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After some years of peace the Nagorno Karabakh conflict has been restarted again. The main difference this time is that at least some of the fighting is on the Armenian-Azeri border rather than Azerbaijan only fighting against ethnic Armenian seperatists.

The Nagorno Karabakh conflict is one of the land disputes which can be traced back to the disintegration of the Eastern Bloc/USSR.

https://www.france24.com/en/20200716-ne ... azerbaijan

Border clashes erupted again early on Thursday between arch-foes Azerbaijan and Armenia, officials in both countries said, following a pause in fighting amid a flare-up over a decades-long territorial dispute.

At least 16 people on both sides have been killed since border clashes erupted on Sunday between the ex-Soviet republics, which have been locked for decades in a conflict over Azerbaijan's separatist region of Nagorno Karabakh.

The territory was seized by ethnic Armenian separatists in a 1990s war that claimed 30,000 lives, though the recent fighting broke out on a northern section of their shared border far from Karabakh.

Azerbaijani forces were "shelling Armenian villages with mortars and howitzers," Armenia's defence ministry spokeswoman Sushan Stepanyan said on Thursday.

The defence ministry in Baku said in a statement that clashes were ongoing in the north after "Armenians shelled Azerbaijani villages with large-calibre weapons."

Armenia has vowed to crush any military offensive.

Al Jazeera extended video report

In the previous series of skirmishes back in 2016 most of the world- including Obama and Putin- were united on the position that the fighting should stop; except for Turkey's Recep Erdoğan who gave unreserved support (at least by words if not actions) to the Azeri military.

The 2016 conflict also saw the first use of suicide drones, with one being used to destroy a bus carrying Armenian volunteers to the frontlines. It eventually ended with Russia acting as a mediator.

NSG, do you think that this conflict will escalate further? Will Erdoğan go full Ottoman? It's especially interesting and concerning that the Armenian Army-proper are involved whereas before it was mainly paramilitaries. Personally I suspect that it'll be similar to 2016; both sides will throw in their punches, claim a kind of victory yet ultimately achieve little after another Russian-brokered cease-fire.

nothing burger again
nothing ever happens

SD_Film Artists wrote:Will Erdoğan go full Ottoman?

No.

Nobody in Turkey gives a shit about Azerbaijan and Armenia beyond a few tweets and Instagram posts.

Turkey being unhelpful as always when it comes to any topic related to Armenians doesn’t likely mean that they’d dare involve themselves in that quagmire.

Hopefully Artsakh and Armenia can continue the historical pattern in the Karabakh and hold back the Azerbaijanis. Then everything can calm down and depressingly we’ll see this story again in a year or two.

SD_Film Artists wrote:After some years of peace the Nagorno Karabakh conflict has been restarted again.[..]

There never has been peace, only a cease-fire. Azerbaijan and Turkey imposed a blockade on Armenia contrary what is permitted by international law, and there have been continuous border skirmishes. To understand the conflict you have to go deep into geo-politics, and religious and ethnic differences in the region, and Stalin's ceding of the Nagorno Karabakh territory to Azerbaijan against the wishes of the population.

Firstly, the territory was 94% Armenian, and was handed over to the Azerbaijan SSR to cause conflict and distrust between Azerbaijanis and Armenians i.e. divide and conquer. You could compare this to how many European empires handled their Africa or Asian colonies, as the whole Soviet policy in Azerbaijan and Armenia was to make both sides so angry at each other they would never unite against the Soviet Union.

Secondly, Azerbaijanis and Turks share some ethnic and religious ties, and both deny the Armenian genocide as policy and support each other in their border disputes. When protocols to open the border to trade were attempted between Turkey and Armenia, supported by the Obama administration, the whole deal fell apart as Azerbaijan made ceding Nagorno Karabakh to Azerbaijan a requirement of negotiation.

Thirdly, when the Soviet Union collapsed, Azerbaijan and Armenia went to war, with Azerbaijani side ethnic cleansing the entire Armenian population within the territory they controlled, forcing them back into the territory that Armenia controlled. In response, the Armenian side did the same to the Azerbaijanis in their territory. When the war was over, and after many massacres and atrocities by both sides, most of Nagorno Karabakh was under Armenian control and some left in Azerbaijani control.

