochi 2014, the cost was footed by state-run banks while the Russian economy was moving fast towards a full-on recession.

And that's just a short list

If Tokyo goes on as planned next Summer we can add

9. Transmission of COVID among millions of spectators and athletes and deaths of tens or hundreds of thousands as a result.

In Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six, the 1998 novel which is the basis for the video game franchise Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six, a critical element of the ultimate plan of the villains is to spread a deadly virus at the 2000 Sydney Olympics, chosen specifically because those infected would return home to nations all over the world. Incidentally, they're radical environmentalists whose goal is to wipe out almost all of the human race to stop us from all our pesky pollution.

Wait...are we living in a Tom Clancy novel?

COVID isn't deadly enough for that. It's deadly enough to make a noticeable spike in the number of patients at the hospital, but not to wipe out the majority of the human race.

[Rusozak]

In Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six, the 1998 novel which is the basis for the video game franchise Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six, a critical element of the ultimate plan of the villains is to spread a deadly virus at the 2000 Sydney Olympics, chosen specifically because those infected would return home to nations all over the world. Incidentally, they're radical environmentalists whose goal is to wipe out almost all of the human race to stop us from all our pesky pollution.

Wait...are we living in a Tom Clancy novel?

COVID isn't deadly enough for that. It's deadly enough to make a noticeable spike in the number of patients at the hospital, but not to wipe out the majority of the human race.

COVID is in that nice sweet spot between not being deadly and being deadly enough to provoke an effective response from everyone, enough to make sure this is a painfully long and drawn out pandemic. I guarantee if COVID was as deadly as Rabies there wouldn't be any deniers and anti-maskers or anti-lockdown movements.

[Glorious Hong Kong]

As Americans brace for 2nd wave of COVID-19, here's why experts predict more infections but fewer deaths

A greater domestic abundance of PPE and other medical supplies means that developed countries are now a lot less reliant on the CCP for medical supplies despite repeated spikes in transmission. Let's hope the new drugs, treatments, therapies, and shielding of older people actually work in keeping deaths down. We don't need China's help after all. No more begging, groveling, and going on public record to "thank" China in exchange for free "donations".

Not all countries experience changing seasons. Here in Southeast Asia, it's summer all year-round. We don't have to worry about a flu season that will never arrive. Not to mention the seasons are reversed in the southern hemisphere if you paid any attention in geography class.

[Eukaryotic Cells]

As Americans brace for 2nd wave of COVID-19, here's why experts predict more infections but fewer deaths

A greater domestic abundance of PPE and other medical supplies means that developed countries are now a lot less reliant on the CCP for medical supplies despite repeated spikes in transmission. Let's hope the new drugs, treatments, therapies, and shielding of older people actually work in keeping deaths down. We don't need China's help after all. No more begging, groveling, and going on public record to "thank" China in exchange for free "donations".

Not all countries experience changing seasons. Here in Southeast Asia, it's summer all year-round. We don't have to worry about a flu season that will never arrive. Not to mention the seasons are reversed in the southern hemisphere if you paid any attention in geography class.

I think the case fatality rate will be down, definitely. We know a lot more about this virus than we did back in the spring.

I'm still fairly worried it could inflict a sizable death toll.

[-SARS-]

As Americans brace for 2nd wave of COVID-19, here's why experts predict more infections but fewer deaths

A greater domestic abundance of PPE and other medical supplies means that developed countries are now a lot less reliant on the CCP for medical supplies despite repeated spikes in transmission. Let's hope the new drugs, treatments, therapies, and shielding of older people actually work in keeping deaths down. We don't need China's help after all. No more begging, groveling, and going on public record to "thank" China in exchange for free "donations".

Not all countries experience changing seasons. Here in Southeast Asia, it's summer all year-round. We don't have to worry about a flu season that will never arrive. Not to mention the seasons are reversed in the southern hemisphere if you paid any attention in geography class.

I think the case fatality rate will be down, definitely. We know a lot more about this virus than we did back in the spring.

I'm still fairly worried it could inflict a sizable death toll.

Also more testing will mean you will have fewer cases going uncounted. It's likely that the true number of infections in the spring was much higher than reported. Increased testing means higher numbers of infections being reported, but it doesn't mean higher numbers of actual infections and it doesn't mean higher numbers of deaths.

[The Black Forrest]

As Americans brace for 2nd wave of COVID-19, here's why experts predict more infections but fewer deaths

A greater domestic abundance of PPE and other medical supplies means that developed countries are now a lot less reliant on the CCP for medical supplies despite repeated spikes in transmission. Let's hope the new drugs, treatments, therapies, and shielding of older people actually work in keeping deaths down. We don't need China's help after all. No more begging, groveling, and going on public record to "thank" China in exchange for free "donations".

Not all countries experience changing seasons. Here in Southeast Asia, it's summer all year-round. We don't have to worry about a flu season that will never arrive. Not to mention the seasons are reversed in the southern hemisphere if you paid any attention in geography class.

I think the case fatality rate will be down, definitely. We know a lot more about this virus than we did back in the spring.

I'm still fairly worried it could inflict a sizable death toll.

It may happen. I have focused on the serious critical numbers which have been pretty consistent at 16000ish + or - a few hundred.

Today it was down to 14500. It might have been when the data was generated or just a temporary bounce which has happened in the past.

In two weeks we shall see how it went. Peoples need to party, etc., can outweigh prudent precautions......