Armenia-Azerbaijan Border Skirmishes

[Shofercia]

Russia didn't give Armenia a black check; Russia said that Armenia will be defended, if Armenia's attacked on its de facto soil. That's not a blank check to go and raid Baku. The issue with Germany's blank check to Austria-Hungary, was that Austria-Hungary used it to annex Serbia, even though Serbia met 9.5/10 of Austria's insane demands, with the Serbs asking that an international court, rather than Austria-Hungary's biased court, handle the case. That was the only objection.

Serbia: "yes, we'll meet the prosecutor's insane demands, but can we please have a fair and unbiased Judge?"
Austria-Hungary: "WAR! YOU WANT WAR! YOU SHALL HAVE WAR!"
Rest of Europe: "well... shit, I guess we're doing this"

As for what happened in Nagorno-Karabakh, something similar happened in Nakhichkevan in reverse. Now there are so few Armenians in Nakhichkevan, and so few Azeris in Nagorno-Karabakh, that they can all be picked up by a single plane. And the tensions that led to the crisis were exacerbated by Gorbachev's Operation Ring.

Not to go off topic, but Wilhelm II arrived from vacation on July 28th-when Austria-Hungary declared war. He looked at the Serbian list and said that there was no reason to go to war. If he arrived a bit earlier, the blank check would likely be gone. Also, my source is Extra Credits' video from 2014.

Just saying.

I'm reading a book on how WWI started, and it's a comedy of errors. No country's blameless. It'd be interesting to do a thread on that.

Ah, Caucasian domino theory. I remember arguing with you about this years ago.

Sorry, just saw this. Since this is a Caucasian thread, let's just review what happened.

1985 - Gorbachev comes to power. Even seen him visit the Caucasus without armed bodyguards? Doubt it, since for that region, he's viewed as mostly demonic.

1988 - February: Armenia and Azerbaijan go to war. It lasts until 1994. Remember that year.
1991 - April/May: Gorbachev's disastrous Operation Ring exacerbates tensions in the region. There is no turning back.
1991-1992: Georgia's most militant faction, led by Gamzakhurdia, goes to war with South Ossetia, and loses.
1992-1993: Having lost in Ossetia, Gamzakhurdia tries Abkhazia; that's like asking to play the Patriots after losing the Bills. He gets his ass kicked.
1994-1996: After the wars in Georgia/South Ossetia/Abkhazia and Armenia/Azerbaijan/Nagorno-Karabakh/Nakhichkevan settled down, it's time for the First Chechen War!
1996-1999: Yeltsin, deciding to follow Gorbachev's policy in the Caucasus, turns tail and runs like a little drunk bitch, after igniting an unpopular war, betraying the Russian Armed Force. In the meantime, the International Islamic Peacekeeping Brigade, which is neither international, nor peacekeeping, nor really giving a shit about Islamic traditions, actually they're the forerunners of ISIS, takes advantage of weakened Chechnya and take it out.
1999: Dagestan War! Using Chechnya as a base, and after enslaving and raping quite a bit of the local populace, (somehow Western Human Rights experts were mostly silent on this issue,) IIPB/ISIS declares that all of Southern Russia is theirs for the taking, and invades Dagestan. Runs into Russian Armed Forces and gets ass kicked.
1999-2000: Putin helps out the Russian Armed Forces with logistics and lets them do their thing. IIPB is routed, bitchslapped, and annihilated.

I wonder, what would've happened, if the USSR bitch-slapped the provocateurs of the first war? Don't have to wonder, we know.

2008: Georgia attacks South Ossetia. Russia destroys Georgian Armed Forces in less than two weeks. Everyone in the region shuts the fuck up, while the Western Media bleats about Russian aggression, thus completely discrediting themselves in Russia, and giving Putin a card to play with China.

Fairly certain that the Domino Theory works for the Caucasus. Also, fairly certain that Russia won't let this escalate, except for a few minor skirmishes.

[Federal Republic Of America And The Cari]

I thought they'd care at least a bit about their closest ally with ethnic ties, though yes I'd also be surprised if Turkey declared war over it unless Armenia were doing really really well.

