2020 US General Election Thread VII: Summer of Discontent

[Cisairse]

While picking a VP specifically because of the protests would be a bad idea, I feel that removing candidates with a history that directly supports what is being protested against from consideration is a good idea. Dems have a chance to make police reform a core part of their message this November, and it would look really bad if someone with a history of abetting police brutality was helping deliver that message.

Such as *cough cough* Klobuchar.

Yep. And, depending on how the next three days go, KLB.

[Repubblica Fascista Sociale Italiana]

It’s also not like black people were going to vote for Trump anyways, considering how popular they are with Biden, so really focusing on black voters, a solid blue bloc, is the wrong strategy. Rust belt needs to be won back by Biden

[Northern Davincia]

It’s also not like black people were going to vote for Trump anyways, considering how popular they are with Biden, so really focusing on black voters, a solid blue bloc, is the wrong strategy. Rust belt needs to be won back by Biden

Biden will have an easier time with that than most Democrats.

[Cisairse]

It’s also not like black people were going to vote for Trump anyways, considering how popular they are with Biden, so really focusing on black voters, a solid blue bloc, is the wrong strategy. Rust belt needs to be won back by Biden

You can't just ignore turnout. The problem isn't convincing undecided voters to choose Biden; most of them will. The problem is getting pro-Biden voters to actually show up to the polls. There are certain demographics that historically have lower average turnout than others, and black voters are one of those demographics. Lower black turnout was one of the reasons Clinton lost.

This is actually key to retaking the Rust Belt. For example, Michigan is 21% nonwhite, the majority of those being African-American.

[South Odreria 2]

Such as *cough cough* Klobuchar.

Yep. And, depending on how the next three days go, KLB.

klb and klob

[Vassenor]

Just because you think a demographic is likely to vote for you doesn't mean you can ignore them - you might not need to win them over but you can still lose them.

[Cisairse]

Yep. And, depending on how the next three days go, KLB.

klb and klob

kl(o?)b if we're using regex

[Outer Sparta]

It’s also not like black people were going to vote for Trump anyways, considering how popular they are with Biden, so really focusing on black voters, a solid blue bloc, is the wrong strategy. Rust belt needs to be won back by Biden

You can't just ignore turnout. The problem isn't convincing undecided voters to choose Biden; most of them will. The problem is getting pro-Biden voters to actually show up to the polls. There are certain demographics that historically have lower average turnout than others, and black voters are one of those demographics. Lower black turnout was one of the reasons Clinton lost.

This is actually key to retaking the Rust Belt. For example, Michigan is 21% nonwhite, the majority of those being African-American.

Cities like Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia are all vital for Dems in those three key Midwestern states. Wisconsin is literally won and lost by Milwaukee County's turnout.

[Gormwood]

Just because you think a demographic is likely to vote for you doesn't mean you can ignore them - you might not need to win them over but you can still lose them.

The message was clear in 2016.

[Repubblica Fascista Sociale Italiana]

Just because you think a demographic is likely to vote for you doesn't mean you can ignore them - you might not need to win them over but you can still lose them.

I just can’t see the Democrats possibly losing black people anytime soon

[Valrifell]

Just because you think a demographic is likely to vote for you doesn't mean you can ignore them - you might not need to win them over but you can still lose them.

I just can’t see the Democrats possibly losing black people anytime soon

They don't need to "lose" the demographic to lose the election. A suppression of 2 - 4% in a couple of states is all it takes.

[Repubblica Fascista Sociale Italiana]

You can't just ignore turnout. The problem isn't convincing undecided voters to choose Biden; most of them will. The problem is getting pro-Biden voters to actually show up to the polls. There are certain demographics that historically have lower average turnout than others, and black voters are one of those demographics. Lower black turnout was one of the reasons Clinton lost.

This is actually key to retaking the Rust Belt. For example, Michigan is 21% nonwhite, the majority of those being African-American.

Cities like Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia are all vital for Dems in those three key Midwestern states. Wisconsin is literally won and lost by Milwaukee County's turnout.

Trump can still win after losing Pennsylvania and Michigan, two states he has a good chance of losing. Ohio is pretty much a red state by this point, and I can’t see Florida going blue again, purely out of anecdote. Arizona, Texas, and Georgia, while turning blue, are not going to flip this election.

So this entire election may come down to Wisconsin

[Cisairse]

Cities like Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia are all vital for Dems in those three key Midwestern states. Wisconsin is literally won and lost by Milwaukee County's turnout.

Trump can still win after losing Pennsylvania and Michigan, two states he has a good chance of losing. Ohio is pretty much a red state by this point, and I can’t see Florida going blue again, purely out of anecdote. Arizona, Texas, and Georgia, while turning blue, are not going to flip this election.

So this entire election may come down to Wisconsin

AZ is more likely to flip than WI.

FL will be stolen, TX and GA I'm not super confident about but the primary in GA looked really promising. NC will probably flip, too.

[The Huskar Social Union]

Cities like Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia are all vital for Dems in those three key Midwestern states. Wisconsin is literally won and lost by Milwaukee County's turnout.

