2020 US General Election Thread VII: Summer of Discontent

[Cisairse]

Trump has rallied here before: NJ-2 and NJ-3 are going to be among the most contested House seats this cycle (they were both Democratic flips in '18; NJ-3 had been a GOP hold since 2010 and they only lost it due to mail-in ballots. NJ-2's Democratic usurper has since switched to the GOP, where he faces an uphill battle for re-election).

Who the fuck wins as Democrat in this era then switches to GOP in this time? Seems dumb.

People who only care about power.

Rep. Van Drew was sitting in a technically red seat. I'm sure a focus group told him that he's more likely to win re-election as a Republican than as a Democrat. He switched parties when Impeachment happened (voted No on both charges as a Democrat, then switched parties days later).

[The Archregimancy]

Now what's this I'm hearing about Lindsey Graham and male prostitutes?

Is there the slightly shred of evidence to suggest that Mr Graham is using male escorts, or is this just a case of throwing ludicrous mud at a wall and hoping some of it sticks?

[Cisairse]

Biden’s VP list narrows.

Currently there are only 6 serious candidates, 3 of which we know: Warren, Harris, and Rice. The rest remains a mystery though it still remains somewhat fluid. Klobuchar's chances have all but dropped.

To add to this, the NYT has more information it seems:

Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s advisers have conducted several rounds of interviews with a select group of vice-presidential candidates and are beginning to gather private documents from some of them, as they attempt to winnow a field that features the most diverse set of vice-presidential contenders in history.

The search committee has been in touch with roughly a dozen women, and some eight or nine are already being vetted more intensively.

Among that group are two contenders who have recently grown in prominence, Representative Val Demings of Florida and Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms of Atlanta. One well-known candidate, Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, has lost her perch as a front-runner. And some lower-profile candidates, like Senator Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, are advancing steadily in the search process.

The New York Times spoke to an array of people who are familiar with the vice-presidential search and the activities of the Biden team, and the interviews yielded the fullest picture yet of the list of candidates Mr. Biden is considering, who is advancing and who may be fading, and the dynamics at play.

Mr. Biden’s vice-presidential search has taken a bifurcated course so far, with one path unfolding in the open — joint appearances on television or in virtual events with potential running mates — and another in an environment of strict discretion. People involved in the confidential part described it on condition of anonymity, because they were not authorized to discuss a process that is designed to shield Mr. Biden’s thinking and the participants’ privacy.

Some of the contenders who have advanced furthest in the process are well known, including Senators Kamala Harris of California and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. But The Times confirmed that several other women — whose names have been repeatedly floated but who have not publicly confirmed that they agreed to be vetted for the job — are under active consideration as well.

Ms. Harris and Ms. Warren have been interviewed at length by Mr. Biden’s team, as has Ms. Baldwin, who was the first openly gay candidate ever elected to the Senate.

Two women with distinctive national-defense credentials have also been interviewed and asked for documents: Senator Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, an Iraq war combat veteran who is Asian-American, and Susan Rice, the former national security adviser to President Barack Obama and the first black woman to serve as ambassador to the United Nations.

As the vetting process advances to a newly intense phase, the political currents of the last few weeks are also leaving a mark on the Biden team’s deliberations. The wave of demonstrations touched off by the killing in Minneapolis of George Floyd, a black man, at the hands of a white police officer there, has elevated a pair of black women long regarded as intriguing long-shot candidates: Ms. Demings and Ms. Bottoms.

Though Ms. Demings and Ms. Bottoms are far less known to the national electorate than other figures on Mr. Biden’s list, they have played crucial roles in a cascading civil rights crisis: Ms. Demings, a former police chief in Orlando, Fla., has become a major figure in the law-enforcement debate, while Ms. Bottoms’s handling of chaotic demonstrations in her city earned her national acclaim.

Both women have spoken with the vetting team, and Biden advisers have reached out to their allies to seek information about them.

Representative Charlie Crist of Florida, a supporter of Ms. Demings, said he had recently spoken about her with former Senator Christopher J. Dodd, a member of Mr. Biden’s search committee. Mr. Crist — a former Republican who was vetted for vice president by John McCain in 2008 — predicted that if Mr. Biden made Ms. Demings his running mate, it would lock down Florida and its 29 Electoral College votes.

“She is ready for the task,” Mr. Crist said of Ms. Demings, adding, “It would make a huge difference if you actually had a Floridian on the ticket.”