Now that was just the rough historical context up to the founding of modern-day Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Today, Azerbaijan is a corrupt oligarchy ruled by a dictator and his family, and extreme nationalism is a tool to keep them in power, and Armenia is a corrupt ex-Soviet state that is partly democratic but still stuck deep under Russian influence and all the issues and corruption that involves. Armenia does want peace with Azerbaijan, but as Azerbaijan is a dictatorship that relies on ethnic and religious hatred towards Armenians to survive, peace is not a possibility.

Azerbaijan's government wants a full-scale war and doesn't want a full-scale war, at least in how the terms of engagement have operated, and by that I mean there is the propaganda line and the actual line that that Azerbaijan won't cross because it would force Russian involvement due to the treaties and defense obligations that Russia has with Armenia. Azerbaijan could decide to do a full-scale war, but Russia views Armenia as a satellite in their influence, and any drastic change to the status quo would make them angry - and Azerbaijan has no ability to defend against a full scale assault from Russia and Armenia.

So they are quite happy to threaten war but not actually do more than major skirmishes on the border, as Azerbaijan's government can get the propaganda war going and keep in power without actually risking their forces in a big way. In this sense, it is an escalation but nothing new really - as the goal isn't to conquer Armenia, just create a propaganda coup for domestic consumption.

Azerbaijan's separatist region of Nagorno Karabakh.

Diplomacy and journalism must be the only profession in which the ability to distort facts to this level is something the writer is praised for lol

Rooting for Armenia, but let's be honest, this is going to fizzle out within a month or two until a few years later.

Well, at least if the Azeris and Turks really do much of anything they'll get very rekt. Armenia is one of the most militarized countries on earth, and is probably one of the few Russian allies that can actually count on big bro to bail them out.

Oh, those two are fighting again.

Punished UMN wrote:

Azerbaijan's separatist region of Nagorno Karabakh.

Diplomacy and journalism must be the only profession in which the ability to distort facts to this level is something the writer is praised for lol

They all are fed the same line, and follow through on it. It is incredibly ironic, considering if we follow the line of reasoning a lot of mainstream media follow on Nagorno Karabakh, then Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltics are a 'separatist' region of Russia because Russia once controlled them. It would be pretty laughable if this writer wasn't deliberately ignoring that the Soviet Union invaded and annexed Armenia, forced it to become communist, and then gave away a vast amount of its former territory to another communist puppet state it had created.

Vistulange wrote:

SD_Film Artists wrote:Will Erdoğan go full Ottoman?

No.

Nobody in Turkey gives a shit about Azerbaijan and Armenia beyond a few tweets and Instagram posts.

I thought they'd care at least a bit about their closest ally with ethnic ties, though yes I'd also be surprised if Turkey declared war over it unless Armenia were doing really really well.

SD_Film Artists wrote:

Vistulange wrote:No.

Nobody in Turkey gives a shit about Azerbaijan and Armenia beyond a few tweets and Instagram posts.

I thought they'd care at least a bit about their closest ally with ethnic ties, though yes I'd also be surprised if Turkey declared war over it unless Armenia were doing really really well.

I'm sure Recep Tayyip Erdogan the Turkish supremacist would be more than willing to take advantage of the situation just to kill Armenians. This man probably mourns the Armenian genocide only in the sense that they didn't successfully wipe every Armenian out. He's a racist and a tyrant on a mission to bring death to locations across the middle east. Armenia needs to watch out.

Rojava Free State wrote:

SD_Film Artists wrote:
I thought they'd care at least a bit about their closest ally with ethnic ties, though yes I'd also be surprised if Turkey declared war over it unless Armenia were doing really really well.

I'm sure Recep Tayyip Erdogan the Turkish supremacist would be more than willing to take advantage of the situation just to kill Armenians. This man probably mourns the Armenian genocide only in the sense that they didn't successfully wipe every Armenian out. He's a racist and a tyrant on a mission to bring death to locations across the middle east. Armenia needs to watch out.

The Turkish-Armenian border is guarded by Russia IIRC. It'd be retarded for Turkey to attack it.

Diopolis wrote:

Rojava Free State wrote:
I'm sure Recep Tayyip Erdogan the Turkish supremacist would be more than willing to take advantage of the situation just to kill Armenians. This man probably mourns the Armenian genocide only in the sense that they didn't successfully wipe every Armenian out. He's a racist and a tyrant on a mission to bring death to locations across the middle east. Armenia needs to watch out.

