2020 US General Election Thread VII: Summer of Discontent

[Outer Sparta]

I'm hoping Greenfield wins in Iowa. Ernst hasn't done anything in her mission to "make the big spenders squeal."

In 2014, when one squinted and craned their neck and it was still possible to envision a more humanistic, more tolerant America, Bruce Braley spoke clumsily and lost because certain voters were turned on by a woman referring to castration as part of a public bid for attention.

We really deserve Iowa.

Iowa giant Tom Harkin ultimately retired in 2014, but if he still ran, he would have done a lot better than Braley.

[Aureumterra]

AZ is more likely to flip than WI.

FL will be stolen, TX and GA I'm not super confident about but the primary in GA looked really promising. NC will probably flip, too.

Purely anecdotally speaking Florida’s culture has been taking a sharp rightward turn, at least the Cubans who were mildly right wing in 2016 have become full on Trump cultists by now.

At this point the most likely scenario is Trump losing Pennsylvania and Michigan, and possibly Wisconsin. If he keeps Wisconsin, he will win by two electoral votes. This means that it will just take three faithless electors and we could potentially have the first election in history upset by faithless electors. Although in such a scenario we will see political upheaval on a scale not seen since the election of Lincoln

Faithless electors? I don’t know much about the ins and outs of the US election system

[Kowani]

Purely anecdotally speaking Florida’s culture has been taking a sharp rightward turn, at least the Cubans who were mildly right wing in 2016 have become full on Trump cultists by now.

At this point the most likely scenario is Trump losing Pennsylvania and Michigan, and possibly Wisconsin. If he keeps Wisconsin, he will win by two electoral votes. This means that it will just take three faithless electors and we could potentially have the first election in history upset by faithless electors. Although in such a scenario we will see political upheaval on a scale not seen since the election of Lincoln

Faithless electors? I don’t know much about the ins and outs of the US election system

Electors who don’t vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state.

[Farnhamia]

Faithless electors? I don’t know much about the ins and outs of the US election system

Electors who don’t vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state.

No, they do not vote for the candidate to whom they are pledged.

[Kowani]

Electors who don’t vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state.

No, they do not vote for the candidate to whom they are pledged.

Ahh.

[Shrillland]

And here's some unexpected news: https://www.roanoke.com/news/local/live-updates-voting-ends-in-5th-congressional-district-republican-convention-outside-lynchburg/article_95b8502a-d3a5-58f3-baaa-21d32326e759.html

For those who don't know, Virginia allows its parties to have primaries or conventions for their races. There will be two in Virginia, the one tonight and one for the 7th(Culpeper-Glen Allen). In the US House district of Charlottesville-Danville(5th), current incumbent Republican Denver Riggleman has had a convention induced, which took place tonight, after he officiated a gay wedding, which was unacceptable in a district that contains most of Liberty University. His competitor is Campbell County Supervisor and former Liberty University Athletics Director Bob Good. The polls closed five hours ago, but the numbers still aren't out yet.

[Cisairse]

New polls show Greenfield leading Ernst 46-43, Trump beating Biden in Missouri 50-41.

If Democrats manage to take the Iowa senate race, we probably will have a majority in the Senate.

And Trump is critically under-performing in states he won by double-digits in 2016. Missouri won't go blue but it might be closer then 2016.

50-41 isn't going to become 50-50. It'll most likely become 60-40.

Purely anecdotally speaking Florida’s culture has been taking a sharp rightward turn, at least the Cubans who were mildly right wing in 2016 have become full on Trump cultists by now.

At this point the most likely scenario is Trump losing Pennsylvania and Michigan, and possibly Wisconsin. If he keeps Wisconsin, he will win by two electoral votes. This means that it will just take three faithless electors and we could potentially have the first election in history upset by faithless electors. Although in such a scenario we will see political upheaval on a scale not seen since the election of Lincoln

Faithless electors? I don’t know much about the ins and outs of the US election system

So in the United States, the people do not elect the president. A small group of 538 people select the president based (mostly) on the popular vote of the 50 states plus the city of Washington, D.C.