I'm sure Recep Tayyip Erdogan the Turkish supremacist would be more than willing to take advantage of the situation just to kill Armenians. This man probably mourns the Armenian genocide only in the sense that they didn't successfully wipe every Armenian out. He's a racist and a tyrant on a mission to bring death to locations across the middle east. Armenia needs to watch out.

Shall we create greater armenia?

[Exalted Inquellian State]

Not to go off topic, but Wilhelm II arrived from vacation on July 28th-when Austria-Hungary declared war. He looked at the Serbian list and said that there was no reason to go to war. If he arrived a bit earlier, the blank check would likely be gone. Also, my source is Extra Credits' video from 2014.

Just saying.

I'm reading a book on how WWI started, and it's a comedy of errors. No country's blameless. It'd be interesting to do a thread on that.

Yeah, the video shows that too, I'm pretty sure.

Anyway, we talked about WW1 briefly, lets go back to Caucasus before this thread dies.

[Shofercia]

I'm reading a book on how WWI started, and it's a comedy of errors. No country's blameless. It'd be interesting to do a thread on that.

Yeah, the video shows that too, I'm pretty sure.

Anyway, we talked about WW1 briefly, lets go back to Caucasus before this thread dies.

Georgian Cuisine is amazing. Have you tried it?

[Slavakino]

Watch Russia support Armenia. Armenia gang

[Slavakino]

These border skirmishes make me wonder when WW3 is gonna start, and hopefully against china

[Federal Republic Of America And The Cari]

Watch Russia support Armenia. Armenia gang

Pretty likely, especially since imperial russia kicked ottoman turkeys ass a couple of times

[Thermodolia]

Not to go off topic, but Wilhelm II arrived from vacation on July 28th-when Austria-Hungary declared war. He looked at the Serbian list and said that there was no reason to go to war. If he arrived a bit earlier, the blank check would likely be gone. Also, my source is Extra Credits' video from 2014.

Just saying.

I'm reading a book on how WWI started, and it's a comedy of errors. No country's blameless. It'd be interesting to do a thread on that.

Ah, Caucasian domino theory. I remember arguing with you about this years ago.

Sorry, just saw this. Since this is a Caucasian thread, let's just review what happened.

1985 - Gorbachev comes to power. Even seen him visit the Caucasus without armed bodyguards? Doubt it, since for that region, he's viewed as mostly demonic.

1988 - February: Armenia and Azerbaijan go to war. It lasts until 1994. Remember that year.
1991 - April/May: Gorbachev's disastrous Operation Ring exacerbates tensions in the region. There is no turning back.
1991-1992: Georgia's most militant faction, led by Gamzakhurdia, goes to war with South Ossetia, and loses.
1992-1993: Having lost in Ossetia, Gamzakhurdia tries Abkhazia; that's like asking to play the Patriots after losing the Bills. He gets his ass kicked.
1994-1996: After the wars in Georgia/South Ossetia/Abkhazia and Armenia/Azerbaijan/Nagorno-Karabakh/Nakhichkevan settled down, it's time for the First Chechen War!
1996-1999: Yeltsin, deciding to follow Gorbachev's policy in the Caucasus, turns tail and runs like a little drunk bitch, after igniting an unpopular war, betraying the Russian Armed Force. In the meantime, the International Islamic Peacekeeping Brigade, which is neither international, nor peacekeeping, nor really giving a shit about Islamic traditions, actually they're the forerunners of ISIS, takes advantage of weakened Chechnya and take it out.
1999: Dagestan War! Using Chechnya as a base, and after enslaving and raping quite a bit of the local populace, (somehow Western Human Rights experts were mostly silent on this issue,) IIPB/ISIS declares that all of Southern Russia is theirs for the taking, and invades Dagestan. Runs into Russian Armed Forces and gets ass kicked.
1999-2000: Putin helps out the Russian Armed Forces with logistics and lets them do their thing. IIPB is routed, bitchslapped, and annihilated.

I wonder, what would've happened, if the USSR bitch-slapped the provocateurs of the first war? Don't have to wonder, we know.

2008: Georgia attacks South Ossetia. Russia destroys Georgian Armed Forces in less than two weeks. Everyone in the region shuts the fuck up, while the Western Media bleats about Russian aggression, thus completely discrediting themselves in Russia, and giving Putin a card to play with China.

Fairly certain that the Domino Theory works for the Caucasus. Also, fairly certain that Russia won't let this escalate, except for a few minor skirmishes.

