Novus America wrote:Russia could not retake those territories either.
Look at the Russo Japanese war.
Beijing is far closer to Vladivostok than Moscow is, and the PRC has far better infrastructure in the region.
Russia cannot defend the region.
Russia’s (not very large, its land forces including the Airborne Troops (which oddly are a separate branch from the other ground forces)) are only 350,000 men and almost all concentrated in Europe. Russia’s Pacific Fleet is very small.
Russia does not have the logistics to fight in the Far East.
It cannot get large numbers there, and then supply or support them. Actually invading Russia works quite well historically IF you merely take out the peripheral regions. Russia being a logistics nightmare can work against an invader IF the invader goes too far into Russia, but Russia being a logistics nightmare also leaves Russia weak to an attacker who avoids going on deep.
The PRC merely needs to overrun Outer Manchuria and then they can easily defend it against an Russian counterattack.
Obviously the PRC cannot march to Moscow but does not need too.
Loss of strength gradient means you get weaker the farther you go from your logistics base.
Russia’s logistics base is in Europe. The PRC’s is in East China.
East China is much closer to Outer Manchuria than Europe.
Besides the Russian economy is surprisingly small, (Texas has a bigger economy than all Russia) too small for a prolonged war against the PRC and the PRC has ten times the population. The PRC can fight to the last Russian and still have plenty of men to spare.
Russia is in bad shape. Sure the PRC would have no real allies, BUT neither would Russia.
By alienating the West Russia has no where left to turn. Russia would need the US and Japan to save it.
In the end Russia would at best merely sit the thing out.
Russia cannot beat the PRC in the Far East on its own, has few allies, and India would be little help, because India cannot really get supplies or troops to Russia, India can tie down large numbers of PRC troops in the south but the PRC does not need many to beat Russia in the Far East, where Russia has only a minimal screening force. The largely defensive Indian Navy cannot fight the PRC in the Pacific (without US and Japanese help that is).
Russia (incorrectly) fears NATO more than the PRC (fighting the PRC would require Russia pulling nearly all its troops from Europe, as including Ukraine) leaving it defenseless in the west.
Russia cannot fight a two front war. Although NATO would not attack, Russia fears it would.
Would Russia really leave Europe undefended to try to move its entire military thousands of miles across horrible terrain with limited roads and railroads to try to counterattack? And how are the Russians going to successfully counter attack far larger PRC forces?
In WWII the Soviets were fighting in Europe and had a numerical advantage (not as large as some make it out to be but it still had one).
Half the Soviet Union (Russia was only half of it) against a far larger enemy in Asia would be a completely different game.