Legally, the process for which those 538 people are selected is completely up to the individual states where they are from. In many states, there is no law stating that the elector must actually cast a vote for the person who they are "pledged" to (ie the person who won the popular vote in their state, or, in a single-digit number of districts nationwide, their congressional district). They can vote for whoever they want.

For example, this is the electoral map from the 2016 presidential election (which, in terms of the vote totals, was won easily by Hillary Clinton):



Only Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton received a plurality of votes in any state or congressional district. All of the other names you see here who received one or a couple votes were due to faithless electors who cast votes for people who they were technically pledged against.

So far, there has never been an instance where faithless electors determined the outcome of an election. However, if an election were unusually close, it is feasible that one would do so. The legality of faithless electors has been questioned, but, due to the specific wording of the U.S. Constitution, is likely to be upheld.

[San Lumen]

And here's some unexpected news: https://www.roanoke.com/news/local/live-updates-voting-ends-in-5th-congressional-district-republican-convention-outside-lynchburg/article_95b8502a-d3a5-58f3-baaa-21d32326e759.html

For those who don't know, Virginia allows its parties to have primaries or conventions for their races. There will be two in Virginia, the one tonight and one for the 7th(Culpeper-Glen Allen). In the US House district of Charlottesville-Danville(5th), current incumbent Republican Denver Riggleman has had a convention induced, which took place tonight, after he officiated a gay wedding, which was unacceptable in a district that contains most of Liberty University. His competitor is Campbell County Supervisor and former Liberty University Athletics Director Bob Good. The polls closed five hours ago, but the numbers still aren't out yet.

Is the convention replacing the primary or could it still go to one?

[Shrillland]

And here's some unexpected news: https://www.roanoke.com/news/local/live-updates-voting-ends-in-5th-congressional-district-republican-convention-outside-lynchburg/article_95b8502a-d3a5-58f3-baaa-21d32326e759.html

For those who don't know, Virginia allows its parties to have primaries or conventions for their races. There will be two in Virginia, the one tonight and one for the 7th(Culpeper-Glen Allen). In the US House district of Charlottesville-Danville(5th), current incumbent Republican Denver Riggleman has had a convention induced, which took place tonight, after he officiated a gay wedding, which was unacceptable in a district that contains most of Liberty University. His competitor is Campbell County Supervisor and former Liberty University Athletics Director Bob Good. The polls closed five hours ago, but the numbers still aren't out yet.

Is the convention replacing the primary or could it still go to one?

It replaced the primary. Virginia gives the parties the right to choose a convention if they believe the need arises.

[San Lumen]

Is the convention replacing the primary or could it still go to one?

It replaced the primary.

Therefore whomever wins will be the republican nominee? I assume this a ruby red district where a upset is unlikely or is it?

[Shrillland]

It replaced the primary.

Therefore whomever wins will be the republican nominee? I assume this a ruby red district where a upset is unlikely

Pretty much. They'll elect conservative Democrats on occasion, but it's fairly safe. Conventions for Congress aren't that unusual there, both parties had one in that district last time around.

[San Lumen]

Therefore whomever wins will be the republican nominee? I assume this a ruby red district where a upset is unlikely

Pretty much. They'll elect conservative Democrats on occasion, but it's fairly safe. Conventions for Congress aren't that unusual there, both parties had one in that district last time around.

I looked it up and Riggleman only got 53 percent of the vote in 2018

[Shrillland]

Pretty much. They'll elect conservative Democrats on occasion, but it's fairly safe. Conventions for Congress aren't that unusual there, both parties had one in that district last time around.

I looked it up and Riggleman only got 53 percent of the vote in 2018

Yes, but it's rated pretty safe, has a PVI of +5, and previous winners have averaged 55-58%.