This is all just a bunch of saber rattling to keep the populace of Azerbaijan from realizing they are being fucked by a dictator and his family

[The Yellow Emperor]

When do we actually see Wilsonian Armenia? On the side note... I hope both parties can make a deal of sorts.

[Novus America]

Watch Russia support Armenia. Armenia gang

Pretty likely, especially since imperial russia kicked ottoman turkeys ass a couple of times

Although Russia has an alliance with Armenia, Russia does not want a fight with Azerbaijan and Turkey either, (in fact it is selling weapons to all three, Armenia, Azerbaijan AND Turkey) so they will try to avoid outright war while still keeping tensions up enough to give Russia leverage by playing both sides.

Russia needs Turkey to be on good terms regarding Syria and Bosporus.

Things are quite different than the were in the 1800s.

Contemporary Russia is not the old Imperial Russia.

[New Rogernomics]

I'm reading a book on how WWI started, and it's a comedy of errors. No country's blameless. It'd be interesting to do a thread on that.

I'd recommend getting your hands on some of the war victory/war romanticism fiction at the time, as all the sides had a version of the story where their nation conquered their rivals and reigned supreme, and even the war being over by Christmas. Helps you understand the mentality that brought them to war, as most people on either side entered the war believing they would have total victory.

[W erp]

Yes Azerbaijan behaves terribly alot but can we not give the Armenians a blank check for all the shit they got away with? Ethnically cleansing Karabakh and then pretending that the whole of it (not just the Armenian areas) is their manifest destiny - definitely unproblematic behavior we should all condone.


Ah, Caucasian domino theory. I remember arguing with you about this years ago.

Russia didn't give Armenia a black check; Russia said that Armenia will be defended, if Armenia's attacked on its de facto soil. That's not a blank check to go and raid Baku. The issue with Germany's blank check to Austria-Hungary, was that Austria-Hungary used it to annex Serbia, even though Serbia met 9.5/10 of Austria's insane demands, with the Serbs asking that an international court, rather than Austria-Hungary's biased court, handle the case. That was the only objection.

Serbia: "yes, we'll meet the prosecutor's insane demands, but can we please have a fair and unbiased Judge?"
Austria-Hungary: "WAR! YOU WANT WAR! YOU SHALL HAVE WAR!"
Rest of Europe: "well... shit, I guess we're doing this"

As for what happened in Nagorno-Karabakh, something similar happened in Nakhichkevan in reverse. Now there are so few Armenians in Nakhichkevan, and so few Azeris in Nagorno-Karabakh, that they can all be picked up by a single plane. And the tensions that led to the crisis were exacerbated by Gorbachev's Operation Ring.

....

I wasn’t referring to Russia. This seems like you deliberately misinterpret me in order to write a weird post. And what’s with this obsession over Operation Ring. Do not obsess over such things, friend, it makes you appear much more nutty.

[W erp]

A good article for those willing to read it.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2020/07/18/fire_in_the_caucasus_can_it_be_extinguished_115475.amp.html?__twitter_impression=true

Coincidentally, this is occurring just as the PM of Armenia began his ‘whacking’ ( ) of the pro-Russian opposition party and its oligarch leader. Russia told Yerevan to respect political pluralism. It’ll be interesting to see what affect this has on the internal state of Armenia.

[Shofercia]

Russia didn't give Armenia a black check; Russia said that Armenia will be defended, if Armenia's attacked on its de facto soil. That's not a blank check to go and raid Baku. The issue with Germany's blank check to Austria-Hungary, was that Austria-Hungary used it to annex Serbia, even though Serbia met 9.5/10 of Austria's insane demands, with the Serbs asking that an international court, rather than Austria-Hungary's biased court, handle the case. That was the only objection.

Serbia: "yes, we'll meet the prosecutor's insane demands, but can we please have a fair and unbiased Judge?"
Austria-Hungary: "WAR! YOU WANT WAR! YOU SHALL HAVE WAR!"
Rest of Europe: "well... shit, I guess we're doing this"

As for what happened in Nagorno-Karabakh, something similar happened in Nakhichkevan in reverse. Now there are so few Armenians in Nakhichkevan, and so few Azeris in Nagorno-Karabakh, that they can all be picked up by a single plane. And the tensions that led to the crisis were exacerbated by Gorbachev's Operation Ring.