Mr. Biden insisted in an interview with CBS this past week that the last few tumultuous weeks had not meaningfully changed his thinking about the vice presidency, except to put “greater focus and urgency on the need to get someone who is totally simpatico with where I am.”

“I want someone strong,” he said, “and someone who is ready to be president on Day 1.”

Representative Dina Titus of Nevada, a prominent early supporter of Mr. Biden, counseled him to not be caught up in a momentary news cycle but rather make a sober-minded governing choice, someone to help him steer through turbulent years ahead.

“He needs to pick somebody who’s serious, respected and has some policy chops,” Ms. Titus said, “not just somebody who’s a personality.”

Several state executives have also had conversations with members of the vetting team, including Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, who clashed with President Trump over his handling of the coronavirus, and Gov. Gina Raimondo of Rhode Island, a leader of her party’s centrist wing. Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico, a former chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, is one of the candidates from whom Biden advisers have requested private documents, a signal that she is regarded as a serious contender.

It is not clear precisely where Stacey Abrams, the former Georgia candidate for governor, stands in the process. In an appearance Wednesday on Stephen Colbert’s CBS show, Ms. Abrams appeared to say she had not been contacted by the search committee, though several people insisted she was still in the mix.

Ms. Harris, who was already a leading prospect, appears to have lifted herself further in recent weeks with her advocacy for policing reform. But three Democrats in regular contact with top Biden officials said they still frequently expressed unease about Ms. Harris because of her rocky turn as a presidential candidate and her blistering attack on Mr. Biden in the first debate last year.

Ms. Klobuchar is also still under consideration, but she has receded amid criticism that she did not take on police misconduct as a district attorney in Hennepin County, home to Minneapolis. That may leave Ms. Warren as the most formidable white candidate in the running, in large part because of her popularity with liberals and her credibility as a messenger on the economy.

Mr. Biden’s decision has taken on outsize importance as the country faces an overlapping set of crises that are all but certain to last beyond Inauguration Day.

At 77, Mr. Biden would be the oldest person ever elected to the White House, a distinction with actuarial implications that cannot be discounted. A moderate white man in a party fueled by the political energy of women, young liberals and people of color, Mr. Biden is facing demands from numerous quarters to complete his ticket with someone who represents racial, geographic, generational or ideological balance — imperatives that no one running mate could satisfy in full.

If Mr. Biden wins the November election, he might well take office under the darkest conditions of any president in half a century, with economic stagnation and a deadly pandemic shadowing his new administration.

That unsettling reality has bolstered the view among many Democrats that Mr. Biden must choose a running mate who could be a full partner in governing rather than someone who is useful chiefly for tactical purposes in an election season.

The selection process by now has become so delicate that some of Mr. Biden’s senior aides are stepping gingerly. Steve Ricchetti, one of Mr. Biden’s closest advisers, has told people he is trying to avoid contact with any of the prospects because he does not want to be seen as tipping his hand.

The fact that someone has been interviewed for vice president does not necessarily mean she is among the top candidates, and it is somewhat customary for presidential candidates to put a few close allies on their short list as a kind of reward for their support. People briefed on the search also said it would be premature to assume anyone has been eliminated as a candidate simply because she may not have moved as far in the process as others.

Jennifer Palmieri, who advised Hillary Clinton during her 2016 hunt for a running mate, said it made sense for the search committee to screen a large number of candidates to give Mr. Biden flexibility in his decision. The search, she said, should function “outside of the day-to-day political ecosystem” that thrives on fleeting conventional wisdom.

“Their job is to give Biden as many qualified options as possible,” Ms. Palmieri said. “Somebody who does not make a lot of sense in June can make a great pick on Aug. 1.”

The search process has been carried out by a selection committee staffed by a team of lawyers and led by four close allies of Mr. Biden: Mr. Dodd, Representative Lisa Blunt Rochester of Delaware, Mayor Eric Garcetti of Los Angeles and Cynthia Hogan, Mr. Biden’s counsel when he was vice president himself.

The process has unfolded in several stages, according to people familiar with the search. In April and May, advisers to Mr. Biden contacted more than a dozen Democratic women to ask whether they would be willing to be vetted for the vice presidency. Nearly everyone approached answered in the affirmative; a notable exception was Senator Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, who is running for re-election this year and declined to join a time-consuming vetting process that she believed was highly unlikely to end in her selection.