[Outer Sparta]

Pretty much. They'll elect conservative Democrats on occasion, but it's fairly safe. Conventions for Congress aren't that unusual there, both parties had one in that district last time around.

I looked it up and Riggleman only got 53 percent of the vote in 2018

Although the district contains several cities, most notable of which is Charlottesville, it's basically mostly rural areas that give it an edge to the GOP.

[Shrillland]

Bob Good has won the district convention by a 58-42 margin: https://www.yahoo.com/news/rep-denver-riggleman-ousted-virginia-052751683.html

[Major-Tom]

I'm hoping Greenfield wins in Iowa. Ernst hasn't done anything in her mission to "make the big spenders squeal."

In 2014, when one squinted and craned their neck and it was still possible to envision a more humanistic, more tolerant America, Bruce Braley spoke clumsily and lost because certain voters were turned on by a woman referring to castration as part of a public bid for attention.

We really deserve Iowa.

Some people can't be persuaded by reason, the same is true in every nation, in every place. I don't know how else to explain people of the likes of Joni Ernst becoming popular.

[Cisairse]

Bob Good has won the district convention by a 58-42 margin: https://www.yahoo.com/news/rep-denver-riggleman-ousted-virginia-052751683.html

Anything interesting about Bob Good?

[Shrillland]

Bob Good has won the district convention by a 58-42 margin: https://www.yahoo.com/news/rep-denver-riggleman-ousted-virginia-052751683.html

Anything interesting about Bob Good?

As I said, he used to be the athletic director for Liberty University, he's now a supervisor for Campbell County, and he's officiated at no LGBT weddings, which is what caused the party to oust Riggleman. And I mean the party, just over 3,500 people showed up for the drive-thru convention, only party officials for the most part. And they're doing it again in mid-July for the far more competitive 7th district.

[The Huskar Social Union]

It would be 270 (R) to 268 (D) if he won after losing those two states, oof that would be close.

If either candidate gets just 270 you know -- you just know -- there will be at least 1 faithless elector who wants his name etched into history books.

"Trump wins with 270 EC votes"
"Well now im not doing it, 1 vote for Bernie Sanders!"

[Shrillland]

If either candidate gets just 270 you know -- you just know -- there will be at least 1 faithless elector who wants his name etched into history books.

"Trump wins with 270 EC votes"
"Well now im not doing it, 1 vote for Bernie Sanders!"

In that case, it would likely be 28-22 for Trump to win in the House...and a possible Democratic VP.

[Tombradyonia]

So crybaby Trump isn't gonna watch the NFL anymore because he might get his 'feelings' hurt? What a pathetic snowflake.

[The Huskar Social Union]

"Trump wins with 270 EC votes"
"Well now im not doing it, 1 vote for Bernie Sanders!"

In that case, it would likely be 28-22 for Trump to win in the House...and a possible Democratic VP.

Boy that would be hilarious

[San Lumen]

In that case, it would likely be 28-22 for Trump to win in the House...and a possible Democratic VP.

Boy that would be hilarious

No it wouldn’t. The unrest and protests that would likely ensue would be beyond anything imaginable

[Thermodolia]

Cities like Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia are all vital for Dems in those three key Midwestern states. Wisconsin is literally won and lost by Milwaukee County's turnout.

Trump can still win after losing Pennsylvania and Michigan, two states he has a good chance of losing. Ohio is pretty much a red state by this point, and I can’t see Florida going blue again, purely out of anecdote. Arizona, Texas, and Georgia, while turning blue, are not going to flip this election.

So this entire election may come down to Wisconsin

Georgia actually has a pretty high chance of turning blue this year.

[Thermodolia]

"Trump wins with 270 EC votes"
"Well now im not doing it, 1 vote for Bernie Sanders!"

In that case, it would likely be 28-22 for Trump to win in the House...and a possible Democratic VP.

Depends on the results of the election as the new Congress elects the president. And since all representatives from the states are required to vote as one it could drag on for a long ass time