....

I wasn’t referring to Russia. This seems like you deliberately misinterpret me in order to write a weird post. And what’s with this obsession over Operation Ring. Do not obsess over such things, friend, it makes you appear much more nutty.

Obsession? I bring up Gorbachev's ethnic cleansing in the Caucasus in a thread about the Caucasus, so that the public's informed, and not misled that he was some type of hero, when he was clearly a villain, at least in that region. It's important to be truthful, and if that makes me nutty, so be it. However, if I misinterpreted your post, my mistake.

A good article for those willing to read it.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2020/07/18/fire_in_the_caucasus_can_it_be_extinguished_115475.amp.html?__twitter_impression=true

Coincidentally, this is occurring just as the PM of Armenia began his ‘whacking’ ( ) of the pro-Russian opposition party and its oligarch leader. Russia told Yerevan to respect political pluralism. It’ll be interesting to see what affect this has on the internal state of Armenia.

There's a difference between Russia funding Armenia, and Russia keeping peace in the Caucasus Region. One's a necessity for Russia, the other's a luxury. If the 'whacking' continues, Armenia might meet the Russian bureaucracy when it comes to trade deals, but Russia's still going to defend Armenia if it's attacked by Azerbaijan.

[Shofercia]

This is all just a bunch of saber rattling to keep the populace of Azerbaijan from realizing they are being fucked by a dictator and his family

Let's hope that you're right, and this'll go nowhere. 2020 doesn't need another war.

I'm reading a book on how WWI started, and it's a comedy of errors. No country's blameless. It'd be interesting to do a thread on that.

I'd recommend getting your hands on some of the war victory/war romanticism fiction at the time, as all the sides had a version of the story where their nation conquered their rivals and reigned supreme, and even the war being over by Christmas. Helps you understand the mentality that brought them to war, as most people on either side entered the war believing they would have total victory.

Sounds interesting, thank you! Seems like there's popular demand for a WWI thread. My worry is that if I start the thread, people will just talk about contemporary politics, and then go "see, this is totes like WWI!" when it's not even close.

[The Cazistan]

I'm surprised Erdogan hasn't tried to invade both in the name of reforming the Ottoman Empire tbh

[Shanghai industrial complex]

I'm surprised Erdogan hasn't tried to invade both in the name of reforming the Ottoman Empire tbh

Then get beaten up by Russian?Collective Security Treaty Organization---A remnant of the Soviet Union

[The Cazistan]

I'm surprised Erdogan hasn't tried to invade both in the name of reforming the Ottoman Empire tbh

Then get beaten up by Russian?Collective Security Treaty Organization---A remnant of the Soviet Union

Some of it's signatories have flipped sides since then like Georgia and Ukraine
It'd be more likely that Russia would "intervene" only to help Turkey and assert regional dominance with Turkey and Iran over the caucuses

[W erp]

By the way, Gamsakhurdia did not start the Abkhaz war. He was couped before it erupted. Shof’s error on this important detail should be taken as proof of his neo-colonialist attitude, blaming all violent activity in the global south to the madness of fiery nationalist masses and justifying their subjugation by benevolent forces. The White Russian’s Burden. ( )

Further proof: See his contempt for Armenia getting rid of its own oligarchs.

[Shofercia]

By the way, Gamsakhurdia did not start the Abkhaz war. He was couped before it erupted. Shof’s error on this important detail should be taken as proof of his neo-colonialist attitude, blaming all violent activity in the global south to the madness of fiery nationalist masses and justifying their subjugation by benevolent forces. The White Russian’s Burden. ( )

Further proof: See his contempt for Armenia getting rid of its own oligarchs.

And what we have here folks is Werp attempting to pretend that a tree represents a forest, and lying, as usual. I didn't state that Russia's defending the Caucasus out of the goodness of Russia's Heart; I stated that Russia's defending the Caucasus in order to avoid escalation on Russia's territory. At no point did I claim that it was the White Russian's Burden.