A second senator, Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, did not immediately rebuff the Biden team but removed herself from consideration late last month. Senator Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire also agreed to be vetted, but she has not been actively pursuing the job and is not seen as a major candidate.

For those who agreed to move ahead, the next step was interviewing with members of Mr. Biden’s screening committee. Those sessions involved a range of broad questions concerning the role of the vice presidency and the policy challenges facing a potential Biden administration, as well as aspects of the candidates’ public records.

Only in recent days has the process moved toward more intrusive scrutiny of the candidates’ sensitive private matters.

That stage of the process may be especially important for candidates like Ms. Bottoms and Ms. Demings, who have not undergone the kind of public examination that other women, like Ms. Harris and Ms. Warren, endured as presidential candidates.

While Ms. Demings could help Mr. Biden in Florida, a similar argument could apply to Ms. Bottoms, given Georgia’s status as an emerging political battleground. As mayor, she has managed the coronavirus response in the Southern metropolis and has regularly criticized Mr. Trump’s rhetoric about reopening states.

Some of Ms. Bottoms’s fellow city leaders are enthusiastic about the idea of a mayor on the ticket. “She’d be strong and is very popular amongst her colleagues,” said Mayor Steve Benjamin of Columbia, S.C.

Mr. Benjamin, a former president of the U.S. Conference of Mayors, said he had shared his high opinion of Ms. Bottoms with the Biden camp.

Edit: Basically, the summary is that there are 8-10 serious contenders with the likes of Demings and Bottoms getting a closer look, Sen. Baldwin steadily progressing through the process, Harris and Warren are the furthest, and Duckworth and Rice have been interviewed by the VP Committee and have been asked for more documents. Klobuchar's standing continues to fade.

So based on the Times interviews, here's the list (no order):

1. Warren
2. Harris
3. Bottoms
4. Demings
5. Rice
6. Grisham
7. Duckworth
8. Baldwin
9. Whitmer
10. Raimondo

Baldwin has publicly stated that she declined the position after Biden's team approached her.

If we go by Tim Kaine's precedent, that means that Baldwin will be the VP pick.

[Cisairse]

I vaguely remember reading somewhere there is an effort to amend the state constitution to move the governor election and other statewide offices to presidential years

It would make sense. There's only a couple of states that have shit on odd off years.

My state is one of them, and I think it's great.

Although I really don't like it when my state has special elections for a Senate seat like two weeks before the gubernatorial election.

If the dems can’t win a Wisconsin senate election there’s no way they can elect a president anyway

That's not exactly true, state wide legislative elections dont always translate into Presidential results.

That being said, I could easily see a map where Biden wins back Pennsylvania, Michigan, but loses Wisconsin. Wisconsin is the most conservative of the upper Midwest states, and has been growing more so in the last few cycles.

Were it to vote for the GOP in the general, Biden could easily counteract the loss by winning a state such as Arizona, which, frankly, has more promising demographics for the Democrats of the future than many Midwestern states.

Of course, none of that matters when Biden wins Texas and North Carolina.

[Outer Sparta]

Now what's this I'm hearing about Lindsey Graham and male prostitutes?

Is there the slightly shred of evidence to suggest that Mr Graham is using male escorts, or is this just a case of throwing ludicrous mud at a wall and hoping some of it sticks?

If it is true, I don't really give many shits about it, though Graham is one of the shadiest GOP senators and used to hate Trump before kowtowing to him 24/7.

[Cisairse]

Not at all. The only hard requirement is that the VP will be a woman, and two of the six on the short list are white.

In this environment I think the odds have been tipped a little, no?

The problem with this line of thinking is that in general the white women on the list (Warren & Baldwin, mainly) have more experience and are more commonly liked than most of the black women on the list, all of which either haven't won a statewide election yet or are Kamala Harris, who is strongly disliked by black voters in general.

I never said they shouldnt try.

No but as I explained earlier, there are many states where a Democrat winning in the Senate is less likely than it is in Wisconsin. And if you do not believe that risking the Wisconsin Senate seat is worth getting someone as great as Baldwin in the White House, then the logical extension if that is that most VP picks will come from safe seats.

Obama and Biden were both safe-as-can-be seats. Hell even Tim Kaine's seat was pretty safe.

Honestly the fact that we lost John Edwards's seat means that the party probably should only pull VP picks from safe seats.