Trump can still win after losing Pennsylvania and Michigan, two states he has a good chance of losing. Ohio is pretty much a red state by this point, and I can’t see Florida going blue again, purely out of anecdote. Arizona, Texas, and Georgia, while turning blue, are not going to flip this election.

So this entire election may come down to Wisconsin

It would be 270 (R) to 268 (D) if he won after losing those two states, oof that would be close.

[Repubblica Fascista Sociale Italiana]

Trump can still win after losing Pennsylvania and Michigan, two states he has a good chance of losing. Ohio is pretty much a red state by this point, and I can’t see Florida going blue again, purely out of anecdote. Arizona, Texas, and Georgia, while turning blue, are not going to flip this election.

So this entire election may come down to Wisconsin

AZ is more likely to flip than WI.

FL will be stolen, TX and GA I'm not super confident about but the primary in GA looked really promising. NC will probably flip, too.

Purely anecdotally speaking Florida’s culture has been taking a sharp rightward turn, at least the Cubans who were mildly right wing in 2016 have become full on Trump cultists by now.

At this point the most likely scenario is Trump losing Pennsylvania and Michigan, and possibly Wisconsin. If he keeps Wisconsin, he will win by two electoral votes. This means that it will just take three faithless electors and we could potentially have the first election in history upset by faithless electors. Although in such a scenario we will see political upheaval on a scale not seen since the election of Lincoln

[Outer Sparta]

Cities like Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia are all vital for Dems in those three key Midwestern states. Wisconsin is literally won and lost by Milwaukee County's turnout.

Trump can still win after losing Pennsylvania and Michigan, two states he has a good chance of losing. Ohio is pretty much a red state by this point, and I can’t see Florida going blue again, purely out of anecdote. Arizona, Texas, and Georgia, while turning blue, are not going to flip this election.

So this entire election may come down to Wisconsin

Arizona and North Carolina also have Senate races, so the candidates there could give coattails to the presidential race. If Mark Kelly keeps it up on Arizona, he'll cream McSally and Arizona might follow his coattails.

[Cisairse]

Trump can still win after losing Pennsylvania and Michigan, two states he has a good chance of losing. Ohio is pretty much a red state by this point, and I can’t see Florida going blue again, purely out of anecdote. Arizona, Texas, and Georgia, while turning blue, are not going to flip this election.

So this entire election may come down to Wisconsin

It would be 270 (R) to 268 (D) if he won after losing those two states, oof that would be close.

If either candidate gets just 270 you know -- you just know -- there will be at least 1 faithless elector who wants his name etched into history books.

[United States of Devonta]

Trump can still win after losing Pennsylvania and Michigan, two states he has a good chance of losing. Ohio is pretty much a red state by this point, and I can’t see Florida going blue again, purely out of anecdote. Arizona, Texas, and Georgia, while turning blue, are not going to flip this election.

So this entire election may come down to Wisconsin

AZ is more likely to flip than WI.

FL will be stolen, TX and GA I'm not super confident about but the primary in GA looked really promising. NC will probably flip, too.

If NC flips, Joe Biden will win the election. But he really doesen't even need it to win.

[United States of Devonta]

New state approval ratings by Civiqs.

Trump has double-digit negative approval in multiple swing states, including every rust belt state. And is disapproved of in all swing states, including traditionally safer red states like TX, Georgia, and AZ.

[Cisairse]

New state approval ratings by Civiqs.

Trump has double-digit negative approval in multiple swing states, including every rust belt state. And is disapproved of in all swing states, including traditionally safer red states like TX, Georgia, and AZ.

zoo wee mama

If that map becomes the EC map (which it won't), I hope Democrats will be hanging it up in Congress like the GOP did in 2017

[Major-Tom]

New state approval ratings by Civiqs.

Trump has double-digit negative approval in multiple swing states, including every rust belt state. And is disapproved of in all swing states, including traditionally safer red states like TX, Georgia, and AZ.

Finally, some delicious fucking polls.

[Jedi Council]

New polls show Greenfield leading Ernst 46-43, Trump beating Biden in Missouri 50-41.

[Outer Sparta]

New polls show Greenfield leading Ernst 46-43, Trump beating Biden in Missouri 50-41.

I'm hoping Greenfield wins in Iowa. Ernst hasn't done anything in her mission to "make the big spenders squeal."

[United States of Devonta]

New polls show Greenfield leading Ernst 46-43, Trump beating Biden in Missouri 50-41.

If Democrats manage to take the Iowa senate race, we probably will have a majority in the Senate.

And Trump is critically under-performing in states he won by double-digits in 2016. Missouri won't go blue but it might be closer then 2016.

[Ngelmish]

New polls show Greenfield leading Ernst 46-43, Trump beating Biden in Missouri 50-41.

I'm hoping Greenfield wins in Iowa. Ernst hasn't done anything in her mission to "make the big spenders squeal."

In 2014, when one squinted and craned their neck and it was still possible to envision a more humanistic, more tolerant America, Bruce Braley spoke clumsily and lost because certain voters were turned on by a woman referring to castration as part of a public bid for attention.

We really deserve Iowa.