To paraphrase Werp point a bit, just to show how idiotic it truly is:

By the way, White Russians are Belorussians, not Russians. The White Russian language was referred to in the Russian Imperial Census. Werp's error on this important detail should be taken as proof of his anti-Slav attitude, blaming all violent activity in Eastern Europe to the madness of Slavic Imperialism and justifying their subjugation by Slavic Forces. The Clueless Burden. ( )

Regarding Armenia's Oligarchs, I've stated that Russia will defend Armenia, irrespective of what happens, due to Russia's own national security issues, which trump a few trade agreements. This is what Werp referred to as contempt.

It's interesting what you're doing here, Werp, where I clearly presented the case for the Caucasian Domino Theory, proving it with facts, and you're only rebuttal was "haha, you got the wrong nationalist leader, clearly you know nothing!" Except, as far as my major point was concerned, the name of the nationalist doesn't really matter. Georgia started the war, and according to battle maps, the plan wasn't to just take back Georgian lands; it was to take back all of Abkhazia. Sounds like a fiery nationalist war to me.

As for the neo-colonialist allegation, now you're just making everyone laugh. I opposed the First Chechen War, and I'm ready to justify any war that I've supported. At no point in time, will I use Neo-Colonialism as a Justification. Bring it.

But you can't. All you can do is hope that I make a minor mistake, and try to present said tree as the forest, wait for me to call you out on it, and then the rest of us laugh.

[Shofercia]

Then get beaten up by Russian?Collective Security Treaty Organization---A remnant of the Soviet Union

Some of it's signatories have flipped sides since then like Georgia and Ukraine
It'd be more likely that Russia would "intervene" only to help Turkey and assert regional dominance with Turkey and Iran over the caucuses

Why would Russia help Turkey in the Caucasus? That makes no sense whatsoever. The Caucasus has three semi-recognized states, three minor UN members, and three major UN members, where the delicate balance of power is preserved. Why would you need to assert dominance over it, unless some idiot decides to challenge the balance of power with something other than words and very strongly worded letters?

[W erp]

By the way, Gamsakhurdia did not start the Abkhaz war. He was couped before it erupted. Shof’s error on this important detail should be taken as proof of his neo-colonialist attitude, blaming all violent activity in the global south to the madness of fiery nationalist masses and justifying their subjugation by benevolent forces. The White Russian’s Burden. ( )

Further proof: See his contempt for Armenia getting rid of its own oligarchs.

And what we have here folks is Werp attempting to pretend that a tree represents a forest, and lying, as usual. I didn't state that Russia's defending the Caucasus out of the goodness of Russia's Heart; I stated that Russia's defending the Caucasus in order to avoid escalation on Russia's territory. At no point did I claim that it was the White Russian's Burden.

To paraphrase Werp point a bit, just to show how idiotic it truly is:

By the way, White Russians are Belorussians, not Russians. The White Russian language was referred to in the Russian Imperial Census. Werp's error on this important detail should be taken as proof of his anti-Slav attitude, blaming all violent activity in Eastern Europe to the madness of Slavic Imperialism and justifying their subjugation by Slavic Forces. The Clueless Burden. ( )

Regarding Armenia's Oligarchs, I've stated that Russia will defend Armenia, irrespective of what happens, due to Russia's own national security issues, which trump a few trade agreements. This is what Werp referred to as contempt.

It's interesting what you're doing here, Werp, where I clearly presented the case for the Caucasian Domino Theory, proving it with facts, and you're only rebuttal was "haha, you got the wrong nationalist leader, clearly you know nothing!" Except, as far as my major point was concerned, the name of the nationalist doesn't really matter. Georgia started the war, and according to battle maps, the plan wasn't to just take back Georgian lands; it was to take back all of Abkhazia. Sounds like a fiery nationalist war to me.

As for the neo-colonialist allegation, now you're just making everyone laugh. I opposed the First Chechen War, and I'm ready to justify any war that I've supported. At no point in time, will I use Neo-Colonialism as a Justification. Bring it.

But you can't. All you can do is hope that I make a minor mistake, and try to present said tree as the forest, wait for me to call you out on it, and then the rest of us laugh.

What we have here is Werp meme’ing (as evidenced by the emoji) and Shof responding to the meme instead of owning up to his mistake. Yes, I see your allusion to it at the end there but that simply isn’t an accurate description of the crime you have committed.