Now what's this I'm hearing about Lindsey Graham and male prostitutes?

Is there the slightly shred of evidence to suggest that Mr Graham is using male escorts, or is this just a case of throwing ludicrous mud at a wall and hoping some of it sticks?

I believe the accusations actually happened, but it's impossible to say if they are true or untrue at this point.

[Outer Sparta]

In this environment I think the odds have been tipped a little, no?

The problem with this line of thinking is that in general the white women on the list (Warren & Baldwin, mainly) have more experience and are more commonly liked than most of the black women on the list, all of which either haven't won a statewide election yet or are Kamala Harris, who is strongly disliked by black voters in general.

Warren's also been polling the best with both white and black voters as the preferred VP pick amongst Democrats.

[Cisairse]

The problem with this line of thinking is that in general the white women on the list (Warren & Baldwin, mainly) have more experience and are more commonly liked than most of the black women on the list, all of which either haven't won a statewide election yet or are Kamala Harris, who is strongly disliked by black voters in general.

Warren's also been polling the best with both white and black voters as the preferred VP pick amongst Democrats.

She also polls the best among me, which I personally feel is important.

[South Odreria 2]

To add to this, the NYT has more information it seems:

Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s advisers have conducted several rounds of interviews with a select group of vice-presidential candidates and are beginning to gather private documents from some of them, as they attempt to winnow a field that features the most diverse set of vice-presidential contenders in history.
Baldwin said yesterday she would say yes
The search committee has been in touch with roughly a dozen women, and some eight or nine are already being vetted more intensively.

Among that group are two contenders who have recently grown in prominence, Representative Val Demings of Florida and Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms of Atlanta. One well-known candidate, Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, has lost her perch as a front-runner. And some lower-profile candidates, like Senator Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, are advancing steadily in the search process.

The New York Times spoke to an array of people who are familiar with the vice-presidential search and the activities of the Biden team, and the interviews yielded the fullest picture yet of the list of candidates Mr. Biden is considering, who is advancing and who may be fading, and the dynamics at play.

Mr. Biden’s vice-presidential search has taken a bifurcated course so far, with one path unfolding in the open — joint appearances on television or in virtual events with potential running mates — and another in an environment of strict discretion. People involved in the confidential part described it on condition of anonymity, because they were not authorized to discuss a process that is designed to shield Mr. Biden’s thinking and the participants’ privacy.

Some of the contenders who have advanced furthest in the process are well known, including Senators Kamala Harris of California and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. But The Times confirmed that several other women — whose names have been repeatedly floated but who have not publicly confirmed that they agreed to be vetted for the job — are under active consideration as well.

Ms. Harris and Ms. Warren have been interviewed at length by Mr. Biden’s team, as has Ms. Baldwin, who was the first openly gay candidate ever elected to the Senate.

Two women with distinctive national-defense credentials have also been interviewed and asked for documents: Senator Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, an Iraq war combat veteran who is Asian-American, and Susan Rice, the former national security adviser to President Barack Obama and the first black woman to serve as ambassador to the United Nations.

As the vetting process advances to a newly intense phase, the political currents of the last few weeks are also leaving a mark on the Biden team’s deliberations. The wave of demonstrations touched off by the killing in Minneapolis of George Floyd, a black man, at the hands of a white police officer there, has elevated a pair of black women long regarded as intriguing long-shot candidates: Ms. Demings and Ms. Bottoms.

Though Ms. Demings and Ms. Bottoms are far less known to the national electorate than other figures on Mr. Biden’s list, they have played crucial roles in a cascading civil rights crisis: Ms. Demings, a former police chief in Orlando, Fla., has become a major figure in the law-enforcement debate, while Ms. Bottoms’s handling of chaotic demonstrations in her city earned her national acclaim.

Both women have spoken with the vetting team, and Biden advisers have reached out to their allies to seek information about them.

Representative Charlie Crist of Florida, a supporter of Ms. Demings, said he had recently spoken about her with former Senator Christopher J. Dodd, a member of Mr. Biden’s search committee. Mr. Crist — a former Republican who was vetted for vice president by John McCain in 2008 — predicted that if Mr. Biden made Ms. Demings his running mate, it would lock down Florida and its 29 Electoral College votes.

“She is ready for the task,” Mr. Crist said of Ms. Demings, adding, “It would make a huge difference if you actually had a Floridian on the ticket.”