The Turkish-Armenian border is guarded by Russia IIRC. It'd be retarded for Turkey to attack it.

Hopefully so. I'm no fan of Russia but it would be great if they protected the Armenians from Turkey.

New Rogernomics wrote:

Punished UMN wrote:Diplomacy and journalism must be the only profession in which the ability to distort facts to this level is something the writer is praised for lol

They all are fed the same line, and follow through on it. It is incredibly ironic, considering if we follow the line of reasoning a lot of mainstream media follow on Nagorno Karabakh, then Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltics are a 'separatist' region of Russia because Russia once controlled them. It would be pretty laughable if this writer wasn't deliberately ignoring that the Soviet Union invaded and annexed Armenia, forced it to become communist, and then gave away a vast amount of its former territory to another communist puppet state it had created.

France 24 is a good news source. I'd expect that the journalist was simply going by what is internationally recognised rather than having a hidden agenda. Half of Azerbaijan could be ceded to Armenia tomorrow and the average French person wouldn't know the difference.

SD_Film Artists wrote:

New Rogernomics wrote:They all are fed the same line, and follow through on it. It is incredibly ironic, considering if we follow the line of reasoning a lot of mainstream media follow on Nagorno Karabakh, then Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltics are a 'separatist' region of Russia because Russia once controlled them. It would be pretty laughable if this writer wasn't deliberately ignoring that the Soviet Union invaded and annexed Armenia, forced it to become communist, and then gave away a vast amount of its former territory to another communist puppet state it had created.

France 24 is a good news source. I'd expect that the journalist was simply going by what is internationally recognised rather than having a hidden agenda. Half of Azerbaijan could be ceded to Armenia tomorrow and the average French (or other western-European) person wouldn't know the difference.

What is 'internationally recognized' is an agenda, as the Minsk peace process basically concedes that Nagorno Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan contrary to facts on the physical reality on the ground and historical fact, even though Armenia disputes this. You will continually see maps that show Nagorno Karabakh within Azerbaijan even though the territory near and around it is all but controlled by the Republic of Artaskh and Armenia, and these agendas are parroted by France 24 and other mainstream news sources. It being a 'good news source' or not is not in dispute, but rather the framing they have accepted while running the story.

New Rogernomics wrote:You will continually see maps that show Nagorno Karabakh within Azerbaijan even though the territory near and around it is all but controlled by the Republic of Artaskh and Armenia

It's almost as though recognised borders rely (rightly or wrongly) on diplomacy and consensus rather than 'hey there's some guys with guns over there so let's re-draw the map.'

For example parts of Kurdistan are (or were) independent and the mainstream media readily accepts this fact, and yet they still wouldn't actually draw 'Kurdistan' on the map because it's not the media's job to draw maps. Likewise, both France 24 and Al Jazeera haven't pretended that Nagorno Karabakh is actually under the control of Azerbaijan.

and these agendas are parroted by France 24 and other mainstream news sources. It being a 'good news source' or not is not in dispute, but rather the framing they have accepted while running the story.

What 'framing' is that? It's not as if they're a mouthpeice for Turkey/Azerbaijan blaming Armenia for everything.

SD_Film Artists wrote:It's almost as though recognised borders rely (rightly or wrongly) on diplomacy and consensus rather than 'hey there's some guys with guns over there so let's re-draw the map.'

For example parts of Kurdistan are (or were) independent and the mainstream media readily accepts this fact, and yet they still wouldn't actually draw 'Kurdistan' on the map because it's not the media's job to draw maps. Likewise, both France 24 and Al Jazeera haven't pretended that Nagorno Karabakh is actually under the control of Azerbaijan.

They aren't recognized as you are arguing them, in fact no one requires them to use the borders under Minsk, and it is an entirely voluntary decision to publish them - though over the years there have been allegations of bribery from Azeri friendly organizations to use said maps and use their narrative. France24 probably hasn't done this, never the less it isn't disputing the narrative on the border dispute.