To keep this discussion relevant to the thread, let’s agree that in order to make a general claim about the geopolitics of the area we should be sensitive and responsive to claims by others that we have misconstrued certain important historical facts. It is not just arbitrary that Shevardnadze’s government rather than Gamsakhurdia. The two were very different figures, as you know, and switching one for the other as you did could certainly come to be interpreted in a way which would misconstrue the origins of the conflict. More importantly, it would help your unfounded argument that one thing in the Caucasus leads to another by having Gamsakhurdia serve as a link between two conflicts. I do not want, nor think we are in the appropriate place to, go into the specifics of the Abkhaz and South Ossetian conflicts though, so let’s leave it at that. You have yet to demonstrate any causality between the different conflict. The fact that they were all partially resulting from the USSR’s collapse is not sufficient because many other empires in history have dominated the Caucasus besides Russia. What stops me from coming up with some general common characteristic of the Caucasus based on historical events which occurred only as a result of the pervasive influence of another force, like the Ottoman Empire?

[Adamede]

I'm surprised Erdogan hasn't tried to invade both in the name of reforming the Ottoman Empire tbh

Don't see how he could do that. Armenia is backed by Russia, and Georgia is backed by America, Iran is too powerful for them in the east, the Kurds are too well entrenched in Iraq, they;re already involved in Syria, and Cyprus, Greece, and Bulgaria are all in the EU.

[Shofercia]

And what we have here folks is Werp attempting to pretend that a tree represents a forest, and lying, as usual. I didn't state that Russia's defending the Caucasus out of the goodness of Russia's Heart; I stated that Russia's defending the Caucasus in order to avoid escalation on Russia's territory. At no point did I claim that it was the White Russian's Burden.

To paraphrase Werp point a bit, just to show how idiotic it truly is:



Regarding Armenia's Oligarchs, I've stated that Russia will defend Armenia, irrespective of what happens, due to Russia's own national security issues, which trump a few trade agreements. This is what Werp referred to as contempt.

It's interesting what you're doing here, Werp, where I clearly presented the case for the Caucasian Domino Theory, proving it with facts, and you're only rebuttal was "haha, you got the wrong nationalist leader, clearly you know nothing!" Except, as far as my major point was concerned, the name of the nationalist doesn't really matter. Georgia started the war, and according to battle maps, the plan wasn't to just take back Georgian lands; it was to take back all of Abkhazia. Sounds like a fiery nationalist war to me.

As for the neo-colonialist allegation, now you're just making everyone laugh. I opposed the First Chechen War, and I'm ready to justify any war that I've supported. At no point in time, will I use Neo-Colonialism as a Justification. Bring it.

But you can't. All you can do is hope that I make a minor mistake, and try to present said tree as the forest, wait for me to call you out on it, and then the rest of us laugh.

What we have here is Werp meme’ing (as evidenced by the emoji) and Shof responding to the meme instead of owning up to his mistake. Yes, I see your allusion to it at the end there but that simply isn’t an accurate description of the crime you have committed.

Naming the wrong nationalist leader is now a crime... you do you Werp, you do you. And I instantly admitted that I've stated the wrong name.

To keep this discussion relevant to the thread, let’s agree that in order to make a general claim about the geopolitics of the area we should be sensitive and responsive to claims by others that we have misconstrued certain important historical facts. It is not just arbitrary that Shevardnadze’s government rather than Gamsakhurdia.

I didn't say it was arbitrary; I said that it wasn't really important to the main point that I've made regarding the Domino Theory. Shevardnadze was still pandering to rabid nationalism when he started the disastrous War with Abkhazia. Regular nationalism's ok. Rabid nationalism isn't. I got the leader's name wrong. That's it. At the end of this post, I'll requote my entire argument, and clearly show my mistake, because it makes absolutely no dent in the main point that I've successfully made.

The two were very different figures, as you know, and switching one for the other as you did could certainly come to be interpreted in a way which would misconstrue the origins of the conflict. More importantly, it would help your unfounded argument that one thing in the Caucasus leads to another by having Gamsakhurdia serve as a link between two conflicts.

When the entire region goes to shit, you don't need to have every single person be a link, Werp. You just don't. The link was Gorbachev's piss poor Caucasian Policy, followed by Yeltsin's Drunk Caucasian Policy. The link was one war creating refugees and guerrilla fighters that shifted to another war. The link was that general disorder in the region encouraged warfare. Gamzakhurdia as a vital link? What the actual fuck Werp? And yes, they were two different figures, but they were both pandering to rabid nationalism when the wars started.