Mr. Biden insisted in an interview with CBS this past week that the last few tumultuous weeks had not meaningfully changed his thinking about the vice presidency, except to put “greater focus and urgency on the need to get someone who is totally simpatico with where I am.”

“I want someone strong,” he said, “and someone who is ready to be president on Day 1.”

Representative Dina Titus of Nevada, a prominent early supporter of Mr. Biden, counseled him to not be caught up in a momentary news cycle but rather make a sober-minded governing choice, someone to help him steer through turbulent years ahead.

“He needs to pick somebody who’s serious, respected and has some policy chops,” Ms. Titus said, “not just somebody who’s a personality.”

Several state executives have also had conversations with members of the vetting team, including Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, who clashed with President Trump over his handling of the coronavirus, and Gov. Gina Raimondo of Rhode Island, a leader of her party’s centrist wing. Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico, a former chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, is one of the candidates from whom Biden advisers have requested private documents, a signal that she is regarded as a serious contender.

It is not clear precisely where Stacey Abrams, the former Georgia candidate for governor, stands in the process. In an appearance Wednesday on Stephen Colbert’s CBS show, Ms. Abrams appeared to say she had not been contacted by the search committee, though several people insisted she was still in the mix.

Ms. Harris, who was already a leading prospect, appears to have lifted herself further in recent weeks with her advocacy for policing reform. But three Democrats in regular contact with top Biden officials said they still frequently expressed unease about Ms. Harris because of her rocky turn as a presidential candidate and her blistering attack on Mr. Biden in the first debate last year.

Ms. Klobuchar is also still under consideration, but she has receded amid criticism that she did not take on police misconduct as a district attorney in Hennepin County, home to Minneapolis. That may leave Ms. Warren as the most formidable white candidate in the running, in large part because of her popularity with liberals and her credibility as a messenger on the economy.

Mr. Biden’s decision has taken on outsize importance as the country faces an overlapping set of crises that are all but certain to last beyond Inauguration Day.

At 77, Mr. Biden would be the oldest person ever elected to the White House, a distinction with actuarial implications that cannot be discounted. A moderate white man in a party fueled by the political energy of women, young liberals and people of color, Mr. Biden is facing demands from numerous quarters to complete his ticket with someone who represents racial, geographic, generational or ideological balance — imperatives that no one running mate could satisfy in full.

If Mr. Biden wins the November election, he might well take office under the darkest conditions of any president in half a century, with economic stagnation and a deadly pandemic shadowing his new administration.

That unsettling reality has bolstered the view among many Democrats that Mr. Biden must choose a running mate who could be a full partner in governing rather than someone who is useful chiefly for tactical purposes in an election season.

The selection process by now has become so delicate that some of Mr. Biden’s senior aides are stepping gingerly. Steve Ricchetti, one of Mr. Biden’s closest advisers, has told people he is trying to avoid contact with any of the prospects because he does not want to be seen as tipping his hand.

The fact that someone has been interviewed for vice president does not necessarily mean she is among the top candidates, and it is somewhat customary for presidential candidates to put a few close allies on their short list as a kind of reward for their support. People briefed on the search also said it would be premature to assume anyone has been eliminated as a candidate simply because she may not have moved as far in the process as others.

Jennifer Palmieri, who advised Hillary Clinton during her 2016 hunt for a running mate, said it made sense for the search committee to screen a large number of candidates to give Mr. Biden flexibility in his decision. The search, she said, should function “outside of the day-to-day political ecosystem” that thrives on fleeting conventional wisdom.

“Their job is to give Biden as many qualified options as possible,” Ms. Palmieri said. “Somebody who does not make a lot of sense in June can make a great pick on Aug. 1.”

The search process has been carried out by a selection committee staffed by a team of lawyers and led by four close allies of Mr. Biden: Mr. Dodd, Representative Lisa Blunt Rochester of Delaware, Mayor Eric Garcetti of Los Angeles and Cynthia Hogan, Mr. Biden’s counsel when he was vice president himself.

The process has unfolded in several stages, according to people familiar with the search. In April and May, advisers to Mr. Biden contacted more than a dozen Democratic women to ask whether they would be willing to be vetted for the vice presidency. Nearly everyone approached answered in the affirmative; a notable exception was Senator Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, who is running for re-election this year and declined to join a time-consuming vetting process that she believed was highly unlikely to end in her selection.