Armenia was actually a country inclusive of Nagorno Karabakh in 1920 till it was invaded and occupied by the Soviet Union, whereas Kurdistan was independent Kingdoms and never as organized as Armenia has been historically. Though this is about Armenian, and not Kurdish history, which is quite more complicated.

SD_Film Artists wrote:What 'framing' is that? It's not as if they're a mouthpeice for Turkey/Azerbaijan and blaming Armenia for everything.

I already said what the framing was. It was to benefit of one party in the dispute. Are you still arguing that because someone disagrees with one part of an article they they believe France 24's story as a whole was false? Do we have to agree that every news organization you like is 100% accurate or you get angry over it, and start acting like the folks disagreeing with one line in the article think the whole article is bunk? As that's what I am seeing right now.

Punished UMN wrote:

Azerbaijan's separatist region of Nagorno Karabakh.

Diplomacy and journalism must be the only profession in which the ability to distort facts to this level is something the writer is praised for lol

The mind must be a separatist region of the body of whichever "reporter" wrote that crap. Nagorno-Karabakh has been Armenian dating back at least over the past 500 years? I'm not talking about the carousel of rulers, I'm talking about most of the people actually living in the region. How've you been UMN?

In the previous series of skirmishes back in 2016 most of the world- including Obama and Putin- were united on the position that the fighting should stop; except for Turkey's Recep Erdoğan who gave unreserved support (at least by words if not actions) to the Azeri military.

That guy. Is there any conflict that he won't attempt to escalate? Obama and Putin are like "dude, let's not have WWIII over the Caucasus" and Erdogan's going "why not fuck not?" That guy.

Rojava Free State wrote:

Diopolis wrote:The Turkish-Armenian border is guarded by Russia IIRC. It'd be retarded for Turkey to attack it.

Hopefully so. I'm no fan of Russia but it would be great if they protected the Armenians from Turkey.

Russia tends to bitch slap aggressors in the Caucasian Region, especially aggressors against Russia's allies. All Armenia would have to do is prove that Erdogan's the aggressor, which, TBQH, wouldn't be difficult.

Shofercia wrote:

Punished UMN wrote:Diplomacy and journalism must be the only profession in which the ability to distort facts to this level is something the writer is praised for lol

The mind must be a separatist region of the body of whichever "reporter" wrote that crap. Nagorno-Karabakh has been Armenian dating back at least over the past 500 years? I'm not talking about the carousel of rulers, I'm talking about most of the people actually living in the region. How've you been UMN?

Doing pretty good, but about to go to bed. Only in journalism and diplomacy is a country that has been independent for 29 years a "separatist region." lol

The Caucasus: AKA, The Diet Balkans.

Don't really know what to say here, wish Turkey would stop being such a malicious actor, but we know that'll never happen.

Another one.My kids will bound to collapse when they learn history in 2020.Who's next?Ukraine or Congo？

Shanghai industrial complex wrote:Another one.My kids will bound to collapse when they learn history in 2020.Who's next?Ukraine or Congo？

BREAKING NEWS: Ukraine launches offensive into ethnic Russian seperatists.

THIS JUST IN: Both Congo's fight to unify and decide best Congo.

TOP STORY: Bokasa comes back from the dead and declares Central African Empire, declares war on all his neighbors and both Congo's, starting a three way war.

Punished UMN wrote:

Shofercia wrote:
The mind must be a separatist region of the body of whichever "reporter" wrote that crap. Nagorno-Karabakh has been Armenian dating back at least over the past 500 years? I'm not talking about the carousel of rulers, I'm talking about most of the people actually living in the region. How've you been UMN?

Doing pretty good, but about to go to bed. Only in journalism and diplomacy is a country that has been independent for 29 years a "separatist region." lol

Good to hear! Speaking of modern day journalism, I think that Richard Lewis nailed it:

In the past 2 hours we've had verified journalists falsely spread Rick Fox was on the helicopter, ABC falsely say all of Kobe's daughters were on board, all outlets misreport the death toll, a co-ordinated smear campaign against Kobe's legacy from online journalists...

... MSNBC broke the news uttering a racial epithet and the BBC using footage of Lebron James in their tribute to Kobe. Tell me some more about how journalism isn't broken.

It shouldn't be that difficult to get the basic facts right.

What I don't understand is why we should care. I mean, worst comes to worst some random foreigners murder each other a bunch.