I do not want, nor think we are in the appropriate place to, go into the specifics of the Abkhaz and South Ossetian conflicts though, so let’s leave it at that. You have yet to demonstrate any causality between the different conflict.

I showed what happened to the region when a conflict was allowed to thrive, and what happened when a conflict was nipped in the bud within two weeks. But you're welcome to completely ignore the reality that was demonstrated.

The fact that they were all partially resulting from the USSR’s collapse is not sufficient because many other empires in history have dominated the Caucasus besides Russia. What stops me from coming up with some general common characteristic of the Caucasus based on historical events which occurred only as a result of the pervasive influence of another force, like the Ottoman Empire?

The USSR fell apart in the 1990s, so it's logical to presume that the 1990s wars were a result of actions that happened in the 1990s, rather than almost a century earlier, so nothing aside from logic would stop you from coming up with those crazy theories.

And now here's my argument, with the mistake that Werp pointed out, fixed. Let's see how vital it really was:

1985 - Gorbachev comes to power. Even seen him visit the Caucasus without armed bodyguards? Doubt it, since for that region, he's viewed as mostly demonic.

1988 - February: Armenia and Azerbaijan go to war. It lasts until 1994. Remember that year.
1991 - April/May: Gorbachev's disastrous Operation Ring exacerbates tensions in the region. There is no turning back.
1991-1992: Georgia's most militant faction, led by Gamzakhurdia, goes to war with South Ossetia, and loses.
1992-1993: Having After his country lost in Ossetia, Gamzakhurdia and the previous leader was couped, Shevardnadze tries Abkhazia; that's like asking to play the Patriots after losing the Bills. He gets his ass kicked.
1994-1996: After the wars in Georgia/South Ossetia/Abkhazia and Armenia/Azerbaijan/Nagorno-Karabakh/Nakhichkevan settled down, it's time for the First Chechen War!
1996-1999: Yeltsin, deciding to follow Gorbachev's policy in the Caucasus, turns tail and runs like a little drunk bitch, after igniting an unpopular war, betraying the Russian Armed Force. In the meantime, the International Islamic Peacekeeping Brigade, which is neither international, nor peacekeeping, nor really giving a shit about Islamic traditions, actually they're the forerunners of ISIS, takes advantage of weakened Chechnya and take it out.
1999: Dagestan War! Using Chechnya as a base, and after enslaving and raping quite a bit of the local populace, (somehow Western Human Rights experts were mostly silent on this issue,) IIPB/ISIS declares that all of Southern Russia is theirs for the taking, and invades Dagestan. Runs into Russian Armed Forces and gets ass kicked.
1999-2000: Putin helps out the Russian Armed Forces with logistics and lets them do their thing. IIPB is routed, bitchslapped, and annihilated.

I wonder, what would've happened, if the USSR bitch-slapped the provocateurs of the first war? Don't have to wonder, we know.

2008: Georgia attacks South Ossetia. Russia destroys Georgian Armed Forces in less than two weeks. Everyone in the region shuts the fuck up, while the Western Media bleats about Russian aggression, thus completely discrediting themselves in Russia, and giving Putin a card to play with China.

Fairly certain that the Domino Theory works for the Caucasus. Also, fairly certain that Russia won't let this escalate, except for a few minor skirmishes.

Does anyone here, aside from Werp, think that the argument's had a major change?

[Shofercia]

Russia wants peace in the Caucasus, because if there's war - Russia's going to get involved and have casualties, so better to nip the issue in the bud right away. Azerbaijan tends to start shit in the region; Armenia doesn't. Math's fairly simple. Plus, Armenia's a more reliable ally than Azerbaijan.

This time Russia is supporting Azerbaidjan though because Armenia was more pro-american in the Last years. Even the chief of RT Margarita Simonjan who is Armenian has critised the armenian government.

Nope. While Russia can criticize the Armenian Government, the minute Azerbaijan actually invades or massively escalates the current crisis, they're going to get a stern warning, following by military action if they don't cut their crap. Caucasian Security trumps local political bullshitting.