A second senator, Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, did not immediately rebuff the Biden team but removed herself from consideration late last month. Senator Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire also agreed to be vetted, but she has not been actively pursuing the job and is not seen as a major candidate.

For those who agreed to move ahead, the next step was interviewing with members of Mr. Biden’s screening committee. Those sessions involved a range of broad questions concerning the role of the vice presidency and the policy challenges facing a potential Biden administration, as well as aspects of the candidates’ public records.

Only in recent days has the process moved toward more intrusive scrutiny of the candidates’ sensitive private matters.

That stage of the process may be especially important for candidates like Ms. Bottoms and Ms. Demings, who have not undergone the kind of public examination that other women, like Ms. Harris and Ms. Warren, endured as presidential candidates.

While Ms. Demings could help Mr. Biden in Florida, a similar argument could apply to Ms. Bottoms, given Georgia’s status as an emerging political battleground. As mayor, she has managed the coronavirus response in the Southern metropolis and has regularly criticized Mr. Trump’s rhetoric about reopening states.

Some of Ms. Bottoms’s fellow city leaders are enthusiastic about the idea of a mayor on the ticket. “She’d be strong and is very popular amongst her colleagues,” said Mayor Steve Benjamin of Columbia, S.C.

Mr. Benjamin, a former president of the U.S. Conference of Mayors, said he had shared his high opinion of Ms. Bottoms with the Biden camp.

Edit: Basically, the summary is that there are 8-10 serious contenders with the likes of Demings and Bottoms getting a closer look, Sen. Baldwin steadily progressing through the process, Harris and Warren are the furthest, and Duckworth and Rice have been interviewed by the VP Committee and have been asked for more documents. Klobuchar's standing continues to fade.

So based on the Times interviews, here's the list (no order):

1. Warren
2. Harris
3. Bottoms
4. Demings
5. Rice
6. Grisham
7. Duckworth
8. Baldwin
9. Whitmer
10. Raimondo

Baldwin has publicly stated that she declined the position after Biden's team approached her.

If we go by Tim Kaine's precedent, that means that Baldwin will be the VP pick.

She said yesterday she would say yes

[Cisairse]

Baldwin has publicly stated that she declined the position after Biden's team approached her.

If we go by Tim Kaine's precedent, that means that Baldwin will be the VP pick.

She said yesterday she would say yes

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit

[United States of Devonta]

She said yesterday she would say yes

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit

I can feel in the air tonight... oh lord.

[South Odreria 2]

She said yesterday she would say yes

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit

I’m fine with either W or B but I would laugh really hard at Warren if it’s Baldwin.

[Jedi Council]

In this environment I think the odds have been tipped a little, no?

The problem with this line of thinking is that in general the white women on the list (Warren & Baldwin, mainly) have more experience and are more commonly liked than most of the black women on the list, all of which either haven't won a statewide election yet or are Kamala Harris, who is strongly disliked by black voters in general.

I am not so sure that is true, Kamala Harris is the first choice of 25% of Black voters, leading the pack of candidates narrowly according to new polling.

The same poll shows Harris' approval moving up, from 40% to 52%.

Not saying she would be the ideal pick, just thinking her unpopularity is a bit overblown.

[Cisairse]

EBO is being dumb, so here's PredictIt's bets for the VP pick:

[Jedi Council]

EBO is being dumb, so here's PredictIt's bets for the VP pick:

(Image)

Why is Hillary even on that list? To trigger Fox News?

[Cisairse]

EBO is being dumb, so here's PredictIt's bets for the VP pick:

(Image)

Why is Hillary even on that list? To trigger Fox News?

Low-information betters, I would assume. This table doesn't include liquidity, so I imagine that Clinton and Obama are being bet at maybe a fraction of a percent of Harris, Demings, Duckworth, etc.

[Cisairse]

The problem with this line of thinking is that in general the white women on the list (Warren & Baldwin, mainly) have more experience and are more commonly liked than most of the black women on the list, all of which either haven't won a statewide election yet or are Kamala Harris, who is strongly disliked by black voters in general.

I am not so sure that is true, Kamala Harris is the first choice of 25% of Black voters, leading the pack of candidates narrowly according to new polling.

The same poll shows Harris' approval moving up, from 40% to 52%.

Not saying she would be the ideal pick, just thinking her unpopularity is a bit overblown.

Hasn't pretty much everyone's popularity risen who ran in the primary but dropped out?

