2020 US General Election Thread VII: Summer of Discontent

[Outer Sparta]

The only concern I have with Baldwin is the Wisconsin Senate seat. I mean, Wisconsin is quite a swing state and it would be risky to lose her spot there.

It would be worth the risk in my opinion, especially given that the VP pick for this year is likely to be the Democratic nominee in 2024.

And in any case, while Wisconsin has been pretty swingy for a while, its definitely not a state like West Virginia or Ohio, where removing either if their incumbents (Manchin/Brown) would probably guarantee that the Democrats lose the seat.

Hopefully Dems have a strong bench in place there if Baldwin is the VP nominee. Mandela Barnes comes to mind as a rising star there.

[Shrillland]

I vaguely remember reading somewhere there is an effort to amend the state constitution to move the governor election and other statewide offices to presidential years

It would make sense. There's only a couple of states that have shit on odd off years.

No. It passed the Senate, reached the House Amendments Committee and never went anywhere after that. It's been dead since the legislature went home in April.

[San Lumen]

It would be worth the risk in my opinion, especially given that the VP pick for this year is likely to be the Democratic nominee in 2024.

And in any case, while Wisconsin has been pretty swingy for a while, its definitely not a state like West Virginia or Ohio, where removing either if their incumbents (Manchin/Brown) would probably guarantee that the Democrats lose the seat.

Hopefully Dems have a strong bench in place there if Baldwin is the VP nominee. Mandela Barnes comes to mind as a rising star there.

He would be a very interesting choice to replace Baldwin. Barnes likely helped Evers get high turnout in Milwaukee which is essential to any Democrat winning statewide

[Jedi Council]

If the dems can’t win a Wisconsin senate election there’s no way they can elect a president anyway

That's not exactly true, state wide legislative elections dont always translate into Presidential results.

That being said, I could easily see a map where Biden wins back Pennsylvania, Michigan, but loses Wisconsin. Wisconsin is the most conservative of the upper Midwest states, and has been growing more so in the last few cycles.

Were it to vote for the GOP in the general, Biden could easily counteract the loss by winning a state such as Arizona, which, frankly, has more promising demographics for the Democrats of the future than many Midwestern states.

[San Lumen]

If the dems can’t win a Wisconsin senate election there’s no way they can elect a president anyway

That's not exactly true, state wide legislative elections dont always translate into Presidential results.

That being said, I could easily see a map where Biden wins back Pennsylvania, Michigan, but loses Wisconsin. Wisconsin is the most conservative of the upper Midwest states, and has been growing more so in the last few cycles.

Were it to vote for the GOP in the general, Biden could easily counteract the loss by winning a state such as Arizona, which, frankly, has more promising demographics for the Democrats of the future than many Midwestern states.

North Carolina as well. If there is high turnout in Dane and Milwaukee counties the state will likely flip narrowly. Biden has been consistently polling at around five percent ahead of Trump in the state

[Jedi Council]

It would be worth the risk in my opinion, especially given that the VP pick for this year is likely to be the Democratic nominee in 2024.

And in any case, while Wisconsin has been pretty swingy for a while, its definitely not a state like West Virginia or Ohio, where removing either if their incumbents (Manchin/Brown) would probably guarantee that the Democrats lose the seat.

Risking a Senate seat isn't worth it and Wisconsin requires a special election however the Governor can pick an interim senator who can run in the special

What is one Progressive in the Senate compared to one in the White House? Because if we follow this to its logical conclusion, only people from safe seats will ever try for higher office.

[San Lumen]

Risking a Senate seat isn't worth it and Wisconsin requires a special election however the Governor can pick an interim senator who can run in the special

What is one Progressive in the Senate compared to one in the White House? Because if we follow this to its logical conclusion, only people from safe seats will ever try for higher office.

I never said they shouldnt try.

[Outer Sparta]

If the dems can’t win a Wisconsin senate election there’s no way they can elect a president anyway

That's not exactly true, state wide legislative elections dont always translate into Presidential results.

That being said, I could easily see a map where Biden wins back Pennsylvania, Michigan, but loses Wisconsin. Wisconsin is the most conservative of the upper Midwest states, and has been growing more so in the last few cycles.

Were it to vote for the GOP in the general, Biden could easily counteract the loss by winning a state such as Arizona, which, frankly, has more promising demographics for the Democrats of the future than many Midwestern states.

I've read a WPR article examining whether Wisconsin has turned more into a southern state culturally and even politically (thanks to Scott Walker and co.). It's quite an older one dating back four years ago but is still relevant: https://www.wpr.org/wississippi-reporte ... ern-states

[Jedi Council]

What is one Progressive in the Senate compared to one in the White House? Because if we follow this to its logical conclusion, only people from safe seats will ever try for higher office.

I never said they shouldnt try.

No but as I explained earlier, there are many states where a Democrat winning in the Senate is less likely than it is in Wisconsin. And if you do not believe that risking the Wisconsin Senate seat is worth getting someone as great as Baldwin in the White House, then the logical extension if that is that most VP picks will come from safe seats.

[Valrifell]

What is one Progressive in the Senate compared to one in the White House? Because if we follow this to its logical conclusion, only people from safe seats will ever try for higher office.

I never said they shouldnt try.

You're saying these things implicitly.

[Outer Sparta]

I never said they shouldnt try.