Hillary Clinton's popularity was sky high until she was on a ballot, too. I believe voters judge politicians much more harshly in general when they are asked whether or not to vote for them.

[Outer Sparta]

Why is Hillary even on that list? To trigger Fox News?

Low-information betters, I would assume. This table doesn't include liquidity, so I imagine that Clinton and Obama are being bet at maybe a fraction of a percent of Harris, Demings, Duckworth, etc.

Same with Tulsi Gabbard somehow on that list and Michelle Obama as well.

[Zurkerx]

In this environment I think the odds have been tipped a little, no?

We'll see. I think it'll finally boil down between Baldwin and Demings, putting it at a 50/50 chance. Remember, Biden's walking a pretty high tightrope while a derecho is raging.

I could see Demings but you think Baldwin will be a finalist? Either way, Biden needs to pick someone who he's compatible with. But we'll need to see who his finalists/Top 3 are.

Baldwin has publicly stated that she declined the position after Biden's team approached her.

If we go by Tim Kaine's precedent, that means that Baldwin will be the VP pick.

Wrong. She deferred from answering in the past but I believe she never said "no". If she did, she's changed her mind now.

[Cisairse]

We'll see. I think it'll finally boil down between Baldwin and Demings, putting it at a 50/50 chance. Remember, Biden's walking a pretty high tightrope while a derecho is raging.

I could see Demings but you think Baldwin will be a finalist? Either way, Biden needs to pick someone who he's compatible with. But we'll need to see who his finalists/Top 3 are.

Baldwin has publicly stated that she declined the position after Biden's team approached her.

If we go by Tim Kaine's precedent, that means that Baldwin will be the VP pick.

Wrong. She deferred from answering in the past but I believe she never said "no". If she did, she's changed her mind now.

Interesting.

If Baldwin is still being vetted, there's not much room for the other two slots (according to AP's list).

[Outer Sparta]

I could see Demings but you think Baldwin will be a finalist? Either way, Biden needs to pick someone who he's compatible with. But we'll need to see who his finalists/Top 3 are.



Wrong. She deferred from answering in the past but I believe she never said "no". If she did, she's changed her mind now.

Interesting.

If Baldwin is still being vetted, there's not much room for the other two slots (according to AP's list).

I don't really want Baldwin as the VP pick. The WI Senate seat and how I think Warren would be a lot better than her.

[Cisairse]

Interesting.

If Baldwin is still being vetted, there's not much room for the other two slots (according to AP's list).

I don't really want Baldwin as the VP pick. The WI Senate seat and how I think Warren would be a lot better than her.

Oh definitely, Warren is by far my favorite for the slot.
But if it isn't Warren, Baldwin is a lot better than some of the other names being floated.

[Repubblica Fascista Sociale Italiana]

Biden’s VP pick being purely based on the current political climate, and the events of the past two weeks would be a mistake. While it may not seem like it now, I doubt the George Floyd protests will be the main thing on people’s minds in November, considering how quickly the news cycle is changing. Three months ago the only thing people talked about was impeachment, then coronavirus, then protests and riots, so you can expect change

[Cisairse]

Biden’s VP pick being purely based on the current political climate, and the events of the past two weeks would be a mistake. While it may not seem like it now, I doubt the George Floyd protests will be the main thing on people’s minds in November, considering how quickly the news cycle is changing. Three months ago the only thing people talked about was impeachment, then coronavirus, then protests and riots, so you can expect change

While picking a VP specifically because of the protests would be a bad idea, I feel that removing candidates with a history that directly supports what is being protested against from consideration is a good idea. Dems have a chance to make police reform a core part of their message this November, and it would look really bad if someone with a history of abetting police brutality was helping deliver that message.

[Outer Sparta]

Biden’s VP pick being purely based on the current political climate, and the events of the past two weeks would be a mistake. While it may not seem like it now, I doubt the George Floyd protests will be the main thing on people’s minds in November, considering how quickly the news cycle is changing. Three months ago the only thing people talked about was impeachment, then coronavirus, then protests and riots, so you can expect change

While picking a VP specifically because of the protests would be a bad idea, I feel that removing candidates with a history that directly supports what is being protested against from consideration is a good idea. Dems have a chance to make police reform a core part of their message this November, and it would look really bad if someone with a history of abetting police brutality was helping deliver that message.

Such as *cough cough* Klobuchar.