No but as I explained earlier, there are many states where a Democrat winning in the Senate is less likely than it is in Wisconsin. And if you do not believe that risking the Wisconsin Senate seat is worth getting someone as great as Baldwin in the White House, then the logical extension if that is that most VP picks will come from safe seats.

Why not have someone like Warren be VP? Besides, Dems hold a supermajority in the state legislature of Massachusetts and can change the rules to let Gov. Baker chose a Dem.

[Shrillland]

No but as I explained earlier, there are many states where a Democrat winning in the Senate is less likely than it is in Wisconsin. And if you do not believe that risking the Wisconsin Senate seat is worth getting someone as great as Baldwin in the White House, then the logical extension if that is that most VP picks will come from safe seats.

Why not have someone like Warren be VP? Besides, Dems hold a supermajority in the state legislature of Massachusetts and can change the rules to let Gov. Baker chose a Dem.

I don't think Baker would take that chance, to be honest. He's not like most other Republicans, he might choose an independent. It's been done before.

[Jedi Council]

No but as I explained earlier, there are many states where a Democrat winning in the Senate is less likely than it is in Wisconsin. And if you do not believe that risking the Wisconsin Senate seat is worth getting someone as great as Baldwin in the White House, then the logical extension if that is that most VP picks will come from safe seats.

Why not have someone like Warren be VP? Besides, Dems hold a supermajority in the state legislature of Massachusetts and can change the rules to let Gov. Baker chose a Dem.

Well Warren would be a good choice, but she does not have the proven appeal in the Midwest that Baldwin does.

Baldwin is also younger and less divisive, but still quite progressive, with a focus through her tenure on Healthcare, which is almost always a winning issue for Democrats.

I would prefer to see Warren in cabinet anyways.

[Outer Sparta]

Why not have someone like Warren be VP? Besides, Dems hold a supermajority in the state legislature of Massachusetts and can change the rules to let Gov. Baker chose a Dem.

Well Warren would be a good choice, but she does not have the proven appeal in the Midwest that Baldwin does.

Baldwin is also younger and less divisive, but still quite progressive, with a focus through her tenure on Healthcare, which is almost always a winning issue for Democrats.

I would prefer to see Warren in cabinet anyways.

Warren as a Senate Majority Leader would be cool as well (and would be way better than Chuck Schumer) but her expertise and policy would complement well with Biden on the VP ticket.

[San Lumen]

I never said they shouldnt try.

You're saying these things implicitly.

What do you mean?

[Valrifell]

You're saying these things implicitly.

What do you mean?

"Risking a Senate seat isn't worth it" necessarily implies that you don't think anyone in a swingy state serving as a Senator should be tapped as VP.

[Anthony Scaramucci Autonomous Zone]

Excuse me if I'm being ignorant but isn't it pretty clear the VP is going to be a person of color?

[Shrillland]

Excuse me if I'm being ignorant but isn't it pretty clear the VP is going to be a person of color?

Not at all. The only hard requirement is that the VP will be a woman, and two of the six on the short list are white.

[Anthony Scaramucci Autonomous Zone]

Excuse me if I'm being ignorant but isn't it pretty clear the VP is going to be a person of color?

Not at all. The only hard requirement is that the VP will be a woman, and two of the six on the short list are white.

In this environment I think the odds have been tipped a little, no?

[Outer Sparta]

Not at all. The only hard requirement is that the VP will be a woman, and two of the six on the short list are white.

In this environment I think the odds have been tipped a little, no?

Although a black woman would have their chances boosted due to the current political climate, I wouldn't advise picking a black woman just because they are one. Their qualifications and how well the complement the ticket matter as well.

[Shrillland]

Not at all. The only hard requirement is that the VP will be a woman, and two of the six on the short list are white.

In this environment I think the odds have been tipped a little, no?

We'll see. I think it'll finally boil down between Baldwin and Demings, putting it at a 50/50 chance. Remember, Biden's walking a pretty high tightrope while a derecho is raging.

[Outer Sparta]

In this environment I think the odds have been tipped a little, no?

We'll see. I think it'll finally boil down between Baldwin and Demings, putting it at a 50/50 chance. Remember, Biden's walking a pretty high tightrope while a derecho is raging.

I'm just glad Klobuchar's chances have fallen very far. She wouldn't be a good pick at all.

[Anthony Scaramucci Autonomous Zone]

In this environment I think the odds have been tipped a little, no?

Although a black woman would have their chances boosted due to the current political climate, I wouldn't advise picking a black woman just because they are one. Their qualifications and how well the complement the ticket matter as well.

Yea I agree as well. Stacy Abrams's beliefs appear terrible, and I don't want to see her become the VP just because she ran one good campaign. But realistically, I think Biden is going to pick a black woman.

[San Lumen]

In this environment I think the odds have been tipped a little, no?

We'll see. I think it'll finally boil down between Baldwin and Demings, putting it at a 50/50 chance. Remember, Biden's walking a pretty high tightrope while a derecho is raging.

Both would be excellent choices with a preference for Demings

[Outer Sparta]

Although a black woman would have their chances boosted due to the current political climate, I wouldn't advise picking a black woman just because they are one. Their qualifications and how well the complement the ticket matter as well.

Yea I agree as well. Stacy Abrams's beliefs appear terrible, and I don't want to see her become the VP just because she ran one good campaign. But realistically, I think Biden is going to pick a black woman.

Abrams should concentrate in Georgia for the meantime. Demmings should be the most viable pick as a black woman, though her law enforcement background will be more scrutinized.